Planning Model Research Articles

A planning model for coal power exit scales based on minimizing idle and shortage losses: A case study of China

Owing to the rising energy demand and coal dependency in developing countries, the losses incurred from coal power exit are substantial, leading to a low willingness to exit and a high risk of tragedy of the commons. Concurrently, the normalization of peak loads and increasing penetration of renewable energy have exacerbated the contradiction between the overall electricity surplus and peak power shortages in these countries. In response to these challenges, we propose an optimal planning model for a coal power exit scale based on the minimization of losses from idle coal power and industrial power shortages. The main findings are presented as follows: First, compared with the coal power exit models guided by the energy trilemma, our model can reduce losses (the primary demand in developing countries) by at least 22 %, and, in some scenarios, it can increase the exit scale by up to 147 GW. Second, unlike existing methods that measure the overall impact of power shortages, our approach is better at capturing industries' production loss characteristics, which is important for developing countries (positioned in the production segment of the industrial chain), including the evolution patterns of resource and time losses, recovery trajectories of power interruptions, and main influencing factors. Third, China's optimal coal power exit scale for 2030 fluctuates between −7 and 282 GW, with total losses between 48.34 and 188.86 billion yuan. This study provides quantitative tools and decision-making references for optimizing coal power exit and power use.

A Study of the Improved A* Algorithm Incorporating Road Factors for Path Planning in Off-Road Emergency Rescue Scenarios.

To address the problem of ignoring unpaved roads when planning off-road emergency rescue paths, an improved A* algorithm that incorporates road factors is developed to create an off-road emergency rescue path planning model in this study. To reduce the number of search nodes and improve the efficiency of path searches, the current node is classified according to the angle between the line connecting the node and the target point and the due east direction. Additionally, the search direction is determined in real time through an optimization method to improve the path search efficiency. To identify the path with the shortest travel time suitable for emergency rescue in wilderness scenarios, a heuristic function based on the fusion of road factors and a path planning model for off-road emergency rescue is developed, and the characteristics of existing roads are weighted in the process of path searching to bias the selection process toward unpaved roads with high accessibility. The experiments show that the improved A* algorithm significantly reduces the travel time of off-road vehicles and that path selection is enhanced compared to that with the traditional A* algorithm; moreover, the improved A* algorithm reduces the number of nodes by 16.784% and improves the search efficiency by 27.18% compared with the traditional 16-direction search method. The simulation results indicate that the improved algorithm reduces the travel time of off-road vehicles by 21.298% and improves the search efficiency by 93.901% compared to the traditional A* algorithm, thus greatly enhancing off-road path planning.

A double-layer optimization strategy for distribution networks considering 5G base station clusters

The reliability of the power supply for 5G base stations (BSs) is increasing. A large amount of BS backup energy storage (BES) remains underutilized. This study establishes a double-layer optimization distribution network (DN) considering BS clusters. An energy consumption characteristics and scheduling ability model of the BSs was established to address the differences in the characteristics of different traffic flows. A double-tier planning model for BS-joining grid market ancillary services is proposed. The upper-layer model addresses optimal tidal flow problems in DNs to minimize integrated operating costs, while the lower-layer model focuses on BES economic optimization. The double-layer model changes into a single-layer linear model using the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) condition and the Big M method. Simulation validation using the IEEE-33 node DN proves that this approach can reduce DN operating costs, regulate voltage fluctuations, and guarantee economical and safe DN operation.

