Missile Development Research Articles

Dialogue with John Dunn on Korean Denuclearization

This dialogue addresses the global risk that broke out of the North Korean development of nuclear weapons and missiles. It starts from the brutal consequences of the national division for Korea and asks why North Korea has been so preoccupied with nuclear projects as has been found to be the case since the 1990s, and how much and why Kim Jung-un today differs from his father in terms of his future, and where the fundamental limit lies in Moon Jae-In’s as well as Trump’s approaches to Korean denuclearization and peace. The highlight of this dialogue is to explain the intrinsic difficulties for Donald Trump and Kim Jung-un in finding a reasonable solution to their respective demands for denuclearization and regime security, and explore the likely future of the Korean Peninsula from the vantage point of Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy and metamorphosis.

The State of Nuclear Weapons in 2019: Conversations with Experts at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference

ABSTRACTResearch Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA) conducted a series of interviews with nuclear experts on the sidelines of the 2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference held in Washington, DC on March 11 and 12, 2019. In the interviews, which are transcribed below with some edits, Dr. Fumihiko Yoshida and Dr. Tatsujiro Suzuki of RECNA interviewed five experts from China, Germany, Russia, and the United States. Dr. George Perkovich (United States) gives an overview of recent developments in nuclear issues. Ambassador Igor Ivanov (Russia) reflects on the deteriorating Russia–US relationship. Dr. Harald Müller (Germany) gives his thoughts about the world after the INF treaty and about the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Dr. Li Bin (China) explains China’s attitudes on the development of intermediate-range missiles and on missile defense. And finally, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (United States) shares his opinions about North Korea’s nuclear program and the prospects for denuclearization.

Experimental research of arc heater with three electrodes

As a heat source capable of producing extremely high temperature, the arc heater developed with the development of ballistic missiles and other spacecraft. With the development of hypersonic vehicles, the requirement of thermal protection performance test on ground simulation equipment is higher and higher, the current and power of arc heater are increasing. The traditional single-electrode arc heater can’t run stably for a long time under large current. In order to improve the operation stability of the arc heater under large current, a multi-electrode technique was developed. In this paper, the effects of parameters such as arc current, gas flow rate and resistance on the current distribution of each sub-electrode of the three-electrode arc heater are studied. The results show that when the arc current is constant, increasing the resistance difference of each sub-electrode is beneficial to the average distribution of current. With the increasing of arc current, the current distribution of each sub-electrode is more uniform. The setting of parameters such as arc current, gas flow rate and resistance has great influence on the distribution of cathode current of multi-electrode arc heater, but little influence on the anode.

Baekgom: the development of South Korea’s first ballistic missile

ABSTRACTThis article traces and analyzes the development of South Korea’s first ballistic-missile system from 1971 through 1978 based on memoirs and personal accounts by scientists and officials directly involved in missile development during this time. The system is often described as a reverse-engineered copy of the Nike Hercules, a US surface-to-air missile, but this description does not capture the true character of South Korean missile development during the 1970s. By working on the Nike Hercules-based design in cooperation with American and French contractors, South Korea’s weapons specialists gained experience and built facilities that underpinned autonomous missile development for decades afterward. The accounts of South Korean weapons scientists also demonstrate that tacit knowledge—subtle or secret methods and tricks transmitted in person from mentors to protégés rather than written down in textbooks or manuals—can play a crucial role in building successful weapons programs and capable research-and-development capacities.

A nuclear-armed North Korea without ICBMs: the best achievable objective

ABSTRACTThis article analyzes the North Korean nuclear crisis from a balance-of-power perspective. It is in the long-term interests of international peace for a secure and independent North Korea to serve as a buffer between US and Chinese ground forces. However, the conventional military advantage of the South Korean-American alliance over North Korea has grown drastically since the end of the Cold War, threatening North Korea’s survival. Since North Korea lacks any reliable ally, nuclear weapons represent its most cost-effective way to restore a balance of power and thus secure itself. Accepting security guarantees in exchange for its nuclear arsenal is rhetorically appealing but not a viable approach. North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, has overcompensated for the post-Cold War imbalance, inviting talk in Washington of waging a preventive war. Persuading North Korea to give up its ICBM capability, not its nuclear arsenal, should therefore be the primary objective of US diplomacy.

