Mitigation Strategies Research Articles

The impact of weather patterns on inter-annual crop yield variability

Inter-annual variations in crop production have significant implications for global food security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability. Existing crop yield prediction models primarily using meteorological variables may not adequately encapsulate the full breadth of weather influences on crop development processes, such as compound or extreme events. Incorporating weather patterns into crop models could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental conditions affecting growth, enabling more accurate and earlier yield predictions.Our study examines 30 distinct UK Met Office weather patterns (MO30) based on mean sea level pressure. We investigate their association with weather conditions that limit winter wheat yield in the UK (1990–2020). Blocked, negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns create the highest risk of temperatures that are below optimal for crop yield. However, the connection between weather patterns and yield is complex, with differing effects at a regional scale and even at which point in the growth cycle they appear. It was found that anticyclonic weather patterns during sowing, emergence, vernalisation, anthesis, and grain filling exhibit a relationship with good crop yields with a Spearman correlation coefficient of up to 0.55 for a single weather pattern (WP3 during vernalisation in South East England), whilst cyclonic patterns can help during the terminal spikelet phenological phase. The strongest positive correlations were during sowing, emergence, and vernalisation, whilst the largest negatives were observed in anthesis and grain filling.The potential of combining weather patterns with existing crop simulation models to produce earlier and more accurate yield predictions is shown. This would enable effective crop management and climate mitigation strategies, critical to strengthening food security. Projected changes in weather pattern occurrences in the late 21st century will likely reduce crop yields. This is due to increased cyclonic weather patterns, which bring warmer, wetter conditions during the wheat's vernalisation stage, followed by warmer, drier conditions during the anthesis and grain-filling phases.

Analysis of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions in 3D Printing: Implications for Indoor Air Quality

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the context of 3D printing, a rapidly advancing technology that is transforming manufacturing processes. As the adoption of 3D printing grows, concerns regarding its potential impact on indoor air quality have emerged. This research addresses these concerns by investigating the risks associated with VOC emissions and proposing effective mitigation strategies. Using a robust methodology, filament and resin-based 3D printers were employed alongside VOC sampling equipment (Tenax tubes and personal pumps) to assess emissions. A detailed analysis of 49 VOCs revealed variable concentrations across different printing materials, with ethyl acetate being the dominant compound in resin printing and decanal in filament printing. While individual VOC levels were below 1% of occupational exposure limits, total VOC concentrations frequently exceeded the recommended indoor threshold of 200 µg/m3, particularly in resin-based processes. This raises concerns about the combined effects of multiple VOCs, some of which are known carcinogens. These findings underscore the need for further investigation into the cumulative health impacts of prolonged exposure to multiple VOCs. The study also emphasises the importance of accounting for both facility-specific conditions and material emissions to fully understand the environmental and health consequences of 3D printing. Preventative measures, such as enclosing 3D printers and equipping them with extraction systems, are recommended to safeguard user health.

Mitigation strategies and policies recommendation for the economic impact of the Sunda Strait Megathrust: Seismic risk probability assessment and cost loss estimates

This study investigates seismic risk and potential impacts of future earthquakes in the Sunda Strait region, known for its susceptibility to significant seismic events due to the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The aim is to assess the likelihood of major earthquakes, estimate their impact, and propose strategies to mitigate associated risks. The research uses historical seismic data and probabilistic models to forecast earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 8.2 Mw. The Gutenberg-Richter model helps project potential earthquake occurrences and their impacts. The findings suggest that the probability of a major earthquake could occur as early as 2026–2027, with a more significant event estimated to likely occur around 2031. Economic estimates for a 7.8–8.2 Mw earthquake suggest potential damage of up to USD 1.255 billion with significant loss of life. The study identifies key vulnerabilities, such as inadequate building foundations and ineffective disaster management infrastructure, which could worsen the impact of future seismic events. In conclusion, the research highlights the urgent need for comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. Recommendations include reinforcing infrastructure to comply with seismic standards, implementing advanced early warning systems, and enhancing public education on earthquake preparedness. Additionally, government policies must address these issues by increasing funding for disaster management, enforcing building regulations, and incorporating traditional knowledge into construction practices. These measures are essential to reducing future earthquake impacts and improving community resilience.

