Mixed-member Electoral Systems Research Articles

Strategic choices and electoral gains: unpacking constituency campaign effectiveness in Germany's mixed-member electoral system

ABSTRACT Election campaigns are a critical component of democratic competition, and existing literature has extensively discussed the rise in personalization and localization in recent campaigns. However, the extent to which campaign strategies influence electoral success remains controversial. Therefore, our study examined the impact of candidate – and constituency-centred campaigns on nominal and party-list votes in mixed-member electoral systems and investigated which strategies were most effective on election day. Our analysis draws on representative national candidate surveys for German federal elections in 2009, 2013, and 2017. Our findings indicate that personalized campaign communication significantly affects electoral success, with greater emphasis on the candidate than the party, resulting in increased nominal votes. Our results also suggest that parties benefit from personalized campaigns as they increase party-list votes as well. However, neither localized campaign issues nor candidate-centred campaign organization pay off in electoral terms. Furthermore, candidates’ party affiliation significantly influences electoral success, demonstrating the continued relevance of parties to campaign dynamics and electoral outcomes.

Candidate awareness in mixed-member electoral systems: A data-driven approach

Voters need to be at least aware of candidates to hold them accountable. How does this work in mixed-member electoral systems where nominal votes often play a subordinate role and voters could entirely rely on party heuristics to choose between candidates? In lieu of existing causal explanations, we compile data on many factors contributing to candidate awareness and use a data-driven approach to identify variables that strongly predict voters’ awareness of district candidates in the run-up of the German Federal Elections 2009, 2013 and 2017. We find factors that describe candidate-, voter-, and district characteristics politically to be important out-of-sample predictors in contrast to factors that describe them socio-demographically. Interestingly, we find that incumbency predicts candidate awareness, but it does not matter whether incumbents were elected nominally or via a party list. These findings can be a starting point for developing causal theories and have implications for our understanding of how voters perceive the different types of MPs a mixed-member electoral system generates.

The logic of campaign spending in mixed-member electoral systems

In this research note we reason that campaign strategies that are strategic in “pure” majoritarian systems and “pure” proportional systems may (or may not) change when the two are combined in a mixed-member electoral system with a majoritarian and a proportional tier. We argue that campaign effort by individual candidates should be a function of the tier or tiers in which the candidate is competing and whether he or she expects to be a strong contender. We then test our theorizing with candidate campaign spending data from New Zealand, which has used a mixed-member system since 1996. We find support for our reasoning regarding when the strategies appropriate for pure majoritarian and pure proportional systems should be adapted when applied in their mixed counterparts.

The shift to consensus democracy and limits of institutional design in Asia

A ‘majoritarian turn’ identified by scholars of Asian democracy in the 1990s saw the rise of mixed-member majoritarian electoral systems and more centripetal party competition across both Northeast and Southeast Asia. In this paper, we argue that since the 2000s, the institutional pendulum has shifted, with more consensual approaches to democracy appearing to better represent key identity cleavages of gender, ethnicity, and territory—a trend evident not just in East Asia but South Asia as well. This new ‘Asian model’ typically involves increasing the proportional components of existing electoral formulas and grafting gender quotas, multiethnic party lists, and quasi-federal elements onto ostensibly majoritarian state structures. We show that these reforms have, as intended, mostly increased female and ethnic minority representation and decentralized governance structures. At the same time, however, these de jure changes are not associated with de facto political development in terms of greater democratic quality, counter to theoretical expectations. Indeed, democracy has declined across most of Asia at the same time as its democratic institutions have become more consensual.

Contamination effects in mixed-member electoral systems: a dissemination of measurement techniques

There is widespread agreement that both tiers of a mixed-member electoral system do not operate independently of one another and that instead they interact, producing contamination effects. These tend to raise the number of parties away from what Duverger’s Law or the M + 1 rule suggest. However, the field has not yet determined an undisputed methodological approach to answer the following question: raised by how much, exactly? This paper identifies and differentiates amongst three major measurement techniques, herein titled the Difference Approach, the Likeness Approach, and the Simulation Approach. By doing so, it provides a more concise map of each of their logics, their varied implementations, their drawbacks, as well as possible ways forward.

Cross-tier personal gains in mixed electoral systems

ABSTRACT We extend the research on contamination effects in mixed-member electoral systems by considering the impact of “dual candidacies” in systems that combine SMD and open-list PR rules. We make three claims. First, we argue that dual-listed candidates have incentives to run campaigns that enable them to maximize their share of personal votes in both tiers. Second, the effect of a dual listing is conditioned by incumbency and party-list position. Finally, we argue that parties themselves benefit from strong dual candidates in the PR list election itself. To test our argument, we analyze the 2016 Lithuanian parliamentary election. Using elite interviews and statistical models of electoral data, our analysis supports our claims. We provide important contribution to contamination literature by demonstrating that parties received a direct, list-tier benefit from nominating SMD candidates, who successfully build personal vote coalitions.

