Ministry Of Economic Development Research Articles

СЛОЖИВШИЕСЯ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ДЕНЕЖНОКРЕДИТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ И ТОЧКИ РОСТА ЭКОНОМИКИ РОССИИ

During the report, short-term forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank were considered, issues of the artificially low exchange rate of the ruble, the low level of monetization of the Russian economy were analyzed, and certain priority directions for the further development of our country were identified.

Financial security of the banking system of Ukraine

This study examines approaches to understanding the essence of the financial security of the state's banking system, which is one of the key components of the economic system. The analysis was carried out and scientific research related to the understanding of the concept of «financial security of the bank» was organized. The main goal of ensuring the financial security of banks and the structure of the country's banking sector has been determined. The dynamics of changes in the number of operating banks in the period from 2019 to the first quarter of 2023 were monitored. The solvency of banking institutions during the studied period was studied. The article evaluates the main indicators of the state's banking sector and analyzes its current state, namely the dynamics of income and expenses, for the period from 2019 to 2023 based on official statistical data of the National Bank of Ukraine. The evaluation of the effectiveness of the functioning of the banking system of Ukraine is given, using the integral indicator of the security of the banking system according to the recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine. For this purpose, the following calculation indicators were considered and determined: the share of overdue loans in loans granted by resident banks, the ratio of bank loans and deposits in foreign currency, the share of foreign capital in the authorized capital of banks, the ratio of long-term loans and deposits, the profitability of assets, the ratio of liquid assets to short-term liabilities. After that, the range of limit values of the integral indicator of banking security was examined and compared with the data of the analyzed period. The results of the calculations made it possible to draw conclusions about the current state of financial security of the banking system of Ukraine. It was determined that it is necessary to develop and implement a set of measures aimed at increasing the overall level of financial security of the banking system. Taking into account the results of the analysis and calculations of the indicators of the integral indicator of financial security, it is clear the importance of the need to implement these measures to ensure the stability and reliability of the functioning of the banking system as a whole.

Experimental legal regime – a testing ground for innovation and regulation

The focus of this article is a critical analysis of the regulatory window of the experimental legal regime in the field of digital innovation. Its distinctive features are distinguished: its secondary nature in relation to the basic legal regulation, its ordinariness, its voluntary extension to business entities, its expansive or neutral influence on the scope of their legal capacity, its certainty in terms of time and the circle of persons. It is noted that the implementation of the experimental legal regime in the direction of the financial market has certain features, which is manifested in the possibility of establishing additional conditions for the experimental legal regime, separating its secondary regulatory window, giving the Bank of Russia the functions of an authorized body, etc. Next, the mechanism for establishing an experimental legal regime is outlined, in which five consecutive stages are distinguished: the introduction of an initiative proposal to the Ministry of Economic Development (or the Bank of Russia); consideration of the initiative proposal by the authorized body with the participation of the business community, branch ministries and the highest authority of the subject of the Russian Federation (optional); the establishment of an experimental legal regime by the Government of the Russian Federation; implementation and monitoring of the experimental legal regime, as well as evaluation of its effectiveness and efficiency. In conclusion, the norms of the experimental legal regime, potentially tending to corruption-causing factors, are identified and ways to improve legislation are proposed.

Оценка обменно-распределительных отношений на основе межотраслевых сравнений в АПК

The state provides domestic agricultural producers with support aimed at creating favorable conditions for their functioning, sustainable development of agricultural production, ensuring food security and improving the supply of food to the population, and the food industry with raw materials. With the transition to a new technological order and an orientation towards an innovative development path, this requires huge investments. It should also be taken into account that during the years of reforms, incomes were withdrawn from agriculture through price disparity. It is necessary to create a mechanism of financial support for the modernization of agriculture on the basis of strategic planning, which will ensure sufficient profitability of agricultural producers and restrain intersectoral disparity and rising prices for resources for the agricultural sector of the economy. This is confirmed in the article by calculations using deflator coefficients, which are used by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia for budget planning and the formation of federal, regional and sectoral strategic planning documents.

