Carrying Capacity Model Research Articles

Extension Programming In Support of Public Policy For The Management of Aquaculture In Common Water Bodies

Many countries of Asia, including Indonesia, have experienced the problem of hypoxic fish kills among fish in netpens and fish corrals in various publicly-held water bodies. Fish farming in enclosures in public water bodies attractive because of low overhead costs in comparison to farming the identical species in constructed ponds. But aerobic bacterial degradation of feed and fish feces in common waters can lead to oxygen depletion, thus causing fish kills. Mass-balance and ecological carrying capacity models and education through and extension programming can be used to inform policy makers as to the maximum biomass of farmed fish allowable before risking hypoxia. Economic modeling of social costs and lost revenue in fish kills can also be used to inform and refine public policies. Tools for managing aquaculture carrying capacity might include managing demand for permits by increasing fees, holding auctions for fixed numbers of permits, or using a system of capping, developing offset charges for finfish effluents, and trading of rights to discharge. In this system, holders of finfish netpen permits would pay an offset to nearby aquafarmers conducting nutrient extractive forms of aquaculture (e.g. bivalve or seaweed farming), thus making often desired Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture (IMTA) systems more economically viable. The important work of translating recommendations from environmental and economic modeling into practical public policy and management practice requires a considerable effort in extension programming and ongoing exchange among the scientific, industry, regulatory and policy-making communities.

Determination of foraging thresholds and effects of application on energetic carrying capacity for waterfowl.

Energetic carrying capacity of habitats for wildlife is a fundamental concept used to better understand population ecology and prioritize conservation efforts. However, carrying capacity can be difficult to estimate accurately and simplified models often depend on many assumptions and few estimated parameters. We demonstrate the complex nature of parameterizing energetic carrying capacity models and use an experimental approach to describe a necessary parameter, a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which animals no longer can efficiently forage and acquire energy), for a guild of migratory birds. We created foraging patches with different fixed prey densities and monitored the numerical and behavioral responses of waterfowl (Anatidae) and depletion of foods during winter. Dabbling ducks (Anatini) fed extensively in plots and all initial densities of supplemented seed were rapidly reduced to 10 kg/ha and other natural seeds and tubers combined to 170 kg/ha, despite different starting densities. However, ducks did not abandon or stop foraging in wetlands when seed reduction ceased approximately two weeks into the winter-long experiment nor did they consistently distribute according to ideal-free predictions during this period. Dabbling duck use of experimental plots was not related to initial seed density, and residual seed and tuber densities varied among plant taxa and wetlands but not plots. Herein, we reached several conclusions: 1) foraging effort and numerical responses of dabbling ducks in winter were likely influenced by factors other than total food densities (e.g., predation risk, opportunity costs, forager condition), 2) foraging thresholds may vary among foraging locations, and 3) the numerical response of dabbling ducks may be an inconsistent predictor of habitat quality relative to seed and tuber density. We describe implications on habitat conservation objectives of using different foraging thresholds in energetic carrying capacity models and suggest scientists reevaluate assumptions of these models used to guide habitat conservation.

