Food Web Model Research Articles

Detecting disturbances in network-coupled dynamical systems with machine learning.

Identifying disturbances in network-coupled dynamical systems without knowledge of the disturbances or underlying dynamics is a problem with a wide range of applications. For example, one might want to know which nodes in the network are being disturbed and identify the type of disturbance. Here, we present a model-free method based on machine learning to identify such unknown disturbances based only on prior observations of the system when forced by a known training function. We find that this method is able to identify the locations and properties of many different types of unknown disturbances using a variety of known forcing functions. We illustrate our results with both linear and nonlinear disturbances using food web and neuronal activity models. Finally, we discuss how to scale our method to large networks.

Long-Term Trends in Seasonality and Abundance of Three Key Zooplankters in the Upper San Francisco Estuary

Zooplankton provide critical food for threatened and endangered fish species in the San Francisco Estuary (estuary). Reduced food supply has been implicated in the Pelagic Organism Decline of the early 2000s, and further changes in zooplankton abundance, seasonality, and distribution may continue to threaten declining fishes. While we have a wealth of monitoring data, we know little about the abundance trends of many estuary zooplankton species. To fill these gaps, we reviewed past research and then examined trends in seasonality and abundance from 1972 to the present of three key but understudied zooplankton species (Bosmina longirostris, Acanthocyclops spp., and Acartiella sinensis) that play important roles in the estuary food web. We fit Bayesian generalized additive mixed models of each taxon’s relationship with salinity, seasonality, year, and geography on an integrated database of zooplankton monitoring in the upper estuary. We found marked changes in the seasonality and overall abundance of each study species. Bosmina longirostris no longer peaks in abundance in the fall months, Acanthocyclops spp. precipitously declined in all months and lost its strong relationship with salinity, and A. sinensis adult abundance has become more strongly related to salinity while juveniles have developed wider seasonal abundance peaks. Through these analyses, we have documented the relationship of each species with salinity and seasonality since the beginning of monitoring or their introduction, thus increasing our understanding of their ecology and importance in the estuary. These results can inform food-web models, be paired with fish data to model the contributions of these species toward fish abundance trends and be mirrored to elucidate other species’ trends in future studies.

Putting a lake together: Integrating synthetic data and field observations to build a better food web

Food webs provide context to understand how ecological communities will respond to environmental change, but revealing their structure typically relies upon time-intensive sampling and analysis of species' diets. As a result, all food web models require some unavoidable simplifications because of limited data availability, whether temporally, spatially, or taxonomically. Large databases of published trophic interactions have made this process somewhat easier, but knowledge gaps persist. We combine the use of databases with extensive field surveys, including gut-content analysis, to generate a food web for Lake George, NY. Including aquatic plants, phytoplankton, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and fish, our analysis identified 279 genera in the lake involved in 1910 interactions. After removing genera with no identified interactions or improbable interactions and grouping some genera into higher categories, the food web included 49 nodes with 484 interactions among them. The network structure of the inferred Lake George food web exhibits several common patterns such as relatively few trophic levels and the prevalence of tritrophic chains. Our results suggest that constructing food webs from databases provides a useful first step to determine topology. However, in situ sampling allowed us to account for additional interactions, as only 50 of the 106 directly observed interactions between fish and their prey were also found in published databases. Finally, we highlight the need to focus on developing a better understanding of herbivory in lakes, as species interactions among the diverse plankton and macroinvertebrate populations are not well known.

Cross diffusion induced spatially inhomogeneous Hopf bifurcation for a three species Lotka–Volterra food web model with cycle

In this article, we consider a three species Lotka–Volterra food web reaction–diffusion model with cycle, in which the intensity of the rate of preying on species 1 by species 2, the rate of preying on species 2 by species 3 and the rate of preying on species 3 by species 1 are in general asymmetrical. By suitably choosing cross diffusion coefficients as the bifurcation parameter, a spatially inhomogeneous Hopf bifurcation at a positive constant steady state is proved to occur for a sequence of critical values of the bifurcation parameter. In addition, we demonstrate that these spatially inhomogeneous bifurcating periodic solutions are stable when diffusion coefficients are located in suitable ranges. Our results show that cross diffusion plays a key role in the formation of spatially inhomogeneous periodic oscillatory patterns.