Анализ документов прогнозирования социально-экономического развития российской Арктики

The tasks of forecasting the development of Russian territories, in particular the territory of the Arctic, are the most problematic due to the urgent need of the economy and management for a reliable forecast, the uncertainty of the near future caused by the turbulence of geopolitics, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes, which are also not fully measurable. The purpose of the article is to present the initial grounds and forecast of the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic with a lead time up to 2023. The methodological peculiarity of the research is to take into account geopolitical, national, regional, industrial factors and development trends on the basis of using: 1) the analysis results of real and perspective global trends recorded in statistical indicators, forecast documents of the IMF, WTO, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia; 2) generalizations, comparisons of official forecasts and development plans of the AZRF adopted at the federal, regional levels, as well as forecasts, plans of corporations operating in the AZRF; 3) analysis of real statistical data using the author's econometric models. Given the considerable amount of analytical information received, the aspects and factors that have a key influence on the prospects of socio-economic development of the Arctic are outlined and classified according to the following levels: global, national, regional. Forecasts are made for the regions entirely located in the Arctic zone — Yamalo-Nenets, Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, the Murmansk Oblast with an anticipation period up to 20212023. The importance of scientific forecasting in modern conditions is emphasized, encouraging reflection, new hypotheses, discussions.

Selected aspects of the digitisation of spatial planning in the context of legislative changes in Poland

Digitisation of spatial planning can be considered multi-dimensionally. The more comprehensive the approach, the better the solutions will be. The idea of a step-by-step approach should bring the best end result. The obligation to create spatial data, which was introduced in Poland, in a way, forced municipalities or urban planners to acquire knowledge and skills in geoinformation and GIS software. The main objective of this article is to present the assumptions and propose a framework and further stages of digitisation of spatial planning in Poland. The specific objective is to present the legislation in the process of digitisation of spatial planning, which has been initiated or significantly modified by the author, and the procedure of which has started or was ongoing in the Department of Spatial Planning within the Ministry of Economic Development and Technology in June 2021. Thus, in addition to the implemented measures, the author also indicates the potential and benefits for urban planners, resulting from the creation of the graphic part of acts in vector form, but also outlines the importance of such studies for various groups of recipients and public administration. At the same time, the people for whom any solution is created – the general public – should not be forgotten.

Результативность реализации ВЦП «Создание 100 роботизированных молочных ферм в Калужской области»

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to analyze the effectiveness of the implementation of the “Creation of 100 robotic dairy farms” in the Kaluga region, the economic assessment of the implementation of the Program to identify its positive and negative sides. Research methods. The research was carried out in the scientific department – Economics and Organization of the Kaluga Research Institute of Agricultural Sciences – branch of the A. G. Lorkh Federal Potato Research Center in accordance with generally accepted methods and the methodology of the standard assessment of the effectiveness of the Departmental Target Program approved by Order No. 592-p of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Kaluga Region dated 05.06.2008 (as amended by Order No. 1177 of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Kaluga Region dated 16.11.2016-p) No. 1177-p). Results. Studies of the effectiveness of the implementation of the Departmental Target Program “Creation of 100 robotic dairy farms” in the Kaluga region have shown the effectiveness of regional support measures. The coefficient of overall efficiency of spending funds, on average for the entire period of the study is 201 %, with variations over the years of research from –69.8 to 812.3 %. Milk production in agricultural organizations and peasant (farmer) farms of the Kaluga region increased by 212.6 % compared to 2010, and in farms – by 3.1 times. In the context of farms: according to JSC “Krivskoye” from 110 to 276 % (on average, according to the study, 167 %), with an increase in milk production during the introduction of robotization of milking cows (from 2015 to 2020) 164 %; according to the Tarasenkov farm from –300 to 3040 % (on average, according to the study, 787 %). Against the background of an increase in milk production, the transfer to robotic milking of cows contributed to a reduction in labor costs for the production of 1 kg of milk from 2013 in the Kaluga region from 2.63 to 0.57 man-hour, a decrease of 73 %. A similar dynamics is observed in CJSC “Krivskoe”, a reduction in labor costs of 75.4 % (from 0.73 to 0.18 people/hour). Scientific novelty. For the first time in the conditions of the region, an analysis of the main results of the work of agricultural producers participating in the Departmental target program was carried out, an assessment of the effectiveness of implementation was given on the example of a separate agricultural organization, a farm, and the region as a whole.

