Mississippi River Basin Research Articles

The LTAR Croplands Common Experiment at Upper Mississippi River Basin-Ames.

Agricultural systems evolve from the interactions of climate, crops, soils, management practices (e.g., tillage, cover crops, nutrient management), and economic risks and rewards. Alternatives to the corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] (C-S) cropping systems that dominate in the US Midwest may provide more sustainable use of resources, reduce the documented environmental impacts of current C-S systems, and improve production efficiency and ecosystem services. Innovative management practices are needed to offer producers options to increase farm resilience to variable weather conditions and offset negative environmental impacts. In response to this need, the Upper Mississippi River Basin Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network site at Ames, IA, established a cropland experiment in 2016 to investigate an alternative crop management system that includes reduced tillage, cover crops, and right source, right rate, right time, and right place (4R) nitrogen (N) management. The experimental site is located on the Iowa State University Kelley Research Farm in Boone County, IA. Crop, soil, air, and tile drainage water measurements are made throughout the year using published methods for each agronomic and environmental metric. Our goal is to provide quantitative information to farmers, consultants, agribusiness partners, and state and federal agencies to help guide decisions on the effective use of alternative management practices. Future changes in experimental treatments will adopt a knowledge co-production approach whereby researchers and stakeholders will work collaboratively to identify problems, implement research protocols, and interpret results.

Length–weight relationships for 14 cypriniform freshwater fish species (Actinopterygii) from the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Length–weight relationships for 14 cypriniform freshwater fish species (Actinopterygii) from the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Water erosion processes: Mechanisms, impact, and management strategies

This study rigorously explores water erosion, a critical environmental challenge diminishing land productivity and ecosystem stability worldwide. Addressing a notable gap in comprehensive, region-specific erosion assessments, this research underscores innovative strategies integrating traditional practices with modern technologies. It assesses the interplay between splash erosion, surface runoff, and subsurface flow, which collectively drive significant landscape changes and soil fertility loss. The influence of key factors such as rainfall intensity, soil type, topography, and vegetation is analyzed through case studies from the Loess Plateau, the Mississippi River Basin, and the Ethiopian Highlands, illustrating varying erosion dynamics. Importantly, this work evaluates the implementation of nanotechnology and biotechnological advances in soil stabilization, supported by robust policy frameworks, and demonstrates these technologies in context, ensuring relevancy to the observed erosion processes. By combining empirical research with cutting-edge science and active community participation, this paper champions adaptive and inclusive strategies to effectively manage water erosion, aiming to bolster environmental sustainability and resilience globally.

Benefits and Pitfalls of GRACE and Streamflow Assimilation for Improving the Streamflow Simulations of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model

AbstractDistribution and change of freshwater resources is often simulated with global hydrological models. However, owing to process representation limitations and forcing data uncertainties, these model simulations have shortcomings. Combining them with observations via data assimilation, for example, with data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission or streamflow measured at in situ stations is considered to improve the realism of the simulations. We assimilate gridded total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) over the Mississippi River basin via an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Our results agree with previous studies where assimilating GRACE observations nudges TWSA simulations closer to the observations, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 21% compared to an uncalibrated model. However, simulations of streamflow show degeneration at more than 90% of all gauge stations for metrics such as RMSE and correlations; only the annual phase of simulated streamflow improves at half the stations. Therefore, for the first time, we instead assimilated streamflow observations into the WGHM, which improved simulated streamflow at up to nearly 80% of the stations, with normalized RMSE showing improvements of up to 0.1, while TWSA was well‐simulated in all metrics. Combining both approaches, that is, jointly assimilating GRACE‐derived TWSA and streamflow observations, leads to a trade‐off between a good fit of both variables albeit skewed to the GRACE observations. Overall, we speculate that our findings point to limitations of process representation in WGHM hindering consistent flux simulation from the storage history, especially in dry regions.

A novel interpretable hybrid model for multi-step ahead dissolved oxygen forecasting in the Mississippi River basin

A novel interpretable hybrid model for multi-step ahead dissolved oxygen forecasting in the Mississippi River basin

The LTAR Cropland Common Experiment at Upper Mississippi River Basin-Morris.

The Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) watershed is hydrologically complex, with a notable temperature and precipitation gradient across four locations: Ames, IA; Platteville, WI; Morris, MN; and St. Paul, MN. Each location established LTAR Croplands Common Experiment (CCE) scenarios to fit local climatic and cultural practices. This paper describes the UMRB-Morris location, which was established in 2016 and is the most northern of the sites and contributes to the major watersheds of the UMRB and the Red River of the North. Both on-farm and plot-scale studies are included. The prevailing system is a corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max L.) rotation with annual deep ripping tillage. The signature alternative system is alternative 1, which is a shallow strip-till in a corn-soybean rotation. A second alternative system includes shallow tillage/rotational no-tillage in a corn-soybean-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) with winter oilseed and cover crops, and it is considered a test ground for future alternative systems. On-farm fields are equipped with eddy covariance towers and include 16 geo-referenced soil core sampling sites for incremental samplings. Each field is sampled annually for crop yield and management data are recorded. Plot-scale versions of the treatments are managed at the Swan Lake Research Farm. On-farm and plot-scale fields are instrumented with Phenocams to capture continuous photographic records. The CCE at UMRB-Morris aims to integrate soil, crop, weather data, and image classification to assess benefits and challenges across different management strategies.

Wetland-mediated nitrate reductions attenuate downstream: Insights from a modeling study

Connections between agricultural runoff and excess nitrogen in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are well-documented, as is the potential role of constructed wetlands in mitigating this surplus nitrogen. However, limited knowledge exists about the “best” placement of these wetlands for downstream nitrogen reductions within a whole watershed context as well as how far downstream these benefits are realized. In this study, we simulate the cumulative impacts of diverse wetland restoration scenarios on downstream nitrate reductions in different subbasins of the Raccoon River Watershed, Iowa, USA, and spatially trace their relative effects downstream. Our simulated results underscore previous work demonstrating that the total area of wetlands and the wetland-catchment-to-wetland area ratio are both significant factors for determining the nitrate load reduction benefits of wetlands at subbasin scales. Simulated wetland conservation scenarios resulted in nitrate load decreases ranging from 7.5 to 43.2% of our baseline model loads. However, we found these wetland-mediated nitrate reduction benefits are quickly attenuated downstream: load reductions were <1% at the watershed outlet across all model scenarios, despite the magnitude of the subbasin-scale nitrate decreases. The relatively rapid attenuation of wetland effects is largely due to downstream nitrate load contributions from untreated subbasins. However, higher subbasin-scale nitrate reductions from wetland-based conservation practices resulted in longer downstream distances prior to attenuation. This study highlights the importance of considering the spatial location of constructed or restored wetlands relative to the area within the watershed where nitrogen reductions are most needed.

Spatial and temporal analysis and trends of extreme precipitation over the Mississippi River Basin, USA during 1988–2017

Study regionMississippi River Basin. Study focusUsing daily precipitation records of 769 meteorological stations over the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the spatial-temporal variability and trend of nine extreme precipitation indices were estimated and statistically assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Factors likely to influence the spatial pattern and trends of precipitation extremes indices were also checked. New hydrological insights for the regionThe spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation indices exhibits a southeast to Northwest dipole, with the maximum values recorded over the southeastern part of the domain (exception being for Consecutive Dry Days, CDD which shows otherwise) driven by the southerly moisture transport toward the southeast. The spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation is controlled by the topography. The results also show that, on average, almost all the indices (except CDD) exhibit an increasing trend. The total wet day precipitation exhibits a significant increasing trend. Spatially, most of the significant increasing (decreasing) trends of the extreme's precipitation-except CDD- are located over the Upper (South) MRB where there is a significant sign toward cooling (warming) conditions. This supports the view that changing climate towards warming (cooling) conditions is significantly affecting precipitations extremes over the MRB. The relationships between large-scale teleconnections and extreme precipitation show that Pacific North America significantly increases (decreases) frequency and intensity indices over the Northwest (southeast) MRB, whereas the Pacific Decadal Oscillation does increase the frequency and intensity indices over the southeast. El Niño Southern Oscillation significantly increases the frequency and intensity indices over the entire MRB, with consequences to infrastructure failures, increasing vulnerable populations, risk zones and relocations populations.

Phosphorus distributions in alluvial soils of the Lower Mississippi River Basin: A case of dual legacies.

