Model Representation Research Articles

Dynamic elicitation and forecasting innovation requirement of smart product-service system via user-manufacturer value co-creation perspective using multi-source data

Achieving greater efficiency and lower resource consumption is a constant pursuit for successfully developing smart product-service system (PSS). Conducting dynamic requirements analysis is increasingly important in the process while the value co-creation of smart PSS stakeholders has not been sufficiently considered. This study adopts a user-manufacturer value co-creation perspective to explore smart PSS dynamic requirement elicitation and forecasting. Using multi-source data of user online reviews, historical descriptive texts and patent abstracts, this study dynamically elicits the smart PSS innovation requirements using dynamic topic model (DTM) and bidirectional encoder representation from transformers (BERT). Furthermore, the key innovation requirements of smart PSS are identified by integrating their importance and satisfaction values into a dynamic importance-performance analysis (DIPA). Then, the trend of smart PSS key innovation requirements is predicted by the grey forecasting model to determine the smart PSS improvement direction. An empirical study of smartwatch service system is conducted to validate the proposed approach. By blending both user and manufacturer requirements, this study provides a novel framework for dynamic requirement elicitation and forecasting of smart PSS based on multi-source data. It contributes to facilitating the value co-creation during smart PSS development to optimize manufacturer’s R&D resource allocation and enhance user experience.

Second order and transverse flow visualization through three-dimensional particle image velocimetry in millimetric ducts

Despite recent advances in 3D particle image velocimetry (PIV), challenges remain in measuring small-scale 3D flows, in particular flows with large dynamic range. This study presents a scanning 3D-PIV system tailored for oscillatory flows, capable of resolving transverse flows less than a percent of the axial flow amplitude. The system was applied to visualize transverse flows in millimetric straight, toroidal, and twisted ducts. Two PIV analysis techniques, stroboscopic and semi-Lagrangian PIV, enable the quantification of net motion as well as time-resolved axial and transverse velocities. The experimental results closely align with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations performed in a digitized representation of the experimental model. The proposed method allows the examination of periodic flows in systems down to microscopic scale and is particularly well-suited for applications that cannot be scaled up due to their complex, multi-physics nature.

Simulation-driven unsupervised fault diagnosis of rolling bearing under time-varying speeds

Simulation models incorporating fault mechanisms can acquire sufficient samples with rich fault information, providing an effective solution to deep learning-driven bearing fault diagnosis in case of sample scarcity. However, the simulation models in the previous studies are mainly designed for constant speed conditions and cannot generate effective source data aligning with the variable speed conditions. Moreover, the fault impacts of bearing exhibit time-varying characteristics under variable speed conditions, causing the obstacle of the fault feature representation of the deep learning model. Therefore, this article investigates an analytical fault simulation model-driven unsupervised fault diagnosis of rolling bearing under time-varying speeds. The simulation model can customize high-quality data that match the specific variable speed conditions. The proposed network can extract robust discriminable feature representation by designing multiscale enhanced temporal convolution transformer network and enables the feature alignment of the target and simulation samples under a pseudolabel guided domain adaptation training strategy. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in addressing the bottleneck problems of bearing unsupervised fault diagnosis under variable speed conditions, including condition matching data generation and time-varying feature representation, is demonstrated using two different bearing datasets.

Quantum-Mechanics Calculations Elucidate Skin-Sensitizing Pharmaceutical Compounds.

Skin sensitization is a critical end point in occupational toxicology that necessitates the use of fast, accurate, and affordable models to aid in establishing handling guidance for worker protection. While many in silico models have been developed, the scarcity of reliable data for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and their intermediates (together regarded as pharmaceutical compounds) brings into question the reliability of these tools, which are largely constructed using publicly available nonspecialty chemicals. Here, we present the quantum-mechanical (QM) Computer-Aided Discovery and REdesign (CADRE) model, which was developed with the bioactive and structurally complex chemical space in mind by relying on the fundamentals of chemical interactions in key events (versus structural attributes of training-set data). Validated in this study on 345 APIs and intermediates, CADRE achieved 95% accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and a combined 79% accuracy in assigning potency categories compared to the mouse local lymph node assay data. We show how historical outcomes from CADRE testing in the pharmaceutical space, generated over the past 10 years on ca. 2500 chemicals, can be used to probe the relationships between sensitization mechanisms (or the underlying chemical classes) and the probability of eliciting a sensitization response in mice of a given potency. We believe this information to be of value to both practitioners, who can use it to quickly screen and triage their data sets, as well as to model developers to fine-tune their structure-based tools. Lastly, we leverage our experimentally validated subset of APIs and intermediates to show the importance of dermal permeability on the sensitization potential and potency. We demonstrate that common physicochemical properties used to assess permeation, such as the octanol-water partition coefficient and molecular weight, are poor proxies for the more accurate energy-pair distributions that can be computed from mixed QM and classical simulations using model representations of the stratum corneum.