Microbial carbon utilization in a boreal lake under the combined pressures of brownification and eutrophication: insights from a field experiment

AbstractClimate and land use changes can increase terrestrial runoff to aquatic systems, leading to brownification and eutrophication in northern boreal lakes. Brownification may boost bacterial respiration and production, while eutrophication can enhance primary production and algal blooms. However, their combined effects on basal producers and bacterial carbon utilization are less understood. This study explores the combined impacts of the two stressors: brownification and eutrophication on microbial dynamics in Lake Bolmen. Utilizing a field mesocosm experimental design, treatments received different combinations of organic matter (OM) and inorganic nutrients to simulate predicted future scenarios. Results showed that OM additions significantly increased bacterial production and respiration, regardless of nutrient additions. Nutrient additions enhanced bacterial production but did not affect respiration. Both nutrients and OM stimulated bacterial growth efficiency. Labile carbon from DOM was the main driver of higher bacterial respiration and short-term production increases. Fluorescence data indicated that the combination of brownification and eutrophication led to higher terrestrial DOM utilization than each stressor alone. The study suggests that future boreal lakes may become more heterotrophic, thus increasing CO2 release. These findings highlight the complex interactions between DOM and nutrients and underscore the importance of considering multiple stressors in lake management and mitigation strategies.

Restrictions on pharmacist dispensing of mifepristone remain a hard pill to swallow

AbstractThis analysis explores the basis for the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requiring a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for mifepristone for the termination of intrauterine pregnancy. Controversies surround mifepristone and its REMS. The safety and efficacy of mifepristone are briefly reviewed with respect to FDA's actions. It is difficult to justify the continued requirement for a REMS for mifepristone by applying the regulatory framework and considering mifepristone's safety record. Drugs with higher risks are on the US market without an FDA‐mandated REMS. Canada removed all restrictions on the use of mifepristone for abortion, which has not resulted in patient safety concerns. All pharmacists should be permitted to dispense mifepristone. The continued requirement for a mifepristone REMS in the US appears to be based more on politics rather than evidence.

Effects of Oregano on Lactation Performance, Nutrient Digestibility, Ruminal Fermentation Parameters, and Methane Emissions in Dairy Cows: A Meta-Analysis

Growing concerns regarding antibiotic use in livestock, due to antibiotic resistance and potential human transmission, have led to increased interest in herbs and their derivatives, including essential oils, which possess antimicrobial properties that may enhance overall productivity and serve as a strategy for methane mitigation. The objective of this meta-analysis was to investigate the effects of adding oregano to the diet in different forms (essential oils, plant materials, or leaves) on the dry matter intake (DMI), milk yield (MY), milk components, nutrient digestibility, ruminal fermentation parameters, and methane (CH4) emissions of dairy cows. A literature search was conducted to identify papers published from 2000 to 2023. Effect size for all outcomes was reported as a standardized means difference (SMD) and raw means difference with 95% confidence intervals. Heterogeneity was determined using the Q test and I2 statistic. The results of the meta-analysis indicated that adding oregano had no effect on DMI (SMD = 0.081; p = 0.507) and MY (SMD = 0.060; p = 0.665). Milk fat percentage, milk protein percentage, and milk lactose percentage were not affected by oregano. The addition of oregano to the diet significantly decreased dry matter digestibility (SMD = −0.502; p = 0.013), crude protein digestibility (SMD = −0.374; p = 0.040), and neutral detergent fiber digestibility (SMD = −0.505; p = 0.014). Ruminal pH (SMD = −0.122; p = 0.411), total volatile fatty acids concentration (SMD = −0.038; p = 0.798), acetate (SMD = −0.046; p = 0.757), propionate (SMD = 0.007; p = 0.960), and butyrate (SMD = 0.037; p = 0.801) proportion were not affected by oregano. The addition of oregano to the diet tended to decrease CH4/DMI (SMD = −0.275; p = 0.095) but did not affect CH4 production (SMD = −0.156; p = 0.282). Heterogeneity (Q and I2) was non-significant for all parameters. We conclude that the inclusion of oregano in various forms (essential oils, plant materials, or leaves) in the diet of dairy cows reduces nutrient digestibility but does not significantly affect DMI, MY, milk components, ruminal fermentation parameters, or CH4 production. Future research should focus on optimizing the dosage of oregano (both EOs and plant materials) and exploring the impact of its form on lactation, nutrient digestibility, ruminal fermentation, and CH4 emissions in dairy cows.

