Mitigation Actions Research Articles

Experimental evidence supports the ability of spotted lanternfly to hitchhike on vehicle exteriors as a mechanism for anthropogenic dispersal.

Historically, anecdotal observations support the likelihood of human-assisted invasive insect dispersal to new environments. No previous studies have investigated the ability of insects to remain attached to moving vehicles; however, such information is critical for prioritizing research, mitigation activities and understanding anthropogenic effects on biotic communities. Lycorma delicatula (White), spotted lanternfly (SLF), an invasive insect whose range is currently expanding throughout the United States, is commonly observed in urban settings and near transportation hubs. We developed a novel method to test SLF's ability to remain on vehicle surfaces including bonnet, nose wing, windscreen, wipers and scuttle panel using laminar wind flow from 0 to 100 ± 5 km h-1. We found all mobile life stages (nymphs and adults) could remain on the vehicle up to 100 km h-1. First instar nymphs and early season adults remained attached at significantly higher wind speeds than other stages. A brief acclimatization period prior to wind delivery increased attachment duration for all life stages except later season adults. The importance of outliers in the success of invasive species is well established. Given these results, any hitchhiking SLF could potentially establish incipient populations. This methodology will be beneficial for exploring human-assisted dispersal of other invasive arthropods.

Winter Storm Severity Index in Alaska: Understanding the Usefulness for Impact-Based Winter Weather Severity Forecast Information

Abstract There is growing interest in impact-based decision support services to address complex decision-making, especially for winter storm forecasting. Understanding users’ needs for winter storm forecast information is necessary to make such impact-based winter forecasts relevant and useful to the diverse regions affected. A mixed-method social science research study investigated extending the winter storm severity index (WSSI) [operational for the contiguous United States (CONUS)] to Alaska, with consideration of the distinct needs of Alaskan stakeholders and the Alaskan climate. Data availability differences suggest the need for an Alaska-specific WSSI, calling for user feedback to inform the direction of product modifications. Focus groups and surveys in six regions of Alaska provided information on how the WSSI components, definitions, and categorization of impacts could align with stakeholder expectations and led to recommendations for the Weather Prediction Center to consider in developing the WSSI Alaska product. Overall, wind (strength and direction) and precipitation are key components to include. Air travel is a critical concern requiring wind and visibility information, while road travel is less emphasized (contrasting with CONUS needs). Special Weather Statements and Winter Storm Warnings are highly valued, and storm trajectory and transition (between precipitation types) information are the important contexts for decision-makers. Alaska is accustomed to and prepared for winter impacts but being able to understand how components (wind, snow, and ice) contribute to overall impact enhances the ability to respond and mitigate damage effectively. The WSSI adapted for Alaska can help address regional forecast needs, particularly valuable as the climate changes and typical winter conditions become more variable. Significance Statement Impact-based support services can assist decision-makers in prioritizing preparedness and mitigation actions related to winter storm events. The winter storm severity index adapted for specific considerations in Alaska (such as including wind and visibility components) can extend winter weather impact-based forecasting’s utility. Additionally, lessons learned from the process of adapting a national product to specific regional needs may inform best practices for gathering stakeholder input and feedback.

Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios for avoiding increments of global warming

Urban areas have key roles in climate mitigation, including increasing renewable energy penetration in smart energy systems. The potential of urban areas in limiting global warming, however, is not quantified. This research work develops a new framework to analyse urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios with coupling to the transient climate response to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Two new parameters that quantify contributions to and avoidance of increments of global warming from urban areas are formulated and applied to twelve scenario combinations. The results for 465 urban areas indicate that a green-growth scenario with lower ambition in reducing urban emissions can lead up to a 0.13 °C additional increment of global warming in 2050 based on the best estimate of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Those of the most ambitious urban emissions scenario with green-growth and renewable energy are limited to 0.06 °C. When combined with the most ambitious land use efficiency scenario for 135 urban areas, it is possible to avoid more than double or 2.09 times additional increments of global warming in comparison to other integrated urban scenarios. The mean and 5–95th percentile range of the results are compared based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Informing on the urgency to ensure ambitious mitigation action in urban areas can support a climate future that remains within critical thresholds and tipping elements of the planet.