Mutual information-based feature selection for inverse mapping parameter updating of dynamical systems

AbstractA digital twin should be and remain an accurate model representation of a physical system throughout its operational life. To this end, we aim to update (physically interpretable) parameters of such a model in an online fashion. Hereto, we employ the inverse mapping parameter updating (IMPU) method that uses an artificial neural network (ANN) to map features, extracted from measurement data, to parameter estimates. This is achieved by training the ANN offline on simulated data, i.e., pairs of known parameter value sets and sets of features extracted from corresponding simulations. Since a plethora of features (and feature types) can be extracted from simulated time domain data, feature selection (FS) strategies are investigated. These strategies employ the mutual information between features and parameters to select an informative subset of features. Hereby, accuracy of the parameters estimated by the ANN is increased and, at the same time, ANN training and inference computation times are decreased. Additionally, Bayesian search-based hyperparameter tuning is employed to enhance performance of the ANNs and to optimize the ANN structure for various FS strategies. Finally, the IMPU method is applied to a high-tech industrial use case of a semi-conductor machine, for which measurements are performed in closed-loop on the controlled physical system. This system is modeled as a nonlinear multibody model in the Simscape multibody environment. It is shown that the model updated using the IMPU method simulates the measured system more accurately than a reference model of which the parameter values have been determined manually.

Structural integrity assessment of CANDU pressure tubes using Sobol indices for global sensitivity analysis

CANDU11CANDU is a registered trademark of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited. reactors are a channel-type design where up to 480 zirconium alloy pressure tubes (PTs) act as the reactor pressure boundary. Fitness-for-service standards such as CSA N285.8 (CSA Group, 2015) have been established to prescribe the requirements of pressure tube evaluations to maintain their integrity throughout their lifetime. Probabilistic leak-before-break (LBB) assessments can be used in evaluations to demonstrate that the likelihood of a flaw growing past the stability point while undetected (or before a safe shutdown can be achieved) is below regulatory limits. The assessments typically require a ranking of model parameters based on their influence. The ranking process traditionally uses expert judgment and local sensitivity analysis methods. There has been recent interest in implementing global methods for LBB assessments as they can manage large numbers of variables and extensive sampling spaces. However, their adoption is hindered by the computational cost of the models involved.The current study proposes a method for performing global sensitivity parameter rankings during probabilistic LBB assessments. The study is the continuation of the CANDU nuclear power plant (NPP) pressure tube (PT) case study in El Bouzidi et al., (2024) where a probabilistic approach was implemented in RAVEN (Rabiti and Alfonsi, 2019) to estimate whether the probability of unstable crack growth in PTs is within acceptable limits. This follow-up work proposes surrogate modeling using a high-dimensional model representation to derive Sobol indices and establish a parameter influence ranking. The methodology is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo simulation campaign of a pressure tube inlet rolled joint. The implemented approach successfully identified and quantified critical parameters of the model while efficiently ranking and quantifying the interactions between input variables.

A pointwise weighting prediction variance–high-dimensional model representation model-based global optimization approach for ship hull parametric design

Ship hull optimization techniques based on computer-aided design/computational fluid dynamics can effectively enhance the efficiency and stability of ship designs, with significant application prospects. To enhance the potential of ship hull optimization, increasing design variable dimensionality is essential, but can cause a significant increase in hydrodynamic simulations. To reduce simulations required for high-dimensional ship hull optimization, a new surrogate method, pointwise weighting prediction variance–high-dimensional model representation (PWPV-HDMR), which uses pointwise weighting prediction variance (PWPV) to aggregate different a priori assumptions, is developed. Moreover, a differential evolution algorithm is used to identify promising hull design parameters, using the PWPV-HDMR model instead of costly simulation as the fitness function. The proposed approach is tested on the hydrostatic resistance optimization of KRISO Container Ship. The results show that PWPV-HDMR outperforms kriging-HDMR, with a better resistance optimization effect, illustrating the effectiveness of the PWPV-HDMR-based global optimization approach in discovering promising ship hull parameters.

ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ ФАЗНИХ СТРУМОВИХ КОНТУРІВ ДЛЯ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ГАРМОНІЙНОГО МАГНІТНОГО ПОЛЯ МАГНІТОЕЛЕКТРИЧНОГО ГЕНЕРАТОРА

The model of electromagnetic field of a magnetoelectric generator with a smooth cylindrical rotor and surface-mounted permanent magnets is investigated. Permanent magnets are interpreted using complex amplitudes of a system of current loops with harmonic currents. The aim of the study is to develop a mathematical model for calculating the harmonic magnetic field of a magnetoelectric generator with permanent magnets by replacing the permanent magnets with phase current loops with complex current amplitudes and to investigate its adequacy. Three variations of model representation of permanent magnets placed on the surface of the magnetic core are utilized. Depending on the model representation of permanent magnets, two dynamic generator models and two harmonic models have been developed. For each model, equations of the electromagnetic field are written. An example of a three-phase scheme of current loops of the rotor for modeling the electromagnetic field of the magnetoelectric generator with complex amplitudes of currents is presented. Comparison of the magnetic field induction, current, voltage, and electromagnetic torque is performed with three variations of magnet width relative to the pole pitch. References 14, figures 5, table 1.

Continuous Dictionary of Nodes Model and Bilinear-Diffusion Representation Learning for Brain Disease Analysis.

Brain networks based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) provide a crucial perspective for diagnosing brain diseases. Representation learning has recently attracted tremendous attention due to its strong representation capability, which can be naturally applied to brain disease analysis. However, traditional representation learning only considers direct and local node interactions in original brain networks, posing challenges in constructing higher-order brain networks to represent indirect and extensive node interactions. To address this problem, we propose the Continuous Dictionary of Nodes model and Bilinear-Diffusion (CDON-BD) network for brain disease analysis. The CDON model is innovatively used to learn the original brain network, with its encoder weights directly regarded as latent features. To fully integrate latent features, we further utilize Bilinear Pooling to construct higher-order brain networks. The Diffusion Module is designed to capture extensive node interactions in higher-order brain networks. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, CDON-BD demonstrates competitive classification performance on two real datasets. Moreover, the higher-order representations learned by our method reveal brain regions relevant to the diseases, contributing to a better understanding of the pathology of brain diseases.

Enhancing recognition and interpretation of functional phenotypic sequences through fine-tuning pre-trained genomic models

BackgroundDecoding human genomic sequences requires comprehensive analysis of DNA sequence functionality. Through computational and experimental approaches, researchers have studied the genotype-phenotype relationship and generate important datasets that help unravel complicated genetic blueprints. Thus, the recently developed artificial intelligence methods can be used to interpret the functions of those DNA sequences.MethodsThis study explores the use of deep learning, particularly pre-trained genomic models like DNA_bert_6 and human_gpt2-v1, in interpreting and representing human genome sequences. Initially, we meticulously constructed multiple datasets linking genotypes and phenotypes to fine-tune those models for precise DNA sequence classification. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of sequence length on classification results and analyze the impact of feature extraction in the hidden layers of our model using the HERV dataset. To enhance our understanding of phenotype-specific patterns recognized by the model, we perform enrichment, pathogenicity and conservation analyzes of specific motifs in the human endogenous retrovirus (HERV) sequence with high average local representation weight (ALRW) scores.ResultsWe have constructed multiple genotype-phenotype datasets displaying commendable classification performance in comparison with random genomic sequences, particularly in the HERV dataset, which achieved binary and multi-classification accuracies and F1 values exceeding 0.935 and 0.888, respectively. Notably, the fine-tuning of the HERV dataset not only improved our ability to identify and distinguish diverse information types within DNA sequences but also successfully identified specific motifs associated with neurological disorders and cancers in regions with high ALRW scores. Subsequent analysis of these motifs shed light on the adaptive responses of species to environmental pressures and their co-evolution with pathogens.ConclusionsThese findings highlight the potential of pre-trained genomic models in learning DNA sequence representations, particularly when utilizing the HERV dataset, and provide valuable insights for future research endeavors. This study represents an innovative strategy that combines pre-trained genomic model representations with classical methods for analyzing the functionality of genome sequences, thereby promoting cross-fertilization between genomics and artificial intelligence.