New shortcut for conservation: The combination management strategy of “keystone species” plus “umbrella species” based on food web structure

In our protection efforts, it is urgently needed to adopt precise and efficient management measures to address the challenges brought by biodiversity loss. Keystone and umbrella species are one of the most widely used surrogate species concepts. Keystone species often determine the stability of food web. Umbrella species, often the top predators and further influencing the integrity of the food web. Conservation efforts relying on a single surrogate species often face limitations. In order to seek complementary and optimized management strategies, we innovatively combining the concepts of two surrogate species, propose the hypothesis that “keystone species plus umbrella species reflect the stability and integrity of the food web respectively, so the combination of them is the most suitable combination for the overall protection of the food web”, and conducted validation research in a typical herbaceous marsh ecosystem. We constructed a typical food web model by using stable isotope, centrality indices and umbrella species strength index were used to quantitatively determine the keystone and umbrella species. Finally, we randomly paired nodes within the food web and remove different node pairs to investigate the impact of removal on the robustness of the food web, further validate the hypothesis. Our results indicated that when the node pair of “aquatic insects (keystone species) and top predatory catfish (Silurus asotus) (umbrella species)” was removed, the network efficiency reached its lowest point. This result confirmed our hypothesis, proposed a novel combination management strategy, which contribute to the development of more efficient and comprehensive biodiversity conservation decisions.

Simulating synergistic impacts of climate change and human induced stressors on a northern Gulf of Mexico estuarine food web

Apalachicola Bay, an estuary located in northwest Florida, is likely to experience a continuing increase in the severity of the effects of changing climate and human-induced stressors, such as sea level rise and changes in freshwater inflow. A coupled hydrodynamic and food web modeling approach was used to simulate future scenarios of freshwater input and sea level rise in Apalachicola Bay from 2020 to 2049 to demonstrate the range of temporal and spatial changes in water temperature, salinity, fisheries species biomasses, total food web biomass and upper trophic level diversity. Additionally, a survey of Apalachicola Bay stakeholders was conducted concurrently with model development to assess stakeholder knowledge and concerns regarding species and environmental changes within the system. Results of the model simulations indicated an increase in water temperature across all scenarios and an increase or decrease in salinity with scenarios of low or high river flow, respectively. These results aligned with the impacts anticipated by stakeholders. White shrimp biomass increased with low river flow and decreased with high river flow, while Gulf flounder biomass decreased across all scenarios. The simulated trends in white shrimp biomass contrasted with stakeholder perceptions. The food web model results also showed an increase in total food web biomass and decrease in upper trophic level diversity across all future scenarios. For all modeled simulations, the largest differences in future environmental variables and species biomasses were between scenarios of low and high river flow, rather than low and high sea level rise, indicating a stronger influence of river flow on the abiotic and biotic characteristics of the estuary. Stakeholders anticipated a future reduction in river flow and increase in sea level rise as negatively impacting the Franklin County economy and stakeholders’ personal interaction with the Apalachicola Bay ecosystem. The use of the ensemble modeling approach combined with the stakeholder survey highlights the use of multiple knowledge types to better understand abiotic and biotic changes in the estuarine system. Results provide insight on the synergistic effects of climate change and human-induced stressors on both the estuarine food web and human community of Apalachicola Bay.