Assessment of Urban Resilience to Floods: A Spatial Planning Framework for Cities

Urbanization-led economic growth drives infrastructure investments and population accumulation in cities, hence exploiting natural resources at an extreme rate. In this context, coastal cities have become vulnerable to climate change-induced extreme weather events and human-made disasters in recent history, where effective measures to improve the resilience of cities are pivotal for developing sustainable living environments. This study proposes a framework for assessing urban resilience to natural disasters (floods) using bottom-up spatial interactions among natural, physical, and social systems within cities and regions. It is noted that seminal studies focus on either the mitigation or adaptation strategies within urban environments to assess disaster resilience, where limited multidisciplinary and operational models hinder evaluations at the city scale. Therefore, urban system interactions and quantifiable parameters proposed in this framework are essential for policymakers and disaster management agencies in the timely allocation of resources to optimize the recovery process. Moreover, spatial planning agencies can adopt resilience mapping to identify the potential risk zones and orient sustainable land use management. Urban resilience can be embodied in spatial strategies with the operational framework proposed here, and future urban growth scenarios can be tested in multiple disaster conditions.

Implementing Loss Prevention by Identifying Trends and Insights to Help Policyholders Mitigate Risks and Reduce Claims

Loss prevention is a critical focus for both insurers and policyholders, as rising claim volumes lead to increased premiums and financial losses. This paper explores the implementation of loss prevention strategies through the identification of trends and insights derived from historical data, predictive analytics, and emerging technologies. By leveraging these insights, insurers can recommend proactive risk mitigation measures to policyholders, reducing the occurrence of claims and overall risks. The study begins by analyzing historical data trends across various sectors such as auto, property, and health insurance, identifying key factors that drive claims. Predictive analytics is then applied to forecast future risks, allowing insurers to develop personalized strategies for mitigating those risks. Emerging technologies like Internet of Things (IoT) devices and artificial intelligence (AI) are highlighted for their role in providing real-time data and early warning systems, which help to prevent incidents before they escalate into claims. This paper also outlines practical loss prevention strategies for policyholders, such as installing smart home devices to monitor potential hazards, encouraging safe driving habits through telematics, and promoting health and wellness programs to lower medical claims. These risk mitigation strategies are shown to provide significant return on investment (ROI) for policyholders by reducing claims frequency and severity. Through case studies and data analysis, the paper demonstrates that proactive loss prevention not only benefits policyholders by lowering their risk exposure but also helps insurers reduce claims costs and enhance profitability. In conclusion, this research highlights the importance of trend identification, predictive analytics, and emerging technologies in the future of loss prevention, offering a path forward for insurers and policyholders to work collaboratively in mitigating risks.

The association between brominated flame retardants exposure with Parkinson’s disease in US adults: a cross-sectional study of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009–2016