Desegregation of neuronal predictive processing.

Neural circuits construct internal 'world-models' to guide behavior. The predictive processing framework posits that neural activity signaling sensory predictions and concurrently computing prediction-errors is a signature of those internal models. Here, to understand how the brain generates predictions for complex sensorimotor signals, we investigate the emergence of high-dimensional, multi-modal predictive representations in recurrent networks. We find that robust predictive processing arises in a network with loose excitatory/inhibitory balance. Contrary to previous proposals of functionally specialized cell-types, the network exhibits desegregation of stimulus and prediction-error representations. We confirmed these model predictions by experimentally probing predictive-coding circuits using a rich stimulus-set to violate learned expectations. When constrained by data, our model further reveals and makes concrete testable experimental predictions for the distinct functional roles of excitatory and inhibitory neurons, and of neurons in different layers along a laminar hierarchy, in computing multi-modal predictions. These results together imply that in natural conditions, neural representations of internal models are highly distributed, yet structured to allow flexible readout of behaviorally-relevant information. The generality of our model advances the understanding of computation of internal models across species, by incorporating different types of predictive computations into a unified framework.

Combining Semantic and Structural Features for Reasoning on Patent Knowledge Graphs

To address the limitations in capturing complex semantic features between entities and the incomplete acquisition of entity and relationship information by existing patent knowledge graph reasoning algorithms, we propose a reasoning method that integrates semantic and structural features for patent knowledge graphs, denoted as SS-DSA. Initially, to facilitate the model representation of patent information, a directed graph representation model based on the patent knowledge graph is designed. Subsequently, structural information within the knowledge graph is mined using inductive learning, which is combined with the learning of graph structural features. Finally, an attention mechanism is employed to integrate the scoring results, enhancing the accuracy of reasoning outcomes such as patent classification, latent inter-entity relationships, and new knowledge inference. Experimental results demonstrate that the improved algorithm achieves an up to approximately 30% increase in the MRR index compared to the ComplEx model in the public Dataset 1; in Dataset 2, the MRR and Hits@n indexes, respectively, saw maximal improvements of nearly 30% and 112% when compared with MLMLM and ComplEx models; in Dataset 3, the MRR and Hits@n indexes realized maximal enhancements of nearly 200% and 40% in comparison with the MLMLM model. This effectively proves the efficacy of the refined model in the reasoning process. Compared to recently widely applied reasoning algorithms, it offers a superior capability in addressing complex structures within the datasets and accomplishing the completion of existing patent knowledge graphs.

Fast model calibration for predicting the response of breast cancer to chemotherapy using proper orthogonal decomposition

Constructing digital twins for predictive tumor treatment response models can have a high computational demand that presents a practical barrier for their clinical adoption. In this work, we demonstrate that proper orthogonal decomposition, by which a low-dimensional representation of the full model is constructed, can be used to dramatically reduce the computational time required to calibrate a partial differential equation model to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for rapid predictions of tumor growth and response to chemotherapy. In the proposed formulation, the reduction basis is based on each patient’s own MRI data and controls the overall size of the “reduced order model”. Using the full model as the reference, we validate that the reduced order mathematical model can accurately predict response in 50 triple negative breast cancer patients receiving standard of care neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The concordance correlation coefficient between the full and reduced order models was 0.986 ± 0.012 (mean ± standard deviation) for predicting changes in both tumor volume and cellularity across the entire model family, with a corresponding median local error (inter-quartile range) of 4.36 % (1.22 %, 15.04 %). The total time to estimate parameters and to predict response dramatically improves with the reduced framework. Specifically, the reduced order model accelerates our calibration by a factor of (mean ± standard deviation) 378.4 ± 279.8 when compared to the full order model for a non-mechanically coupled model. This enormous reduction in computational time can directly help realize the practical construction of digital twins when the access to computational resources is limited.