Impact Chain Analysis on Determining the Vulnerability Levels of Women to Climate Hazards and Risks: A Case Study of Türkiye

The case studies in the literature and the reports prepared by international organizations indicate that the vulnerability level of women to climate change-related hazards and risks is considerably high. In addition, it is mentioned in the literature that women’s participation in both the development and implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions to be taken against climate change will yield more positive outcomes. It is seen when considered the impact chain analyses described in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that there is still a need to propose methods and data sets which involve the transformation of the required parameters to be used for the determination of women’s vulnerability levels to climate change under specific factor groups into data and the determination of the vulnerability levels through concrete indicators by weighting these data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose parameters, data, and data sources that can be used in the impact chain analysis of women’s vulnerability in Turkey using the methodology developed to analyse the vulnerability of various sectors and themes to climate change. For this purpose, a methodology combining the PESTEL technique, initially used in the external environmental analysis of private sector companies, with the impact chain analysis conducted within the scope of climate change to determine the parameter classes in the most comprehensive way and a data set is described to contribute to the modelling studies that provide concrete and comparative insights into the women’s vulnerability to climate change.

The role of knowledge, attitude, and emotions in Spanish pre-service teachers’ willingness to engage in climate change education

ABSTRACT This paper provides insights into the indirect effect of subject matter knowledge on the pre-service teachers’ mitigation action of willingness to include climate change in their future teaching practices. Mediation analysis was conducted to assess the mediating role of emotions and attitudes on direct and indirect mitigation actions with a nationally representative sample of 889 pre-service teachers from Spain. The results show that subject matter knowledge has an indirect effect on pre-service teachers’ willingness to teach and is mediated by emotions and attitudes. Mediation analysis also revealed a relationship between emotional engagement and mitigation actions: students who experience stronger emotions are more likely to take direct and indirect mitigation action, but a more environmentally friendly lifestyle (direct mitigation) is not associated with willingness to engage in climate change education (indirect mitigation). We conclude that educators should consider emotions and attitudes when implementing climate change education.

MITIGASI RESIKO RANTAI PASOK PADA PASOKAN PENGGUNAAN BBM DI DEPO LOKOMOTIF PT KAI SIDOTOPO

Risk is a factor that always exists in every sector of life incluidng suppky usage in PT KAI. Based on the results and discussion of this research, the conclusion is that there are 20 risk agents and 20 risk events, of which 4 priority risk agents are lack of control over fuel hoses (A13), inaccurate measuring instruments (A7), Over limit Policy (A2) and lack of clear and measurable coordination (A1). Second, there are 6 mitigation actions, namely Modification of the queue and filling system (P1), Improvement of the train supervision and monitoring system with (P2), Training and coordination staff ( P3), Training of machinists and system machinists and managemen update (P4), Modification of fuel control data with by internet (P5), and Maintenance engginer properly and scheduled ( P6). Where the most effective solutions based on HOR Phase 2 are respectively PA 2, PA 3, PA 4 PA 6, PA 5 and PA 1. Meanwhile based on AHP they are PA 2, PA 1, PA 5, PA 6, PA 3 and PA 4. So the alternative solutions developed are PA 2, PA 3 and PA 4.

The Missing Piece of the Puzzle: How Different Water-related Public Concerns Contribute to Water Governance in China.

Public participation is crucial to improving the performance of water governance systems, especially in a governance model dominated by a top-down hierarchical structure. Public concerns, as a vital form of public participation, have been acknowledged as an essential component in contributing to water governance. However, few studies explore the varying effects of diverse public concerns in leading to different water governance outcomes. This study addresses this gap by exploring the direct and indirect effects of water-related public concerns on water pollution control and governments' pollution mitigating actions, using citizens' water-related posts crawled from China's social media. Results show that public water-related concerns contribute to water governance both through its direct effects on reducing water pollution and indirect effects by promoting policy actions. Specifically, the concerns related to water pollution hazards, water pollution monitoring, prevention products, and water pollution control measures have more positive impacts on water pollution reduction compared to other types of concern. Meanwhile, public concerns demonstrate stronger effects in triggering economic-related and infrastructure-related water pollution mitigation actions. This study provides nuanced insights to understand the role of public participation in improving water governance, the findings of which are insightful to enhance accountability of water governance systems through a bottom-up approach.

