HEC-HMS Model Research Articles

Flood Estimation and Control in a Micro-Watershed Using GIS-Based Integrated Approach

Flood analyses when using a GIS-based integrated approach have been successfully applied around the world in large-sized watersheds. This study employed hydrological-hydraulic modeling to analyze flash floods by integrating HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, and ArcGIS software for flood evaluation and control in a micro-watershed in the Samaru River, Nigeria. The watershed boundaries, its characteristics (soil and land use), the topographical survey, and the intensity duration frequency curve (IDF) of the study area were produced using data-driven techniques. The HEC-HMS model was used to derive the peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return periods with the frequency storm method. Afterward, the water surface profiles for the respective return periods were estimated using the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model. The simulated design flood for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return periods at the reference location (the NUGA gate culvert) were 3.5, 6.8, 9.1, 12.1, 14.3, 16.6, and 19.0 m3/s, respectively, while those at the watershed outlet for the respective return periods were 7.5, 14.9, 20.3, 27.3, 32.6, 38.0, and 43.5 m3/s, respectively (with a water height of 0.9 m, 1.1 m, 1.3 m, 1.33 m, 1.38 m, 1.5 3m, and 1.8 m, respectively), at the NUGA gate culvert cross-section. The maximum water depths of about 0.9 m and 1.0 m were recorded in the right and left overbanks, which were similar to the simulated water depth for the 2- and 5-year return periods. Hence, for the smart control of floods passing through the river and major hydraulic structures, a minimum design height of 1.50 m is recommended. For the most economic trapezoidal channel section, a normal depth of 1.50 m, a bottom width of 1.73 m, a top width of 3.50 m, and a free board of 0.30 m is proposed to curb the overtopping of floods along the channel sub-sections. The findings of this study could help hydraulic engineers minimize flooding in streams and rivers overbanks in a micro-watershed.

Reliability of stream flow in inter-basin water transfer under different climatic conditions using remote sensing in the Upper Tana basin

Inter-basin water transfer interventions are inherently prone to large-scale climate variability and droughts that may affect the reliability of the water supply to the recipient basin. This research evaluated the reliability of three streams of Maragua, Irati, and Gikigie in the Upper Tana basin to meet the proposed water transfers to Nairobi City in the Athi River basin. HEC HMS model was used to simulate the stream flows with NSE and R2 of 0.59 and 0.72 respectively in the validation period, using remotely sensed WaPOR ETa as input data. During the dry years, the reliability of Maragua, Irati, and Gikigie to meet the water transfer was 15 %, 23 %, and 33 % respectively. In normal years, the reliability increased to 45 %, 60 %, and 62 %; and to 83 %, 98 %, and 94 % in the wet years. This implies that the project will not meet its objective during the dry and normal years. The dry years had a 5 years cycle of occurrence while the wet years occurred every 10 years. Baker Flashiness index showed Irati and Gikigie flows to vary between 9 % and 25 % while Maragua flow, vary between 7 % and 44 % showing that the Maragua stream has higher variability thus lower reliability. The results showed the importance of considering water assessment of new infrastructural work on the cyclic nature of stream flows over traditional approaches that use long-average historical data. Inter-basin flood based systems coupled with storage reservoirs may enhance supply reliability thus reducing the hydrological risks of stream flow variability.

Assessment of the structural uncertainty of hydrological models and its impact on flood inundation mapping

ABSTRACTFloods are frequent natural disasters, and the management of floods involves predicting flood hydrographs and inundation maps. However, the uncertainty associated with these predictions is a significant challenge in flood management. This study focuses on the uncertainty associated with the selection of mathematical models to estimate flood hydrographs and their impact on inundation map predictions. The study involved setting up 27 hydrological models using different mathematical models for the loss, transform, and routing methods within the Hydrologic Engineering center – Hydrologic Modelling system (HEC-HMS) model. The results showed that the peak flow estimation depends on the models adopted for predicting the flood hydrograph. This uncertainty was translated to the flood inundation maps, where the inundated area varied across different flood events. The study also found that the hydrological conditions prior to the start of the event impact the hydrological model predictive uncertainty, and ensemble predictions by Bayesian model averaging can reduce the uncertainty.