BackgroundIncreasing evidence suggests that environmental factors play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Humans are simultaneously exposed to multiple brominated flame retardants (BFRs) in the environment. However, the relationship between BFRs and PD remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the overall association between BFRs and PD in a nationally representative US population and to further identify significant chemicals.MethodsThis study used data from 7,161 NHANES participants from 2009 through 2016. The serum BFRs registry included PBDE-28, PBDE-47, PBDE-85, PBDE-99, PBDE-100, PBDE-153, PBDE-154, PBDE-183, PBDE-209, and PBB-153. A survey-weighted generalized logistic regression model with restricted cubic splines (RCS) was used to evaluate the association between single BFRs exposure and periodontitis. Meanwhile, weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) were used to evaluate the overall association of mixed frankincense powder with periodontitis and to identify significant chemicals. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the robustness of the results.ResultsAmong the 7,161 participants, 65 had PD. PD patients were older (mean age 57.79 vs. 46.57 years) and had a higher proportion of females (70.86%) compared to non-PD participants. Serum levels of PBB-153 were significantly higher in those with PD. Logistic regression analyses revealed a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship between serum PBB-153 and PD risk. The risk of PD increased with higher PBB-153 levels up to the 3rd quartile (Q3), beyond which the risk declined (Q3 vs. Q1: OR = 4.98, 95% CI = 1.79–13.86; Q4 vs. Q1: OR = 3.23, 95% CI = 1.03–10.08). PBB-153 (43.40%), PBDE-153 (24.75%), and PBDE-85 (19.51%) contributed most to the weighted quantile sum index associated with PD risk. Bayesian kernel machine regression confirmed the inverted U-shaped dose–response pattern for PBB-153 and the overall BFR mixture. Restricted cubic spline analyses corroborated the non-linear relationship between PBB-153 and PD, which was more pronounced among women and those aged 37–58 years. Sensitivity analyses substantiated these findings.ConclusionThis nationally representative cross-sectional study revealed a novel non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship between serum levels of the brominated flame retardant PBB-153 and Parkinson’s disease risk in U.S. adults. The risk increased with higher PBB-153 exposure up to a point, beyond which it declined. This complex dose–response pattern highlights the importance of considering potential hormetic mechanisms and effect modifiers when evaluating environmental exposures and neurodegenerative diseases. Further research is warranted to elucidate the underlying biological pathways and inform risk mitigation strategies.

All the sites we cannot see: Sources and mitigation of false negatives in RNA modification studies.

RNA modifications are essential for human health - too much or too little of them leads to serious illnesses ranging from neurodevelopmental disorders to cancer. Technical advances in RNA modification sequencing are beginning to uncover the RNA targets of diverse RNA-modifying enzymes that are dysregulated in disease. However, the emerging transcriptome-wide maps of modified nucleosides installed by these enzymes should be considered as first drafts. In particular, a range of technical artefacts lead to false negatives- modified sites that are overlooked owing to technique-dependent, and often sequence-context-specific, 'blind spots'. In this Review, we discuss potential sources of false negatives in sequencing-based RNA modification maps, propose mitigation strategies and suggest guidelines for transparent reporting of sensitivity to detect modified sites in profiling studies. Important considerations for recognition and avoidance of false negatives include assessment and reporting of position-specific sequencing depth, identification of protocol-dependent RNA capture biases and applying controls for false negatives as well as for false positives. Despite their limitations, emerging maps of RNA modifications reveal exciting and largely uncharted potential for post-transcriptional control of all aspects of RNA function.

Spectral induced polarization measurements to detect different scales in oil and gas production tubing

Different varieties of scales, such as iron sulfide (FeS) scale, and calcium carbonate (CaCO3), commonly precipitate within oil and gas production tubing, posing operational challenges and production losses. It is essential to implement efficient mitigation strategies and preserve production integrity to detect and characterize these scales in an accurate and efficient manner. Prior studies have explored Spectral induced Polarization (SIP) for the early detection of FeS within porous media, mainly for environmental applications or for identifying FeS in carbonate formations from the perspective of reservoir characterization. This study focuses on applying SIP to address production-related issues in production tubing. For this purpose, six actual subsurface scale samples were analyzed using X-ray Diffraction, X-ray Fluorescence, and SIP techniques. These samples were categorized into three primary groups based on their composition: Pyrrhotite, Goethite, and Calcium Sulfate Hydrate or Calcite. The results indicate that combining phase shift and conductivity as frequency functions makes it possible to develop an approach to classify and differentiate between various scale types. This information could be instrumental in developing methods that can be potentially integrated into tubing systems to detect and characterize the different scale types.