Digital Transformation and Big Data

Today, the Russian Federation pays special attention to the digital transformation of the country as a whole and shows a separate interest in big data in particular, which is confirmed by a number of analyzed documents and the current situation in the subject area. The research work proposed for reading is devoted to the analysis of big data, one of the areas of use of which is the state, or rather the work of federal and regional executive authorities. The main value of big data from the position of the state is seen in the possibility of working on volumes of heterogeneous information in order to increase efficiency in making managerial decisions on a wide range of issues. The main purpose of the study is to disseminate the experience of big data analysis, which is used in the work of the Ministry of Economic Development of Primorsky Krai. To do this, it is proposed to turn to the theoretical aspects of big data, find out the main chain of work on them, and also pay attention to domestic and foreign experience in using data in some areas of knowledge. The practical part of the study is a description of the experience of the Ministry of Economic Development of the PC, which is directly related to the digital development of the region and carries out a certain list of works with heterogeneous data. As an example, attention is drawn to a proven approach to the analysis of a large set of open data characterizing the work and development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Primorsky Territory, posted on the website of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. In conclusion, it is emphasized that the approach proposed in the study for working with data can be adapted to similar needs in other federal and regional authorities

Implementation of digital competencies in higher education educational programs in Russia

In the context of digitalisation, the transformation of the educational process is inevitable and is a priority issue for any country that wants to maintain or improve its position on the world stage. The article presents a comparative analysis of digital competencies and the possibility of their implementation in the higher education system in Russia. The comparison of the formulated competencies in the methodology approved by the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation No. 41 dated January 24, 2020, as well as the International Telecommunication Union and other European organisations is considered. The descriptors (knowledge, skills and abilities) of graduates in various fields who, in the era of digitalisation, must have the necessary digital competencies are identified. Today, professional standards, even in the humanities, define the requirements for technical and computer skills. The article proposes formulations of universal competencies in the higher education system based on the analysis.

DSS fertirrigation system: An Italian case study

The proposed paper deals with a Decision Support System (DSS) conceived for agronomists and farm managers involved in the fertirrigation (FER) process. The DSS has been developed within the Smart District 4.0 (SD 4.0) project, funded with the contribution of the Italian Ministry of Economic Development (MISE), aiming to sustain the digitization process of the Italian Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The DSS is part of an integrated framework, mainly including advanced services for blockchain traceability and agriculture planning, optimizing the cooperation among different actors, such as farmers, agronomists and fertilizer suppliers. The most relevant and challenging part of the platform consists of Machine Learning (ML) supervised and unsupervised algorithms with high performance, to optimize production and quality in viticulture. Specifically, the Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) model provides the performance about time shortage prediction when compared with other ML algorithm performance. Finally, the clustering k-Means algorithm is applied to extract information about active substances, doses, time of shortage, adversities, and pathogen elements, useful to optimize a FER plan. All the analyzed algorithms are applied to an experimental dataset. The work starts with the design of the processes and of the information flow able to optimize grape supply chain and traceability, and then focuses on data analysis. The data analysis approach is suitable to formulate precision farming rules.

From the Editor's Desk

I would like to open my second issue as editor of Italica by conveying my best wishes for a restful winter break to our editorial board, publisher, contributors, gracious peer reviewers, and readers. May we enjoy our favorite vacation spots and the company of our beloved ones before the start of a new academic semester, filled with hopes of new achievements.Issue 99.2 includes a variety of thought-provoking articles on literature and language while providing a special focus on the Sicilian writer Giovanni Verga, who died January 27, 1922. I am very proud to share essays authored by Gabriella Alfieri, president of the Fondazione Verga and academician of the Crusca, Andrea Manganaro, vice president of the scientific council of the Fondazione Verga as well as member of Italica's editorial board, and Antonio Di Silvestro, faculty member in the Department of Scienze Umanistiche and director of the Centro di Informatica Umanistica at the University of Catania. The celebrations of the writer Verga, father of the Italian verismo, started January 27, 2022, and will conclude in the month of December 2022 with a conference sponsored by the University of Catania and the Fondazione. Both institutions have planned and implemented together all the scholarly, cultural, and editorial engagements related to the local author, interacting with various other entities, at the national and international level. Among these are the University of Toronto (Canada); Université de Paris 3 – La Sorbonne – Centre Zola (France); Universitad de Salamanca and the Universitad de Sevilla (Spain); and Università Statale di Milano, Università di Pavia, Università di Firenze, Università di Siena, Università per stranieri di Siena, Università di Palermo, Università di Messina, Accademia della Crusca, Centro di Studi Filologici e Linguistici Siciliani di Palermo, and Società di Storia Patria per la Sicilia orientale (Italy). Throughout the year, the Foundation has also been advancing the digital distribution of the writer's work, with the support of the Ministry of Culture. In December 2021, the Sicilian filmmaker Lorenzo Muscoso launched the “Verga 100” event with a series of theatrical, cinematic and musical appointments throughout the Italian and European territory. On January 27, 2022, he launched the official book of the centenary, announced the postage stamp dedicated to the novelist made in collaboration with the Ministry of Economic Development, and organized the broadcasting of Jeli il Pastore, Cavalleria Rusticana, and La Lupa. This focus is our humble homage to the unforgettable work of literary luminary Giovanni Verga.Buona lettura!