SDO: A novel sled dog-inspired optimizer for solving engineering problems

A new bio-inspired meta-heuristic algorithm, named Sled Dog Optimizer (SDO), is proposed in this paper. The inspiration for SDO is primarily drawn from the various behavioral patterns of sled dogs. It focuses on constructing mathematical models by simulating the process of dog sledding, training and retiring behaviors. The mutual constraints of multiple steps and the variation of several parameters make the exploitation and exploration capabilities of SDO well balanced. To test the ability of SDO, this paper sets up several different sets of experiments to be analyzed from a number of different aspects. First, SDO is qualitatively analyzed through several performance metrics, which include search history, search trajectory and population diversity. Second, SDO is compared with several novel and excellent metaheuristics at CEC 2017 as well as CEC 2020. The results show that SDO has extremely good performance in solving unconstrained optimization problems. SDO is then further applied to the CEC 2020 real-world problem test set to test its ability to solve real-world optimization problems with constraints. Finally, this paper extends and proposes a new path planning model to which SDO is applied. In these problems with constraints, SDO performs well and has a promising application. SDO demonstrates outstanding control of exploration and exploitation capabilities in all experiments. It can be said that SDO promotes the progress of meta-heuristic algorithms and provides another new powerful technology for complex optimization problems in the real world.

How to choose mobile energy storage or fixed energy storage in high proportion renewable energy scenarios: Evidence in China

With the large-scale integration of renewable energy and changes in load characteristics, the power system is facing challenges of volatility and instability. Therefore, enhancing the safe and stable operation capability of the power system is an urgent problem that needs to be solved. Mobile energy storage can improve system flexibility, stability, and regional connectivity, and has the potential to serve as a supplement or even substitute for fixed energy storage in the future. However, there are few studies that comprehensively evaluate the operational performance and economy of fixed and mobile energy storage systems. To comprehensively evaluate the economic benefits of large-scale mobile energy storage systems, this paper constructs an overall horizontal cost model for energy storage systems that considers the power system and train transportation system. This model not only introduces the traditional concept of lifecycle cost of energy storage systems, but also considers the costs of traditional transmission lines and battery transportation. Secondly, to achieve simulation of large-scale mobile energy storage system planning and operation, this paper establishes a multi-region power planning and operation simulation (MPO) model and a battery transportation and logistics (BTL) model to accurately reflect the operation mode of fixed energy storage and mobile energy storage in the power system. Finally, taking the actual power grids and railway networks in Northeast and North China as case studies, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the technical, economic, and environmental performance of large fixed and mobile energy storage systems, and conducts a detailed comparison. The research results indicate that under high grid connection ratios (using 75% and 66% as examples), the overall cost of mobile energy storage systems continues to decrease to 1.42 CNY/kWh and 0.98 CNY/kWh. Compared to fixed energy storage at 5.45 CNY/kWh and 4.79 CNY/kWh, it has an absolute economic advantage and shows significant carbon reduction capabilities, reaching 241,800 to 1,394,600 tons. This discovery fully confirms the enormous potential and application value of mobile energy storage in high proportion renewable energy scenarios, providing strong technical support and economic analysis basis for the sustainable development of the power system.

Multi-Objective Real-Time Planning of Evacuation Routes for Underground Mine Fires

When a fire occurs underground, pre-existing emergency escape routes may become ineffective. Such scenarios necessitate the real-time planning of escape routes that consider evolving conditions and prioritize safety. This paper proposes a multi-objective real-time search method for emergency escape routes using dynamic programming to address these challenges. Firstly, this paper discusses how the evacuation of an underground mine fire caused by external factors depends on the fire monitoring system, personnel positioning system, and emergency evacuation system, as well as the modeling and solution methods of evacuation route planning. Then, based on fire smoke, CO, and temperature sensor data from the mine ventilation network structure and monitoring system, the possible smoke spread in the event of an underground fire was calculated. The objectives are to optimize both the shortest equivalent length of the path and the shortest time to walk through the smoke flow while ensuring that temporary escape time does not exceed the rated protection time of the self-rescuer. A mathematical model for emergency escape route planning is established under these conditions. A labeling algorithm based on dynamic programming is employed to find the Pareto optimal solution set of emergency evacuation routes that meet emergency requirements. Finally, two path evaluation indicators, namely “escape target priority” and “personnel temporary escape time”, are introduced to re-rank the solutions in the Pareto optimal set, thereby obtaining disaster evacuation routes with different priorities. Example verification shows that the algorithm can quickly solve the disaster evacuation routes that meet the actual disaster evacuation needs in complex networks. Example verification shows that the algorithm can quickly solve the emergency escape routes in complex networks that meet actual emergency escape needs.