The Scale Model Room Approach to Test the Performance of Airtight Membranes to Control Indoor Radon Levels and Radiation Exposure

Indoor radon is one of the most significant contributors to lung cancer after smoking. Mitigation strategies based on protecting buildings with radon barrier materials, combined with home ventilation or room pressurization, are regularly used. A scale model room made from a porous ignimbrite rich in radon precursors was used as an analogue to test the efficiency of fifteen airtight membranes to reduce radon levels, also in combination with room pressurization. The results of these experiments were considered together with previous ones to propose the scale model room approach as a tool for rapidly evaluating the performance of specially designed radon barrier materials, and for radiation exposure assessment. Relative reduction of indoor radon (RIR) ranges from −20 to −94%. The most effective materials were FPO membrane, single-component silane-terminated polymer membranes and synthetic resins. The presence of additives likely modified the composition and structure of some products, improving their radon barrier capacity. The introduction of room pressurization further reduced radon levels in the model room where the membranes were applied. The overpressure necessary to reach RIRs of the order of 85–90% is very low for materials that powerfully stop radon even without ventilation, but necessarily higher for poorer membranes.

Investigation of the Discharge Voltage in Electric Vehicle Motor Bearings

As the automotive industry undergoes a significant transition towards electric vehicles (EV), the matter of electric current discharge in motor bearings has emerged as a focal point of concern. This issue has gathered increased attention due to its potential to inflict damage upon bearing surfaces. The extent of damage inflicted by the discharges is intricately tied to the discharge energy, a factor directly influenced by both bearing capacitance and discharge voltage. In pursuit of a deeper understanding of discharge voltage dynamics within EV motor bearings, electric discharge tests were conducted using in-house modified single ball-on-disc contact and full bearing test equipment. Our test results at the single ball-on-disc contact show that discharge voltage adheres to a probabilistic distribution. Moreover, parallel investigations at the bearing level have yielded corroborative findings, reinforcing conclusions drawn from the single contact tests. These collective efforts contribute to a comprehensive understanding of electric discharge phenomena in motor bearings, essential for developing effective mitigation strategies and advancing the reliability of EV propulsion systems.

Assessment of Various Mitigation Strategies of Alkali-Silica Reactions in Concrete Using Accelerated Mortar Test.

The widespread use of reinforced concrete continues to face challenges, particularly in mitigating alkali-silica reaction (ASR), due to its detrimental effects on concrete strength and durability. This paper investigates the effectiveness of using binary supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) in mitigating ASR by incorporating metakaolin (MK) and waste glass powder (GP) as partial replacements for cement. Additionally, the potential of a new cement product, "NewCem Plus" (NCM), along with the use of basalt fibers and lithium, was evaluated through a 14-day accelerated mortar bar test following the ASTM C1260. This study also assessed concrete's properties such as its compressive strength and workability using the flow test. The results indicated that MK was effective, reducing expansion by 79%, 84%, and 88% with 10%, 20%, and 30% cement replacement, respectively, compared to the control mixture. On the other hand, GP showed a more modest reduction in expansion, with 10%, 20%, and 30% replacement levels reducing expansion by 20%, 43%, and 75%, respectively. Furthermore, the addition of lithium to MK significantly mitigated ASR, reducing expansion below the ASTM threshold. However, mixtures containing NewCem Plus, lithium, and basalt fibers showed minimal impact on ASR reduction. These findings underscore the viability of using binary or ternary blends of SCMs to mitigate ASR in concrete, encouraging their adoption in future concrete applications.

Evaluation and mitigation of cognitive biases in medical language models.