The usefulness of food web models in the ecosystem services framework: Quantifying, mapping, and linking services supply

Coastal ecosystems provide a wide range of valuable ecosystem services (ES) for human wellbeing. Such services depend on the functioning and structure of ecosystems. Unfortunately, these ecosystems are threatened by humans, directly impairing their ability to provide these services. In order to predict such changes, we used a food web model to forecast potential spatial changes in ES supply in the Seine Bay (English Channel), due to climate change effects (CC) and the setup of an offshore wind farm (OWF). Three ES were studied, food production from fishing, top predator production for cultural purposes and the potential resistance of the ecosystem inferred from its organization. The ability of the Seine Bay ecosystem to produce food appears to be negatively impacted by the effect of climate change. Because of the important economic role of fishing in Normandy, such changes could percolate on the entire social and economic system of the bay. The Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm appears to increase the supply of services and limit the impact of climate change at the local spatial scale, which could give stakeholders insights into mitigating the effects of climate change. Such ecosystem approach enables for a more integrative view of ES supply, through the characterization of the entire system functioning.

A Critical Review of Amphibian Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Ecotoxicity Research Studies: Identification of Screening Levels in Water and Other Useful Resources for Site-Specific Ecological Risk Assessments.

With the goal of aiding risk assessors conducting site-specific risk assessments at per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-contaminated sites, this critical review synthesizes information on the ecotoxicity of PFAS to amphibians in 10 amphibian species and 16 peer-reviewed publications. The studies in this review consisted of spiked-PFAS chronic toxicity experiments with perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), and 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonate (6:2 FTS) that evaluated apical endpoints typical of ecological risk-based decision making (survival, growth, and development). Body mass was the most sensitive endpoint, showing clear and biologically meaningful population level adverse effect sizes (≥20% adverse effects). From these results, we recommend chronic no observed effect concentration (NOEC) screening levels of 590 µg/L for PFOS and 130 µg/L for PFOA. At or above recommended chronic lowest observed effect concentration screening levels of 1100 µg/L PFOS and 1400 µg/L PFOA, there is an increased chance of adverse biologically relevant chronic effects. Biologically relevant adverse effects were not observed for PFHxS and 6:2 FTS, so unbounded NOECs of 1300 µg/L PFHxS and 1800 µg/L 6:2 FTS are recommended. Screening levels are also provided for the concentration of PFAS in an amphibian diet, amphibian tissue, and moss substrate. In addition, we recommend bioconcentration factors that can be useful to predict concentrations of PFAS in amphibians using concentrations in water; these values are useful for food web modeling to understand risks to vertebrate wildlife that prey on amphibians. Overall, the present study provides a guide to the wealth of ecotoxicological research on PFAS conducted by our research group and highlights the need for additional work that would improve the understanding of chemical risks to amphibians. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1-13. © 2023 SETAC.

Ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors using a time-dynamic food-web model: The case of a re-oligotrophicated coastal embayment (Saronikos Gulf, E Mediterranean)

Multiple stressors may combine in unexpected ways to alter the structure of ecological systems, however, our current ability to evaluate their ecological impact is limited due to the lack of information concerning historic trophic interactions and ecosystem dynamics. Saronikos Gulf is a heavily exploited embayment in the E Mediterranean that has undergone significant ecological alterations during the last 20 years including a shift from long-standing eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions in the mid-2000’s. Here we used a historical Ecopath food-web model of Saronikos Gulf (1998-2000) and fitted the time-dynamic module Ecosim to biomass and catch time series for the period 2001-2020. We then projected the model forward in time from 2021 to 2050 under 8 scenarios to simulate ecosystem responses to the individual and combined effect of sea surface temperature increase, primary productivity shifts and fishing effort release. Incorporating trophic interactions, climate warming, fishing and primary production improved model fit, depicting that both fishing and the environment have historically influenced ecosystem dynamics. Retrospective simulations of the model captured historical biomass and catch trends of commercially important stocks and reproduced successfully the marked recovery of marine resources 10 years after re-oligotrophication. In future scenarios increasing temperature had a detrimental impact on most functional groups, increasing and decreasing productivity had a positive and negative effect on all respectively, while fishing reductions principally benefited top predators. Combined stressors produced synergistic or antagonistic effects depending on the direction and magnitude of change of each stressor in isolation while their overall impact seemed to be strongly mediated via food-web interactions. Such holistic approaches advance of our mechanistic understanding of ecosystems enabling us to develop more effective management strategies in the face of a rapidly changing marine environment.