Optimizing cropping patterns and resource allocation for sustainable agricultural development: A case study of Ilam province, Iran

Establishing connections between ecosystems and agricultural mechanization can help address erroneous decision-making in agricultural management and prevent further harm to ecosystems. It is essential for authorities and decision-makers in the agricultural sector to understand ecosystem dynamics and influencing factors to develop appropriate policies for sustainable development. This study focuses on identifying optimal conditions for determining crop patterns and input allocation in Ilam province's agricultural practices, considering technical and energy parameters. Cultivating one hectare of wheat and barley in the region requires an average energy consumption of 1.79 GJ from various sources, with an estimated energy output of 38.04 GJ ha−1 for these crops. The research involved farmers cultivating wheat, barley, fodder maize, and canola in the southern region of Ilam province, covering cities like Abdanan, Dareshahr, and Dehloran. The study suggests adjustments to cropping patterns, including reducing wheat cultivation and increasing irrigated fodder maize cultivation under optimal conditions. It also recommends exploring rainfed cultivation or enhancing the yield of rainfed wheat to offset the reduced wheat cultivation. The goal planning model indicates a shift towards sustainability, with changes in cropping patterns focusing on wheat, barley, fodder maize, and canola crops, including expanding the cultivation areas of irrigated wheat, barley, and fodder maize. Efforts aim to enhance the productivity of irrigated crops to promote sustainability and improve agricultural practices in the province for long-term sustainability goals.

Machine Learning-Enhanced Benders Decomposition Approach for the Multi-Stage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Planning Problem

The necessary decarbonization efforts in energy sectors entail integrating flexible assets and increased levels of uncertainty for the planning and operation of power systems. To cope with this in a cost-effective manner, transmission expansion planning (TEP) models need to incorporate progressively more details to represent potential long-term system developments and the operation of power grids with intermittent renewable generation. However, the increased modeling complexities of TEP exercises can easily lead to computationally intractable optimization problems. Currently, most techniques that address computational intractability alter the original problem, thus neglecting critical modeling aspects or affecting the structure of the optimal solution. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to significantly alleviate the computational burden of large-scale TEP problems. Our approach integrates machine learning (ML) with the well-established Benders decomposition to manage the problem size while preserving solution quality. The proposed ML-enhanced Multicut Benders Decomposition algorithm improves computational efficiency by identifying effective and ineffective optimality cuts via supervised learning techniques. We illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology by solving multi-stage TEP problems of different sizes based on the IEEE24 and IEEE118 test systems, while also considering energy storage investment options..

Optimal allocation of wind-based distributed generators and STATCOMs using a hierarchical stochastic programming approach

Allocating static synchronous compensators (STATCOMs) to regulate given allotted wind-based distributed generators (W-DGs) during planning stages can provide high investment returns by maximizing the installed W-DGs. Amidst rising global warming concerns, commitments to adopt renewable energy gain international momentum to curb greenhouse emissions and meet environmental targets, reducing reliance on fossil-based resources. Renewable energy's intermittency complicates distribution planning, stressing voltage devices and increasing network losses. This paper presents a new hierarchical stochastic planning model that addresses uncertainties related to W-DGs and generic loads. The model optimizes allocation with voltage constraints and reactive power while incorporating a two-stage mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP), maximizing net profit, and adding an economic dimension to promote renewable energy investments. Improved wind power modeling with historical data and collective evaluation metrics for selecting the best-fitted probability distribution function (PDF) enhances the accuracy of wind power integration assessment. The hierarchical approach considers relaxed voltage constraints in Stage I to allow maximum allotment of W-DGs while introducing STATCOMs and DGs' reactive power in Stage II to address voltage violations. Verification on the Canadian 41-bus network demonstrates the advantage of the hierarchical approach in allocating more W-DGs and achieving higher profits than the simultaneous planning approach. These advances significantly enhance renewable energy integration in power systems.

