Rolling Contact Fatigue (RCF) is a major cause of rail failure leading to replacement of rails. RCF defects are caused by a combination of high normal and tangential stresses between the wheel and rail. In this study, a methodology has been proposed to evaluate P-F (Potential failure-functional failure) interval of RCF defects based on RCF defect rate distribution and fatigue design life distribution. For estimating fatigue design life distribution, load under variable amplitude has been considered which is a case in the mixed traffic scenario. Stochastic S-N curve has been considered to account for probabilistic nature of fatigue life. The stress history can be calculated from the actual load history. RCF defect distribution can be estimated from the probability density function of the defects from the actual field data. The proper estimation of P-F interval will help the infrastructure managers to define rail inspection interval scientifically.