Evaluation of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Developed Vs Developing Countries

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyzing the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies in developed vs developing countries. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The evaluation of climate change mitigation policies reveals distinct findings between developed and developing countries. Developed nations typically show higher levels of policy implementation and technological adoption aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in measurable declines in carbon intensity across sectors. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Environmental kuznets curve (EKC) theory, diffusion of innovations theory & dependency theory may be used to anchor future studies on evaluation of climate change mitigation policies in developed vs developing countries. Prioritizing capacity building initiatives and technology transfer programs in developing countries supports practical implementation of climate mitigation strategies. Advocating for equitable climate finance mechanisms ensures adequate funding and financial incentives for developing countries to implement climate mitigation actions.

A global surface CO2 flux dataset (2015–2022) inferred from OCO-2 retrievals using the GONGGA inversion system

Abstract. Accurate assessment of the size and distribution of carbon dioxide (CO2) sources and sinks is important for efforts to understand the carbon cycle and support policy decisions regarding climate mitigation actions. Satellite retrievals of the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) have been widely used to infer spatial and temporal variations in carbon fluxes through atmospheric inversion techniques. In this study, we present a global spatially resolved terrestrial and ocean carbon flux dataset for 2015–2022. The dataset was generated by the Global ObservatioN-based system for monitoring Greenhouse GAses (GONGGA) atmospheric inversion system through the assimilation of Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals. We describe the carbon budget, interannual variability, and seasonal cycle for the global scale and a set of TransCom regions. The 8-year mean net biosphere exchange and ocean carbon fluxes were −2.22 ± 0.75 and −2.32 ± 0.18 Pg C yr−1, absorbing approximately 23 % and 24 % of contemporary fossil fuel CO2 emissions, respectively. The annual mean global atmospheric CO2 growth rate was 5.17 ± 0.68 Pg C yr−1, which is consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) measurement (5.24 ± 0.59 Pg C yr−1). Europe has the largest terrestrial sink among the 11 TransCom land regions, followed by Boreal Asia and Temperate Asia. The dataset was evaluated by comparing posterior CO2 simulations with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) retrievals as well as Observation Package (ObsPack) surface flask observations and aircraft observations. Compared with CO2 simulations using the unoptimized fluxes, the bias and root mean square error (RMSE) in posterior CO2 simulations were largely reduced across the full range of locations, confirming that the GONGGA system improves the estimates of spatial and temporal variations in carbon fluxes by assimilating OCO-2 XCO2 data. This dataset will improve the broader understanding of global carbon cycle dynamics and their response to climate change. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8368846 (Jin et al., 2023a).

Socioeconomic distributional impacts of evaluating flood mitigation activities using equity-weighted benefit-cost analysis

As the global impact of climate change intensifies, there is an urgent need for equitable and efficient climate adaptation policies. Traditional approaches for allocating public resources for climate adaptation that are based on economic benefit-cost analysis often overlook the resulting distributional inequalities. In this study, we apply equity weightings to mitigate the distributional inequalities in two key building and household level adaptation strategies under changing coastal flood hazards: property buyouts and building retrofit in New York City (NYC). Under a mid-range emissions scenario, we find that unweighted benefit cost ratios applied to residential buildings are higher for richer and non-disadvantaged census tracts in NYC. The integration of income-based equity weights alters this correlation effect, which has the potential to shift investment in mitigation towards poorer and disadvantaged census tracts. This alteration is sensitive to the value of elasticity of marginal utility, the key parameter used to calculate the equity weight. Higher values of elasticity of marginal utility increase benefits for disadvantaged communities but reduce the overall economic benefits from investments, highlighting the trade-offs in incorporating equity into adaptation planning.

