Atmospheric Model Research Articles

A grid of self-consistent MSG (MARCS-StaticWeather-GGchem) cool stellar, sub-stellar, and exoplanetary model atmospheres

Context. In this paper we present a grid of self-consistent 1D model atmospheres of cool stars, sub-stellar objects, and exoplanets in the effective temperature range 300-3000 K, including cloud formation, chemical non-equilibrium effects, and stellar irradiation. Aims. The new grid extends the classical MARCS model atmosphere grid from 2008 towards lower effective temperatures and a broader range of object types. Methods. The new model atmosphere computations, MSG, are based on a combination of three well-tested codes, the classical MARCS 1D atmospheres, the StaticWeather cloud formation code, and the GGchem chemical equilibrium code. The combined code has been updated with new and more complete molecular and atomic opacities, cloud formation, and advanced chemical equilibrium calculations, and we also added new numerical methods at low temperatures to allow for a more robust convergence. Results. The coupling between the MARCS radiative transfer and GGchem chemical equilibrium computations has effectively made it possible to reach convergence based on the electron pressure for warmer models and gas pressure for cooler models, enabling self-consistent modelling of stellar, sub-stellar, and exoplanetary objects in a very wide range of effective temperatures. We will make new cloud-free and non-irradiated models for solar metallicity and a selected variety of other chemical compositions immediately available from our home page (https://cels.nbi.ku.dk). Illustrative examples of cloudy and irradiated models as well as models based on non-equilibrium chemistry are also presented, and we will describe these in more detail and make them available upon completion at the same place for a larger range of parameter space. Conclusions. For solar metallicity models, the new additional molecular opacities only affect the structure of models cooler than Teff = 2500 K, and the effect becomes substantial for models below Teff ~1500 K. Atomic line opacities are important for models warmer than ~3000 K. The line profile of the molecular opacities may have a larger effect on the model structure than previously anticipated, particularly in the uppermost layers at low gas pressure. The qualitative changes in the relative abundances of TiO, H2O, CH4, NH3, and other molecules in our models follow the observationally defined M, L, T (and Y) sequences, but they also reveal more complex and depth-dependent abundance changes and therefore a spectral classification depending on more parameters. The self-consistent coupling to StaticWeather cloud computations allows for detailed comparison between nucleation and observed relative dimming of different spectral bands, with advanced applications for new identification methods of potential exoplanetary biology.

Greenhouse gas column observations from a portable spectrometer in Uganda

Abstract. The extensive terrestrial ecosystems of tropical Africa are a significant store of carbon and play a key but uncertain role in the atmospheric budgets of carbon dioxide and methane. As ground-based observations in the tropics are scarce compared with other parts of the world, recent studies have instead made use of satellite observations assimilated into atmospheric chemistry and transport models to conclude that methane emissions from this geographical region have increased since 2010 as a result of increased wetland extent, accounting for up to a third of global methane growth, and that the tropical Africa region dominates net carbon emission across the tropics. These studies critically rely on the accuracy of satellite datasets, such as those from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), and the Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), along with results from atmospheric transport models, over a geographical region where there are little independent data to test the robustness of published results. In this paper we present the first ground-based observations of greenhouse gas column concentrations over East Africa, obtained using a portable Bruker EM27/SUN Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer during a deployment covering the first few months of 2020 in Jinja, Uganda. We operated the instrument near autonomously by way of an automated weatherproof enclosure and observed total atmospheric column concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, as well as carbon monoxide, a useful proxy for emissions from incomplete combustion processes in the region. We discuss the performance of the combined enclosure and spectrometer system that we deployed in Jinja to obtain these data and show comparisons of our ground-based observations with satellite datasets from OCO-2 and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3 (OCO-3) for carbon dioxide and TROPOMI for methane and carbon monoxide, whilst also comparing our results with concentration data from the GEOS-Chem and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) atmospheric inversions that provide a means of increasing spatial and temporal coverage where satellite data are not available. For our measurement period, we find mean differences in XCO2 between OCO-2 and the EM27/SUN of −0.29 % and between OCO-3 and the EM27/SUN of −0.28 %. In the case of TROPOMI, the mean difference in XCH4 that we find between TROPOMI and the EM27/SUN is −0.44 %, whilst for XCO the mean difference is −5.65 %. In each of these cases, the mean difference observed between the satellite and ground-based column concentrations is either close to or within the precision and accuracy requirements for the respective missions. With regard to the model and reanalysis comparisons with the EM27/SUN column concentrations, we see mean differences from the EM27/SUN of a global GEOS-Chem inversion for XCO2 of −0.08 %, a regional high-resolution GEOS-Chem inversion for XCH4 of −0.22 %, and the CAMS global reanalysis for XCO of −9.79 %. Our results demonstrate the value of ground-based observations of total column concentrations and show that the combined EM27/SUN and enclosure system employed would be suitable for acquisition of the longer-term observations needed to rigorously evaluate satellite observations and model and reanalysis calculations over tropical Africa.