Randall’s Threadfin Bream (Nemipterus randalli, Russell 1986) Poses a Potential Threat to the Northeastern Mediterranean Sea Food Web

The eastern Mediterranean Sea is one of the most invaded marine ecosystems due to the introduction of Lessepsian species, which migrated from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea following the construction of the Suez Canal. Some of these species may initially appear to be beneficial for fisheries by providing additional income sources for fishers; however, this usually occurs at the expense of negatively impacted native species and, thus, the ecosystem, which leads to greater economic losses for the fisheries in the long term. Therefore, this study aims to quantify the impact of N. randalli, which is one of the Lessepsian species with increasing commercial importance for the fisheries, on the food web dynamics in a coastal ecosystem in the northeastern Mediterranean Sea using a mass-balance food web modelling approach by capitalising on field data obtained from trawl samplings conducted within the scope of the study. Results showed that the ecosystem was in a developmental stage and experienced an autotrophic succession. The keystone fish group with a structuring role in the food web was sea breams and porgies. Although N. randalli had positive impacts on certain commercially exploited indigenous demersal fish species by mitigating the negative impact of another Lessepsian species, i.e., Saurida undosquamis (Richardson, 1848), in the food web, it had a negative impact on the keystone group of the food web, i.e., sea breams and porgies. Therefore, N. randalli poses a potential threat to the ecosystem’s structure, and the interactions of N. randalli with other species in the food web may instigate an ecosystem reorganisation in the future. We suggest targeted fisheries exploitation and incentives for the fishery of N. randalli as management strategies to mitigate its negative impacts. However, the mitigating role of N. randalli in regulating the negative impacts of S. undosquamis could be adversely affected by its increasing exploitation; therefore, future modelling studies should consider scenario simulations to test such effects.

Mercury isotope compositions in seawater and marine fish revealed the sources and processes of mercury in the food web within differing marine compartments.

Anthropogenic activities and climate change have significantly increased mercury (Hg) levels in seawater. However, the processes and sources of Hg in differing marine compartments (e.g. estuary, marine continental shelf (MCS) or pelagic area) have not been well studied, which makes it difficult to understand Hg cycling in marine ecosystems. To address this issue, the total Hg (THg) concentration, methylmercury (MeHg) concentration and stable Hg isotopes were determined in seawater and fish samples collected from differing marine compartments of the South China Sea (SCS). The results showed that the estuarine seawater exhibited substantially higher THg and MeHg concentrations than those in the MCS and pelagic seawater. Significantly negative δ202Hg (-1.63‰ ± 0.42‰) in estuarine seawater compared with that in pelagic seawater (-0.58‰ ± 0.08‰) may suggest watershed input and domestic sewage discharge of Hg in the estuarine compartment. The Δ199Hg value in estuarine fish (0.39‰ ± 0.35‰) was obviously lower than that in MCS (1.10‰ ± 0.54‰) and pelagic fish (1.15‰ ± 0.46‰), which showed that relatively little MeHg photodegradation occurred in the estuarine compartment. The Hg isotope binary mixing model based on Δ200Hg revealed that approximately 74% MeHg in pelagic fish is derived from atmospheric Hg(II) deposition, and over 60% MeHg in MCS fish is derived from sediments. MeHg sources for estuarine fish may be highly complex (e.g. sediment or riverine/atmospheric input) and further investigations are warranted to clarify the contribution of each source. Our study showed that Hg stable isotopes in seawater and marine fish can be used to identify the processes and sources of Hg in different marine compartments. This finding is of great relevance to the development of marine Hg food web models and the management of Hg in fish.