塔里木河流域相对资源承载力研究

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 塔里木河流域相对资源承载力 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201309132265 作者: 作者单位: 广州地理研究所,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,福建省城乡规划设计研究院,新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委员会经济研究院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 中国科学院部署项目子课题(KZZD-EW-06-03-03) Analysis of relative carrying capacity of resources in Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang Author: Affiliation: Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:基于改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000-2011年塔里木河流域的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,并探讨塔河流域42个县市相对资源承载力的演变规律及空间差异。研究表明:(1)改进的相对资源承载力模型具有一定的研究价值,对于拓宽相对资源承载力评价模型的应用具有实践意义。(2)以新疆为参照区,塔河流域2000-2011年处于人口严重超载、经济非常富余或富余阶段。(3)与全疆相比,土地资源是塔河流域的相对优势资源,水资源是制约塔河流域人口、经济发展的相对劣势资源。(4)以塔河流域为参照区,流域内42个县市的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力的空间差异显著。(4)依据相对资源人口、经济承载力的超载、富余状态将塔河流域42县市归为A、B、C、D 4种资源承载力匹配区,并总结其时序演变特点和发展策略。 Abstract:A country's natural resources and economic resources form the basis of its regional sustainable development. Based on an improved model of the relative carrying capacity of resources, we calculate the relative carrying capacity of the population and that of the economy in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2011. We also discuss the temporal evolution and the difference in characteristics of 42 prefectures and cities in the Tarim River Basin. Most of the data were collected from the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook (2000 to 2012), the Xinjiang City County Building Statistical Yearbook (2000 to 2011), and the Xinjiang Water Resources Bulletin (2000 to 2011). The Tarim River Basin is China's largest inland river basin, and is located in an arid area with a fragile ecological environment, poor local water resources, and a limited oasis area. In recent years, population growth, industrial development, and urbanization have accelerated the disparity between the supply and demand of land and water resources in the Tarim River Basin. The implications from this study are as follows: (1) The improved model of the relative carrying capacity of resources has a certain practical value in optimizing the relative carrying capacity of resources evaluation model. (2) In comparison with Xinjiang, the Tarim River Basin can be characterized as an overpopulated area with a surplus economy from 2000 to 2011. (3) Compared with Xinjiang, land resources are relatively plentiful in the Tarim River Basin, but water resources are relatively scarce, which restricts the population and economic development. Economic development relies on traditional agricultural production in the Tarim River Basin. Thus, in the Tarim River Basin, while land is a relatively advantageous resource, water can be considered as a relatively disadvantageous resource. In future, a more concerted effort needs to be made to improve the efficient use of water resources in the area, as well as to exploit the comparative advantage offered by the relatively abundant land resources. (4) The 42 prefectures and cities in the Tarim River Basin display significant spatial differences in terms of the relative carrying capacity of the population and the economy. Significant differences are also found between the sub-river basins in terms of these factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area. (5) Based on the relative carrying capacity of the population and the economy, we classify the 42 prefectures and cities in the Tarim River Basin into four groups, and then summarize the evolution of each group's temporal characteristics and development strategies. After nearly 12 years of development and evolution, the relative carrying capacity of the population and the economy in the Tarim River Basin are still highly unbalanced in terms of the area's spatial pattern and distribution. The counties and cities in group B, which have a relatively insufficient economic scale, should become the key development areas in the Tarim River Basin. In contrast, the counties and cities in group C, which are relatively saturated in terms of their economic scale, but have a relatively small population, should become optimized development areas. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Capturing the Driving Role of Tumor-Host Crosstalk in a Dynamical Model of Tumor Growth.

In 1999, Hahnfeldt et al. proposed a mathematical model for tumor growth as dictated by reciprocal communications between tumor and its associated vasculature, introducing the idea that a tumor is supported by a dynamic, rather than a static, carrying capacity. In this original paper, the carrying capacity was equated with the variable tumor vascular support resulting from the net effect of tumor-derived angiogenesis stimulators and inhibitors. This dynamic carrying capacity model was further abstracted and developed in our recent publication to depict the more general situation where there is an interaction between the tumor and its supportive host tissue; in that case, as a function of host aging (Benzekry et al., 2014). This allowed us to predict a range of host changes that may be occurring with age that impact tumor dynamics. More generally, the basic formalism described here can be (and has been), extended to the therapeutic context using additional optimization criteria (Hahnfeldt et al., 1999). The model depends on three parameters: One for the tumor cell proliferation kinetics, one for the stimulation of the stromal support, and one for its inhibition, as well as two initial conditions. We describe here the numerical method to estimate these parameters from longitudinal tumor volume measurements.