Volatility of Fish Prices in Manado City Using Multivariate GARCH Model

Time series data modeling is generally performed using the assumption of homoscedasticity or residual variance that is constant over time. However, the homoscedasticity assumption cannot answer the problem of volatility in economic and business time series data, because generally data on economics and business have residual variances that always change over time. Therefore, a model developed with the assumption of not constant variance is known as heteroskedasticity model. Multivariate GARCH model is a development of the univariate GARCH model. The multivariate GARCH model can be viewed as a conditional heteroskedasticity model in a multivariate time series. This paper discusses the parameterization of covariance matrices such as Vech model representation, BEEK model and Constant Correlation model. For parameter estimation the maximum likelihood method is used. Furthermore, multivariate GARCH model application is applied for multivariate model. In this research, the data used are data on the prices of fresh fish in Manado. The fish price data is the price of Tuna, Skipjack (Cakalang), Cobe (Tongkol), Kite (Malalugis) and Selar fish (Tude). The ARCH effect test results show that the data meet the assumption of non-constant variance (heteroscedasticity). GARCH mutivariate modeling in the form of a VEC diagonal model gives the results of the price volatility of fresh fish in Manado

A map of canine sequence variation relative to a Greenland wolf outgroup.

For over 15years, canine genetics research relied on a reference assembly from a Boxer breed dog named Tasha (i.e., canFam3.1). Recent advances in long-read sequencing and genome assembly have led to the development of numerous high-quality assemblies from diverse canines. These assemblies represent notable improvements in completeness, contiguity, and the representation of gene promoters and gene models. Although genome graph and pan-genome approaches have promise, most genetic analyses in canines rely upon the mapping of Illumina sequencing reads to a single reference. The Dog10K consortium, and others, have generated deep catalogs of genetic variation through an alignment of Illumina sequencing reads to a reference genome obtained from a German Shepherd Dog named Mischka (i.e., canFam4, UU_Cfam_GSD_1.0). However, alignment to a breed-derived genome may introduce bias in genotype calling across samples. Since the use of an outgroup reference genome may remove this effect, we have reprocessed 1929 samples analyzed by the Dog10K consortium using a Greenland wolf (mCanLor1.2) as the reference. We efficiently performed remapping and variant calling using a GPU-implementation of common analysis tools. The resulting call set removes the variability in genetic differences seen across samples and breed relationships revealed by principal component analysis are not affected by the choice of reference genome. Using this sequence data, we inferred the history of population sizes and found that village dog populations experienced a 9-13 fold reduction in historic effective population size relative to wolves.

What Drives the Spread and Bias in the Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in CMIP6 Models?

Abstract This study evaluates the representation of the composite-mean surface response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in 28 CMIP6 models. Most models can reproduce the magnitude of the SLP response over the Arctic, although the simulated Arctic SLP response varies from model to model. Regarding the structure of the SLP response, most models exhibit a basin-symmetric negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM)-like response with a cyclonic Pacific SLP response, whereas the reanalysis shows a highly basin-asymmetric negative NAO-like response without a robust Pacific center. We then explore the drivers of these model biases and spread by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR). The results show that the polar cap temperature anomalies at 100 hPa (ΔT100) modulate the magnitude of both the Arctic SLP response and the cyclonic Pacific SLP response. Apart from ΔT100, the intensity and latitudinal location of the climatological eddy-driven jet in the troposphere also affect the magnitude of the Arctic SLP response. The compensation of model biases in these two tropospheric metrics and the good model representation of ΔT100 explain the good agreement between the ensemble mean and the reanalysis on the magnitude of the Arctic SLP response, as indicated by the fact that the ensemble mean lies well within the reanalysis uncertainty range and that the reanalysis mean sits well within the model distribution. The Niño-3.4 SST anomalies and North Pacific SST dipole anomalies together with ΔT100 modulate the cyclonic Pacific SLP response. In this case, biases in both oceanic drivers work in the same direction and lead to the cyclonic Pacific SLP response in models that are not present in the reanalysis. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) represent an important source of skill for forecasting winter weather on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales. To what extent SSWs could be used to improve the prediction of surface weather depends on how well stratosphere–troposphere coupling associated with SSWs is represented in climate models. Therefore, we evaluate the representation of stratosphere–troposphere coupling associated with SSWs in 28 state-of-the-art climate models. The representation is found to diverge widely among climate models, and some are biased noticeably from the reanalysis. The models’ spread and bias are largely driven by five major factors and can be reduced substantially by making bias corrections to these factors.

Sparse decoupling imaging network for wideband two‐dimensional MIMO radar imaging using model‐assisted and attention mechanism

AbstractThe problem of sparse decoupling radar imaging methods based on deep learning is researched. An improved model‐driven learning imaging network with a complex‐valued convolution block attention module plugged into each sub‐network is proposed. This method can solve the high sidelobe and coupling problem in sparse wideband Multiple‐Input Multiple‐Output (MIMO) radar. In addition, it can better focus on the target area and capture target information to boost model representation power. Experimental results verify the validity of the proposed method.