The gendered political ambition cycle in mixed-member electoral systems

This article introduces a theoretical model that shows how four mechanisms (work–life balance, psychological, gatekeeper bias and diversity mechanisms) explain why pursuing a nomination as list Members of Parliament is the more attractive option for women in mixed-member electoral systems. It also demonstrates how women’s resulting greater likelihood of being list Members of Parliament creates what we call a gendered cycle, further reducing women’s interest in the single-member district tier. To empirically test our model, we present quantitative data for the case of New Zealand and Germany, as well as qualitative interview data collected from members of German parties’ women’s auxiliary organisations.

РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ ОСНОВНЫХ ПРИНЦИПОВ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЬНОГО ПРАВА В ИЗБИРАТЕЛЬНЫХ СИСТЕМАХ

Introduction: the article analyzes the fundamental principles of electoral law and how they are implemented in various electoral systems. Purpose: to identify the objective criteria a democratic electoral system must meet. Methods: along with general scientific methods, there have been used specific scientific methods, including comparative legal and systemic ones. Results: there have been identified three principles of electoral law that can be recognized as fundamental: the principles of equal, free, and fair election. They mutually presuppose, guarantee, and supplement each other. Moreover, provisions of one principle can be corrected by provisions of the others. Thus, the principles of equal, free and fair election form an integral sustainable system whose elements are in a dialectical unity. These principles cover all the subjects of electoral law and electoral process and they must be followed at each stage of elections. Furthermore, they are complex and include provisions of a number of secondary principles (the principles of universal, equal, direct suffrage in a secret ballot, etc.). Conclusions: the above principles are implemented to the greatest extent in ranked voting. Some ranked voting systems ensure proportional representation of parties. Elections held based on such voting assure free and equal participation of both independent and party candidates. Many other majoritarian, proportional or mixed-member electoral systems do not meet the abovementioned criteria.

Representation, legitimacy, and innovation

Increasing interdependence both within and among nations will create in the foreseeable future increasing numbers of collective action, or free-rider, problems. Dealing with those problems will require both significant increases in state coercion and increases in citizens’ feelings of solidarity and duty toward others both within current nations and across large geographic areas. State coercion of defectors provides an ecological niche within which the duty and solidarity of cooperators can survive and thrive. Considerable thought and ingenuity are required to make the needed coercion minimal, well-designed so as to protect rather than driving out duty and solidarity, and above all legitimate. Innovations in the representative system are and will be crucial to making the state coercion we need more legitimate. This paper lists some innovations in thought and practice that can make representation in the legislative, administrative, and societal realms more legitimate, both normatively and in the perception of the citizens. These include mixed member electoral systems, new conceptions of the representative role, new approaches to corruption, evolutions in the theory and institutions that protect human rights, and better conceptions of and practical attention to deliberation, legislative negotiation, recursive communication, descriptive representation, representation by lot, participatory budgeting, and civic vouchers.

Mixed-member electoral systems, best loser rules, and the descriptive representation of women

Proportional representation (PR) electoral systems are commonly considered more advantageous for the election of women compared to majoritarian electoral systems. In mixed electoral systems, female candidates are often more likely to be elected through the PR tier compared to women running in single-member district races. While most mixed systems employ a closed-list, a number of legislatures use a best loser provision whereby losing district candidates are ordered on the PR list based on their performance in single-member districts. This paper examines the extent to which best loser laws impact the election of women using candidate data from sub-national legislatures in Mexico and Germany and Japan's House of Representatives. We find the contamination of PR lists by single-member district results reduces the advantage women candidates have in the PR tier. Best loser limits the ability of political parties to use PR to represent groups underrepresented in single-member district elections.

An electoral calculus? Dual incentives and committee assignment in the UK’s mixed-member legislatures

ABSTRACTAlthough mixed-member electoral systems offer an apparent opportunity to observe how different rules shape politicians’ behaviour, ‘contamination’ between the SMD and PR-list tiers has frequently confounded academic work. Investigating Scotland and Wales’ mixed-member legislatures by exploiting their different chamber sizes and an unusual dual candidacy prohibition in Wales, modelling of committee assignments uncovers a split finding. Controlling for membership of the lead governing party, list members have a higher committee workload than their constituency colleagues, and members with previous employment experience in justice and health are more likely to be assigned to the corresponding subject committee once elected. Elsewhere, expectations that members might seek assignments that best suit theorized re-election interests are not found. The hypothesized influence of electoral rules is strongly conditioned by the small size of the legislature in Wales.

Book review: Split-Ticket Voting in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Theoretical and Methodological Investigation

Book review: Split-Ticket Voting in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Theoretical and Methodological Investigation

Private Member Bills and Electoral Connection in Wales

The ‘best of both worlds’ thesis contends that mixed-member electoral systems should provide individual legislator accountability via single-member district (SMD) elections, as well as collective party accountability via a multi-member district (MMD) tier. This study evaluates the mandate divide and electoral connection under the Welsh mixed-member proportional system of representation during the 3rd (2007–11) and 4th (2011–16) Assemblies. Consistent with the best of both worlds thesis, electorally vulnerable SMD legislators are found to make more member bill attempts, and those whose member bills are randomly selected for introduction enjoy a significant boost in their electoral margin of victory. There is some evidence that MMD legislators are rewarded by their party selectorates for member bill efforts with a move up the party list, although this result is less robust. An additional check confirms the absence of contamination across electoral tiers.