The construction and application of a carrying capacity evaluation model in a national park

This work applies ecological footprint analysis to establish the framework of a carrying capacity model for a national park. The model estimates changes in ecological footprint and biocapacity indicators for Taroko National Park (Taiwan) from 2002 to 2011. The findings indicate that: (1) In the past 10 years, the biocapacity status of Taroko National Park has remained within the environmental capacity; however, the per-capita ecological reserve decreased by 73.38 % between 2002 and 2011, from 0.085010 global hectares to 0.022633 global hectares. Evaluation of the ecological footprint intensity index reveals that the park has maintained a level 1 status, the highest ecological security level; (2) Linear estimation undertaken in the study predicts that when the ecological footprint intensity index reaches 0.5—when the ecological security level falls from level 1 (good) to level 2 (fair)—the critical tourist-carrying capacity would be 3,380,351 visitors per year, or 1.18 times the number of tourists in 2011. Furthermore, when the ecological footprint intensity index reaches 0.8—when the ecological security falls to level 3 (poor)—the critical tourist-carrying capacity would be 5,408,561 visitors per year, or 1.88 times the number of tourists in 2011. This work adopted the ecological footprint method and the threshold ecological footprint intensity index value to estimate the critical number of tourists for the sustainable biocapacity of Taroko National Park. The results are intended to serve as a reference for national park administrators to develop policies on tourist carrying capacity.

Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process

In this study, system dynamics (SD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were combined to establish an evaluation index system and a system dynamics simulation model for the regional water ecological carrying capacity (WECC). Six proposed planning schemes were used to address the existing water ecological environment problems in the Siping area of Jilin Province, China. The development trends in the WECC during the years 2008–2020 were simulated and evaluated under different planning schemes. The results showed that the water ecological environment in the Siping area would develop into a “poor carrying” state in 2020 with a WECC index of 0.1819 if current social development modes remain unchanged. However, a “good carrying” state with a corresponding WECC index of 0.6652 could be achieved in 2020 if the 5th scheme is applied, which is an integrated planning scheme that combines changes in water-saving, pollution control, water resource exploitation and economic development. The results of this study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of the social economy and the water eco-environment in the Siping area.

Modelo de evaluación de la capacidad de acogida del territorio con SIG y técnicas de decisión multicriterio respecto a la implantación de edificaciones en espacios rurales

Se muestra un método, que apoyado en propuestas científicas, ayuda en la planificación del uso sostenible del territorio. Dicho método se basa en los modelos de evaluación de la capacidad de acogida del territorio. Su fundamento es el desarrollo de una metodología de evaluación con una perspectiva amplia de la sostenibilidad rural y contempla la necesaria puesta en valor de los recursos naturales, la preservación del medio por su calidad ambiental y la minimización de los riesgos naturales. Con él se evaluará la implantación de edificaciones relacionadas con el proceso de urbanización difusa en los espacios rurales. Para ello se aborda la evaluación de las condiciones particulares del medio rural en orden a la mejor estimación de sus posibilidades y de su vulnerabilidad respecto a los riesgos naturales. Como resultado se ha realizado una evaluación basada en juicios de valor claramente definidos y en atributos concretos del territorio. Mediante este proceso se obtiene una capa de información que muestra una clasificación del espacio estudiado con una valoración asignada a cada parte del territorio en función de su capacidad para acoger los usos que han sido evaluados.

Thermal Carrying Capacity for a Thermally-Sensitive Species at the Warmest Edge of Its Range

Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta) living along a temperature gradient at the warmest thermal edge of its range. We developed a carrying capacity model in which maximum population size is limited by physical habitat conditions and regulated through territoriality. We first tested whether population numbers were driven by carrying capacity dynamics and then targeted on establishing (1) the temperature thresholds beyond which population numbers switch from being physical habitat- to temperature-limited; and (2) the rate at which carrying capacity declines with temperature within limiting thermal ranges. Carrying capacity along with emergent density-dependent responses explained up to 76% of spatio-temporal density variability of juveniles and adults but only 50% of young-of-the-year's. By contrast, young-of-the-year trout were highly sensitive to thermal conditions, their performance declining with temperature at a higher rate than older life stages, and disruptions being triggered at lower temperature thresholds. Results suggest that limiting temperature effects were progressively stronger with increasing anthropogenic disturbance. There was however a critical threshold, matching the incipient thermal limit for survival, beyond which realized density was always below potential numbers irrespective of disturbance intensity. We additionally found a lower threshold, matching the thermal limit for feeding, beyond which even unaltered populations declined. We predict that most of our study populations may become extinct by 2100, depicting the gloomy fate of thermally-sensitive species occurring at thermal range margins under limited potential for adaptation and dispersal.