Increasing contribution of the atmospheric vertical motion to precipitation in a warming climate

Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic influences on atmospheric moisture distributions. Here, we build a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model for the present (2006–2025) and the future climate (2081–2100), using outputs from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We find that the dynamic process of vertical advection of moisture dominates the same-day precipitation, while the smaller impact of the thermodynamic process provides available moisture for several days. As climate warms, we find that the dynamical-induced precipitation more completely exhausts the vertically-integrated moisture and the distribution of the dynamic process’s impact on precipitation exhibits a greater spread in the warmer future. The dynamical process is primarily responsible for more extreme heavy precipitation as climate warms, at all latitudes.

Response of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves to Surface Temperature Forcing in Aquaplanet Simulations

AbstractThis study investigates changes in the propagation and maintenance of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (KWs) in response to surface warming. We use a set of three aquaplanet simulations made with the Community Atmospheric Model version 6 by varying the sea surface temperature boundary conditions to represent the current climate as well as warmer (+4 K) and cooler (−4 K) climates. Results show that KWs accelerate at the rate of about 7.1%/K and their amplitudes decrease by 4.7%/K. The dampening of KWs with warming is found to be associated with a weakening of the internal thermodynamic feedback between diabatic heating and temperature anomalies that generates KW eddy available potential energy (EAPE). The phase speed of KWs closely matches that of the second baroclinic mode KW in −4 K, while the phase speed of KWs is approximately that of the first baroclinic mode KW in +4 K. Meanwhile, the coupling between the two baroclinic modes weakens with warming. We hypothesize that in −4 K, as the first and second baroclinic modes are strongly coupled, KWs destabilize by positive EAPE generation within the second baroclinic mode and propagate more slowly, following the second baroclinic mode KW phase speed. In +4 K, as the first and second baroclinic modes decouple, KWs are damped by negative EAPE generation within the first baroclinic mode and propagate faster, following the first baroclinic mode KW phase speed.

A Fast Computing Model for the Oxygen A-Band High-Spectral-Resolution Absorption Spectra Based on Artificial Neural Networks

A fast and accurate radiative transfer model is the prerequisite in the field of atmospheric remote sensing for limb atmospheric inversion to tackle the drawback of slow calculation speed of traditional atmospheric radiative transfer models. This paper established a fast computing model (ANN-HASFCM) for high-spectral-resolution absorption spectra by using artificial neural networks and PCA (principal component analysis) spectral reconstruction technology. This paper chose the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) as the comparative model and simulated training spectral data in the oxygen A-band (12,900–13,200 cm−1). Subsequently, ANN-HASFCM was applied to the retrieval of the atmospheric density profile with the data of the Global Ozone Monitoring by an Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instrument. The results show that the relative error between the optical depth spectra calculated by LBLRTM and ANN-HASFCM is within 0.03–0.65%. In the process of using the global-fitting algorithm to invert GOMOS-measured atmospheric samples, the inversion results using Fast-LBLRTM and ANN-HASFCM as forward models are consistent, and the retrieval speed of ANN-HASFCM is more than 200 times faster than that of Fast-LBLRTM (reduced from 226.7 s to 0.834 s). The analysis shows the brilliant application prospects of ANN-HASFCM in limb remote sensing.