Increasing interest in applying large language models (LLMs) to medicine is due in part to their impressive performance on medical exam questions. However, these exams do not capture the complexity of real patient-doctor interactions because of factors like patient compliance, experience, and cognitive bias. We hypothesized that LLMs would produce less accurate responses when faced with clinically biased questions as compared to unbiased ones. To test this, we developed the BiasMedQA dataset, which consists of 1273 USMLE questions modified to replicate common clinically relevant cognitive biases. We assessed six LLMs on BiasMedQA and found that GPT-4 stood out for its resilience to bias, in contrast to Llama 2 70B-chat and PMC Llama 13B, which showed large drops in performance. Additionally, we introduced three bias mitigation strategies, which improved but did not fully restore accuracy. Our findings highlight the need to improve LLMs' robustness to cognitive biases, in order to achieve more reliable applications of LLMs in healthcare.

Evaluating interseismic deformation patterns in the North Tabriz Fault (Iran) using enhanced fitting of velocity field and analysis of surface deformation

Understanding the mechanisms and locations of interseismic strain accumulation along faults is essential for assessing earthquake hazards. However, the mechanical response during the transition from deep fault locking to creep behavior remains uncertain. Estimating the slip deficit within these transition zones is challenging. This study challenges the assumption of a constant depth distribution of interseismic slip rate along the fault over time and proposes variable locking depths as an alternative model. By rejecting the constant locking depth assumption, singularity issues during stress theorem resolution are resolved. To address this, we employ a methodology considering creep propagation within a fully elastic medium. This approach incorporates long-term deformation resulting from viscoelastic flow in the upper mantle and lower crust. Including viscoelastic effects improves the fit to interseismic deformation rates, yielding lower locking depths compared to fully elastic models. To conduct the investigation, the GPS velocity field is recovered using the forward problem and the boundary element method. Subsequently, a physics-based inversion approach, deep interseismic creep, is employed to determine interseismic deformation patterns on a strike-slip fault. Furthermore, this study examined the correlation between the dislocation parameters and their relationship, as well as established the probability distributions associated with each faulting parameter. This research highlights the importance of considering variable locking depths in understanding interseismic strain accumulation and the transition to creep behavior along faults. The findings contribute to improved earthquake hazard assessment and mitigation strategies by providing valuable insights into fault behavior mechanics along the North Tabriz Fault.

How to address the barriers to meaningful adolescent involvement in health research: A qualitative study.

The under-involvement of adolescents in health research has been attributed to multiple barriers faced by both researchers and adolescents. Despite identifying these barriers, the literature offers few solutions, mostly from the perspective of researchers. To address this, we conducted a qualitative study to explore effective strategies to address these barriers from the perspective of both researchers and adolescents. We conducted semi-structured interviews with adolescents (n = 25) and researchers (n = 25) from 14 countries. We included adolescents aged 10-24 years with experience of contributing to health research studies and health researchers with experience of engaging adolescents in health research. The interviews explored the mitigation strategies to commonly reported barriers to meaningful adolescent involvement for researchers and adolescents. Data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis. We identified three overarching strategies to address the commonly experienced barriers to adolescent involvement. First, participants suggested the need to plan for adequate resources, organizational support, capacity building, accessibility, compensation, and adolescents' safety. Second, they recommended building relationships by engaging the community, fostering trust and respect with adolescents, promoting teamwork, and maintaining transparent communication. Third, they proposed making involvement engaging for adolescents by creating a conducive environment, increasing their representation, using interesting methods, and addressing power dynamics. These findings build on the current best practices for adolescent involvement in health research by highlighting which strategies should be incorporated early on to plan for and prevent potential challenges to adolescent involvement.

Numerical simulation of transient thermal stresses in medium- and high-temperature latent heat storage systems with different fins: Incorporation of experimental stress cracking