Atmosphere pollution modeling in the case of accident during rocket propellant transportation by trains

At present time, in Ukraine the intensive development of solid-propellant missiles takes place. These missiles are called «Grim», «Grim-2», etc. Transportation of rocket propellant very often is carried out by trains. In the case of accident during such transportation great amount of toxic chemicals may be emitted into atmosphere. It is very important to predict the atmosphere pollution level near railways transport corridors to obtain the realistic information about the size of possible zones of hitting. To forecast the atmosphere pollution in the case of rocket propellant burning in railway wagon numerical models have been developed. These models are developed to predict the atmosphere pollution in two scales. The first scale is the simulation of the atmosphere pollution near the railway tracks (so called “local scale”). The second scale is the simulation of the atmosphere pollution on the territory which is adjacent to the railway tracks («urban scale»). The forecast is based on the Lagrangian model of toxic chemical dispersion. The models allow also to predict acid rain formation in the case of solid propellant burning products dispersion into atmosphere. To solve the governing equations we used difference schemes of splitting. The results of numerical experiments are presented.

아시아 안보에 나타난 강압외교와 미국의 견제

In Asia, China and North Korea embark on diplomatic coercion by force. North Korea has attempted to achieve its political goals through nuclear and missile development and threats to the international community. China tried to control the South China Sea through the direct use of military power in the South China Sea. China has used economic sanctions against the world to achieve its political objectives. The international community, however, has succumbed to the coercion diplomacy of these two countries, but there are some countries that subvert China. In particular, China has shown a subservient attitude to the US`s coercive diplomacy, which overwhelms China`s power. This study analyzed the arrogance and humiliation of diplomacy in Chinese power and analyzed US regulations on North Korea.

Nehru the Father of Indian Atomic Bomb and Integrated Guided Missile Development Program: A Historical Perspective

Nehru the Father of Indian Atomic Bomb and Integrated Guided Missile Development Program: A Historical Perspective

Relationship between Economic Sanctions and Militarized Conflict Focusing on Reciprocal Causation

ABSTRACT This research empirically examines the relationship between economic sanctions and militarized conflicts for the period 1945–2001. The collective security principles of the League of Nations (after WWI) and the United Nations (after WWII) are based on the sequential imposition of economic and militarized sanctions against states that violate international rules and regulations. A recent example is the international sanctions imposed on North Korea in response to its nuclear weapons testing and ballistic missile development. Theoretical arguments in the field of international relations suggest that economic sanctions lead to militarized tensions and conflicts among states. In this research, we argue that the relationship between economic sanctions and military conflict is two-way (i.e. sanctions cause conflict, and conflict causes sanctions) rather than one-way. Using sanctions data (Threat and Imposition of Sanctions v4.0) and conflict data (Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Disputes v4.2; International Crisis Behavior v12), we find that the relationship is mutually causative. The involvement of economic sanctions causes the onset of militarized conflict, and vice versa.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ ЯДЕРНОГО СДЕРЖИВАНИЯ

It would be difficult to find a term that has been more frequently used in international security discourse than “nuclear deterrence”. During the last three decades, U.S. and Russian nuclear forces have been reduced by 6-7 times in warheads number, and strategic balance is more stable than it has ever been in the past 30 years in its classic sense – the mutual unfeasibility of a first (disarming) strike. However, the main present paradox is that the threat of nuclear war between the two leading powers is now higher than any time during the last three decades. Also the understanding of the notion of stability and nuclear deterrence by the two nations has diverged far apart. It is noteworthy that the main strategic document of Donald Trump’s administration – “Nuclear Posture Review” of January 2018 – makes the nuclear stance of the two powers more symmetric. In contrast to the previous administration of Barack Obama, the new U.S. government is emphasizing the growing importance of nuclear arms and nuclear deterrence for American and international security. While the democrats were reducing reliance on nuclear deterrence and promoting long-range conventional defensive and offensive weapons, the republicans have approved a massive program of modernization of all legs of strategic triade, development of new sea-based and airbased nuclear cruise missiles and introduction of low-yield nuclear warheads. However, this new symmetry is not a guarantee for a new beginning of the U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control dialogue or removal of the danger of nuclear war. The main threats of an armed conflict between the United States and Russia stem from several directions. One is the probability of an uncontrolled crisis escalation in Eastern Europe or Syria. Another is the possibility of the employment of conventional long-range precision-guided cruise and boost-glide missiles in attacking nuclear forces and command-control system of the opponent in line with the strategic concepts of “conventional (or pre-nuclear) deterrence”. Yet another threat is the deployment and possible employment of low-yield nuclear weapons, which are assigned missions of selective nuclear strikes in line with the concept of conflict “de-escalation”. In order to remove these dangers strategic arms control negotiations should be resumed as soon as possible and in the meanwhile existing treaties must be sustained. The juxtaposed Russian and NATO armed forces in the Eastern Europe should be disengaged and limited. New understanding of the notions of nuclear deterrence and strategic stability should be forged. Acknowledgements. This article was prepared with financial support of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Science, Program No 22: “The analysis and forecast of the new global challenges and opportunities for Russia” (project “Emergence of a polycentric world order: risks and opportunities for Russia”).