Techno-economic analysis of mixed battery and fuel cell electric bus fleets: A case study

Electric city buses are promising to reduce traffic-related emissions in city centres as their drive train emits zero local emissions in an urban context. However, battery electric buses (BEBs) have limited driving range and long charging times. Although this can be managed, as city buses operate on predetermined routes, fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) can meet more operational requirements in terms of range and charging. Thus, many bus network operators want to design a mixed full electric bus network with BEBs and FCEBs, which involves several complex and interdependent planning tasks. We extend an existing planning model to accommodate the planning of BEBs and FCEBs with their respective charging and fuelling infrastructure, and apply it to a real-world case study. Our results indicate that a heterogeneous BEB fleet with a mix of depot and opportunity charging results in lower total costs than a depot charging concept or a homogeneous FCEB fleet. We additionally find that a heterogeneous fleet including FCEBs and BEBs with a mix of charging concepts can be beneficial under specific circumstances. More specifically, the results indicate, that FCEB are a viable technology to supplement full electric bus fleets as soon as the costs for FCEB fall below 625,000€or the costs for hydrogen fall below 4.33 €/kg H2. Interestingly, rising energy prices would not increase the utilization of FCEBs, but rather influence the choice of BEB-types.

The Use of 3D Printing in Fetal Surgery for Surgical Planning: A Scoping Review.

Objectives: We sought to identify in which clinical scenarios 3D printed models are used to plan for fetal surgeries as well as the main purpose and the imaging method utilized for the models. In addition, we describe benefits and shortcomings of the models, as well as potential future improvements. Methods: In this scoping review, data were collected retrospectively from scientific databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, Scopus, and the Web of Science platform) and screened by title, abstract, and full text against strict criteria. The inclusion criteria required the study be performed on a live fetus and involve 3D models used for fetal surgery. The models must have been designed from diagnostic imaging modalities such as CT, MRI, or ultrasound. The articles considered include clinical trials, review articles, cohort studies, case series, case reports, and conference abstracts. Results: Of the initial 742 articles collected, six met the inclusion criteria. Spina bifida and EXIT procedures were the most frequent use cases that inspired surgeons to print models for surgical planning. The ability to view patient-specific anatomy in a 3D handheld model was often touted as providing a great benefit to the surgical team's ability to anticipate intraoperative challenges. Conclusions: Three-dimensional printing models have been applied to plan for fetal surgeries, more specifically, for EXIT procedures and fetoscopic surgical repair of spina bifida. The potential benefits of 3D printing in fetal surgery are enormous.

Generating high-resolution land use and land cover maps for the greater Mariño watershed in 2019 with machine learning

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps are important tools for environmental planning and social-ecological modeling, as they provide critical information for evaluating risks, managing natural resources, and facilitating effective decision-making. This study aimed to generate a very high spatial resolution (0.5 m) and detailed (21 classes) LULC map for the greater Mariño watershed (Peru) in 2019, using the MORINGA processing chain. This new method for LULC mapping consisted in a supervised object-based LULC classification, using the random forest algorithm along with multi-sensor satellite imagery from which spectral and textural predictors were derived (a very high spatial resolution Pléiades image and a time serie of high spatial resolution Sentinel-2 images). The random forest classifier showed a very good performance and the LULC map was further improved through additional post-treatment steps that included cross-checking with external GIS data sources and manual correction using photointerpretation, resulting in a more accurate and reliable map. The final LULC provides new information for environmental management and monitoring in the greater Mariño watershed. With this study we contribute to the efforts to develop standardized and replicable methodologies for high-resolution and high-accuracy LULC mapping, which is crucial for informed decision-making and conservation strategies.