Latent heat storage systems play an essential role in energy applications by improving the utilization efficiency and increasing the system flexibility. In this study, a pilot-scale medium-to-high-temperature latent heat storage system was constructed, and experimental heat storage tests were conducted. The temperature distribution of the experimental system was verified through numerical simulations that coupled the physical fields of the fluids, heat transfer, and solid mechanics. Also, the changing dynamic behavior of the stresses in the heat storage process related to the experiments was carefully studied. It was discovered that there were stress concentrations where the heat exchanger tubes touched the casing, with the highest level being over 370.00 MPa. Experimental stress rupture of the shell occurred in the horizontally arranged heat-exchange tubes, whereas vertically arranged tubes significantly reduced the stress at the contact surfaces by 24.70 % according to simulations. Simulation studies on various influencing factors indicated a more significant impact of spiral fins on the system stress. Increasing the preheating temperature by 30 °C reduced stress on the front surface by 109.67 MPa; each 20 °C increase in heating temperature raised the stress by 223.30 MPa, whereas the effect of heat transfer fluid speed was minimal. Regarding the heat-exchange tube dimensions, increasing the height increased the tube body stress by 25.74 MPa, whereas increasing the thickness reduced the stress by 24.20 %. This study comprehensively analyzed the stress dynamics and mitigation strategies of the high-temperature latent heat storage system under various conditions, emphasizing the importance of heat-exchange tube orientation, temperature control, and fin design for optimizing system performance and durability.

Conflicts and competing interests in infrastructure development: A case of N2 toll road project, wild coast, South Africa

The Wild Coast region in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, is arguably the least developed area, primarily due to its historical marginalisation caused by Apartheid. To counter this underdevelopment, the current government of South Africa plans to implement a 550 km N2 Toll Road Project to link East London in the Eastern Cape with Durban in KwaZulu-Natal. The government envisions that the project will lead to spatial development through improved accessibility to resources. However, it has been criticised by many, including local communities and environmental advocacy groups, who contend that it will result in socio-ecological disasters and conflicts. Against this backdrop, this study explored the differing views and conflicts among stakeholders affected by the N2 Toll Road Project. A qualitative research approach was adopted, involving in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) with government officials, local communities, business communities, and environmental advocacy groups. The findings indicate that the N2 Toll Road Project has generated significant controversy, with public opinion sharply divided between those who believe the road will have predominantly positive impacts and those who contend that its effects will be overwhelmingly negative. Concerns regarding the disruption of livelihoods, loss of land, destruction of socio-cultural heritage, and lack of consultation emerged as key sources of conflict among stakeholders. The study recommends the use of inclusive consultation processes and mitigation strategies to minimise conflicting ideologies among stakeholders.

Development of 1 ×1 km gridded emission inventory for air quality assessment and mitigation strategies from open biomass burning in Karnataka, India

In this work, we have developed a high-resolution (1 ×1 km grid) emission inventory of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from open biomass burning (OBB) in Karnataka for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2022. Secondary and field datasets were used to validate the emission inventories. The GIS-based statistical model and activity data were used to estimate greenhouse and air pollutant gas emissions from OBB (Forest, grassland, and crop fires). The uncertainty analysis of the emissions were done using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model and Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool was used for projecting the emissions to 2050 based on the annual average growth rate. According to our results, the total OBB burned areas (%) in Karnataka during the aforementioned years were 24.43, 15.69, 15.95, 11.41, 26.73, and 5.78. The results showed that total annual average OBB emissions in Karnataka for 2000–2022 in Gg were SO2 (6.67), NOx (9.48), NH3(9.80), CO (670.12), OC (59.78), BC (5.09), CO2 (11071 .11), CH4(33.68), PM10(84.29), PM2.5(81.08), NMVOC (74.13), and NO2 (4.80) respectively. The districts of Kalburgi, Raichur, Bagalkot, Uttara Kannada, and Shivamogga have the highest emissions from OBB in Karnataka from 2000 to 2022. The emission uncertainty results showed ±26.92, ±28.17, and ±30.27 % for the crop, grassland, and forest fires, respectively. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios, the CH4 emissions from forest, grassland, and crop fires are projected at 8823, 2.64, and 5262 metric tonnes by 2030 and 58046, 10, and 30700 metric tonnes by 2050, respectively. The developed high-resolution inventories are the most up-to-date surface emission datasets with hotspots in Karnataka from OBB emission. National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) and India’s Net-Zero Emission target by 2070, our high-resolution emission inventories and mitigation strategies may be helpful for air quality monitoring, health benefits analysis, and policy-making studies in Karnataka, India.