Legacies can become intertwined, none more so than the body of work of Dr. Andrew Sharpley examining agricultural nutrient delivery to waterbodies and the phosphorus (P) accumulation in agricultural soils, or "legacy P." Although Sharpley's work focused on the anthropogenic influence on soil P, our study suggests soils of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) represent a natural legacy with moderate levels of available P resulting from minimal anthropogenic input. In 2019, we collected surface (0-5cm) soil samples from four regionally dominant soil series in either cropland or forested land uses, spanning 76 locations within the MAP. Soil chemical and physical properties were measured utilizing a suite of extractions and texture analysis to correlate properties with soil P values. Total soil P did not vary between land uses. Mehlich-3 extractable P was slightly higher in cropland soils due to higher concentrations in Forestdale and Sharkey soils. Dundee, Forestdale, and Sharkey cropland soils showed significant associations between Mehlich-3-extractable iron (Fe) and P. Ratios of total carbon (TC) to total nitrogen (C:N) and TC to P (C:P) were consistent across all sampled soil series but differed between forest and cropland soils. These ratios are critical for establishing baseline soil nutrient values in simulation models and can be used to improve water quality model simulations that help guide P management in the MAP. As Sharpley routinely demonstrated, understanding sources of P is critical for developing an appropriate management strategy. This study provides critical knowledge on soil P dynamics in the MAP region.

The LTAR Integrated Common Experiment at Upper Mississippi River Basin-Platteville.

Alternative agronomic practices are needed to address the various climatic, agronomic, edaphic, and water quality related challenges faced by the dairy farmers of the Driftless Area (DA) in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). These practices should be innovative in nature, inclusive of regional stakeholders, and sustainable to meet the future food and climate related challenges of Wisconsin agriculture. Here, we outline our Integrated (grazing and cropland) Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Common Experiment at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville Pioneer Farm (UW-P PF) in the UMRB and describe our collaboration in this USDA network. In this field-scale experiment, we are comparing the conventional dairy production system common to this region (i.e., corn-on-corn [Zea mays L.] for 4 years, followed by alfalfa [Medicago sativa L.] for 3 years, with no cover crops) with two alternative dairy production systems-(1) soil health management with no-till, cover crops, and application of a novel manure-based nutrient-rich stable product, and (2) management intensive grazing-and rotational grazing on pastures established with diverse forage-legume mix. Meteorological, edaphic, hydrologic, and agronomic data are collected and analyzed at regular frequencies. Going forward, the experiment will continue as a form of stakeholder-driven adaptive research and receive evaluation on a regular basis to determine whether any changes are required to address the "real-world" challenges faced by the farmers in the Midwest.

An integrated cyberinfrastructure system for water quality resources in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

ABSTRACT The Upper Mississippi Information System (UMIS) is a cyberinfrastructure framework designed to support large-scale real-time water-quality data integration, analysis, and visualization for the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). UMIS is intended to directly address three of the Grand Challenges for Engineering including (1) understanding access to clean drinking water, (2) management of the nitrogen cycle, and (3) engineering the tools of scientific discovery. The UMIS is designed to provide significant immediate and long-term impacts including a central platform for data access, integration, discovery, and adoption of cyberinfrastructure tools and services. The UMIS demonstrates that public data aggregators and central repositories can provide important services to anyone interested in water-quality research or education. In addition, working across multiple scales (e.g., state, region, county, or watershed) allows researchers to understand broad and narrow effects of water-quality strategies. Exploration of data across these scales encourages the development of problem-based research questions that can eventually provide feedback to public policies.

The LTAR Cropland Common Experiment at Central Mississippi River Basin.

The Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) Common Experiment, with its marginal soils and southern Corn Belt climate, is an ideal location for evaluating progress toward environmental, productivity, and climatic adaptation goals. Sustainable production with conventional row-crop systems is more challenging than in the upper Corn Belt, making evaluation and adoption of alternative farming practices crucial. This Common Experiment has a hydrologically restrictive layer causing reduced plant available water capacity in the root zone. The CMRB site joined the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network in 2011 with the Cropland Common Experiment established in 2015. The Common Experiment contrasts prevailing and alternative practices at plot and field scale. Improvement of the soil ecosystem is key, as it underpins other objectives, including reduced nutrient losses, increased soil water holding capacity, and yield stability.