Rainfall-runoff simulations in ungauged Fusre River basin, Nepal using HEC-HMS model

Rainfall-runoff simulations in ungauged Fusre River basin, Nepal using HEC-HMS model

Flood Discharge For Ungauged Catchment At Teriang River, Pahang By Using HEC-HMS

Insufficiency of meteorological data during extreme rainfall events hinders simulation and forecasting analysis in flood mitigation systems. Hence, the existence of a reliable database in hydrology is crucial in flood modelling for ungauged catchments, especially for calibration and validation purposes. This paper focused on the generation of rainfall data by using Hydrological Procedure No. 1 (HP1) from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) Malaysia. Subsequently, analysis of flood hydrographs at Teriang River, Pahang, Malaysia, using HEC-HMS 4.8 for 50 and 100-year return periods was also obtained in this study. For validation purposes, the outcomes were compared to Hydrological Procedure No. 11 (HP11), designed for rural catchments. For precipitation data generation, the design rainfall was calculated based on generalised isopleth maps from HP1 for various rainfall durations ranging from 0.25 hours to 72 hours. Based on the results, the maximum peak discharge for 50 ARI was 354.7 m3/s, while for 100 ARI it was 410 m3/s before calibration. Comparing the results from the HEC-HMS model and the outputs from HP11, the analysis for 50-year and 100-year return periods in the Teriang River showed that the relative percentage differences for peak discharge were 19.99% and 17.64%, respectively. The calibration process managed to obtain a relative percentage difference of 2.94% for 50 ARI and 4.36% for 100 ARI. In conclusion, HEC-HMS can be used as a reliable tool to produce simulated streamflow for ungauged catchments with the help of the generated rainfall temporal patterns from HP1, which is a procedure that contains estimation of design rainfall intensity based on the rainfall intensity-during-frequency relationship (IDF relationship).

Different responses of event-based flood to typhoon and non-typhoon rainstorms under land use change in Xixi Basin of southeastern China

There are two major types of rainstorms in the Asia-Pacific region –typhoon induced rainstorm and non-typhoon rainstorm. This study investigated and separated the different flood responses to these two types of rainstorms, based on a scheme that combined the classification of typhoon and non-typhoon rainstorm floods, the simulation from a distributed hydrological model, and a method to forward restore the impact of land use change on flood frequency analysis. For flood events in a typical basin on the southeast coast of China, the flood characteristics in response to typhoon and non-typhoon rainstorms were significantly different in three aspects: (1) The key parameters in the HEC-HMS model were systematically different. The initial loss and wave velocity of the model were apparently larger for the typhoon rainstorm flood than for the non-typhoon rainstorm flood. (2) The impacts of land use change were different, with smaller effect on typhoon induced floods than on non-typhoon floods under the same magnitude of flood peak flow. (3) Classification of two types of floods resulted in more reasonable frequency analysis affected with the land use change because the annual maximum flood series is the mixture of typhoon and non-typhoon rainstorms. Frequency analysis for the forward-restored mixture flood series showed that the land use change with the decrease in the area of forest land and the increase of garden and construction land resulted in the increase of the mean maximum flow from 2266.6 to 2510.19 m3/s, but the values of coefficient of variation were slightly altered, the ratio of skewness coefficient to variation coefficient were unchanged. The results provide new ideas and methods for a deeper understanding of the impact of land use change on flooding in typhoon and non-typhoon co-action regions.

Evaluation of the Streamflow Response to Agricultural Land Expansion in the Thiba River Watershed in Kenya

The increasing global population necessitates increased agricultural production, driving the expansion of agricultural lands and advancement of irrigation farming to supplement the inconsistent and insufficient rainfall patterns prevalent in many regions. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impacts of the expansion of agricultural lands on the streamflow regime of the Thiba River and its impact on the downstream users. The study involved comparing the 2004 and 2014 land uses and using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS) for long-term impact simulations. The results showed a considerable decline in the streamflow in the dry months compared to the wet months, with increasing water abstraction trends from 2007 to 2014. The long-term impact assessment showed an average decline in streamflow in the near (2030) and far (2060) future due to land use and population changes with minimal impact from the increasing precipitation. Based on these findings, there is a need for proper water management and adaptation mechanisms to be put in place to maintain the future water supply from the Thiba River. This study’s findings could assist policy and decision-makers in making informed water resource management decisions.

Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using HEC-HMS model

Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using HEC-HMS model

Analysis of the Effect of Land Cover Changes on the Runoff Dynamics Using the HEC-HMS Model in Gajahwong Watershed, Yogyakarta

The Gajahwong watershed is part of the Opak watershed. The development of urban areas in the Opak watershed is very massive. The development of the urban regions in the Gajahwong watershed is the occurrence of land conversion from non-built land to built-up land. The land cover change will result in changes in the hydrological response of the watershed. The results showed that in the Gajahwong watershed, there was a decrease in agricultural land in the Gajahwong watershed, which was initially 30,209 km2 in 2016, down to 20,204 km2 in 2020. Agricultural land declines due to the conversion of functions to built-up land. Built-up land in the Gajahwong watershed increased by 4,483 km2. This condition resulted in an increase in the CN value in the Gajahwong watershed from the original in 2016 having a CN II of 73 and then increasing to 74. The results show that in 2016, the Gajahwong watershed had a peak discharge of 14.9 m3/s; in 2020, the peak discharge in the Gajahwong watershed decreased to 11.8 m3/s. The volume runoff in the Gajahwong watershed also reduced from 2880.21 mm in 2016 and then in 2020 to 2011,39 mm.

Water Resources Assessment for Raw Water Purposes in Serang Watershed, Kulonprogro

One source of raw water for drinking water is river water. The raw water source for drinking water must meet the requirements for quantity, continuity, and quality. Raw water for drinking water must meet class I water quality requirements. This study aims to assess of the potential for water availability and water quality in the Serang River. Analysis of water availability used statistical methods and simulated rainfall-runoff with the HEC-HMS model. Calibration of the hydrological model was carried out in sub-watersheds where there were observational discharge data. Water availability is reviewed in the second-order river. Water quality status was analyzed using the Pollutant Index and Storet methods. The results of the analysis of water availability for reliable discharge with a probability of 80%, 90%, and 95% in several sections of the Serang River to order 2 rivers can be presented in the form of a flow duration curve. The results of the analysis of the status of water quality in several sections of the upstream Serang river based on the Storet method and the Polluter Index method show that in general, it is in a slightly polluted condition.

Estimation of Runoff in Data Scare Watershed of Middle Gujarat, India Using HEC-HMS Model

The accurate estimation of the hydrologic response in water resources planning and development is crucial. In this study, the rainfall-runoff relationship and hydrologic response of the Devgadh Baria watershed in the Panam river catchment were investigated. Due to limited availability and accuracy of runoff data, Clark UH, and SCS UH models were explored for runoff estimation. Remote sensing and GIS techniques were integrated to assess the ungauged watershed in the Middle Gujarat region.
 Rainfall and discharge data, Sentinel-2 data, 12.5m ALOS PALSAR DEM, base maps, and soil maps were collected from various sources. The study area's five different events were randomly selected, and a Thiessen map was prepared to calculate weighted rainfall. Geomorphological parameters and Horton's ratios were estimated using remote sensing and GIS software ILWIS.
 The composite curve number (CN) for the watershed was found to be 77.69. Excess-rainfall hyetographs were separated using the SCS-loss method, and the time to peak estimated by the models matched well with observed data, except for a one-day delay in the HEC-HMS based Clark UH model.
 Four performance indices, namely NSE, PBIAS, RMSE, and d, were used to compare model performance. The SCS UH model demonstrated the highest NSE value (-0.28) for event-1, while the HEC-HMS based SCS UH model showed the lowest NSE value (-0.28) for event-1. The SCS model outperformed the other models based on performance indicators NSE, RMSE, and d. Overall, the SCS UH approach provided the best estimation of peak discharge and time to peak discharge. The direct surface runoff hydrographs estimated using.

Applicabilty of TRMM Precipitation for Hydrological Modeling Using HEC-HMS in Karnali River Basin in Nepal

This study aims to validate the HEC-HMS model in the Karnali river basin of Nepal, while also physically verifying the model parameters for the area. The HEC-HMS model is a semi-distributed physically based model that requires site-specific information about the weather, as well as spatial information on soil and land use. Using Arc-GIS, HEC-HMS, and HEC DSS, a hydrological rainfall runoff model was developed for the Karnali River basin at Asaraghat (DHM station 240) for the period of 1998-2005. Calibration for the time period of 1998-2001 resulted in an NSE value of 73.2% and an R2 value of 84%. Validation for the time period of 2003-2005 resulted in an NSE value of 72.4% and an R2 value of 82.02%. To evaluate the performance of the TRMM 3B42V7 rainfall product, statistical indicators such as NSE and R2 were used. Results showed that the TRMM rainfall data was reliable and had good precision in application to the Karnali River Basin. This study concludes that the TRMM rainfall data can be used as an alternative data source for basins with sparse rain gauge stations in Nepal. The results also suggest that the HEC-HMS modeling tool is good enough to relate rainfall and runoff. The model parameters for each sub-basin and reaches were analyzed with the physical characteristics of the watershed. Minor variations were found within calibrated and calculated Initial abstraction and Muskingum K, x, leading to the verification of the model parameters physically.