Flood pulses and fish species coexistence in tropical rivers - a theoretical food web model

AbstractFreshwater fish diversity reaches its zenith in large tropical rivers. Although the origins of this diversity have been relatively well studied, the mechanisms that maintain high fish diversity in tropical rivers remain largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that the annual flood pulse, a perennial feature of many lowland rivers in the tropics, reduces competitive exclusion and consequently promotes species coexistence. During the high-water season, superabundant allochthonous resources and relatively low fish density may reduce intra- and interspecific competition. During the low-water season on the other hand, resource availability is low and predation pressure high, offsetting competitive differences between species and controlling fish population sizes. Here, we tested the potential role of these mechanisms for species coexistence using a food web model where fish species exhibit strong differences in competition strength and compete for finite resources. We simulated fish interactions when a regular flood pulse was either present or absent. We found that extinction rates in the simulations without an annual flood pulse were consistently higher when compared to those with a flood pulse, indicating more species could coexist when a regular annual flood pulse is present. If the flood pulse is a relevant mechanism for fish species coexistence, as our model results suggest, then flood pulse changes could result in species extinctions and lower fish diversity. Deforestation, climate change, and the construction of large hydropower dams are current drivers of hydrological change across the tropics, increasing the urgency to understand the role of natural flooding regimes for the maintenance of tropical freshwater fish diversity.

Ecological network-based food web dynamic model provides an aquatic population restoration strategy

Aquatic ecosystem restoration is a crucial aspect of ecological management. However, current research tends to concentrate on single factors, such as water quality or biodiversity, rather than ecological restoration strategies based on the characteristics of an ecological network system. Due to the large number of parameters to be considered, the latter approach presents still full of challenges in practical implementation. This study introduces a food web dynamic model that can guide and facilitate aquatic ecological network restoration. The model calculates the network-based interaction relationships of species in the food web, predicting the changes in ecosystem structure and function. We test our food web model by conducting a case study. The food web considered 9 kinds of species nodes, 12 links, and 1 uncertain predator–prey interaction. Our model simulations presented a strong correlation with the measured data (R2 = 0.837). We performed sensitivity analysis on 12 parameters and also conducted link prediction analysis, which revealed that there was no predator–prey relationship between species A and N (A + N = 0). By comparing population dynamics under 3 conditions, we determined that the mass reproduction of nonnative species and the population decline of native species were both related to indirect food web interactions. Finally, we comprised 27 scenarios, including fishing and stock enhancement approaches, to predict the potential restoration effects. The results showed that the fishing approach was more effective in removing alien species when the fishing frequency was shorter. It was also found that selecting catches and releasing native or endangered species back into the environment (F4, F5, F6, and F12) was necessary. On the other hand, the stock enhancement approach was concluded to be effective in increasing the number of native species as long as the frequency of enhancement was high (per 1 year, S1, S2, and S3). However, it was found to be challenging to rely on this approach to reduce the population of nonnative species. This research will enhance the previous studies in terms of (a) including whole species interactions in the ecological network; (b) considering the influence of abiotic factors, such as water quality, terrigenous carrying capacity, shoreline substrate, and hydrological connection in our model; and (c) coupling significant parameters in ecological restoration practices. This research will provide a valuable tool for managing aquatic ecological networks and decision-making suggestions for determining restoration schemes in complex aquatic food webs.