Higher Onshore Wind Energy Potentials Revealed by Kilometer‐Scale Atmospheric Modeling

AbstractReliable and highly resolved information about onshore wind energy potential (WEP) is essential for expanding renewable energy to eventually achieve carbon neutrality. In this pilot study, simulated 60 m wind speeds (ws60m) from a km‐scale, convection‐permitting 3.3 km‐resolution ICON‐LAM simulation and often‐used 31 km‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis are evaluated at 18 weather masts. The estimated ICON‐LAM and ERA5 WEPs are then compared using an innovative approach with 1.8 million eligible wind turbine placements over southern Africa. Results show ERA5 underestimates ws60m with a Mean Error (ME) of −1.8 m s−1 (−27%). In contrast, ICON‐LAM shows a ME of −0.1 m s−1 (−1.8%), resulting in a much higher average WEP by 48% compared to ERA5. A combined Global Wind Atlas‐ERA5 product reduces the ws60m underestimation of ERA5 to −0.3 m s−1 (−4.7%), but shows a similar average WEP compared to ERA5 resulting from the WEP spatial heterogeneity.

TIC 441725813: A new bright hybrid hot B subdwarf pulsator with differential core versus envelope rotation

Context. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) performs high-precision photometry over almost the whole sky primarily in search of exoplanet transits. It also provides exquisite data to study stellar variability, in particular for pulsating hot B subdwarf (sdB) stars. Aims. We present a detailed analysis of a new hybrid (p- and g-mode) sdB pulsator, TIC 441725813 (TYC 4427-1021-1), discovered and monitored by TESS for 670 days. Methods. The TESS light curves available for this star were analysed using prewhitening techniques to extract mode frequencies accurately. The pulsation spectrum was then interpreted through methods that include asymptotic period spacing relationships and the identification of rotational multiplets. We also exploited a high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), low-resolution spectrum of TIC 441725813 using grids of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) model atmospheres to derive its atmospheric parameters. Results. The light curve analysis reveals that frequencies are mostly found in the g-mode region, but several p-modes are also detected, indicating that TIC 441725813 is a hybrid sdB pulsator. We identify 25 frequencies that can be associated with ℓ = 1 g-modes, 15 frequencies corresponding to ℓ = 2 g-modes, and six frequencies characteristic of p-modes. Interestingly, several frequency multiplets interpreted as rotational splittings of deep-probing g-modes indicate a slow rotation period of at least 85.3 ± 3.6 day, while splittings of mostly envelope-probing p-modes suggest a significantly shorter rotation period of 17.9 ± 0.7 day, which implies the core (mainly the helium mantle with possibly the deeper partially mixed helium-burning core that it surrounds) rotates at least 4.7 times slower than the envelope. The radial velocity curves indicate that TIC 441725813 is in a close binary system with a low-luminosity companion, possibly a white dwarf. While elusive in the available TESS photometry, a low-frequency signal that would correspond to a period of ∼6.7 h is found, albeit at a low S/N. Furthermore, we estimate the inclination angle to be ∼60° by two independent means. Conclusions. TIC 441725813 is a particularly interesting sdB star whose envelope rotates faster than the core. We hypothesise that this might be caused by the effects of a tidal interaction with a companion, although in the present case, the presence of such a companion will have to be further investigated. This analysis paves the way towards a more detailed seismic probing of TIC 441725813 using optimisation techniques, which will be presented in a second paper.

Thermospheric Neutral Density Data Assimilation System Based on the Whole Atmosphere Model During the November 2003 Storm

AbstractThe Iterative Driver Estimation and Assimilation (IDEA) data assimilation technique was used with the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) to improve neutral density specification in the upper thermosphere. Two different neutral density data sources were examined to enhance the capability of simulating the global thermospheric state. The first were accelerometer estimates of neutral density from the Challenging Mini‐Satellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite. The second were neutral density estimates from the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) limb‐scan airglow observations aboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Due to the intensity of the November 2003 storm, two changes were necessary in WAM. The first was allowing the Kp geomagnetic index to exceed 9 and the second was changing the relationship between Kp and the solar wind parameters used to drive the model. With these changes, results show that IDEA effectively captures the thermospheric neutral density at the CHAMP satellite altitude and follows the time‐dependence through the November 2003 storm period. Furthermore, a cross‐comparison was conducted with the GUVI dayside limb scan measurements. GUVI neutral densities within 270–320 km show the closest agreement with WAM when CHAMP data was assimilated by IDEA. We speculate on the potential for observations from GUVI at 300 km to be used as a data source in the IDEA‐WAM simulations. These simulations demonstrate the utility of the IDEA data assimilation technique with physical models and that using either accelerometer observations or ultraviolet airglow limb measurement during extreme storm periods could be used.