Three Faces of Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Parties and Candidates in Germany, 2005–13

Constituency campaigns are multidimensional and complex: parties and candidates are deeply entangled, and, at least in mixed-member electoral systems, local constituency campaigns are embedded within national party campaigns. Recent discussions have focused on aspects of campaign change in European democracies, especially disentanglement in terms of individualisation, personalisation, and/or localisation. This study contributes to the discussion both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, three dimensions (‘faces’) of constituency campaigns are differentiated: organisational partyness, vertical integration, and communicative personalisation. This threefold differentiation allows for a more precise analysis of campaign patterns by differentiating party–candidate (organisation, communication) and intra-party (vertical integration) aspects. Constituency campaigns in the 2005, 2009, and 2013 German federal elections are empirically examined. The analysis explains why candidates decide for one or another campaign pattern. These three faces are empirically distinct as well. Furthermore, we argue that parties remain vital for the organisation of campaigns despite a decline in centralisation. Addressing the communicative face, the analysis shows that candidate-related issues are important, but a mix of party- and candidate-related communication gains importance.

Mixed-member proportional electoral systems – the best of both worlds?

ABSTRACTMixed electoral systems are often associated with the hope of combining proportional election outcomes with a concentrated party system, and thus achieving the best of both worlds in electoral system design. It is especially the mixed-member proportional (MMP) variant that has retained a good reputation in this regard. Via a comparative analysis, we analyze whether or not the general praise for MMP systems is corroborated empirically. Our results show that the performance of MMP systems is heavily influenced by technical details, and elections conducted under MMP vary broadly with regard to possible proportionality–concentration combinations.

Keeping One’s Seat: The Competitiveness of MP Renomination in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems

Mixed-member electoral systems are supposed to simultaneously produce coherent parties and ensure the representation of local interests. Whether these goals are achieved depends on the ability of parties and districts to control members of parliament (MPs). We regard the competitiveness of MPs’ bids for renomination as a crucial indicator of the degree to which MPs are punished when deviating from the interests of their principals. The theoretical account we develop makes the competitiveness of MP renomination conditional on the characteristics of the electoral system, the candidate selection regime, an MP’s parliamentary behavior, government status, and district characteristics. Corroborating our expectations, the analysis of the candidate selection processes in the run-up to the 2013 German Bundestag election shows that an increasing degree of ideological deviation from the party line—as expressed in parliamentary speeches—results in a worse position on the party list for opposition MPs but does not affect the renomination of list candidates from the government camp or district candidates.

On the mismeasurement of sincere and strategic voting in mixed-member electoral systems

Under mixed systems, voters cast two votes to elect the same legislative body: one vote for parties using proportional rules and one for candidates using majoritarian rules. Voters are said to cast straight-tickets if the candidate they vote for is of the same party as their proportional vote; otherwise, they are said to cast split-tickets. Split-ticket voting is commonly used as a measure of strategic voting as splitters are usually assumed to express their true preference in one vote but vote strategically in the other. This study challenges this practice showing that split-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate strategic voting, just as straight-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate a sincere vote. This result has wider consequences as it indicates that measuring strategic voting from observed behaviour can result in incorrect conclusions about vote choice.

N. F. Batto , C. Huang , T. C. Tan , and G. W. Cox , Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context: Taiwan, Japan and Beyond, University of Michigan Press, 2016

N. F. Batto , C. Huang , T. C. Tan , and G. W. Cox , Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context: Taiwan, Japan and Beyond, University of Michigan Press, 2016

Ticket-splitting in mixed-member systems: on the importance of seat linkage between electoral tiers

In mixed-member electoral systems, voters usually have two votes: a nominal and a list vote. According to some studies, voters are increasingly using them to cast a split-ticket vote. However, very little is known about whether the type of mixed-member system, and in particular whether the allocation of seats across tiers is linked or not, creates different sets of incentives for this behaviour. This article provides new insights into the topic by analysing survey data from seven countries and 18 elections since 1990. It is found that the proportion of split-ticket votes is greater in mixed-member proportional than in mixed-member majoritarian systems. The results suggest that voters understand the operation of the electoral system and its consequences for the distribution of seats among parties, and adapt their behaviour accordingly.

Losers’ and Non-voters’ Consent: Democratic Satisfaction in the 2009 and 2013 Elections in Germany

The literature on losers’ consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy between electoral losers and winners. However, little of the literature addresses the complexities of mixed member electoral systems or compares this winner–loser divergence to that of non-voters. An analysis of post-election surveys in Germany in 2009 and 2013 allows for a disaggregation of types of losers and non-voters. Results find that voting for a district candidate from a losing party has a greater effect on perceptions than voting for a losing party in the proportional representation tier, while losing in both appeared to slow the decline in positive evaluations of the system. Meanwhile clear distinctions between perceptions of different types of non-voters emerge.