A multiobjective [formula omitted]-constraint based approach for the robust master surgical schedule under multiple uncertainties

The efficient scheduling of elective surgeries in hospitals is critical for ensuring patient satisfaction, cost-effectiveness, and overall operational efficiency. However, operating theater (OT) managers face complex and competing scheduling problems due to numerous sources of uncertainty and the impact of the proposed schedule on downstream recovery units, such as the intensive care unit (ICU). To address these challenges, this study develops a multiobjective robust planning model for the weekly Master Surgical Schedule (MSS) under multiple uncertainties. The model takes into account patient priority, assignment cost and workload balancing, while also considering the constraints of the OT, surgeon availabilities, downstream resources, and the uncertainty of surgery duration and patients’ length of stay (LOS) in the ICU. To evaluate the robust solutions, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the risk of constraint violations, and an adapted ϵ-constraint algorithm is used for the four-objective problem to compute the Pareto front and calculate the hypervolume for every degree of uncertainty. This provides a comprehensive decision tool for OT decision makers and allows for the comparison of various scenarios in terms of the number of scheduled patients, canceled patients, and the utilization rate of the OT.

Towards an Urban Planning Scenario Model System—A Tool for Exploring Urban Uncertainty: A Case Study of Diaozhen, China

The ‘Urban Interaction’ project aims to develop an urban planning model system at the scale of towns or small cities consisting of three modules: growth forecast, land-use decision, and evaluation. This paper presents the framework of the model system to identify and discuss the assumptions and theoretical basis of the model system. The model system will be driven by scenario planning theory and sustainable urban development principles. It will export land-use planning based on selected urban development scenarios and urban planning theories. This paper takes Diao Town in Jinan as an example. Applying GIS spatial analysis and hierarchical analysis, this paper determines the suitability of land use and the weights of different influencing factors, combined with the land-use conflict identification model, for land-use decision-making. Finally, the assessment module verifies whether the planning scheme complies with laws and regulations to achieve an active, reactive response to uncertainty. The paper discusses the ‘uncertainty’ of urban planning and proposes a creative, flexible, and timely planning platform that allows planners and other participants to model and visualize their scenarios.

Shifts in planning tradition amid an economic crisis and in light of a planning reform: the case of Greece

ABSTRACT Planning tradition is contextually changing in response to the political, social and economic environment. The economic crisis of the previous decade challenged the conventional Greek planning and governance model, by introducing new planning instruments that changed the balance of public- and private-sector involvement in the planning process. These shifts engendered planning dysfunctions, as the new and existing instruments functioned in competition. The planning reform currently being implemented reinforces public planning and the concentration of power at the central government level, with the state being called upon to address long-standing deficiencies in the consistency of planning policy, efficiency and feasibility.

A collaborative planning model of IES containing EHs and multi-energy grids under the premise of demand response as well as wind power uncertainty

The proliferation of renewable energy resources and the incorporation of various types of energy bring opportunities as well as new challenges to the planning and operations within integrated energy systems (IESs). To better characterize multiple uncertain variables within IES, reducing wind power curtailment and minimizing costs, this paper proposes an IES collaborative planning model with EHs, in which uncertain variables are depicted by Z-numbers. Firstly, Z-number incorporates both fuzzy and probabilistic uncertainties, allowing the representation of uncertain variables with credibility information in constraints. Secondly, simplifying Z-numbers into an engineering-applicable method reduces the complexity of model resolution. Thirdly, to fully leverage the complementary transformation characteristics among different energy sources, the optimization model includes decisions on the capacity of energy conversion and energy storage components within EHs. Moreover, outside the EHs, conventional generator dispatches, and the hardening of electric-gas grid decisions are also included. Finally, the model is verified on an IES that involves the coupling of a six-node power system and a six-node gas system, and numerical results validate that wind power output values represented by Z-numbers have a standard deviation of only 0.33 from actual values. Furthermore, different credibility information in Z-numbers significantly impacts planning outcomes; an increased DR credibility can be conducive to reducing wind curtailment with 45KW and help cost-savings with 4.05%.