Strategies for Socioeconomic Development with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Scenarios and Realities for Russia.

This article is a supplemented and updated version of the report at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development on September 21, 2021. The authors analyze the main opportunities and risks of implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. The key role of the global climate agenda, determined by the leading countries of the world, primarily the European Union, in shaping the institutional environment that influences decision making in the field of national economic policy, is emphasized. It is argued that there is no automatic positive relationship between the race for so-called carbon neutrality of the economy by 2050, prescribed by the global climate agenda, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals set by the United Nations. Principles and approaches to reduce the risks of decarbonization of the economy are formulated. These provide for the integration of a set of measures to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions with those to adapt communities and economic systems to climate change, and harmonize the measures above with the national goals of long-term sustainable development. Estimates of the economic effects of implementation of various scenarios of the decarbonization of the national economy and the associated risks of the global energy transition for Russia are introduced.

Aspects of state support for women’s entrepreneurship in Russia: obstacles and opportunities

Aim. The work aimed to develop proposals to improve the state policy in the field of women’s entrepreneurship in the Russian Federation (RF).Tasks. The work was performed to reveal the specifics of women’s entrepreneurship in Russia; identify the main obstacles and problems specific to Russian female entrepreneurs; analyze the existing programs of state support for women’s entrepreneurship in RF, their completeness and effectiveness of implementation.Methods. The aspects of the development of women’s entrepreneurship in Russia are analyzed using general methods of scientific cognition in various fields. Within the study conducted in March 2021 in the format of an electronic survey of 35 female respondents employed in small and medium-sized businesses in six cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sochi, Vladivostok, Yaroslavl, Surgut), the main problems faced by female entrepreneurs were revealed, as well as threats and opportunities for women’s entrepreneurship under the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as well as an assessment of the level of government support was presented from the respondents.Results. The main obstacles for women in establishing their own business in Russia were found to be the problems of financing, initial investments, and searching for investors, the problems of poor development of business education and financial literacy, as well as difficult administrative obstacles and insufficient state support. In addition, a high adaptability of women in business was also established. This characteristic is evidenced by many previous studies. However in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the skills of female leaders, the ability to make the right strategic decisions and exercise management competently in crisis situations have come to the fore.Conclusion. Taking into account the identified obstacles to the development of women’s entrepreneurship, the existing state support in this field seems to be insufficiently effective. As part of solving this problem, a number of measures can be proposed, namely the creation of an all- Russian educational center for female entrepreneurs with regional branches in all major cities of Russia; the introduction of the concept of “women’s entrepreneurship” into the law on support for small and medium-sized businesses and the formation of a specific unit in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation; establishing a tax holiday regime for single mothers and mothers with many children who run a business in small towns and rural areas.

Modern trends in the development of small businesses taxing

The article is devoted to assessing the role and determining the directions of improving the efficiency of the tax administration system in order to develop the activities of small and medium-sized businesses and the development of individual entrepreneurial initiative in the Russian Federation as priorities of the national economy. The study includes two parts: the first is devoted to the identification of modern trends in the tax administration of small businesses, the second - the directions of their development. The research methodology includes general scientific and private scientific methods of cognition, including analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, method of comparison, generalization, analysis of dynamic series, graphical method of data representation and visualization. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the comprehensive development of proposals to improve a number of mechanisms and tools for tax administration of small businesses, ensuring the effective implementation of state policy in the field of small and medium-sized business development, contributing to the activation of individual entrepreneurial initiative. The scope of application of the research' results: The Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Federal Tax Service, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, other interested public authorities and management bodies can use the results of the study in determining ways to develop tax administration in the Russian Federation in terms of stimulating the activities of small and medium-sized businesses.

