Potential Distribution Model Research Articles

Quercus purhepecha (Fagaceae), a new species of shrub oak endemic to the state of Michoacán, Mexico

Within the genus Quercus there are species with a shrubby habit that have been little studied worldwide. In Mexico, several shrub species within section Quercus are taxonomically highly problematic. These include eight named taxa that share traits such as abaxially tomentose leaves and growth of stems from one or multiple rhizomes, and there is evidence of additional undescribed species. Here, Quercus purhepecha is described and illustrated as a new tomentose shrubby white oak species, with a very restricted distribution within the Cuitzeo basin in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), Michoacán state, Mexico. This new species is morphologically compared with Q. frutex, Q. microphylla and Q. repanda, which are similar taxa also distributed in the TMVB. In addition, a potential distribution model of Q. purhepecha for the Cuitzeo basin is presented.

Prediction of environmental suitability for Haematoxylum campechianum: a proposal to promote reforestation in Mexico

Models of potential distribution and ecological niche allow to estimate priority areas for the management of species of interest, as well as to identify variables related to environmental suitability and predict the behavior of species in the face of anthropogenic disturbances. Logwood (Haematoxylum campechianum) is a species that we consider a natural heritage in southeastern Mexico because of its ecological role and the current and historical use of its wood. This species is present in different vegetation types and even dominates in some ecosystems called "tintales", which have been exploited for dye extraction in past centuries. This, combined with changes in land use for livestock, agriculture, and other anthropogenic activities, has affected the Logwood´s distribution and connectivity of its populations. We modeled the potential distribution of H. campechianum and evaluated the feasibility of reforestation with this species in southeastern Mexico. For this purpose, we included 638 occurrence points and used the MaxEnt algorithm for modeling, analyzing different parameters. We used the potential distribution model, accessibility to the areas and water availability to calculate a feasibility index for reforestation. The environmental suitability for the species is more present in southeastern Mexico, conditioned by the aridity index, the maximum temperature of the coldest month and the warmest month. The greatest percentage of areas with high feasibility indexes for reforestation are found in Campeche, apparently a key state for the conservation and management of the species. This study can be the starting point for implementing reforestation programs with H. campechianum and can be used as an example to apply to other species with patrimonial value.

Potential Distribution and Carbon Sequestration of Rhizophora mangle L. in El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Mangroves are a type of vegetation distributed in warm areas of the planet. Despite their importance, this flora is seriously threatened by both human activities and climate change. One of the main benefits provided by mangroves is carbon capture and storage, which is key for climate change mitigation. The main objective of this study was to identify the potential distribution and carbon sequestration potential of Rhizophora mangle L. in El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve. Potential distribution models were obtained for Baja California Sur, Mexico, using the MaxLike algorithm. For each projection, we used bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim project for current and future conditions (2050 and 2070), two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and three General Circulation Models (ACCESS-CM2, EC-Earth3-Veg and MPI-ESM1-2-HR). The potential distribution models were developed within the perimeter of El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve as a case study to establish the potential for carbon sequestration under different climate change scenarios. Our results show a possible future carbon sequestration from 10,177,174 Mg of CO2 and up to 14,022,367 Mg of CO2 for the ACCESS-CM2 SSP5-8.5 to 2070 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP2-4.5 to 2070 projections, respectively. Mangrove species such as Rhizophora mangle can be an important part of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Revisiting <i>Loxanthocereus riomajensis</i>, lectotypification, biogeography and conservation status of an endemic species from Arequipa, Peru

This study aims to clarify the taxonomy of Loxanthocereus riomajensis, as well as to understand its actual and potential geographic distribution, and to present its conservation status. Specialized literature was reviewed, and field visits were conducted. The collected data, including herbarium samples, presence records, and additional information, were used to describe the species in detail, create a geographical distribution map, generate potential distribution models using the MaxEnt algorithm, and assess its conservation status using IUCN considerations. The results demonstrate that morphologically, L. riomajensis is an independent species endemic to the departament of Arequipa, found in the provinces of Condesuyos and Caylloma, spanning an altitudinal range from 1600 to 2100 m asl. The potential distribution covers an area of 1135.3 km2, in the provinces of Condesuyos, Castilla, La Unión, Caravelí, Caylloma, and Arequipa. Regarding its conservation status, it is classified as endangered (EN). Finally, a lectotype is designated.