Efficient spectral element method for the Euler equations on unbounded domains

Mitigating the impact of waves leaving a numerical domain has been a persistent challenge in numerical modeling. Reducing wave reflection at the domain boundary is crucial for accurate simulations. Absorbing layers, while common, often incur significant computational costs. This paper introduces an efficient application of a Legendre-Laguerre basis for absorbing layers for two-dimensional non-linear compressible Euler equations. The method couples a spectral-element bounded domain with a semi-infinite region, employing a tensor product of Lagrange and scaled Laguerre basis functions. Semi-infinite elements are used in the absorbing layer with Rayleigh damping. In comparison to existing methods with similar absorbing layer extensions, this approach, a pioneering application to the Euler equations of compressible and stratified flows, demonstrates substantial computational savings. The study marks the first application of semi-infinite elements to mitigate wave reflection in the solution of the Euler equations, particularly in nonhydrostatic atmospheric modeling. A comprehensive set of tests demonstrates the method's versatility for general systems of conservation laws, with a focus on its effectiveness in damping vertically propagating mountain gravity waves, a benchmark for atmospheric models. Across all tests, the model presented in this paper consistently exhibits notable performance improvements compared to a traditional Rayleigh damping approach.

Comparison of observation- and inventory-based methane emissions for eight large global emitters

Abstract. Monitoring the spatial distribution and trends in surface greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes, is essential to track progress under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021, 2023), provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union (EU), and is expanded to include seven additional countries with large anthropogenic and/or natural emissions (the USA, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo)). Our aim is to demonstrate the use of different emission estimates to help improve national GHG emission inventories for a diverse geographical range of stakeholders. We use updated national GHG inventories (NGHGIs) reported by Annex I parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2023 and the latest available biennial update reports (BURs) reported by non-Annex I parties. Comparing NGHGIs with other approaches highlights that different system boundaries are a key source of divergence. A key system boundary difference is whether anthropogenic and natural fluxes are included and, if they are, how fluxes belonging to these two sources are partitioned. Over the studied period, the total CH4 emission estimates in the EU, the USA, and Russia show a steady decreasing trend since 1990, while for the non-Annex I emitters analyzed in this study, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and DR Congo, CH4 emissions have generally increased. Quantitatively, in the EU the mean of 2015–2020 anthropogenic UNFCCC NGHGIs (15±1.8 Tg CH4 yr−1) and the mean of the BU CH4 emissions (17.8 (16–19) Tg CH4 yr−1) generally agree on the magnitude, while inversions show higher emission estimates (medians of 21 (19–22) Tg CH4 yr−1 and 24 (22–25) Tg CH4 yr−1 for the three regional and six global inversions, respectively), as they include natural emissions, which for the EU were quantified at 6.6 Tg CH4 yr−1 (Petrescu et al., 2023). Similarly, for the other Annex I parties in this study (the USA and Russia), the gap between the BU anthropogenic and total TD emissions is partly explained by the natural emissions. For the non-Annex I parties, anthropogenic CH4 estimates from UNFCCC BURs show large differences compared to the other global-inventory-based estimates and even more compared to atmospheric ones. This poses an important potential challenge to monitoring the progress of the global CH4 pledge and the global stocktake. Our analysis provides a useful baseline to prepare for the influx of inventories from non-Annex I parties as regular reporting starts under the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement. By systematically comparing the BU and TD methods, this study provides recommendations for more robust comparisons of available data sources and hopes to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC inventories, as well as considering their natural emissions. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, future development needs to resolve knowledge gaps in the BU and TD approaches and to better quantify the remaining uncertainty. TD methods may emerge as a powerful tool to help improve NGHGIs of CH4 emissions, but further confidence is needed in the comparability and robustness of the estimates. The referenced datasets related to figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12818506 (Petrescu et al., 2024).