Mesopelagic fishes are important prey for a diversity of predators

Through daily vertical movements, mesopelagic fishes contribute to global carbon export and, when eaten, link primary consumers to higher trophic level predators. Although the importance of mesopelagic fishes as prey to individual predator species has been explored, a comprehensive assessment of mesopelagic fishes as prey at the scale of a large marine ecosystem would advance our observing, modeling, and predicting of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We use diet samples from over 105,000 individual predators from 143 taxa in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) to quantify and evaluate the role of mesopelagic fishes as prey. For 11 predator taxa, including protected mammal species, pelagic squids, a shelf-edge-associated rockfish and highly migratory species, mesopelagic fishes occurred in greater than 25% of all diet samples, likely comprising an important source of prey. Of the 143 taxa represented, individuals from 36 taxa, or 25% percent of all predator taxa in the database, consumed at least one mesopelagic fish species, including economically important fishery species such as Bluefin tuna (16% of all non-empty diet samples), Albacore (19%), Swordfish (50%), Humboldt squid (52%), and Pacific hake (4%). Compared with coastal pelagic fish species (essential prey in the CCE), mesopelagic fish were more frequently encountered in the diets of 21 predator taxa. Lanternfish (family Myctophidae) were the most common prey and consumed by the greatest diversity of predators (32 taxa), but an additional 16 families of mesopelagic fishes were also consumed by predators, highlighting the diversity of organisms inhabiting mesopelagic depths. Mesopelagic fishes were found in the diets of predators collected from shelf depths to well offshore, accentuating the role of mesopelagic fishes as prey across habitats, especially for predators foraging over the slope and further offshore. Our work illuminates the importance of mesopelagic fishes as prey to a diversity of economically valuable and protected species, underscoring the need to incorporate mesopelagic fishes more comprehensively into food web models, global carbon budgets and ultimately our understanding of ecosystem function.

A food-web model as a tool for the ecosystem-level management of bivalves in an Atlantic coastal lagoon

The Ria de Aveiro is an important coastal lagoon for wildlife in Portugal, where the production of bivalves reaches approximately 2700 tons annually. However, the illegal overfishing of bivalves is frequent in this lagoon, which causes critical changes in the ecosystem. In this study, using a developed food-web model (Ecopath model), the ecological carrying capacity (ECC) and maximum sustained yield (MSY) of the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum were estimated, and the effects of further increases in clam biomass on other species were investigated. The results showed that 1) the current biomass and legal catch of R. philippinarum do not yet exceed the ECC (172.40 tons km−2) or the MSY (86.20 tons km−2 year−1) in Ria de Aveiro; 2) the harvested Manila clams of the MSY represent removing from the ecosystem ∼ 581 tons carbon (C) and ∼83 tons nitrogen (N) annually, with substantial ecological and economic implications; and 3) a further increase in the biomass levels of this species may cause the ecotrophic efficiency of other groups to become unrealistic, potentially leading to decreases in ecosystem transfer efficiency, biodiversity and health. The results here are expected to guide the sustainable development and management of bivalve aquaculture in Ria de Aveiro and the protection of the local environment.

Stable diverse food webs become more common when interactions are more biologically constrained

Ecologists have long sought to understand how diversity and structure mediate the stability of whole ecosystems. For high-diversity food webs, the interactions between species are typically represented using matrices with randomly chosen interaction strengths. Unfortunately, this procedure tends to produce ecological systems with no underlying equilibrium solution, and so ecological inferences from this approach may be biased by nonbiological outcomes. Using recent computationally efficient methodological advances from metabolic networks, we employ for the first time an inverse approach to diversity-stability research. We compare classical random interaction matrices of realistic food web topology (hereafter the classical model) to feasible, biologically constrained, webs produced using the inverse approach. We show that an energetically constrained feasible model yields a far higher proportion of stable high-diversity webs than the classical random matrix approach. When we examine the energetically constrained interaction strength distributions of these matrix models, we find that although these diverse webs have consistent negative self-regulation, they do not require strong self-regulation to persist. These energetically constrained diverse webs instead show an increasing preponderance of weak interactions that are known to increase local stability. Further examination shows that some of these weak interactions naturally appear to arise in the model food webs from a constraint-generated realistic generalist-specialist trade-off, whereby generalist predators have weaker interactions than more specialized species. Additionally, the inverse technique we present here has enormous promise for understanding the role of the biological structure behind stable high-diversity webs and for linking empirical data to the theory.

Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration.

One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial-temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.

Ecological indicators reveal historical regime shifts in the Black Sea ecosystem.