The urban island: climatic suitability of Linepithema humile (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and the role of cities in the invasion of the Western Palearctic

AbstractUrban environments often present environmental conditions that facilitate the introduction and establishment of nonnative and invasive species. These can expand their range into areas with unfavorable climates by taking advantage of the ecological and climatic homogenization of cities, bypassing the ecological barriers presented by the surrounding environment. One way to monitor the expansion of these species is using potential distribution models. We used as a model species the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) whose invasion has caused serious consequences for biodiversity and economic losses worldwide. We used the average result of six different algorithms and used climatic variables and population density as a proxy for the urbanization level in the Western Palearctic to build the predictive model. The model indicates this ant prefers to inhabit areas with Mediterranean and Temperate Oceanic climates and that its suitability depends on two main factors: the continentality (temperature annual range) and the degree of urbanization. The species is predicted to be absent in areas with large temperature contrasts throughout the year, particularly in rural and peri‐urban areas (i.e. adjacent to urban areas) of inland regions. Conversely, the species has a predilection for coastal and urban areas where environmental conditions are attenuated by the influence of the sea or the “urban heat island” effect in the case of inland cities. In this sense, cities act as “bioclimatic islands” facilitating the establishment of the Argentine ant as a reservoir, enlarging its distribution into climatically nonoptimal areas, and promoting its future expansion in a scenario of global warming and socioeconomic change.

Wet creatures in a warming world: How climate change will impact the future distribution of anuran amphibians from Brazilian semiarid region?

The world has been going through a climate crisis that has led to a substantial increase in global temperatures. Consequently, amphibians, ectothermic animals that depend on water to survive/reproduce, are under increasing threat. In this research, we compared the influence of climate change on the geographic distribution between anuran species with occurrence restricted to the Brazilian semi-arid region (Caatinga domain) and widely distributed congeneric species, with occurrence in multiple biomes. We hypothesized that climate change would be more harmful for species of restricted distribution than for those widely distributed. For this purpose, using ecological niche modeling, we designed potential distribution models for current and four future climate scenarios, and compared two metrics (climatic suitability and index of extent of occurrence) between restricted and widely distributed species. The results revealed that the climatic suitability did not differ among current climatic conditions and those expected for 2050 and 2090, nor differed between species with distribution restricted to the Caatinga and widely distributed ones. On the other hand, contrary to our predictions, while species with wide distributions would tend to retract their extent of occurrence in future times, species with restricted distributions would expand their ranges. These results suggest that species with current distribution restricted to Caatinga biome might be relatively favored by the climate changes predicted for the next 80 years. However, we discuss that this result should be interpreted with very caution, because many ecological and conservation requirements need to be guaranteed so that these predictions can actually occur. Our findings contributed to the understanding of the effects of climate change on closely related taxa, with different distribution patterns, revealing particularities of the anuran amphibians that occur in semi-arid environments in response to climate changes predicted for this century.

A unified model for mechanical deformations of single stranded DNA-microbeam biosensors considering surface charge effects

A unified energy model for mechanical deformation of the microbeam included by single stranded DNA (ssDNA) adsorption considering the surface charge density on substrate is investigated. First, a free energy model is established to quantify the deflection and axial displacement of the microbeam, the ion concentration in the solution, as well as the electric potential distribution inside and outside the ssDNA film with a uniform surface charge density. Then, the governing equations and corresponding boundary conditions are obtained by minimizing the free energy with three types of variational variables. And, the relationship of the electric potential difference between the two sides of the ssDNA film and the deformation of microcantilever and simply support beam are determined in different solutions (1: 1, 1: 2, 1: 3). Moreover, the numerical solutions of the electric potential distribution inside and outside the ssDNA film are investigated by using the finite difference method and Newton's iteration method. The results suggest that the nonlinear model for electric potential distribution should be used under higher surface charge density. By fitting and comparing the present predictions with Arroyo-Hernandez's experimental data, the effectiveness of the model is verified. The study shows that the surface charge density can modulate the magnitude and direction of ssDNA-microbeam deformation, which also indicates that there exists a critical surface charge density, causing the failure of ssDNA-microbeam detection. These conclusions are helpful for designing the efficient biosensors based on DNA-microbeam.

The sensitivity analysis using adjoint method in numerical modeling of electric potential distribution of the transmission lines

AbstractThis paper proposes a new methodology for sensitivity analysis evaluation, fast and with high precision of the electric potential distribution near the transmission lines (TL's). The TL is modeled by the finite element method and the sensitivity of the cable positions is obtained using the adjoint method. The sensitivity of the objective function during the optimization process by using methods based on gradient information is obtained by using the adjoint method. The exact sensitivity obtained by the adjoint method concerning the numeric model of the TL's results in new geometries of the bundles conductors with high surge impedance loading. These geometries are not possible to get using analytic models. The sensitivities of a large number of conductors by phase are obtained with high precision and very low computational cost using adjoint sensitivities, which are independent of the number of design variables. The central finite difference method is used to calculate the sensitivities and to validate the adjoint method. With this methodology, the FEM model of the TL can be used during the optimization process without compromising the required computational processing time.