Beyond target chemicals: updating the NORMAN prioritisation scheme to support the EU chemicals strategy with semi-quantitative suspect/non-target screening data

BackgroundPrioritisation of chemical pollutants is a major challenge for environmental managers and decision-makers alike, which is essential to help focus the limited resources available for monitoring and mitigation actions on the most relevant chemicals. This study extends the original NORMAN prioritisation scheme beyond target chemicals, presenting the integration of semi-quantitative data from retrospective suspect screening and expansion of existing exposure and risk indicators. The scheme utilises data retrieved automatically from the NORMAN Database System (NDS), including candidate substances for prioritisation, target and suspect screening data, ecotoxicological effect data, physico-chemical data and other properties. Two complementary workflows using target and suspect screening monitoring data are applied to first group the substances into six action categories and then rank the substances using exposure, hazard and risk indicators. The results from the ‘target’ and ‘suspect screening’ workflows can then be combined as multiple lines of evidence to support decision-making on regulatory and research actions.ResultsAs a proof-of-concept, the new scheme was applied to a combined dataset of target and suspect screening data. To this end, > 65,000 substances on the NDS, of which 2579 substances supported by target wastewater monitoring data, were retrospectively screened in 84 effluent wastewater samples, totalling > 11 million data points. The final prioritisation results identified 677 substances as high priority for further actions, 7455 as medium priority and 326 with potentially lower priority for actions. Among the remaining substances, ca. 37,000 substances should be considered of medium priority with uncertainty, while it was not possible to conclude for 19,000 substances due to insufficient information from target monitoring and uncertainty in the identification from suspect screening. A high degree of agreement was observed between the categories assigned via target analysis and suspect screening-based prioritisation. Suspect screening was a valuable complementary approach to target analysis, helping to prioritise thousands of substances that are insufficiently investigated in current monitoring programmes.ConclusionsThis updated prioritisation workflow responds to the increasing use of suspect screening techniques. It can be adapted to different environmental compartments and can support regulatory obligations, including the identification of specific pollutants in river basins and the marine environments, as well as the confirmation of environmental occurrence levels predicted by modelling tools.Graphical

Exploring support and opposition to regulatory approaches for wildfire risk management: requirements, voluntary actions, and tailored local action

AbstractFormal requirements of wildfire mitigation on private properties are increasingly being considered as one avenue for “scaling up” wildfire management and voluntary mitigation actions to landscape scales. Likewise, enduring segments of wildfire research suggest that residents’ perceptions about potential wildfire risk sources in their landscape, including ignition sources, are critical considerations related to support for mitigation efforts such as formal requirements or cross-boundary fuel reduction initiatives. The research presented in this article utilized mixed-method, residential surveys of property owners in Kittitas County, Washington, to explore influences on support for wildfire mitigation requirements and performance of voluntary mitigations on private lands. We found a high degree of variability in support for regulatory approaches, including relatively low levels of support for building or retrofitting regulations and a moderate level of support for vegetation management regulations. Perceptions about wildfire risk sources or public land management, past performance of wildfire mitigation actions, and support for shared, locally managed mitigations all correlated with support for differing regulatory approaches. We also found that performance of voluntary mitigation actions correlated with increasing wildfire program participation, differed among part-time or full- time residents, and were influenced by proximity to nearby property boundaries. Our results suggest that the most supported strategy in the study area may be the establishment of local, tax funded districts that encourage voluntary mitigation actions tailored to local circumstances. We conclude the paper by comparing our results to existing lessons from wildfire social science.

A Large Scale Study and Classification of VirusTotal Reports on Phishing and Malware URLs

VirusTotal (VT) is a widely used scanning service for researchers and practitioners to label malicious entities and predict new security threats. Unfortunately, it is little known to the end-users how VT URL scanners decide on the maliciousness of entities and the attack types they are involved in (e.g., phishing or malware-hosting websites). In this paper, we conduct a systematic comparative study on VT URL scanners' behavior for different attack types of malicious URLs, in terms of 1) detection specialties, 2) stability, 3) correlations between scanners, and 4) lead/lag behaviors. Our findings highlight that the VT scanners commonly disagree with each other on their detection and attack type classification, leading to challenges in ascertaining the maliciousness of a URL and taking prompt mitigation actions according to different attack types. This motivates us to present a new highly accurate classifier that helps correctly identify the attack types of malicious URLs at the early stage. This in turn assists practitioners in performing better threat aggregation and choosing proper mitigation actions for different attack types.