Improving Subsurface Soil Moisture Estimation Using a 2‐Dimensional Data Assimilation Framework Incorporated With a Dual State‐Parameter Scheme

AbstractAccurate subsurface soil moisture (SM) estimation is critical for vegetation growth, drought monitoring, and climate change mitigation, yet remains a significant challenge. Previous data assimilation (DA) approaches are limited to only surface SM assimilation. In this study, we utilized the proxy subsurface SM estimated via the exponential filter method (ExpF) as another assimilation variable in our 2‐dimensional DA. Meanwhile, the dual updating DA scheme was implemented to simultaneously update model parameters and states. The two DA pathways were incorporated into the proposed framework (DA_1E_D), which enhanced the subsurface SM accuracy, with the effects of 2‐dimensional assimilation being more significant. Under 2‐dimensional DA, the information transfer between layers was more accurately characterized, leading to overall improvements with unbiased root‐mean‐square error (ubRMSE) reductions of 0.015 and 0.005 m3 · m−3, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) increases of 0.248 and 0.067 for surface and subsurface SM, respectively, across five SM networks. The soil thickness (d2) and hydraulic conductivity exponent (expt2) are the most influential parameters affecting subsurface SM dynamics through model propagation. DA_1E_D also outperformed ExpF in subsurface SM accuracy, particularly in SM networks with weak surface‐subsurface correlation, achieving an average ubRMSE reduction of 0.003 m3 · m−3 and an average KGE increase of 0.202. It was also applied to Soil Moisture Active Passive data at regional scale, demonstrating significant improvements. The model surface‐subsurface SM coupling was adjusted toward the actual coupling after subsurface assimilation and dual updating. This study may provide new insights into the diagnosis and refinements of the model representation of surface‐subsurface processes.

Wave‐Convection Interactions Amplify Convective Parameterization Biases in the South Pacific Convergence Zone

AbstractClimate models have long‐standing difficulties simulating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its variability. For example, the default Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) produces too much light precipitation and too little heavy precipitation in the SPCZ, with this bias toward light precipitation even more pronounced in the SPCZ than in the tropics as a whole. Here, we show that implementing a recently developed convection scheme in the CAM5 yields significant improvements in the simulated SPCZ during austral summer and discuss the reasons behind these improvements. In addition to intensifying both mean rainfall and its variability in the SPCZ, the new scheme produces a larger heavy rainfall fraction that is more consistent with observations and state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses. This shift toward heavier, more variable rainfall increases both the magnitude and altitude of diabatic heating associated with convective precipitation, intensifying lower tropospheric convergence and increasing the influence of convection on the upper‐level circulation. Increased diabatic production of potential vorticity in the upper troposphere intensifies the distortion effect exerted by convection on transient Rossby waves that pass through the SPCZ. Weaker distortion effects in simulations using the ZM scheme allow waves to propagate continuously through the region rather than dissipating locally, further reducing updrafts and weakening convection in the SPCZ. Our results outline a dynamical framework for evaluating model representations of tropical–extratropical interactions within the SPCZ and clarify why convective parameterizations that produce “top‐heavy” profiles of deep convective heating better represent the SPCZ and its variability.

On the random vibration-based progressive fatigue damage detection and classification for thermoplastic coupons under population and operational uncertainty

The problem of vibration-based progressive fatigue damage detection and Fatigue State (FS) determination for thermoplastic coupons is experimentally addressed under significant population and experimental uncertainty. The study involves 13 coupons subjected to tension–tension fatigue testing with interruptions at 10,000-cycle intervals. Utilizing non-parametric random vibration analysis and a robust, uncertainty-tolerant methodology, the research employs Multiple Model Representations of uncertain dynamics through parametric ARMA(AutoRegressive-Moving Average)-type random vibration response modeling. Results, validated by ultrasonic C-Scan testing, reveal (a) the significance of uncertainties, (b) a resonant structural frequency indicating fatigue accumulation, (c) remarkable detection performance, achieving 100 % accuracy even at 10,000 cycles, and (d) FS determination with over 80 % accuracy across all coupons. This study offers promising avenues for automated fatigue damage detection and FS determination in thermoplastic structures, eliminating the need to interrupt their operational cycles.