The Black Sea is one of the most anthropogenically disturbed marine ecosystems in the world because of introduced species, fisheries overexploitation, nutrient enrichment via pollution through river discharge, and the impacts of climate change. It has undergone significant ecosystem transformations since the 1960s. The infamous anchovy and alien warty comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi shift that occurred in 1989 is the most well-known example of the drastic extent of anthropogenic disturbance in the Black Sea. Although a vast body of literature exists on the Black Sea ecosystem, a holistic look at the multidecadal changes in the Black Sea ecosystem using an ecosystem- and ecology-based approach is still lacking. Hence, this work is dedicated to filling this gap. First, a dynamic food web model of the Black Sea extending from 1960 to 1999 was established and validated against time-series data. Next, an ecological network analysis was performed to calculate the time series of synthetic ecological indicators, and a regime shift analysis was performed on the time series of indicators. The model successfully replicated the regime shifts observed in the Black Sea. The results showed that the Black Sea ecosystem experienced four regime shifts and was reorganized due to effects instigated by overfishing in the 1960s, eutrophication and establishment of trophic dead-end organisms in the 1970s, and overfishing and intensifying interspecies trophic competition by the overpopulation of some r-selected organisms (i.e., jellyfish species) in the 1980s. Overall, these changes acted concomitantly to erode the structure and function of the ecosystem by manipulating the food web to reorganize itself through the introduction and selective removal of organisms and eutrophication. Basin-wide, cross-national management efforts, especially with regard to pollution and fisheries, could have prevented the undesirable changes observed in the Black Sea ecosystem and should be immediately employed for management practices in the basin to prevent such drastic ecosystem fluctuations in the future.

Continuous assembly required: Perpetual species turnover in two‐trophic‐level ecosystems

AbstractCommunity assembly is often treated as deterministic, converging on one or at most a few possible stable endpoints. However, in nature, we typically observe continuous change in community composition, which is often ascribed to environmental change. But continuous changes in community composition can also arise in deterministic, time‐invariant community models, especially food web models. Our goal was to determine why some models produce continuous assembly and others do not. We investigated a simple two‐trophic‐level community model to show that continuous assembly is driven by the relative niche width of the trophic levels. If predators have a larger niche width than prey, community assembly converges to a stable equilibrium. Conversely, if predators have a smaller niche width than prey, then community composition never stabilizes. Evidence that food webs need not reach a stable equilibrium has important implications, as many ecological theories of community ecology based on equilibria may be difficult to apply to such food webs.

Modelling effects of nutrients and hypoxia on Lake Erie's central basin foodweb

Abstract Hypoxia (dissolved oxygen <2 mg l-1) has long been a prevalent feature of the central basin of Lake Erie. Studies of the sublethal impacts of hypoxia on fishes have focused on individual species feeding rates, behavior and spatial distributions over short time periods, but the long-term effects on the fish community and its foodweb are poorly known. Sublethal effects of hypoxia on fish include: interrupting their vertical migration, displacing them from bottom habitats either up into the water column or away from the hypoxic zones, altering predator-prey relationships by segregation or aggregation of predators and their prey, and increasing fishing mortality by concentrating fish at the edge of hypoxic zones. We used the Ecopath with Ecosim foodweb model to investigate the singular and combined effects of nutrient concentration and hypoxia on the foodweb structure in Lake Erie's central basin. Our model tracked predator-prey interactions and population biomass of 33 model groups. We balanced the model in Ecopath and calibrated it against biomass time series data from 1996 up to 2020. Model simulations were run with varied nutrients (from 20 to 220% of the previous nutrient loading target level) and hypoxia (none, average summer value from 1996 to 2017, historical high) as forcing variables on the foodweb. Model results suggested that nutrients had positive, non-linear effects on foodweb biomass, while hypoxia decreased biomass of benthos, benthivorous fishes, and some omnivores, but increased biomass of plankton and planktivorous fishes. Nutrient effects were greater than hypoxia effects on the foodweb. Results of the foodweb model analysis may inform water quality and fisheries management strategies for Lake Erie's central basin.