The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model: An Australian case study

Carrying capacity assessments model a population's potential self-sufficiency. A crucial first step in the development of such modelling is to examine the basic resource-based parameters defining the population's production and consumption habits. These parameters include basic human needs such as food, water, shelter and energy together with climatic, environmental and behavioural characteristics. Each of these parameters imparts land-usage requirements in different ways and varied degrees so their incorporation into carrying capacity modelling also differs. Given that the availability and values of production parameters may differ between locations, no two carrying capacity models are likely to be exactly alike. However, the essential parameters themselves can remain consistent so one example, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, is offered as a case study to highlight one way in which these parameters are utilised. While examples exist of findings made from carrying capacity assessment modelling, to date, guidelines for replication of such studies in other regions and scales have largely been overlooked. This paper addresses such shortcomings by describing a process for the inclusion and calibration of the most important resource-based parameters in a way that could be repeated elsewhere.

CARRYING CAPACITY MODEL APPLIED IN COASTAL DESTINATIONS

A large number of studies have been carried out on the social carrying capacity of tourists regions. Most of these studies have examined protected natural areas, the best known being Shelby and Heberlein’s study. The research aim of this paper is to adapt the social carrying capacity model to a mature coastal destination, Costa del Sol. The empirical findings provide an indicator that allows us to establish the proportion of tourists who perceive overcrowding and are predisposed to leave. A cluster analysis was performed to better understand how overcrowding is perceived by tourists, the socioeconomic characteristics of tourists and the factors that may influence the capacity thresholds. The generating data will allow a scientific debate on the overcrowding problems and the growth limits.

Fifty years to prove Malthus right

A major question confronting sustainability research today is to what extent our planet, with a finite environmental resource base, can accommodate the faster than exponentially growing human population. Although these concerns are generally attributed to Malthus (1766–1834), early attempts to estimate the maximum sustainable population (ergo, the carrying capacity K) were reported by van Leeuwenhoek (1632–1723) to be at 13 billion people (1). Since then, the concept of carrying capacity has evolved to accommodate many resource limitations originating from available water, energy, and other ecosystem goods and services (1, 2). In PNAS, Suweis et al. (3) apply the concept of carrying capacity using fresh water availability on a national scale as the limiting resource to infer the global K. They estimate a decline in global human population by the middle of this century. We ask to what extent models that are premised on a constant global K as in Suweis et al. (3) agree with an alternative class of carrying capacity models on predicting the timing for unsustainable global population growth. In particular, factors that symbolize innovation and adaptation lead to K representations that are not constant (4, 5) but may depend on a dynamic population size.

The effect of surface texturing on reducing the friction and wear of steel under lubricated sliding contact

Surface texturing is a widely used approach to improve the load capacity, the wear resistance, and the friction coefficient of tribological mechanical components. This study experimentally investigates the effect of surface texturing on reducing friction and wear. A numerical model of the load carrying capacity of multi-dimples is developed to analyze the relevant mechanism, and the effect of surface texturing on different dimple area fractions is evaluated to determine the optimal dimple pattern. The results show that surface texturing is important for reducing friction and wear. Changes in dimple area fraction can dramatically reduce friction and wear. The results indicate a 5% optimal dimple area fraction can generate the greatest hydrodynamic pressure compared with other fractions and can reduce friction and wear up to 38% and 72%, respectively. The theoretical model and the experimental results are found to be closely correlated. The generation of hydrodynamic pressure, the function of micro-trap for wear debris and the micro-reservoirs for lubricant retention are the main causes for the reduction in the friction and wear of the surface texturing.