Effect of climate change on reservoir water balance and irrigation water demand: a case of Gidabo irrigation project, Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia.

The consequences of climate change on agriculture water demand are among the current and prospective challenges. The amount of water needed by crops is significantly affected by the regional climate. The influence of climate change on irrigation water demand and reservoir water balance components were examined. The results of seven regional climate models were compared, and the top-performing model was chosen for the study area. After model calibration and validation, the HEC-HMS model was used to forecast future water availability in the reservoir. The results show that under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, the reservoir's water availability in the 2050s will decline by approximately 7% and 9%, respectively. The CROPWAT results showed that the required irrigation water might rise by 26 to 39% in the future. However, the water supply for irrigation may be drastically reduced due to the drop in reservoir water storage. As a result, the irrigation command area could drop up to 21% (2878.4ha) to 33% (4502ha) in future climatic conditions. Therefore, we recommend alternative watershed management techniques and climate change adaptation measures to endure upcoming water shortages in the area.

Investigating the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on Rawal Dam Reservoir Operations and Hydrological Behavior

In order to assess the effects of climate change and land use change on Rawal Dam, a major supply of water for Rawalpindi and Islamabad, this study uses hydrological modeling at the watershed scale. The HEC-HMS model was used to simulate the hydrological response in the Rawal Dam catchment to historical precipitation. The calibrated model was then used to determine how changes in land use and climate had an impact on reservoir inflows. The model divided the Rawal Dam watershed into six sub-basins, each with unique features, and covered the entire reservoir’s catchment area using data from three climatic stations (Murree, Islamabad Zero Point and Rawal Dam). For the time spans of 2003–2005 and 2006–2007, the model was calibrated and verified, respectively. An excellent fit between the observed and predicted flows was provided by the model. The GCM (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) produced estimates of temperature and precipitation under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) after statistical downscaling with the CMhyd model. To evaluate potential effects of climate change and land use change on Rawal Dam, these projections, along with future circumstances for land use and land cover, were fed to the calibrated model. The analysis was carried out on a seasonal basis over the baseline period (1990–2015) and over future time horizon (2016–2100), which covers the present century. The findings point to a rise in precipitation for both SSPs, which is anticipated to result in an increase in inflows throughout the year. SSP2 projected a 15% increase in precipitation across the Rawal Dam catchment region until the end of the twenty-first century, while SSP5 forecasted a 17% increase. It was determined that higher flows are to be anticipated in the future. The calibrated model can also be utilized successfully for future hydrological impact assessments on the reservoir, it was discovered.

Simulation of the rainfall–runoff relationship using an HEC-HMS hydrological model for Dabus Subbasin, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract Hydrological modeling is important to provide relevant hydrologic information from limited data. In this study, Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was used to simulate the rainfall–runoff relationship for the Dabus subbasin of the Blue Nile Basin. Daily precipitation and stream flow data from 2002 to 2019 were used as key input data for the model, together with soil and land use/land cover data, and a digital elevation model of the study area. Arc-GIS was employed in combination with Arc Hydro and HEC-GeoHMS tools for terrain processing and translating spatial information into model files for HEC-HMS, respectively. Model calibration was done with data from 2002 to 2014, while the validation was done from 2015 to 2019. Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (NSE), observation standardized ratio (RSR), and coefficient of correlation (R2) were used to assess the performance of the model. With NSE, RSR, and R2 values of 0.784, 0.334, and 0.816 for calibration, and 0.793, 0.323, and 0.875 for validation, the model simulation of stream flows was found in good agreement with the observed values. Therefore, the HEC-HMS model can be utilized to predict stream flows in ungauged catchments in the Dabus subbasin from measured rainfall data for proper water resource planning and management.

Rainfall-runoff modeling using HEC-HMS model in an ungauged Himalayan catchment of Himachal Pradesh, India

Rainfall-runoff modeling using HEC-HMS model in an ungauged Himalayan catchment of Himachal Pradesh, India

The Impact of Land Use Change on Surface Runoff at Air Dingin Sub-watershed, Padang City Indonesia

The land load in the Air Dingin Sub-watershed is increasing due to the relocation of the Padang City administrative center to the district. Subsequently, this not only reduces the catchment area but also increases the surface runoff, because the open green space, which originally served as a catchment area, has been converted into settlements. A random measurement of the infiltration rate with a double-ring infiltrometer was used as a method and analyzed using the Kostiakov technique. The infiltration capacity obtained is then classified quantitatively into infiltration zoning. The runoff discharge was analyzed using Modeling System of hydrology, while the flow coefficient was determined by analyzing topography, land use, and soil type data with HEC-HMS modeling, the HSS SCS CN Method and ArcGIS 10.6. The Kostiakov method is used to calculate the capacity value in field filtration. This method took into account the physical properties of the soil and land cover. The performed analysis showed that the runoff discharge was 788.70 m3/sec, while the design discharge (2010) was 600.0 m3/sec. The runoff discharge increased by 188.70 m3/sec or an increase of 31.45%. The average infiltration rate in this area was 0.000002–0.5 cm/minute, and there was a residual discharge after the infiltration and percolation process of 499.31 m3/second. This residual discharge caused flooding in Air Dingin Sub-watershed with an initial inundation of 5.72 minutes after the rain. In terms of zoning division of the catchment area based on the value of the infiltration rate, the Air Dingin Sub-watershed area is in a very low infiltration rate zone.

PEMANFAATAN DEM-SRTM DAN DEM-NAS SEBAGAI DASAR SIMULASI HUJAN-DEBIT DI DAS KALIWADAS

The accuracy of flow prediction in a watershed for water resource development is highly dependent on various factors such as the transformation model used, the availability and accuracy of hydrological data and watershed characteristics such as topography, drainage networks, land cover and soil texture. Watershed characteristics are considered as the most dominant determinants in various hydrological analyzes, especially with regard to the data used to compile the watershed model, in this case the Digital Elevatian Model (DEM) data. This study aims to develop a watershed model based on National DEM (DEMNAS) data to estimate daily discharge using the HEC-HMS model and design discharge using the Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) method. The research was conducted in the Kaliwadas watershed, which is located in Kandang Serang District, Pekalongan Regency, Central Java Province. Kaliwadas River is one of the sub-watersheds with a drainage area of approximately 165.78 km2 which has a good enough potential to supply hydro-based electricity. The performance of the DAS model formed with DEMNAS data is compared with the performance of the watershed model formed with the DEM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data, where these two DEM data have a resolution of 8 meters and 90 meters, respectively. Performance testing is based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) number of the two predictive flow from the HEC-HMS Model to the observed discharge. The results showed that the estimated discharge of the HEC-HMS Model using the DEMNAS Watershed Model showed slightly better performance than using the SRTM DAS Model, with a RMSE difference of 0.27.

Assessing the Effects of Urbanization on Water Flow and Flood Events Using the HEC-HMS Model in the Wirynka River Catchment, Poland

Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters in small urban watersheds resulting in loss of life and enormous damage to property and posing a serious threat to the economy. Appropriate modeling can be a useful tool to prevent and reduce such flood risks. It is currently important to use hydrological models to assess and predict the water availability of river basins due to climate change to develop a strategy to cope with the changing environment. The study used an integrated approach combining a geographic information system (GIS) and hydrological modeling to assess the impact of urbanization on flash floods in peri-urban developing areas. The modeling was carried out for two spatial aspects relating to 1990 and 2018. The model allowed simulation of the river water flow that can occur under different rainfall probabilities. The study showed that rapid urbanization adversely affects hydrological processes. Reduced infiltration capacity increases water runoff, thereby increasing the risk of flooding or waterlogging. Therefore, it is extremely important to properly manage rainwater in the area.

Flood Control of Kupang River, Pekalongan

The local community in Pekalongan suffered financial losses as a result of the Kupang River flood. To control floods in the Kupang watershed, this research aims to identify the most effective way to lower the discharge that flows downstream due to heavy rainfall. HEC-HMS modeling was used to analyze flood discharge. The result from an analysis of flood discharge in the existing conditions downstream of the Kupang River with a 100-year returns period is 641.6 m3/s. This study will include 9 locations of the potential reservoir as flood control that will be simulated using small dams and dry dams. The discharge analysis results from modeling a small dam can reduce the discharge by 261.9 m3/s, or 40.8%. On the other hand, the dry dam simulation can reduce flood discharge by 406 m3/s, or 64.8%. According to the analysis's results, using a dry dam to reduce the amount of water that is discharged into the upstream watershed is the most efficient way to manage floods. As a result, the dry dam method is ideal for controlling floods from the Kupang upstream watershed.