Improving hydrological modeling to close the gap between elevated CO2 concentration and crop response: Implications for water resources

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) affect crop growth and the associated hydrological cycle through physiological forcing, which is mainly regulated by reducing stomatal conductance (gs) and increasing leaf area index (LAI). However, reduced gs and increased LAI can affect crop water consumption, and the overall effects need to be quantified under elevated [CO2]. Here we develop a SWAT-gs-LAI model by incorporating a nonlinear gs-CO2 equation and a missing LAI-CO2 relationship to investigate the responses of water consumption of grain maize, maize yield, and losses of water and soil to elevated [CO2] in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB; 492,000 km2). Results exhibited enhanced maize yield with decreased water consumption for increases in [CO2] from 495 ppm to 825 ppm during the historical period (1985–2014). Elevated [CO2] promoted surface runoff but suppressed sediment loss as the predominant impact of LAI-CO2 leading to enhanced surface cover. A comprehensive analysis of future climate change showed increased maize water consumption in comparison to the historical period, driven by the more pronounced effects of overall climate change rather than solely elevated [CO2]. Generally, future climate change promoted maize yield in most regions of the UMRB for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Surface runoff was shown to increase generally in the future with sediment loss increasing by an average of 0.39, 0.42, and 0.66 ton ha-1 for SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. This was due to negative climatic change effects largely surpassing the positive effect of elevated [CO2], particularly in zones near the middle and lower stream. Our results underscore the crucial role of employing a physically-based model to represent crop physiological processes under elevated [CO2] conditions, improving the reliability of predictions related to crop growth and the hydrological cycle.

Use of otolith microchemistry to determine natal origin for Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix in the lower Mississippi River basin

Silver Carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) populations have established and expanded throughout the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB). Information pertaining to Silver Carp population mixing among rivers within the LMRB is lacking. Documented relations between Silver Carp otolith and river water barium (Ba) and strontium (Sr) microchemical signatures may enable estimation of origins of Silver Carp in the LMRB. Replicate water samples and otoliths from 308 Silver Carp were collected from the Cache, Arkansas, White, Yazoo, St. Francis, L’Anguille, and Mississippi rivers, and Merrisach Lake (situated along a canal connecting the lower reaches of the Arkansas and White rivers) within the LMRB. Water and carp otolith microchemical signatures exhibited consistent differences among water bodies. A classification and regression tree model exhibited 80% accuracy when assigning carp collected from the White, Arkansas, and Mississippi rivers based on fish-water microchemical signatures. Model accuracy decreased as smaller rivers were incorporated into models. Predicted natal origin based on otolith microchemical signatures suggested the White River (43%) and the lower Mississippi River (39%) were the likely origins for ~ 82% of the Silver Carp sampled. Despite the prevalence of adult Silver Carp within the Arkansas River system, fewer (18%) appeared to have originated there compared to the White and Mississippi rivers. Long-term water sampling and additional isotopic measurements may refine analyses to better determine the relative contributions of Silver Carp from the smaller river systems. Population mixing of Silver Carp among tributary rivers appears to be common within the LMRB, and removal efforts may benefit from evaluating the magnitude of fish movement and connectivity among rivers.

Enhancing resilience: Integrating future flood modeling and socio-economic analysis in the face of climate change impacts

As climate change intensifies, future floods will become more severe in some areas with geographic variation, necessitating that local and regional governments implement systems to provide information for climate adaptation, particularly for vulnerable populations. Therefore, we aimed to develop a methodology to identify areas that are at an increased risk from future floods and independently socially vulnerable. In this study, 100-year recurrence interval flood extents and depths were estimated using an ensemble of six independent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models for a past and future period under the highest-emissions climate scenario. The flood inundation results were related to social vulnerability for two selected study areas in the Mississippi River Basin. The range of flood extents and depths for both time periods were estimated, and differences were evaluated to determine the effects from climate change. To identify at-risk areas, the relationship between the spatial distribution of flood depths and vulnerability was then assessed. Finally, an analysis of the current and future damages on infrastructure from flooding on residential housing was performed to determine whether damages are correlated with higher vulnerability areas. Results show in every flooding scenario, flood extents and depths are increasing in the future compared with the past, ranging from an increase of 6 to 76 km2 in extent across both locations. A statistically significant relationship between spatial clusters of flooding and of vulnerability was found. The infrastructure analysis found that residential structures in the most vulnerable census tracts are 6 to 59 times more likely to experience moderate damage compared with the least vulnerable tracts depending on scenario. Overall, a framework was established to holistically understand the hydrologic and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and a methodology was developed to use for allocating resources at the local scale.