Analysis and Assessment of the Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Model

Analysis and Assessment of the Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Model

Regional differences and convergence of resources carrying capacity: a comparison of nine provinces and municipalities in China

This paper applies an improved resources carrying capacity model established by Huang and He (2012), and estimates a single and composite resources carrying capacity, and uses sigma convergence, beta convergence and club convergence to investigate the dynamics of resources carrying capacity in nine provinces and municipalities in China from 1978 to 2008. Our results show that there exists time domain and regional characteristics in sigma convergence and club convergence of carrying capacity in China. But, the growth of carrying capacity of nine provinces and municipalities in China is beta absolute convergence.

The Assessment of Island-Type Urban Ecosystem Based on the Environmental Carrying Capacity Model - A Case Study of Shanghai's ChongMing Island

The island-type urban ecosystem is facing enormous pressures due to its special geographical location and spatial integrity. This paper uses Shanghai's ChongMing Island as an area of study and selects the Yangtze River tunnel-bridge, and the Shanghai World EXPO as driving factors for the urban ecosystem. This will be based on the time-spatial urban ecosystem carrying capacity assessment model in order to study the impact of human activities on the island-type environment. The paper will subsequently identify the limiting factors of the ChongMing urban ecosystem. The results show that the water ecosystem in ChongMing is presently in good condition. From 2004 to 2011, the traffic carrying capacity has apparently been alleviated. Much of the traffic onto the island has changed from ferry boat traffic to tunnel-bridge transportation. The tunnel-bridge carrying capacity has been gradually decompressed after the Shanghai World EXPO, and has basically met the needs of the people. Despite this, the influx of tourists in 2010 made urban environmental problems more prevalent, especially the treatment of solid waste, which is now the biggest obstacle to natural environmental protection on ChongMing Island.

Coupled logistic carrying capacity model

This study proposes a coupled nonlinear system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its time varying environment. The model eliminates the need for a priori knowledge of the environmental carrying capacity or constraints to be placed upon the initial conditions. Analysis and computer simulations are presented to illustrate the system's dynamical behaviour. References R. B. Banks. Some Basic Frameworks. In F. John, J. E. Marsden, L. Sirovich, M. Golubitsky and W. Jager (Eds.). Growth and Diffusion Phenomena:Mathematical Frameworks and Applications, {5--6, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 1994.} S. Ikeda and T. Yokoi. {Fish population dynamics under nutrient enrichment---A case of the {E}ast {S}eto Inland Sea.} Ecological Modelling, 10, 141--165, 1980. doi:10.1016/0304-3800(80)90057-5 C. V. Trappey and H. Y. Wu. {An evaluation of the time--varying extended logistic, simple logistic, and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles.} Advanced Engineering Informatics, 22, 421--430, 2008. doi:10.1016/j.aei.2008.05.007 S. P. Rogovchenko and Y. V. Rogovchenko. {Effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the {P}earl-{V}erhulst model.} Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 39, 1169--1181, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2007.11.002 H. Safuan, I. N. Towers, Z. Jovanoski and H. S. Sidhu. {A simple model for the total microbial biomass under occlusion of healthy human skin.} {In Chan, F., Marinova, D. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand., 733--739, 2011.} P. Meyer. {Bi-logistic Growth.} Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 47, 89--102, 1994. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(94)90042-6 P. Meyer and J. H. Ausubel. {Carrying Capacity: {A} Model with Logistically Varying Limits.} Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 61, 209--214, 1999. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00022-0 R. Huzimura and T. Matsuyama. {A mathematical model with a modified logistic approach for singly peaked population processes.} Theoretical Population Biology, 56, 301--306, 1999. doi:10.1006/tpbi.1999.1426 J. H. M. Thornley and J. France. {An open-ended logistic-based growth function.} Ecological Modelling, 184, 257--261, 2005. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.10.007 J. H. M. Thornley, J. J. Shepherd and J. France. {An open-ended logistic-based growth function: Analytical solutions and the power-law logistic model.} Ecological Modelling, 204, 531--534, 2007. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.12.026