Distribution widening of a ground-nesting social bee across Europe favored by climate change and urban setting

Climate change and/or land use change were repeatedly reported as important for both range expansion of alien bee species and range shrinking for native bee species. However, environmental changes may also positively affect native species that may expand across contiguous areas to their native ones. Here, we focused on Halictus scabiosae (Rossi, 1790) (Hymenoptera: Halictidae), a ground-nesting, primitively eusocial wild bee that has its primary distribution in Western-Southern Europe but that was recently recorded in Eastern-Central Europe. In particular, we studied the range expansion patterns of H. scabiosae, and we hypothesized that previously unsuitable areas may be currently colonized because of environmental changes. In the last 5 years, H. scabiosae moved its densest record areas to North-Eastern Europe, but its ecological niche remained almost unchanged from 1970 to date, suggesting that this bee species is following its preferred conditions (high temperature, high temperature seasonality, and low precipitation seasonality). Potential distribution models revealed high suitability in still unoccupied North-Eastern areas, with urbanization increasingly important as potential stepping stones towards the expansion. The relevant role of urbanization is confirmed by the increase in the number of urban records through time and by the fact that cities with greater population density and greater fragmentation are more likely associated with this species’ occurrence. Halictus scabiosae is thus expanding its range because climate change is producing—and urban environment is offering—suitable conditions in areas previously inadequate for its establishment.

Identification of priority areas for the restoration of high Andean mountain forests under climate change: a case study using potential distribution models

Paleontological studies in the central Andes have uncovered the vulnerability of Polylepis forests to climate shifts, attributed to limited seed dispersal capabilities and the rugged terrain. Given the ecological significance of these forests‐forming species as biodiversity hotspots and carbon sinks, their restoration is imperative for the preservation of endemic species and ecosystem services. At the extreme south of the genus' range, we find Polylepis australis, a forest‐forming tree species endemic to Argentina and uniquely extending beyond the Andes into the Sierras Grandes of the Córdoba province. This study utilizes potential distribution models to help inform on restoration strategies considering projected future climate scenarios. Employing Maxent 3.4.3 with 453 presence locations, we estimated a present potential distribution spanning 13,923 km2. Our analysis of future climate projections reveals important poleward contractions alongside minor uphill shifts (20 m above sea level), ultimately resulting in a net habitat loss of 4596 km2 (34%). This underscores the critical role of climate simulations in identifying species specific priority sites for restoration efforts and also highlighting Polylepis forests susceptibility to both climate change and anthropogenic impacts.

Role of climate change on Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis L.): Modeling and mapping

Global climate change is a process with dramatic consequences for ecosystems, and changes that may occur in the potential distribution of plant communities especially draw attention. This study aimed to reveal the potential distribution modeling and mapping of the Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis L.), distributed in a limited area, using current and future (year 2100) climate scenarios in Turkey. The maximum entropy method for potential distribution and Chelsa V2.1 technical specification IPSL-CM6A-LR scenarios (SSP126-SSP370-SSP585) were preferred to reveal the effect of climate change. Results for the current were in the “excellent” category with training and test data AUC 0.981 and 0.977, respectively. The variables contributing to the model were the precipitation amount of the driest month, mean diurnal air temperature range, annual precipitation amount, and mean annual air temperature. Variables contributing to the current model were analysed using the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios of the year 2100. It was assessed that the potential distribution for 2100 decreases according to SSP126, was fragmented according to SSP370, and decreased according to the SSP585 scenario. As a result, the authors determined that the high potential distribution is reduced 61% when the current mapping of Oriental spruce is compared with the SSP585 mapping.

Habitat connectivity of threatened ungulate species in a native savanna landscape of northern South America

AbstractThe native savanna ecosystem of the Orinoquia region is the habitat of 50% of the wild ungulate species reported for Colombia. Over the last 20 years, this high species diversity has been strongly threatened by the human transformation of the natural land cover causing connectivity loss of the habitats. The Orinoquia region lacks a biological connectivity analysis with a multi-species approach involving species groups that are representative of the savanna ecosystem such as the ungulates. Understanding the spatial distributions of suitable areas and the main habitats that act as primary habitats for ungulate species in these landscapes is fundamental for the design of conservation strategies. We use an occurrence dataset for lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) in the development of species’ potential distribution models, binarization process, and morphological spatial pattern analysis. This information was used for the modeling of dispersal corridors connecting the core habitats of the ungulate focal species using the randomized shortest path algorithm and quantifying the weighted global connectivity metrics. Our results suggest an integral corridor with potential least-cost dispersal routes between the native savanna landscape on the middle basins of the savanna rivers and the Meta River. These areas associated with the fluvial dendritic systems are connected, while the core habitats in the eastern part of the savanna landscape are disconnected. We discuss how the application of such knowledge on the spatial ecology of ungulate focal species might improve the management of the metapopulations in the Orinoquia region.

Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae).

Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.

Spacial distribution and suitability for Panonychus ulmi (Tetranychidae) in Brazil

Predictive studies project the geographic distribution of species and can be used to infer climatic niches. However, only a few studies have been conducted on mites. This approach helps map areas with potential for the occurrence of endemic, threatened, or potentially invasive species. Panonychus ulmi (Tetranychidae) is of global economic importance, commonly associated with apple orchards and grapevines. Potential distribution modeling is used to predict areas with environmental suitability for the distribution of a species and/or group. Considering that predictive models on national or regional scales present better data reliability, the present study aimed to analyze the distribution of P. ulmi in Brazil through bioclimatic inferences. The presence of species, bioclimatic variables, and MaxEnt algorithm were used to define a predictive model. The median performance rate of the model was 0.992, indicating its robustness. The variable that made the greatest contribution to the model was the average temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). The predictive model of the ecological niche indicated that the southern region of Brazil is environmentally favorable for the adaptation of this mite. The data obtained helped us understand the geographical distribution of P. ulmi in Brazil, and climatically suitable areas for its occurrence were inferred. We believe that this tool can offer indirect assistance to the agricultural sector, especially the producers of apples and grapes in Brazil regarding the presence of P. ulmi.

Distribución geográfica y estado de conservación del cactus endémico <i>Austrocylindropuntia pachypus</i> y nuevos registros para el sur del Perú

Austrocylindropuntia pachypus (K.Schum.) Backeb. it is an endemic cactus whose distribution was restricted to the western slopes of La Libertad, Ancash, Lima; and based on botanical expeditions through the Andean foothills of Ica, new records are reported with reduced populations of A. pachypus, which makes it possible to extend its known distribution to southern Peru by more than 260 km; in addition, based on 35 georeferenced records, information is presented on their locations, populations, potential distribution, habitats, threats, and the conservation status was analyzed. The potential distribution model shows high predictive or suitability levels with AUC values = 0.96 based on seven climatic variables (Bio17, Bio2 and Bio7 being the ones with the greatest contribution), with the departments with the highest suitability values being: Lima, Ancash, Lambayeque, La Libertad, Huancavelica and Ica. The localities where they are most concentrated and in turn are seriously disturbed by anthropogenic activities are the valleys of the Chillon river (Santa Rosa de Quives - Canta) and Rimac (Santa Eulalia - Huarochiri) in Lima; due to this, almost 70% of the records and populations of A. pachypus are threatened by mining rights, hydrocarbon extraction, overgrazing, and urban or agricultural expansion, which increases the fragmentation of their habitats and isolates the few populations of A. pachypus, therefore, it is proposed to categorize this endemic cactus as Endangered (EN).

Confidence and consistency in discrimination: A new family of evaluation metrics for potential distribution models

Potential distribution models (PDMs) are widely applied to understand and predict biogeographic patterns. PDM evaluation, however, presents major challenges, including (1) matches of predictions with observed absences and presences being treated similarly and (2) treatment of predicted presences falling outside the observations as errors, while a major motivation of PDMs is to identify such locations. Our aim was to construct a family of model performance metrics to measure the reliability and transferability of PDMs while providing solutions to the problems mentioned above.Instead of binarisation, predictions are reclassified into three categories for model evaluation: certain negative, uncertain and certain positive predictions. Model performance is tested solely within known presences to reduce the effect of unoccupied but suitable sites registered as observed absences. Metrics were developed for both cases: (1) when the target of the modelling is the identification of potential presence locations and (2) when the target is the evaluation of potential presences and absences equally.The new measures offer evaluation optimised for PDM models. On the one hand, (1) the proposed metrics concentrate on matches within observed presences. Thus, matches within the typically large amount of observed absences do not inflate the metric values. On the other hand, (2) the proposed metrics do not treat all mismatches within observed presences as errors and thus allow exploitation of information in the mismatches, too. Besides the theoretical background, we also provide a new R package for calculating the measures.We tested the metrics both on field and simulation data. Both field-based and simulation-based case studies underlined that the new metrics capture a different aspect of model performance than the traditional metrics, such as AUC, TSS, sensitivity and specificity.We conclude that our metrics help to identify whether the modelling process could capture the preferences of the object well enough to reliably find further suitable sites or stay reliable when transferred in space and time.