A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates

Abstract. Lightning is an important atmospheric process for generating reactive nitrogen, resulting in the production of tropospheric ozone, as well as igniting wildland fires, which result in potentially large emissions of many pollutants and short-lived climate forcers. Lightning is also expected to change in frequency and location with the changing climate. As such, lightning is an important component of Earth system models. Until now, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) did not contain an interactive-lightning parameterization. The fire parameterization in CanESM5.1 was designed to use prescribed monthly climatological lightning. In this study, we have added a logistical regression lightning model that predicts lightning occurrence interactively based on three environmental variables and their interactions in CanESM5.1's atmospheric model, CanAM5.1 (Canadian Atmospheric Model), creating the capacity to interactively model lightning, allowing for future projections under different climate scenarios. The modelled lightning and resulting burned area were evaluated against satellite measurements over the historical period, and model biases were found to be acceptable. Modelled lightning had a small negative bias and excellent land–ocean ratio compared to satellite measurements. The modified version of CanESM5.1 was used to simulate two future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) to assess how lightning and burned area change in the future. Under the higher-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), CanESM5.1 predicts almost no change to the global mean lightning flash rate by the end of the century (2081–2100 vs. 2015–2035 average). However, there are substantial regional changes to lightning – particularly over land – such as a mean increase of 6 % in the northern mid-latitudes and decrease of −8 % in the tropics. By the century's end, the change in global total burned area with prescribed climatological lightning was about 2 times greater than that with interactive lightning (42 % vs. 26 % increase, respectively). Conversely, in the northern mid-latitudes the use of interactive lightning resulted in 3 times more burned area compared to that with unchanging lightning (48 % vs. 16 % increase, respectively). These results show that the future changes to burned area are greatly dependent on a model's lightning scheme, both spatially and overall.

Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method for multilevel nonlocal thermal equilibrium radiative transfer problems

Context. The calculation of the emerging radiation from a model atmosphere requires knowledge of the emissivity and absorption coefficients, which are proportional to the atomic level population densities of the levels involved in each transition. Due to the intricate interdependence of the radiation field and the physical state of the atoms, iterative methods are required in order to calculate the atomic level population densities. A variety of different methods have been proposed to solve this problem, which is known as the nonlocal thermodynamical equilibrium (NLTE) problem. Aims. Our goal is to develop an efficient and rapidly converging method to solve the NLTE problem under the assumption of statistical equilibrium. In particular, we explore whether the Jacobian-Free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method can be used. This method does not require an explicit construction of the Jacobian matrix because it estimates the new correction with the Krylov-subspace method. Methods. We implemented an NLTE radiative transfer code with overlapping bound-bound and bound-free transitions. This solved the statistical equilibrium equations using a JFNK method, assuming a depth-stratified plane-parallel atmosphere. As a reference, we also implemented the Rybicki & Hummer (1992) method based on linearization and operator splitting. Results. Our tests with the Fontenla, Avrett and Loeser C model atmosphere (FAL-C) and two different six-level Ca II and H I atoms show that the JFNK method can converge faster than our reference case by up to a factor 2. This number is evaluated in terms of the total number of evaluations of the formal solution of the radiative transfer equation for all frequencies and directions. This method can also reach a lower residual error compared to the reference case. Conclusions. The JFNK method we developed poses a new alternative to solving the NLTE problem. Because it is not based on operator splitting with a local approximate operator, it can improve the convergence of the NLTE problem in highly scattering cases. One major advantage of this method is that it is expected to allow for a direct implementation of more complex problems, such as overlapping transitions from different active atoms, charge conservation, or a more efficient treatment of partial redistribution, without having to explicitly linearize the equations.

Subaru/CHARIS High-resolution Mode Spectroscopy of the Brown Dwarf Companion HD 33632 Ab

Brown dwarfs (BDs) are model degenerate in age and mass. High-contrast imaging and spectroscopy of BD companions to host stars where the mass and age can be independently constrained by dynamics and stellar age indicators, respectively, provide valuable tests of BD evolution models. In this paper, we present a new epoch of Subaru/CHARIS H- and K-band observations of one such previously discovered system, HD 33632 Ab. We reanalyze the mass and orbit using our new epoch of extracted relative astrometry and fit extracted spectra to the newest generation of equilibrium, disequilibrium, and cloudy spectral and evolution models for BDs. No spectral model perfectly agrees with evolutionary tracks and the derived mass and age, instead favoring a somewhat younger BD than the host star’s inferred age. This tension can potentially be resolved using atmosphere and evolution models that consider both clouds and disequilibrium chemistry simultaneously or by additional future spectra at higher resolution or in other band passes. Photometric measurements alone remain consistent with the luminosity predicted by evolutionary tracks. Our work highlights the importance of considering complexities like clouds, disequilibrium chemistry, and composition when comparing spectral models to evolutionary tracks.