Modelos de capacidade de suporte de carga de um Latossolo Vermelho-amarelo sob diferentes usos e manejos

A compactação do solo tem sido apontada como um dos principais fatores responsáveis pela redução da produtividade de diversas culturas agrícolas. A utilização dos modelos de capacidade de suporte de carga para auxiliar na prevenção ou na identificação de manejos mais resistentes ou suscetíveis à compactação dos solos é um método testado e consolidado. Este estudo foi realizado com os seguintes objetivos: gerar modelos de capacidade de suporte de carga para os diferentes usos e manejos de um Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo; e identificar, por meio do uso desses modelos, o uso ou manejo mais suscetível e mais resistente à compactação. O estudo foi conduzido no município de Passos, MG. Foram avaliados sete usos e manejos no solo em estudo, sendo eles: pastagem irrigada antes e após o pisoteio animal, pastagens não irrigadas antes e após o pisoteio animal, corredor de acesso aos piquetes, plantio direto de milho e mata nativa. As amostras indeformadas, coletadas na camada de 0 a 5 cm, foram submetidas ao ensaio de compressão uniaxial. Os modelos de capacidade de suporte de carga dos manejos pastagem irrigada e não irrigada, antes do pisoteio animal, não diferiram entre si, mas foram diferentes do modelo da mata nativa. Os modelos de capacidade de suporte de carga dos manejos pastagem irrigada após pisoteio, pastagem não irrigada após pisoteio, plantio direto de milho e corredor de acesso aos piquetes não diferiram estatisticamente, porém foram diferentes do modelo gerado para a mata nativa. Em comparação com a mata, conclui-se que o pisoteio animal alterou a estrutura do solo.

Assessing a bioremediation strategy in a shallow coastal system affected by a fish farm culture – Application of GIS and shellfish dynamic models in the Rio San Pedro, SW Spain

An integrated multi-trophic aquaculture assessment for Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) aquaculture as a bioremediation strategy in areas impacted by fish farm effluents in Rio San Pedro was assessed by combining geographic information system with carrying capacity models. Sites of 0.44km2 were evaluated considering constraints; physical factors, growth and survival factors, environmental quality factors, water and sediment quality criteria, factor suitability ranges, and Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Isleta and Flamenco are promising sites for oyster production, and Dorada is of marginal interest. Carbon and nitrogen removal from the water by algae and through detritus filtration was estimated. The biodeposition of organic material from longline leases was found to have little negative impact on sediment. The eutrophication results indicate that phytoplankton removal had a positive impact on water quality at the Dorada.This case study quantified the direct profitability and bioremediative environmental service advantages that fish-shellfish farms can have relative to fish monocultures.

Development of the theoretical model for the optimal design of surface texturing on cylinder liner

In this paper, based on the Reynolds equation and the dynamic operation conditions of cylinder liner and piston ring of CY6102 type diesel engine, a theoretical model of the load carrying capacity and film thickness for the first compressed ring were developed. Based on the theoretical models, the effects of the texturing parameters on the load carrying capacity and film thickness were investigated under different velocities, and the ranges of optimum texturing parameters were found. An optimal texturing design method on cylinder liner was proposed. It shows that on cylinder liner, texturing with variable parameters in different velocity ranges can produce higher load carrying capacity and film thickness than that with invariable parameters.

Integrated Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tongzhou District, Beijing City

Abstract: Tongzhou District has been put forward as the new developing centre of Beijing City. But the serious water deficiency and pollution restricted the local sustainable development. In this paper, an integrated water resource carrying capacity (IWRCC) model was developed under the sustainable development principle and the “natural—social” water cycle to quantify IWRCC of Tongzhou District. Three scenarios were designed to increase IWRCC and results showed that there was a great gap between IWRCC and the development plan in Tongzhou District. Water shortage restricted urbanization and sustainability seriously and transferring water from other regions besides promoting water saving and controlling pollution in the region would be the most feasible solution for Tongzhou District to mitigate the water shortage stress.