Young entrepreneurs and skills mismatch in school-to-work transition: empirical evidence from innovation processes managed in Italian NTBFs

PurposeDiversity in entrepreneurship has become a noteworthy topic of research since consistent differences – and few similarities, if any – exist among entrepreneurial profiles. The present paper aims to compare different entrepreneurial profiles managing innovation processes in new technology-based firms (NTBFs). In particular, attention is focussed on young entrepreneurs who are in a critical phase of their lifelong learning, the school-to-work transition.Design/methodology/approachStatistical elaborations are based on data retrieved from Italian Ministry of Economic Development in January 2021 and carried out through stochastic frontier analyses. Respectively, 1,699 young entrepreneurs, 1,079 female entrepreneurs, 205 ethnic entrepreneurs and 8,224 stereotyped entrepreneurs are considered.FindingsFactors affecting the performance of innovation processes managed in NTBFs are the same for stereotyped and female entrepreneurs, but they consistently differ for young and ethnic entrepreneurs. Achieved results are not in the position to offer a complete analysis of the phenomenon but – hopefully – can corroborate a very interesting and up-to-date research path that merits further development. In particular, young entrepreneurs disclose an unexpected skills mismatch that should be investigated in-depth.Originality/valueMost contributions offer a narrow view of entrepreneurial profiles since they focus on one profile per time. The present paper, instead, considers four entrepreneurial profiles and compares them. Moreover, young entrepreneurs reveal an unexpected skills mismatch that underlines the relevance of specific activities of on-the-job training and apprenticeships in order to try to overcome it and improve the results achievable by young entrepreneurs.

Rospatent in the Management of Regional Development in the Development Paradigm of the Intellectual Property Area

Introduction. There is a regional policy focus on the IP management due to the increasing role in global value chains and the competitive environment for regional goods and services. The development of a re­gional intellectual property market is particularly important in the face of sanctions challenges. The Federal Service for Intellectual Property works with the regions of the Russian Federation in various areas, the main of which are cooperation within the creation of Technology and Innovation Support Centres and the implementation of tripartite agreements. Methods. Methods of patent analysis, analysis of norma­tive regulations in the field of state regulation and support of innova­tive entrepreneurship and inventors in regions were used. Results and Discussion. Rospatent and the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia determined the composition of indicators that should be considered in the forecast values of the development of the IP area. In 2021, all planned values that assess the effectiveness of the imple­mentation of agreements were achieved. In 2021, Federal Institute for Industrial Property (FIPS) specialists developed Methodological Recommendations for the regions on the formation of a strategic vi­sion and the definition of target indicators for the development of the IP area and Methodological Recommendations for the regions on the construction of an IP management system. Rospatent accumulates and analyzes information on the creation of its own IP management sys­tems in the regions, including mechanisms of state support for innova­tive entrepreneurship and inventors. Conclusion. The challenges faced by the Russian economy directly affect the area of intellectual property. Currently, projects are actively implemented under the Business Climate Transformation Action Plan "Intellectual Property", including the crea­tion of the necessary tax conditions. In 2021, 15 customer-centric servic­es for the provision of public services based on modern domestic digital technologies were created. They are now being tested and will soon be put into operation.

New Approaches to Assessing the Effectiveness of Federal Budget Allocations and Extrabudgetary Funds for R&D

Introduction. The article presents approaches to assessing the effec­tiveness of spending budget allocations of the federal budget and extra­budgetary funds for research and development (R&D) works of civil pur­pose, prepared on the basis of an analysis of programme documents at the federal level. Methods. The study was conducted using comparative and non-comparative analysis, synthesis, abstraction and concretisation. The deductive and inductive analysis of the Report on the Spending of the Federal Budget (f. 0507011) and the Consolidated Annual Report of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia on the progress of im­plementation and evaluation of the effectiveness of state programmes of the Russian Federation for 2019 was also used. Results and Discussion. Sources of data on the spending of federal budget allocations and extra­budgetary funds on civil research and development within the state pro­grammes of the Russian Federation, as well as on the progress in the im­plementation and evaluation of the effectiveness of state programmes have been identified. The instruments for spending budget allocations of the federal budget (instruments of the 1st and 2nd levels) have been defined. Approaches have been developed to assess the effectiveness of spending on R&Ds of civil purpose, including determining the degree of impact of spending federal budget allocations and extrabudgetary funds on the achievement of goals under the relevant state programs of the Russian Federation; assessing the degree of impact of using federal budget allocations on R&D in the context of tools for implementing 1st and 2nd level R&D by achieving the established indicators in the process of their implementation. Conclusion. The developed approaches will allow the state authorities concerned to check and confirm or refute the stated result in the programme and reporting documents, which provide information on the achievement of goals and solving tasks under the relevant state programmes of the Russian Federation at the expense of the budget allocations of the federal budget of the Russian Federation and extrabudgetary sources for R&Ds, and will also allow determining the extent to which the use of these funds within state programmes of the Russian Federation was effective.