Role of meteorology and air pollution on fog conditions over Delhi during the peak winter 2024

Severe air pollution and foggy conditions during winter are persistent challenges, pose significant health hazards, and disrupt daily routines worldwide. In this study, we have investigated the conditions favoring the prolonged fog events in Delhi during January 2024 using observations, back trajectories, and reanalysis datasets. Analysis of visibility observations reveals that foggy (54, 121, 139, and 372 half-hours of very dense, dense, moderate, and shallow fog, respectively) conditions persisted in Delhi for 46 % of the time during the study period. The existence of 3–4 days of cold wave to severe cold wave conditions and the lack of passage of strong western disturbances across north and northwest India have also favored the prolonged fog formation. In addition, high relative humidity (>80 %), shallow boundary layer (216 m), stable weather conditions such as the absence of significant surface winds, the existence of cold wave to severe cold wave, temperature inversion (up to 4 °C), poor ventilation, and presence of high particulate matter (PM10: 298 μg/m3 and PM2.5: 182 μg/m3) facilitated the fog formation. Further, analyses reveal a spurt in daily particulate matter (PM10: 603 μg/m3 and PM2.5: 420 μg/m3; 13.4 and 28 times, respectively, exceeded the WHO air quality guideline levels) along with 4.5 h of zero visibility on 14th January. The analysis of particulate matter reveals the dominance of fine particles from nearby regions, which could have originated from the large-scale anthropogenic open biomass burning used for heating activities. The results derived from this study indicate the need for an accurate representation of the local anthropogenic emissions in the atmospheric models to improve the predictability of air quality and fog and provide insights into the need for their control, particularly during such extreme events.

Geometry of Non-Diffusive Tracer Transport in Gridded Atmospheric Models

Geometry of Non-Diffusive Tracer Transport in Gridded Atmospheric Models

Projections of non-exhaust emissions from brake wear across Japan for 2020–2050

The concerns regarding the detrimental impacts of the increasing proportion of non-exhaust emissions are growing, even though there is a decrease in exhaust emissions from vehicles worldwide. Brake wear is a source of non-exhaust emissions. Despite the high density of traffic in Japan, the emission from brake wear has rarely been the target of studies. The objectives of this study are to estimate the environmental concentrations of copper (Cu) and antimony (Sb) released from brake wear in Japan and compare these concentrations on an annual basis (from 2020 to 2050). The Cu content in brake pads is estimated to decrease greatly from 2021 to 2025, whereas the Sb content is estimated to a moderate level by 2050. In this study, we used an atmospheric dispersion model to predict the reduction in Cu and Sb concentrations emitted from vehicles; owing to the transition to electric vehicles equipped with regenerative brakes (which will generate fewer wear particles), the Cu and Sb emissions in 2050 will decrease by 98 and 89 %, respectively, compared to the emissions noted in 2020. However, the contribution of conventional and electric vehicles to Cu and Sb concentrations will reverse in 30 years, owing to the country's goal that electric passenger vehicles will account for 100 % of the new-vehicle sales by 2035. By 2050, the contribution of conventional vehicles to Cu and Sb concentrations will be only 1 and 3 %, respectively, which will be from conventional vehicles supplied to the market by 2034. Thus, based on the future estimates of the number of vehicles and the composition of their brake pads, we predicted the environmental concentrations of Cu and Sb released from brake wear. The projections presented in this study can serve future interdisciplinary studies on environmental pollution, anthropological emissions reduction, and sustainable development.