Problems of evaluating development testing quality of missile prototypes in full-scale experiments at the development testing stage and ways of solving these problems

The paper analyses whether the volume of new generation missile testing is sufficient for a given development timescale. We consider development testing specifics for the new generation of missiles. The paper cites labour input estimates for debugging the software used in contemporary surface-to-air missiles. We present an approach to estimating missile design and development process quality according to a combination of indices, taking into account how urgent the problem under consideration is for a range of leading developers, as well as for the benefit of the customer.

정권 불안인가? 아니면 정권 탄력성인가? 핵과 미사일 고도화에 따른 북한의 대전략

정권 불안인가? 아니면 정권 탄력성인가? 핵과 미사일 고도화에 따른 북한의 대전략

Retrospective Identification of the Virtual Analogues of Ballistic Missiles

Разработка ракет как сложных технических изделий требует системного анализа проектных параметров, тактических, эксплуатационных и технических характеристик реальных ракет, прошедших все этапы жизненного цикла: разработка, производство, испытания, эксплуатация. Одним из эффективных методов решения таких задач является анализ конструкторской и технологической документации, а также конкретных образцов изделий. Если по объективным причинам это невыполнимо, необходимо воссоздать виртуальные аналоги ранее созданных ракет. Наиболее подходящим для этих целей является метод ретроспективной идентификации, заключающийся в имитационном моделировании исследуемых ракет с последовательной детализацией их параметров. Рассмотрен процесс идентификации виртуальных аналогов одноступенчатых баллистических ракет - от анализа «уравнения существования» до имитационного моделирования траектории полета управляемой одноступенчатой баллистической ракеты с вертикальным стартом и программным изменением угла тангажа и угла атаки. Приведены параметры и характеристики виртуальных аналогов одноступенчатых баллистических ракет: 11 ракет с двигателями на жидких криогенных топливах; 13 ракет с двигателями на жидких высококипящих топливах; 12 ракет с двигателями на твердых топливах. Для ракет с ЖРД методом наименьших квадратов получены полиномы, определяющие зависимости от максимальной дальности полета, минимальных и средних значений относительных масс топлива и конструкции двигательной установки.

Strengthening Public Diplomacy with the United States and China for a Korean Unification

Throughout the history of South Korean diplomacy, many different government entities have launched a wide variety of different initiatives with the goal of promoting international exchange. However, those efforts did not achieve desired results, failing to gain the support and understanding of neighboring powers with regard to the South Korean vision for a Northeast Asia peace agreement and reunification Korean peninsula. Two of these powers, The United States and The People's Republic of China, are paying close attention to the DPRK nuclear and missile development programs, as well as the Six-party talks, considering how these issues will impact their own countries. As such, South Korean foreign policy toward the United States and China—countries which are very important political and economic actors—will be foundational for laying a framework for a future unified Korean peninsula. Apart from the need to consider neighboring powers in relation to public diplomacy, there is also the practical need for a more efficient system for strategic implementation of public diplomacy efforts that will help to bring unification. To that end, this paper will explore the complex web of parties interested in the security situation on the Korean peninsula, while also asserting that Korea must create foreign and domestic public diplomacy strategies that are more effective and pragmatic toward said parties, learning from past failures. In addition, this paper will recommend that Korean diplomats develop communication objectives that go beyond simply enhancing the Korean national brand and image, to communication strategies that emphasize management of international and strategic problems in ways that articulate Korean policy positions, while also raising awareness of Korean issues and concerns.

FROM STRATEGIC PATIENCE TO STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY: Trump, North Korea, and South Korea's New President

The Trump administration declared the Obama‐era “strategic patience” toward North Korea a failure. As President Trump extols unpredictability as a virtue, the new U.S. policy of “maximum pressure and engagement” has become a factor of strategic uncertainty in Northeast Asia. However, the instrumental use of uncertainty has a narrow window of opportunity for frustrating North Korea's nuclear missile development and raising international expectations for China holding Pyongyang accountable. This article considers the prospects of the United States in leveraging “all options on the table” while recognizing the contradictions in China's role and in South Korea's domestic politics.

Homeland missile defense: How the United States got here

ABSTRACTOver the last two administrations, protection of the homeland has formally been the top priority of US missile defense efforts. The importance of homeland or national missile defense is in the first instance a function of strategy – the refusal to accept a relationship based on mutual vulnerability with respect to certain kinds of threats. Understanding the history of homeland missile defense development is necessary to understand both the capabilities and shortfalls of the system fielded today. To be sure, there are simply too many missile-armed actors and too much uncertainty to accept complete vulnerability. But the interceptors fielded today also remain too limited, too modest, and insufficiently reliable relative to emerging threats. Significant improvements to interceptor reliability, capability, and capacity will therefore be needed to sustain and support the current strategy.

