Calculations of the expected refraction of the five ITER Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter (TIP) chords are presented for a range of conditions including high-density axisymmetric, ELMing H-mode cases and shattered pellet disruption mitigation cases. The calculations are carried out with a newly developed ray tracing code capable of following TIP’s 10.59μm laser beams through arbitrary 3D electron density profiles. Using JOREK simulations of ELM density perturbations in a 15MA ITER baseline plasma, it is shown that refraction from ELMs is expected to be negligible. It is found, however, that TIP interferometers will be able to clearly resolve the line-integrated density perturbation from ELMs and contribute to the ITER measurement requirement “14. H-mode, ELMs and L-H mode transition indicator”. Calculations of the expected refraction in a NIMROD simulated shattered pellet disruption mitigation scenario with peak local electron densities of ne=3.7×1021 m−3 (max line-averaged densities of navg=1.3×1021 m−3) also show tolerable refraction and it is likely that most, if not all chords, would avoid signal loss. For both axisymmetric and structured plasmas with line-averaged densities in the mid to upper 1021 m−3 range, values likely present only during disruption mitigation, refraction becomes significant and could limit the ability of TIP to make reliable density measurements.