Streamflow in the United States: Characteristics, trends, regime shifts, and extremes

Long-term streamflow observations contain essential information for understanding hydrological changes and managing water resources. A continental-scale dataset or analysis of temporal streamflow change is still lacking across hydrologic gauges in the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we compiled 70 years of streamflow records from 1951 to 2021 at ~ 8000 hydrologic stations across the CONUS and characterized temporal trends, regime shifts, and extreme events using a Bayesian time series analysis algorithm. We found that the occurrences of sudden streamflow changes (e.g., regime shifts and extreme events) have been increasing with time across the CONUS. In addition, we derived 181 streamflow indicators that are valuable for hydrological and biological applications, such as the duration and frequency of high or low streamflow events. The Mississippi River Basin, especially the middle and lower parts, was a hot spot of high-frequency high-flow events. Overall, we anticipate the dataset generated here offers valuable information for understanding and quantifying changes in water resources across the CONUS.

Picky Eaters: Carbon Isotopic Evidence for the Uniform Bioavailability of Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter to a Model Marine Microorganism

AbstractDissolved organic matter (DOM) is a key component of the global carbon cycle, with rivers delivering significant amounts of DOM to oceans. Urbanization and agricultural land‐use alter the age and chemical composition of riverine DOM, which likely impact the downstream bioavailability of riverine DOM. Here, we use bioreactor incubations of a marine bacterium (Pseudoalteromonas sp. 3D05) to investigate DOM bioavailability from two distinct rivers: the Suwannee River (natural, non‐urbanized), and the Upper Mississippi River Basin (anthropogenically influenced). We measured rates of microbial CO2 production and radiocarbon ages (as Δ14C) to assess DOM remineralization. We observed nearly identical cell densities and degradation patterns for both riverine DOM incubations. Respired DOM Δ14C values were also similar and decreased over time indicative of preferential utilization of recently synthesized “modern” substrates. These findings reveal unexpected similarities in riverine DOM bioavailability, indicating similar short term biological reactivity despite large DOM compositional differences.

Competing Influences of Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Mississippi River Basin Hydroclimate Simulated Over the Last Millennium

AbstractThe Mississippi River is a vital economic corridor used for generating hydroelectric power, transporting agricultural products, and municipal and industrial water use. Communities, industries, and infrastructure along the Mississippi River face an uncertain future as it grows more susceptible to climate extremes. A key challenge is determining whether Mississippi river discharge will increase or decrease during the 21st century. Because the 20th century record is limited in time, paleoclimate data and model simulations provide enhanced understanding of the basin's hydroclimate response to external forcing. Here, we investigate how anthropogenic forcing in the 20th century shifts the statistics of river discharge compared to a Last Millennium (LM) baseline using simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. We present evidence that the 20th century exhibits wetter conditions (i.e., increased river discharge) over the basin compared to the pre‐industrial, and that land use/land cover changes have a significant control on the hydroclimatic response. Conversely, while precipitation is projected to increase in the 21st century, the basin is generally drier (i.e., decreased river discharge) compared to the 20th century. Overall, we find that changes in greenhouse gases contribute to a lower risk of extreme discharge and flooding in the basin during the 20th century, while land use changes contribute to increased risk of flooding. The additional climate information afforded by the LM simulations offers an improved understanding of what drove extreme flooding events in the past, which can help inform the development of future regional flood mitigation strategies.

Is snow drought a messenger for the upcoming severe drought period? A case study in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

The exacerbation of floods and the extension of droughts, attributed to climate change and human-induced factors, are posing a substantial risk to communities by causing water scarcity. The significance of safeguarding water resources and managing them is increasingly gaining prominence. Snow is an efficient source of water for recharging groundwater compared to rainfall. This is attributed to its gradual melting process and capacity to infiltrate the soil, thereby providing sustenance to the groundwater. Thus, snow drought can be considered a major contributing factor to the issue of water scarcity. The objective of this study was to investigate the evolution of snow drought over the period since 1980, as well as its impact on agricultural drought across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). An analysis is conducted for comparison between the spatial estimations of snow drought in the UMRB and two drought indicators, namely the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) and water deficit amounts. The effects of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena on the UMRB as well as the results of the summer agricultural drought conditions were investigated since 2000. The results point to two important findings: 1) the snow-drought-affected zones show an increasing trend since 1980 and 2) severe snow droughts in the winter (from October to April) of a water year trigger severe agricultural droughts in the summer months of the same water year since 2000. It is seen that monitoring snow droughts is as essential as following rainfall regimes in the planning of water resources, agricultural production, and irrigation methods.

No‐till impacts on soil organic carbon and soil quality in the Lower Mississippi River basin: Implications for sustainable management

No‐till impacts on soil organic carbon and soil quality in the Lower Mississippi River basin: Implications for sustainable management