Potential Regeneration and Spatial Distribution model of Saurauia pendula Blume in Mount Slamet, Central Java

Saurauia pendula Blume is a species of genus Saurauia and belong to Actinidiaceae family. Saurauia pendula spread over on several highlands or mountains in Java Island. Mount Slamet is the second highest mountain on Java with naturally good vegetations. The existence of several threats such as forest fires, destruction, deforestation and forest degradation has caused the condition of these plant species to begin to require attention. This study aims to determine the population of S. pendula, its potential regeneration and spatial distribution model in Mount Slamet area. The study was conducted on four (north, south, west and east) slopes in 2019-2020. Research on population conditions was carried out by following hiking trails and making new paths around the center of suitable habitat. Coordinate data is taken to make spatial analysis using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The results showed that the number of S. pendula was found on the north, west and south slopes at an altitude of 1010-2024 masl. This species has a significant association with Saurauia microphylla de Vriese., Glochidion obscurum (Roxb. ex Willd.) Blume and Castanopsis argentea. The number of mature plants is 106 individuals, which have important role in the distribution of this plant. Analysis of the spatial distribution model shows that S. pendula is estimated to be widely distributed on the western slopes of Mount Slamet.

Biogeography, speciation and niche evolution of doraditos (Aves: Pseudocolopteryx)

AbstractEcological and geographical factors shape the current distribution of species. Analysing their interplay in a phylogenetic framework is key to understand the historical processes that have shaped the evolution of a group. Here, we modelled the ecological niches and geographic distributions of the five species of doraditos (Pseudocolopteryx spp.) to study their biogeographic histories, niche evolution and speciation process in a phylogenetic framework. Our potential distribution models uncovered novel range‐wide distributional patterns and seasonal movements in the doraditos, where four species are migratory with distinct breeding and non‐breeding distributions, and one (P. sclateri) exhibits a complex spatiotemporal distribution indicating nomadism. Ecological niche pairwise comparisons showed that none of the doraditos have equivalent niches and that niche differences are due to species‐specific habitat preferences. Phylogenetically weighted geographical and ecological analyses showed patterns of allopatric speciation and niche lability in the evolution of doraditos. The divergence of P. sclateri seems tied to its tropical‐to‐temperate wetland specialization. The montane P. acutipennis expanded to human‐modified lowlands following speciation, highlighting the need to control for post‐speciational changes in ecological niche comparisons as done here. In turn, P. dinelliana, P. citreola and P. flaviventris showed essentially allopatric breeding distributions, as a product of environmentally mediated divergence during their speciation processes. The distribution and migration data of the recently diverged cryptic sister species P. citreola and P. flaviventris are consistent with two possible speciation scenarios: peripatric speciation and migration dosing speciation.

Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia.

Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored.

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

BackgroundCorybas taliensis is an endemic species of sky islands in China. Its habitat is fragile and unstable, and it is likely that the species is threatened. However, it is difficult to determine the conservation priority or unit without knowing the genetic background and the overall distribution of this species. In this study, we used double digest restriction-site associated DNA-sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to investigate the conservation genomics of C. taliensis. At the same time, we modeled the extent of suitable habitat for C. taliensis in present and future (2030 and 2090) habitat using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model.ResultsThe results suggested that the related C. fanjingshanensis belongs to C. taliensis and should not be considered a separate species. All the sampling locations were divided into three genetic groups: the Sichuan & Guizhou population (SG population), the Hengduan Mountains population (HD population) and Himalayan population (HM population), and we found that there was complex gene flow between the sampling locations of HD population. MT was distinct genetically from the other sampling locations due to the unique environment in Motuo. The genetic diversity (π, He) of C. taliensis was relatively high, but its contemporary effective population size (Ne) was small. C. taliensis might be currently affected by inbreeding depression, although its large population density may be able to reduce the effect of this. The predicted areas of suitable habitat currently found in higher mountains will not change significantly in the future, and these suitable habitats are predicted to spread to other higher mountains under future climate change. However, suitable habitat in relatively low altitude areas may disappear in the future. This suggests that C. taliensis will be caught in a ‘summit trap’ in low altitude areas, however, in contrast, the high altitude of the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to act as ‘biological refuges’ for C. taliensis in the future.ConclusionsThese results not only provide a new understanding of the genetic background and potential resource distribution of C. taliensis, but also lay the foundation for its conservation and management.