Lognormal mode dissociation method based on intrinsic characteristics of aerosol size distribution

Aerosols significantly affect the transmission of optical signals in the atmosphere, necessitating accurate atmospheric models for the performance evaluation of electro-optic devices. Aerosol size distribution is a critical parameter in these models, and the lognormal function is commonly used to mathematically represent it. This study aims to handle the lack of a solid criterion for determining the number of lognormal modes and introduces an improved scheme that leverages the characteristics of the second derivative (SD) of the Gaussian curve to identify the mode amount and to initialize mode parameters for fitting. The optimization problem is solved using a genetic algorithm, incorporating a goodness-of-fit index to determine the presence of spurious modes. For aerosol size distributions characterized by a single Gaussian peak, mode parameters such as mode radius and width can be straightforwardly identified through the positions of peaks and roots on the SD curve. However, the original mode dissociation method may overlook potential modes in distributions composed of superimposed Gaussian peaks. Numerical tests indicate that such oversights can result in substantial errors in calculating the aerosol extinction coefficient, with relative errors exceeding 100%. The proposed scheme significantly enhances the accuracy of mode dissociation in aerosol size distribution, reducing errors in aerosol extinction coefficient calculations by approximately 40% when applied to data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). An additional benefit of this method is its ability to constrain the number of lognormal modes in an aerosol size distribution. Results from applying this scheme to data from selected AERONET sites reveal that over half of the size distributions consist of more than two lognormal modes, highlighting the effectiveness of the proposed approach in capturing complex aerosol behaviors.

Toward a Comprehensive Grid of Cepheid Models with MESA. I. Uncertainties of the Evolutionary Tracks of Intermediate-mass Stars

Helium-burning stars, in particular Cepheids, are especially difficult to model, as the choice of free parameters can greatly impact the shape of the blue loops—the part of the evolutionary track at which the instability strip is crossed. Contemporary one-dimensional stellar evolution codes, like Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), come with a large number of free parameters that allow us to model the physical processes in stellar interiors under many assumptions. The uncertainties that arise from this freedom are rarely discussed in the literature despite their impact on the evolution of the model. We calculate a grid of evolutionary models with MESA, varying several controls, like solar mixture of heavy elements, mixing-length theory prescription, nuclear reaction rates, the scheme to determine convective boundaries, atmosphere model, and temporal and spatial resolution, and quantify their impact on age and location of the evolutionary track on the H-R diagram from the main sequence until the end of core helium burning. Our investigation was conducted for a full range of masses and metallicities expected for classical Cepheids. The uncertainties are significant, especially during core helium burning, reaching or exceeding the observational uncertainties of logTeff and logL for detached eclipsing binary systems. For ≥9 M ⊙ models, thin convective shells develop and evolve erratically, not allowing the models to converge. A careful inspection of Kippenhahn diagrams and convergence study is advised for a given mass and metallicity, to assess how severe this problem is and to what extent it may affect the evolution.

The impact of coupled 3D shortwave radiative transfer on surface radiation and cumulus clouds over land

Abstract. Radiative transfer is a 3D process, but most atmospheric models consider radiation only in the vertical direction for computational efficiency. This results in inaccurate surface radiation fields, as the horizontal transport of radiation is neglected. Previous work on 3D radiative effects mainly used 3D radiative transfer uncoupled from the flow solver. In contrast, our current work uses 3D radiative transfer coupled to the flow solver to study its impact on the development of clouds and the resulting impact on the domain-averaged surface solar irradiance. To this end, we performed a series of realistic large-eddy simulations with MicroHH. To improve the level of realism of our radiation, we first included the direct effect of aerosols using aerosol data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global reanalysis. Next, we performed simulations with 1D radiative transfer and with a coupled ray tracer for 12 d on which shallow cumulus clouds formed over Cabauw, the Netherlands. In general, simulations with the coupled ray tracer have a higher domain-averaged liquid water path, larger clouds, and similar cloud cover compared to simulations with 1D radiative transfer. Furthermore, the domain-averaged direct radiation is decreased with 3D radiative transfer, and the diffuse radiation is increased. However, the average difference in global radiation is less than 1 W m−2, as the increase in global radiation from uncoupled 3D radiative transfer is counterbalanced by a decrease in global radiation caused by changes in cloud properties.

Unified Atmospheric Attenuation Models for Visible and Infrared Wavelengths

Unified Atmospheric Attenuation Models for Visible and Infrared Wavelengths