A multi‐objective interval optimization approach to expansion planning of active distribution system with distributed internet data centers and renewable energy resources

AbstractWith the development of the digital economy, the power demand for data centers (DCs) is rising rapidly, which presents a challenge to the economic and low‐carbon operation of the future distribution system. To this end, this paper fully considers the multiple flexibility of DC and its impact on the active distribution network, and establishes a collaborative planning model of DC and active distribution network. Differing from most existing studies that apply robust optimization or stochastic optimization for uncertainty characterization, this study employs a novel interval optimization approach to capture the inherent uncertainties within the system (including the renewable energy source (RES) generation, electricity price, electrical loads, emissions factor and workloads). Subsequently, the planning model is reformulated as the interval multi‐objective optimization problem (IMOP) to minimize economic cost and carbon emission. On this basis, instead of using a conventional deterministic‐conversion approach, an interval multi‐objective optimization evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (IMOEA/D) is proposed to solve the proposed IMOP, which is able to fully preserve the uncertainty inherent in interval‐typed information and allow to obtain an interval‐formed Pareto front for risk‐averse decision‐making. Finally, an IEEE 33‐node active distribution network is utilized for simulation and analysis to confirm the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Strategic location model for oil spill response vessels (OSRVs) considering oil transportation and weather uncertainties

In the event of oil spills in offshore oil and gas projects, containment and dispersion equipment must be sent to the affected areas within a critical time by vessels known as oil spill response vessels (OSRVs). Here, we developed an optimization tool, integrated with an oil spill trajectory simulation model, both in deterministic and stochastic alternatives, to support decision-making during the strategic planning of OSRV operations. The tool was constructed in Python using GNOME for oil spill simulations and the GUROBI to solve the optimization model. The tool was applied to a case study in Brazil and afforded relevant recommendations. In terms of research contributions, we proved the viability of the integration between oil spill simulation and mathematical modeling for OSRV strategic operation planning, we explored the stochasticity of the problem with an innovative strategy and we demonstrated flexibility and easy applicability of the framework on real operations.

Integrated optimization of train stop planning and seat allocation for high-speed railways based on active management for dynamic demand

ABSTRACT Proactive demand management methods can achieve a trade-off between supply and demand for high-speed railways. Focusing on multi-type demand configurations, four active demand management methods were designed, two single-scenario and two multi-scenario methods. An optimization model of stop planning and seat allocation was constructed to minimize the difference between demand and supply, number of trains, and train-stop costs. The number of train stops, transport capacity, and train occupancy rates were considered. Particle swarm optimization and CPLEX were combined to handle this significant linear programming problem. A real case study of different demand scenarios based on the Hohhot-Beijing high-speed railway in China verified the feasibility of active demand management methods. The results indicate that integrated optimization can be justified with mixed load patterns. Compared with the original scheme, the optimized scheme reduced the number of trains by 23.4% and increased train occupancy rate by more than 36.7%.

A data-driven model for the operation and management of prosumer markets in electric smart grids

The digital transformation of electric power systems requires forecasts and planning for optimal management, as well as real-time data streaming for the ongoing optimization of the system during operation. Recent research efforts have developed models for power system capacity planning, real-time monitoring and control, fault analysis, and energy efficiency assessment. However, those models are usually not integrated and do not combine operational data with management information and real-time decision-making. This paper conceives a data-driven model that integrates optimization and machine learning techniques for optimal operation and management of prosumer markets in electric smart grids. While classical optimization is used during day-ahead mode for operation planning, Gaussian Processes are used to predict demand forecasts for day-ahead and pre-dispatch modes while assimilating real-time measurements. The proposed approach is applied in a case study comprising a community manager coordinating a smart grid with prosumers operating thermal and renewable generators. Results highlight that the data-driven model helps achieve near-optimal operation of the smart grid in normal conditions while guaranteeing its reliability under disruptive events.