Structure of GDP growth rates in Russia up to 2024

By the fall of 2021, the Russian economy had practically overcome the crisis caused by coronavirus pandemic and sharp drop in oil prices in the first half of 2020, having returned in terms of GDP, industrial production and investment in fixed assets to pre-crisis levels. At the same time, the prospects for further growth of the Russian economy remain uncertain, since both in the short and long term, the balance of factors affecting the growth rate of Russia’s GDP is shifted to a negative area. These external factors include the growing risks of a new financial and/or economic crisis in the world’s leading economies (including China), imposing large-scale sanctions against Russia in connection with a special operation in Ukraine, the instability of world commodity markets, as well as the processes of decarbonization and restructuring of the world economy. Internal factors of growth comprise increased investment activity of private and state-owned companies (and in the field of national projects), expansion of non-resource non-energy exports, while internal growth constraints comprise possible decline in the working-age population in Russia and slow growth of the real personal income. According to the official forecast by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, after the recovery acceleration of the economy by 4.2% in 2021 (the first estimate by Rosstat — 4.7%), GDP growth will stabilize at about 3% per year in subsequent years. However, it is lower than expected growth rates of the world economy, but it is significantly higher than the average growth rates of the Russian economy over the past decade (about 0.7% per year).To reveal the growth rates structure, which corresponds to anticipated economic dynamics in Russia, we have used an approach based on identifying three components of GDP growth rates — structural, foreign trade, and business cycle ones. In this article a new decomposition method was applied, which assumes the neutrality of the foreign trade component if the oil price is at the average long-term values.In case of achievement of the RF Ministry of Economic Development forecast, actual and structural unemployment indicators convergence may lead to a shortage of labor in certain sectors of the Russian economy in 2022—2023. The solution to this problem lies in the sphere of external and internal migration policy intensification and measures for promoting inter-sectoral labor mobility. Estimates of the output gap show that it is advisable to pursue a stimulating fiscal policy in 2022 with a transition to neutrality in 2023—2024. Supporting the global spread of vaccines against coronavirus infection and the recovery of the global economy will contribute to an increase in oil prices and in the foreign trade component of economic growth in Russia.

Financial and economic narratives for evaluation of innovative potential of enterprises

Purpose. Development of a methodological approach to the assessment of the enterprise innovation strategy and its modeling. Methodology. During the research, we used general and special methods: systematization for generalization of theoretical bases, comparative analysis and synthesis in order to clarify concepts, formal-logistical for the formation of a methodological approach, graphic-analytical method for visual presentation of research results; empirical research for the study of innovation potential, simulation and multiple regression modeling for the formation of strategic guidelines. Findings. The methodical approach of assessment of the enterprises innovative potential was grounded and the initiative model of choosing the strategy of enterprises was created, which allows analyzing quantitative indicators of structural elements of potential, assessing the level of development of each component. In the course of the research a methodical approach to assessing the intellectual potential of industrial enterprises has been developed. Originality. In contrast to the existing ones, this methodological approach provides: a comprehensive assessment of the innovation potential of industrial enterprises; econometric models for determining the components of the innovation potential of enterprises; the model of innovation strategy selection, which is an informational and analytical tool for working out the variants of strategies and development orients. It is proved that the implementation of the developed methodological approach will allow adopting an effective innovative strategy of enterprise development taking into account financial and economic narratives. Practical value. The results of the research can be used by practitioners, scientists, government officials (the Ministry of Economic Development and its structural divisions, local self-government bodies in the field of economics) for the development and implementation of innovation strategies, as well as for the development of managerial decisions in the field of innovation, increasing the value added, capitalization and level of competitiveness.

Анализ состояния экономики России и перспектив ее развития в период пандемии COVID-19

At present, during a pandemic, an important role is played by the state and prospects for the development of the Russian economy. An increase in the level of economic development creates conditions for the stability of the national economic system, and also provides the foundation for systematic economic growth, even during a pandemic. The Russian economy is characterized by uneven economic development. So, in 2020, the Russian economy has undergone a severe crisis caused by the corona virus pandemic. The difficult epidemiological situation provoked several notable shocks that hit the economy, especially in certain sectors. In 2020, there was a decrease in Russian GDP by 3.1%. Let us turn to the level of Russia’s GDP for the first half of 2021, it increased by 4.6% in relation to the first half of 2020. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in June, Russia's GDP reached the level of the fourth quarter of 2019. It should be noted that the economic component plays a crucial role in any state, since all spheres of human activity are linked by economic relations. In our opinion, the development of theoretical provisions and recommendations on promising areas of development of the Russian economy will allow the state to create a powerful economic base necessary for a stable and sustainable development of the economy.