핵무기와 미사일 개발의 진척에 따른 북한의 대외전략의 변화 전망과 우리의 대응방향

핵무기와 미사일 개발의 진척에 따른 북한의 대외전략의 변화 전망과 우리의 대응방향

IIR과 EO 영상 융합 환경의 표적 크기추정 알고리즘 F-TSE 연구

The dual-mode seeker missile has become a recent trend in missile development. In this paper, we propose the F-TSE algorithm for dual-mode seeker (electro-optical (EO) and imaging infrared (IIR) guidance systems) missiles. In previous research, we proposed the TSE algorithm to estimate IIR target size estimation in a single-mode IIR seeker missile. To estimate the target size for a dual-mode seeker missile, we additionally applied a template matching method for acquiring EO target size information. The performance of the proposed F-TSE method was tested in a target intercept scenario using a dual-mode seeker equipped missile. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm obtained a relatively improved performance.

Did Star Wars Help End the Cold War? Soviet Response to the SDI Program

ABSTRACTThe Strategic Defense Initiative was a U.S. missile defense program that played a very prominent role in the U.S.–Soviet relationships in the 1980s and is often credited with helping end the Cold War, as it presented the Soviet Union with a technological challenge that it could not meet. This article introduces several official Soviet documents to examine Soviet response to SDI. The evidence suggests that although the Soviet Union expressed serious concerns about U.S. missile defense program, SDI was not a decisive factor in advancing arms control negotiations. Instead, the program seriously complicated U.S.–Soviet arms control process. SDI also failed to dissuade the Soviet Union from investing in development of ballistic missiles. The Soviet Union quickly identified ways to avoid a technological arms race with the United States and focused on development of advanced missiles and anti-satellite systems to counter missile defenses. Some of these programs have been preserved to the current day.

Old Wine in a New Bottle?: China’s Korea Problem

China's dealings with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have not been easy, not even during the Korean War in which the two fought side by side. The relationship has experienced many ups and downs over the years. Most recently, the nuclear tests by North Korea and the United States' planned deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea have forced China to rethink its policy toward North Korea.This essay will analyze the recent interactions between China and the DPRK and examine the factors that prompted China to adopt a tougher stance toward Pyongyang. However, this policy change has been complicated and mitigated by the United States' decision to deploy THAAD in South Korea. Given its multiple strategic interests, China must constantly balance between different players and options, and this has put it in an awkward situation. Nevertheless, together with the United States and other UN Security Council members, China supported UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2321. Looking forward, China is also faced with the uncertainties that result from South Korea's political crisis and the transition to the Donald Trump administration in the United States.Balancing ActSince Kim Jong-il's death and his son Kim Jong-un's assumption of power in December 2011, the Sino-DPRK relationship has been lukewarm. Four years after the 18th Party Congress and Xi Jinping's rise to the Chinese Communist Party's top post, no Xi-Kim meeting has happened yet. By contrast, in that time China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have not only exchanged state visits but also formed a free trade area, as the ROK has risen on China's foreign policy agenda.In October 2015, Liu Yunshan-one of the seven members of China's top leadership-traveled to Pyongyang for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Worker's Party of Korea (WPK). China made an effort to improve the Sino-DPRK relationship, but less than three months later North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January 2016. The test immediately changed the dynamic of relations, and two months later China and the other UN Security Council members reached a consensus and released UNSCR 2270 to impose the toughest sanctions to date against North Korea. The resolution contains unprecedented inspection and financial provisions, including mandatory inspections of cargo to and from North Korea and a requirement to terminate banking relationships with North Korean financial institutions. Most significantly, it includes for the first time sectoral sanctions, which prohibit the DPRK from both exporting key resources such as coal, gold, iron, titanium, and rare earth materials and importing aviation and rocket fuel.1With UNSCR 2270, China became much more serious with respect to implementing the Security Council resolutions concerning North Korea's nuclear and missile development activities. In early April, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs released a new list of embargoed items that cannot be imported from or exported to North Korea, though the list excluded items needed for maintaining the livelihood of ordinary people or providing humanitarian assistance.Pyongyang could not have been happy with the sanctions imposed by China. However, neither Beijing nor Pyongyang wanted to sever ties, and instead the two tried to maintain a normal relationship during this time of heightened tension. Shortly after the WPK had held its 7th Party Congress in May 2016-the first of its kind in more than 30 years-North Korea sent a high-level delegation to China to give a briefing on developments at the congress. The delegation was headed by Ri Su-yong, a member of the Politburo and vice chairman of the Central Committee of the WPK, who met with President Xi. The delegation delivered a message from Kim Jong-un expressing his hope to work with China to strengthen and develop the two countries' traditional bilateral friendship and, ironically, maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia. …