While depressive symptoms improve for most patients following minimally invasive lumbar decompression (MIS LD), for some, symptoms may worsen. This study aimed to investigate predictors of change in depressive symptoms in the short-term postoperative period following MIS LD. We retrospectively analyzed a prospective surgical database for patients undergoing primary MIS LD procedures from 2016 to 2020. Preoperative pain (visual analog scale back and leg) scores were recorded, and the 9-Item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was administered at the preoperative and postoperative (6 weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year) timepoints. Patients were grouped into 1 of 3 categories of depression severity based on preoperative PHQ-9 scores: minimal (0-4), mild (5-9), and moderate to severe (10-27). Postoperative change in depressive symptoms was calculated by determining differences from baseline scores to scores at 6 weeks, 12 weeks, and 6 months. Analysis of demographics, perioperative characteristics, and spinal pathologies was conducted using χ 2 test. Significant factors contributing to postoperative changes in depression were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. Significance was set at P = 0.05. The 216 patients included had a mean age of 48 years, and a majority were men (70.4%). Most patients had a preoperative diagnosis of spinal stenosis (90.3%) or herniated nucleus pulposus (69.9%). Univariate analysis identified age, ethnicity, insurance, and diabetes as significant variables among depression severity groups. Patients demonstrated significant improvements in depressive symptoms at all postoperative timepoints (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified several significant predictors of postoperative change in PHQ-9, which included moderate to severe preoperative depression for all postoperative timepoints (all P ≤ 0.038), mild preoperative depression for 6 weeks and 12 weeks (both P ≤ 0.029), and private insurance (P = 0.002) and smoking status (P = 0.047) at 12 weeks. Depression improved at all postoperative timepoints following LD. Insurance type, smoking status, and preoperative depression severity were all identified as significant predictors of postoperative changes in depressive symptoms. This study explores predictors of changes in depressive symptoms following LD.