Analyzing single-action bias in dynamic climate change environments: insights from feedback and probability

“Single action bias” (SAB) characterizes individuals’ inclination to undertake only one preventive measure against climate change, disregarding potentially more effective alternatives. This bias poses a significant obstacle to comprehensive responses to climate change. While dynamic climate simulators have been developed to raise awareness of climate change and encourage pro-environmental behaviors, the prevalence of SAB within these tools remains unexplored. This study introduces the “Single Action Bias-Interactive Climate Change Simulator” (SAB-ICCS) to investigate SAB’s manifestation in dynamic scenarios. Utilizing the framework of the Interactive Climate Change Simulator (ICCS), known for its efficacy in fostering pro-environmental actions, the SAB-ICCS explores how feedback, probability, and their interplay influence SAB prevalence during climate mitigation and adaptation decision-making. A total of 160 participants were randomly assigned to four conditions in the SAB-ICCS, varying feedback presence and climate change probability. Participants engaged in climate mitigation and adaptation actions, simulating the repercussions of climate change through investment choices in climate mitigation and adaptation (consisting of three insurance plans). The study’s dependent variables were the participants’ actions towards climate mitigation and adaptation. Results revealed a substantial prevalence of single action proportion (42%) compared to other action proportions. Furthermore, the total monetary investment was significantly higher when taking optimal actions than when exhibiting SAB. Moreover, a higher probability of climate change resulted in a higher prevalence of SAB (49%) than a lower probability (35%). Interestingly, feedback availability did not significantly impact SAB prevalence. Though both feedback and the probability of climate change influenced how participants exhibited SAB, and the absolute monetary investment was also significantly affected. This research enhances our comprehension of SAB within educational climate simulations, which is vital for informing climate education and policymaking. It offers insights for policymakers and educators to develop interventions addressing SAB, enhancing climate action strategies by understanding probability and feedback influences.

Three years of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes from different sheepfolds in a semiarid steppe region, China

To better assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock folds in semi-arid steppe zones and reduce uncertainties in regional and national GHG emission inventories, we measured the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from sheepfolds under contrasting management regimes (i.e., summer sheepfolds under continuous and rotational grazing strategies and the winter sheepfold) for 3 consecutive years. Our results showed that these GHG fluxes had high intra-annual and interannual variations, emphasizing the importance of multi-year measurement for achieving temporally representative annual budgets. Sheep presence and temperature appeared to be the key factors driving CH4, CO2 and N2O fluxes from sheepfolds, e.g., higher GHG emissions usually occurred in seasons with sheep presence. However, the sheepfold type exerted a distinct influence on the temperature sensitivity of GHG fluxes, i.e., the Q10 values for GHG fluxes were generally higher in summer sheepfolds than in winter sheepfold. The annual CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions for the 3 sheepfolds were estimated to be 1.5–16.5 kg C ha−1 yr−1 (or 1.9–2.6 g C yr−1sheep−1), 8.6–16.0 t C ha−1 yr−1 (or 5.1–6.6 kg C yr−1sheep−1) and 28.3–41.9 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (or 19.0–26.8 g N yr−1sheep−1), respectively. Averaging across the 3 years, the annual net GHG emissions (CH4 + CO2 + N2O) for all sheepfolds ranged from 47 to 71 t CO2-eq ha−1 yr−1 (or 27–36 kg CO2-eq yr−1 sheep−1), of which CO2 and N2O emissions contributed the most; moreover, the annual net GHG emissions had no significant differences between sheepfold types or grazing strategies. Given that local steppe soils have a lower magnitude of soil respiration (CO2) and N2O emissions and are also net sink for atmospheric CH4, the sheepfold sites in this region are undoubtedly one of the significant hotspots for GHG emissions and could be key areas to focus mitigation action.

Environmental DNA for the surveillance of biosecurity threats in Mediterranean lagoons

Invasive species that outcompete endemic ones and toxic harmful algae that cause algal blooms threaten marine resources like fisheries, aquaculture, and even tourism. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding can help as a method for early alert. In this study, we have analyzed communities inhabiting six lagoons within the Gulf of Lion (northwest Mediterranean Sea) with spatial protection as RAMSAR and Natura 2000 sites. Employing the COI gene as the only metabarcode, we found 15 genera that have caused recognized algal bloom outbreaks in the studied lagoons since 2000. In addition, seven alien invasive species that can pose risks to the rich marine resources of the zone and lagoons were also found. The results found from eDNA are consistent with events of toxic algae blooms before and after the sampling moment and with reported occurrences of the invasive species in nearby Mediterranean areas. Multivariate multiple analysis showed the importance of anthropic pressure in the abundance of these nuisance species. Mitigation actions and routine eDNA metabarcoding in zones of special interest like these fragile French Mediterranean lagoons are recommended for early alert of nuisance species in order to plan timely management actions.

Private Woodland Owner Perceptions of Threat and Efficacy Shape Management Responses for Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract Private woodland owners (PWOs) face an increasing number of considerations for climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in their forest management. Evidence suggests there may be a disconnect between PWOs’ climate change perceptions and behaviors, which can limit implementation. We conducted seventeen semistructured interviews in Maine to develop a typological framework of PWOs based on their perceptions of climate-induced threats and efficacy. Our results produced three types of PWOs: the steady-as-they-go landowner (low perceived threat), the science-driven landowner (high perceived threat; high efficacy), and the seeking-support landowner (high perceived threat; low efficacy). Although all three types of PWOs regularly implemented resistance and resilience practices, their attitudes toward transition practices (i.e., assisted migration) diverged based on their perceptions of threat and efficacy. This typological framework can be used when targeting communications to PWOs regarding the overlap between climate adaptive management and traditional best management practices. Study Implications: PWOs in our study recognized climate-related impacts while implementing diverse forest management practices to meet both climate-related and non-climate-related objectives. The divergent attitudes toward transition practices exhibited by our three PWO types highlight the notion that adaptive practices can be both intentional and incidental. Our findings suggest that outreach efforts should understand PWO perceptions of climate change threats and their feelings of efficacy in responding to such threats. When combined with knowledge about the overlap between traditional best management practices and new climate-adaptive strategies, extension and outreach efforts can tailor their messaging to fit the appropriate audience.

Suspicious behaviour detection in multilayer social networks using PF-KMA and SS-GAE techniques

Multilayer Social networks are an important part of human life to interact on different networks at the same time. Due to the openness of such networks, they become a platform for spammers to spread malicious behaviors. Hence, there is an urgent need for effective detection of malicious behaviors; thereby, enabling the networks to take mitigation actions to decrease the possibility to reward such activities. Detection of suspicious behaviors in previous works is challenging due to the problems of community detection, the large amount of feature corruption, and memory requirements. Thus, to deal with such problems, in this paper, an efficient clustering-based detection of malicious users in multilayer social networks is proposed. Initially, the input dataset is pre-processed and used for Exponential Distribution based Erdős–Rényi based graph construction. From the graph structure, two types of data, such as user representations and graph features are extracted for graph encoding using the Soft Sign activated Graph Auto Encoder model. Then, the decoding is done to predict the information diffusion level, thereby, ranking the users using the Laplace Regularization technique. Then, the ranked users are clustered into different groups using the Pareto Front based K-Means Clustering Algorithm technique. Finally, the experimental results were analyzed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model to detect malicious users in multilayer social networks.

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Abstract. In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.

Tinkering While the Arctic Marine Environment Totters: Governance and the Triple Polar Crisis$

After describing how the marine environment is tottering in the face of the triple environmental crisis, this article explores the limited governance progressions at the global and regional levels in addressing the threats of pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss in the especially vulnerable Arctic. For pollution, key limitations include slow and arduous processes to add chemicals for control under the Stockholm and Rotterdam Conventions and reliance at the regional level on a fragmented array of pollution studies and projects but without specific region-wide legally binding pollution standards. For climate change, the world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets which is especially problematic for the Arctic cryosphere while the Arctic Council has largely been limited to providing general statements of concern and aspirational calls for enhanced climate mitigation and adaptation actions. For marine biodiversity losses, a pan-Arctic network of marine protected areas has yet to be developed and various implementation challenges surround the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean including the need to ensure adequate financial, human resource and technical support. The paper concludes by highlighting some promising future governance directions. They include: the conclusion of a global treaty on plastic pollution; implementation of a new Global Framework on Chemicals – For a Planet Free of Harm from Chemicals and Waste; expected further clarifications from international tribunals on State responsibilities to address climate change; and regional implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the new agreement under the UN Convention on Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction.