Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Research Articles

“I Go Where They Go”: Emigration and Jewish Connections with Lithuania from 1918–1940

From the second half of the 19th century, emigration was part of the daily life of almost all Eastern Europeans. According to Lithuanian census data from 1923, the Jewish community accounted for 150,000 (7%) of Lithuania’s total population of 2 million people (excluding the Vilnius region). During the period 1928–1938, Jews made up about 34% of all Lithuanian emigrants. The aim of this article is to explore the relationship between Jewish emigrants and the Lithuanian government from 1918 to 1940. The article will attempt to show how those who have already emigrated are connected to Lithuania, both at a governmental and personal level. Correspondence between the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Lithuanian Jewish communities shows connections related to economic, cultural, and political networks. In addition, the Lithuanian government sought to strengthen ties with the Lithuanian Jewish diaspora, but personal perspective of emigrants does not reflect this tendency. By combining the personal and governmental perspectives, it becomes clear whether these different viewpoints provide similar or different answers to the research questions, and allows us to see the Jewish emigration process in its entirety.

고려의 인물, 徐熙의 ‘將軍’ 호칭에 대한 再論

Seo Hee(徐熙, 942-998), included in elementary and middle school textbooks and among the 100 greatest people of Korea, was a teacher of the people who saved the country from invasion by foreign enemies with excellent wisdom and courageous determ ination, and is a m an whose equal is hard to find in our history. He was an outstanding strategist and diplomat with a strong spirit of independence. Currently, after Seo Hee was described as a 'general' in the elementary school Social Life 6-1 textbook during the first curriculum period after the Korean War(1954-1963), in 1977, Seo Hee's grave in Sanbuk-myeon, Yeoju-si was renamed 'General Seo Hee's Tomb'. It was designated and registered as a Gyeonggi-do monument. Since the memorial conference held on the 1,000th anniversary of Seo Hee's death(1999), major researchers have repeatedly pointed out that the military title 'General' is inappropriate, and the former president and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as a civil servant, and the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, have called it 'Jang Wigong Seo Hee-sang'. Even though it has been designated and announced as a standard portrait, the name has not yet been changed correctly. In addition, there is a problem of unification as different names are used interchangeably in local governments. Currently, the term 'general' in the general dictionary meaning refers to a military officer (military officer) or general(大將) who commands and commands an army, and 'general' in English means a general-level officer(將星級 將校). It is expressed as the rank of a head officer who com m ands and commands the army. Moreover, during the Goryeo Dynasty, a general was the third highest rank in the central army. Using the term ‘general’ with this meaning as ‘General Seohee’ for Seohee, a civil servant, is not the correct title given the trajectory of his actions and life. It is probably not the fault of the academic world or the family alone that they have not yet been able to come up with a suitable name despite constant requests for a nam e change. It originates from the unconsciousness of all of us. Therefore, the name of the current Gyeonggi-do monument, “General Seo Hee’s Tomb,” should be changed to “Yeoju Jangwigong Seo Hee’s Cemetery.”

Grigore Niculescu-Buzești, Chargé d'Affaires of Romania in Riga During the Years Fateful for the Baltic States, 1939–1940

In the case of the mandate that Grigore Niculescu-Buzești (1908–1949) fulfilled in the Latvian capital, attention is captivated, from the very beginning, by his numerous reports and analysis carried out by the Romanian diplomat. A careful and detailed study of the telegrams he sent to Bucharest from the Baltic capital can reveal to anyone, on the one hand, the concerns, fears, tensions and hopes of the authorities in Riga, as well as of Latvian society, in the context of the Soviet-German pact of 23 August 1939, of the outbreak of the war and the relationship with the Soviet Union, and on the other hand, – the mechanisms of Moscow’s aggression that led to the annexation of the Baltic countries in June 1940. Until the summer of 1940, the Romanian diplomat sent numerous telegrams to Bucharest, in which the stages of the annexation can be captured clearly and precisely. The number of documents and the amount of information reveal Bucharest’s high interest regarding the events in the Baltic states at that time. Thus, the author can trace the impact and relevance of his information and analysis in a tragic context, marked by tensions and convulsions throughout Europe. Moreover, Niculescu-Buzeștis experience as Romani’s chargé daffaires in Riga deeply marked the future Romanian minister of foreign affairs.

Content Classification of the Official Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia (MoFA RI) using Vector Space Model (VSM)

The official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia (MoFA RI) is an important platform for disseminating information to a diverse audience. Efficiently categorizing the vast amount of content available on the website is essential for enhancing user experience and optimizing information retrieval. These categories will also become an identifier and topic classification based on the content inside the article. This study presents a systematic approach to content classification of the Official Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia (MoFA RI) using the Vector Space Model (VSM). The methodology involves preprocessing the text data, constructing a term-document matrix, and implementing cosine similarity to measure the relevance of documents to predefined categories. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of VSM in accurately classifying content, thus facilitating streamlined access to information for users navigating the website. Furthermore, the findings offer insights into enhancing the organization and accessibility of governmental online platforms, contributing to improved user experience and information dissemination.

Vicente Lombardo Toledano and the Soviet Approach to the Mexican Left After the Second World War

In the history of relations between the USSR and Latin American states, support for the Soviet foreign policy course from non-communist forces – national reformist parties, trade unions, and leftist intelligentsia associations – was of great importance. The Mexican syndicalist Vicente Lombardo Toledano, founder of the Confederation of Latin American Workers and the Socialist People’s Party, had the greatest political weight among the members of all these organizations. He proclaimed himself a supporter of orthodox Marxism, always supported the USSR in the international arena, and actively interacted with the communists. In this article, the author examines the formation of Lombardo Toledano’s views, his ideas about the significance of the Russian revolution and the USSR for the development of Mexico and other Latin American countries. He notes that communication with him helped the Soviet party and state leadership to avoid excessive dogmatism in assessing the domestic and foreign policies of Mexico in the 1940s–1960s. The author places special emphasis on the extent to which contacts with Lombardo Toledano enabled the CPSU Central Committee and the Soviet Ministry of Foreign Affairs to better understand the state of the Mexican left-wing forces and, above all, the Communist Party of Mexico. The author also demonstrates that he was of interest to Soviet strategists as someone who both had access to the Mexican ruling elite and enjoyed prestige in the Latin American and international labour and anti-war movements. He shows that Lombardo Toledano tried to benefit politically and materially from friendly relations with the USSR, while in return supporting Moscow in its struggle against its ideological opponents such as the Trotskyists and Maoists. The source base of the study comprises Lombardo Toledano’s polemical and propaganda writings, documents from Russian archives (the Russian State Archive of Social and Political History and the Russian State Archive of Contemporary History), declassified archival materials and published documents emanating from the U.S. Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency.

Prospects of cotton growing in the Caspian provinces of Iran in the assessments of officials of the Russian Empire on the eve and during the First World War

The article is devoted to the assessment of the prospects for the development of cotton growing in the Astarabad and Mazanderan provinces of Qajar Iran by the statesmen of the Russian Empire on the eve and during the First World War. The pre-war years were characterized by the intensification of Russian policy in the region. Among other things, with the active participation of the consulate in Astarabad, the formation of large Russian land ownership in the Caspian provinces and the development of peasant resettlement in the region is taking place. Cotton was considered as one of the main promising crops for breeding in the established farms, while it was the most interesting from the point of view of solving Russia’s strategic tasks to ensure the country’s resource independence. This problem is one of the little-studied in the existing historiography. On the basis of archival and published sources, the views of officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Resettlement Department on the problem of cotton growing are investigated. It is shown that due to the favorable climatic conditions of the region and its natural resources, the prospects for cotton cultivation for the Russian market looked promising. The connection in the ideas of the officials of the Resettlement Department of the success of cotton growing with the development of Russian peasant resettlement, the influence of the ideas of the "civilizing mission" of Russia on their considerations is also noted.

Diplomatic Geography of Xi Jinping: What the Statistics of the Chinese Leader’s Foreign Visits Reveal

This article seeks to delineate the foreign policy priorities of the People's Republic of China (PRC) by analyzing the international visits of Chinese President Xi Jinping. It posits that the evolution of a state's foreign policy can be traced through the foreign engagements of its leaders. This is particularly pertinent for China, where presidential visits are historically significant. The article offers an overview of China's traditional diplomacy and the foreign policy activities of Xi Jinping's predecessors. It concludes that Xi Jinping continues to undertake foreign visits in alignment with the «openness» policy, similar to his predecessors. Through a detailed analysis of the frequency and destinations of Xi Jinping's international visits over his two terms, the authors present a periodization of his foreign policy priorities. A comparative analysis is conducted on the visit frequencies of Xi Jinping and his predecessor, Hu Jintao, with adjustments for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. With Xi Jinping's re-election for a third term in 2023, this study provides insights into the nature and priorities of China's foreign policy for his current term and potential developments in the ongoing five-year political cycle. The findings indicate that from 2018 to 2023, Xi Jinping increased his visits to Southeast Asian countries, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam, while maintaining a consistent focus on Russia and the United States, akin to the approach under Jiang Zemin. The enduring partnership with Russia, spanning over two decades, corroborates the assertion that Sino-Russian relations are at their strongest in the history of bilateral ties. Data for this study were sourced from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, and materials from the Chinavitae and China Power research projects.

Indonesia-Japan Cooperation During Covid-19

The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus from the coronavirus family responsible for SARS and MERS, originated in Wuhan and quickly spread globally. International collaboration has been pivotal in the fight to achieve endemic control. Every nation has strived to acquire Covid-19 vaccines to safeguard their populations. For example, Indonesia forged a bilateral partnership with Japan to secure Covid-19 vaccines. Japan holds a strategic position as one of Indonesia's top five investors. Throughout the pandemic, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs maintained close communication with its Japanese counterpart to request support in obtaining the Covid-19 vaccine. This collaboration was made possible by Indonesia's independent and proactive foreign policy, which created extensive opportunities for cooperation during the pandemic. This study aims to present the outcomes of the Indonesia-Japan collaboration in procuring Covid-19 vaccines for Indonesia, showcasing the implementation of an independent and proactive foreign policy that can yield substantial benefits.

Analisis Pengendalian Internal atas Siklus Pelaporan pada Sistem Aplikasi Keuangan Tingkat Instansi (SAKTI)

This research was conducted to analyze the implementation of internal control over the financial reporting cycle at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, especially in the year of 2022 after all the ministries are obliged to implement the Agency Level Financial Application System referred as SAKTI. This research used a case study methodology with a qualitative descriptive data analysis on a single unit analysis by using the Committee of Sponsoring Organization of the Treadway Commission Internal Control-Integrated Framework (COSO) theoretical framework adjusted to PMK.17/PMK.09/2019. The data collection in this research was obtained through interviews, documentations and observations techniques which were processed and analyzed using the content analysis method using the Nvivo12 Pro application tool. The results show that the effectiveness of internal control plays an important role in the organization to present an accurate and accountable financial reports. The manual procedures in data recapitulation and journal record in SAKTI had an impact on the occurrence of human errors which causing the need of corrections to be made in the following periods. Based on the results, it is concluded that internal control over financial reporting cycle at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been implemented but it is still not effective, so it needs some improvements such as the need to digitize manual procedures in data recapitulation and journal interconnection in SAKTI and also optimize monitoring activities for accurate and accountable financial reports in the future.

Правила переселения народов Северо-Западного и Центрального Кавказа в Османскую им-перию в российских документах 2-й половины XIX века

The rules intended to regulate the emigration of peoples of the Northwestern and Central Caucasus to the Ottoman Empire in the 2nd half of the 19th century are contained mainly in the office doc-umentation of Russian military and administrative bodies: the administrations of the Caucasian Military District, the Main headquarters of the Caucasian Army, the headquarters of the troops of the Kuban region, the administrations of the chiefs of the Kabardin and Natukhai districts, the administrations of the Lower Kuban cordon line, the Maykop fortification, etc. (reports, letters, prescriptions, reviews, relations, conditions). The content of the paragraphs of many documents in this group is the same. The rules established for groups and individuals preparing to move to the Ottoman Empire a time frame, points for obtaining foreign passports and departure, routes and conditions for their movement in the Caucasus, conditions for their sale of livestock, etc. A num-ber of documents contain the conditions under which Russian merchants were obliged to transport Circassians from the Caucasian to the Ottoman coast of Black Sea. A number of documents also say that military officials demanded that their subordinates speed up the emigration of the Circas-sians. The prescription of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the envoy to the Ottoman Empire (dated July 19, 1861) contains the positions and mutual demands of the Ottoman and Rus-sian governments on the issue of the resettlement of Caucasian Muslims to the Ottoman Empire, as well as the some legal aspects of this process. The content of the rules for regulating the migration of peoples of the Northwestern Cauca-sus to the Ottoman Empire in subsequent periods, in general, coincides with the content of such rules of the late 50s – 60s XIX century.

INDONESIA'S FUTURE ACTING PRESIDENCY: MAINTAINING OR REPLACING THE NEW ORDER LEGACY

The interim president anticipates the vacancy of the office of president and vice president; Indonesia calls it ‘pelaksana tugas kepresidenan’, which is filled by the minister of home affairs, foreign affairs, and minister of defense. This article explores the two actors (bureaucrats and legitimacy) who become interim presidents in the constitutions of the world's countries. Next, the Indonesian arrangement and accompanying problems in the 1945 Constitution will be reviewed. This article is aided by a doctrinal research method with historical, legislative, and comparative constitutional approaches. Indonesia has its peculiarities compared to the constitutions of world countries because it applies a compound position as interim President adopted from the New Order legal products (Tap MPR VII/1973) without going through a decontextualisation process, so it still applies the old features (bureaucratic actors) with compound/collegial executive positions in the new constitutional structure that seeks to purify the presidential system. In addition, there are conditions that the 1945 Constitution still cannot resolve and that cause paralysis of governance. This article offers one solution—which could alleviate two specific problems simultaneously—and that is to make the Speaker of the House of Representatives (DPR) the acting President of the future.

Восточная Азия и АТР: акторы и задачи региональной архитектуры мироустройства

The publication presents materials from the Russian-Chinese round table East Asia and the Asia-Pacific: actors and tasks of the regional architecture of the world order, held on January 30, 2024. The event was attended by international relations scholars from the Far Eastern Federal University, the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Russia and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CAOS). During the round table, experts examined the specifics of regional architecture in the Asia-Pacific region and discussed the features of the conceptual views of the Russian Federation and China on international relations in Asia.

Миссионерские задачи первого российского консульства в Японии (1858–1865)

The article is devoted to the missionary activities of the first Russian consulate in Japan (1858-1865). The thesis stated is the importance of the missionary factor at the initial stage of Russian-Japanese relations. When writing the article there was implemented the analysis of research literature, letters and memos of the main participants of Russian-Japanese relations. The continuity of the consulate's activities with the diplomatic and missionary activities of E.V.Putyatin in the context of the foreign policy of the Russian Empire in China and Japan is revealed. The influence of Putyatin on the decisions of the Amur Committee, which was expressed in concrete proposals for the formation of the staff of the consulate and the directions of its work on the implementation of the missionary task, is considered. The thesis is proved that the first Consul I.A.Goshkevich possessed the necessary qualities of a diplomat and a missionary and therefore was able to fully realize the duties assigned to him. The assistance of the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Holy Synod and the Chief Prosecutor is noted. Letters from Putyatin and Hieromonk Nikolai (Kasatkin) to Goshkevich testify to the use of the hospital and school at the consulate for missionary purposes. The facts and sources considered in the article allow us to draw conclusions about the significance of the experience of the first consulate in Japan for understanding the problems of the theology of the mission: the missionary task of the consulate is assessed as the implementation by Putyatin of the religious and political modelfor Orthodoxy expansion; social and educational activities - as a created missionary environment (macromission). The close connection between the missionary aspect and the solution of foreign policy goals (the establishment of good-neighborly relations between the two countries) is shown, where the state, participating in the spread of the Kingdom of Christ, performed a providential task in the context of the entire Christian history.

Contestation from Below: Status and Revisionism in Hierarchy

Abstract Existing scholarship suggests that rising powers can become revisionist powers when they are dissatisfied with their status. What causes such dissatisfaction? Conventional wisdom holds that rising powers become dissatisfied when established powers refuse to recognize them as equals. However, if status informs patterns of superiority and inferiority, then rising powers can also become dissatisfied when smaller states do not defer to them. In fact, I argue that there is a life cycle as to how status dissatisfaction develops: status disputes between rising powers and smaller states can be especially frequent early in the power transition, before status disputes between rising powers and established powers become more prevalent. Through text analysis of an original dataset of statements from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1978 to 2018, supplemented by survey and archival evidence, I demonstrate that contestations from smaller states trigger the majority of China’s status grievances, and China-smaller states status disputes are especially prevalent early on. Thus, status-driven revisionism can emerge via bottom-up processes, and it can happen earlier than currently theorized. My analysis highlights the agency of smaller states in shaping power transitions and hierarchies, as well as how and when the US–China competition unfolds.

Features of preposition usage in the diplomatic sub-style of the Russian and Chinese languages

The article is devoted to the use of prepositions in the diplomatic language of the Russian and Chinese languages. The subject of the study is the structural and semantic characteristics of prepositional constructions typical of the diplomatic substyle. The main goal is a comparative analysis of the preposition use as one of the diplomatic substyle linguistic features in the languages under consideration and the identification of their features in terms of their structure and meaning. To achieve this goal, methods of comparative analysis, statistical analysis and component analysis were used. Bilingual diplomatic documents from the official websites of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia and China over the period from 1994 to 2023 were selected as research material. As a result of the study, we conclude that prepositions are actively used in both Russian and Chinese diplomatic styles, but their structures and meanings differ. We have found that from the point of view of the constructions’ meanings, both languages possess prepositional constructions to express the meanings of goals, methods and bases. However, in the Chinese language there is a special group of prepositions expressing the subject or object of an action, while in the Russian language such meanings are conveyed using case forms.

Changing and yet the same? Italy’s foreign policy ideas and National Role Conceptions in a populist age

ABSTRACT The foreign policy objectives of nations typically stem from their perceptions of global dynamics, often shaped by specific National Role Conceptions (NRCs). This study considers these conceptions as articulated in the programmatic speeches of Italy’s Prime Ministers and Foreign Affairs Ministers from 2016 to 2022, a period marked by the governance of five administrations, some supported by populist parties. The primary objective is to discern the NRCs underpinning Italy’s foreign-policy objectives and strategies, aiming to identify significant departures from the approaches of previous governments. Additionally, the research aims to ascertain whether recent Italian foreign policy exhibits traits characteristic of populist agendas as discussed in the International Relations literature. The key finding reveals notable consistency, reflecting internal coherence and continuity in Italy’s foreign-policy framework. Populist narratives, it appears, remain largely confined to the domain of rhetoric, exerting minimal influence on actual foreign policy directives. However, this continuity also implies a limited capacity to adapt to the rapidly evolving global landscape, potentially undermining the efficacy of Italy’s foreign policy in the future.

A Pragmatic Study: Investigating The Meaning of Social Deixis in Spoken Discourse

This research aims to investigate the types of social deixis and analyze their social meaning in a speech context. This research used a qualitative method. The participant of this research is Retno Marsudi’s utterances, who the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia. The data was collected from YouTube and a transcript from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia’s website. The data collected was analyzed using qualitative analysis, where the data was divided into five types of deixis and then narrowed down into two types of social deixis. After the data narrowed down, the researchers analyzed the meaning of the social deixis based on contextual and sociocultural theory. The results of the analysis conclude that there are two types of social deixis: 1) relational social deixis and 2) place social deixis with three data of relational and one data of place social deixis. The social meaning of social deixis imply profesionalism, social status, familiarity, and formality.

Financial Oversight of The Implementation of The Annual Sub -Budget Appropriations for Iraqi Diplomatic Missions and Representations

The importance of the study lied in two aspects, one scientific and the other practical. In the scientific aspect, the researched worked to enrich scientific research in the field of financial control over the activity of Iraqi diplomatic missions and representations, and raising the subject of studying diplomatic missions and representations in its various aspects. As for the practical aspect, the study addressed the various aspects of financial control over the implementation of financial control over the annual subsidiary budget of Iraqi diplomatic missions and representations, the responsibilities of the supervisory bodies to uncover financial violations, and the role of the administrative bodies concerned with holding accountable those who exceed financial allocations and deterring them. The study aimed to clarify the mechanisms by which financial control is carried out on the implementation of the annual sub-budget appropriations of the Iraqi diplomatic missions and representations, to avoid serious financial deviations and violations that lead to obstructing the work of the diplomatic missions and representations from performing their role in a manner consistent with the tasks and duties entrusted to them, and to attempt to alert the competent authorities responsible for diplomatic activity to the importance of financial control, and to grant broader powers and authorities to the oversight bodies to improve the effectiveness and performance of the Iraqi diplomatic missions and representations. The problem of the study was represented in the multiplicity of oversight bodies on the implementation of the annual sub-budget appropriations of the Iraqi diplomatic missions and representations, represented by parliamentary oversight and the oversight of the independent bodies, in addition to the oversight of the Audit and Internal Oversight Department in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The multiplicity of oversight bodies leads to an overlap in the oversight powers of these bodies, which negatively affects the implementation of the annual sub-budget appropriations of the Iraqi diplomatic missions and representations. The scientific methodology that the researcher relied on to complete this study is the analytical method, which aimed to analyze the legal texts issued to organize the mechanisms of disposing of public funds and methods of monitoring them, supported by analyzing the correspondence of the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs to diplomatic missions and representations to complete the benefit. The researcher decided to divide it into two sections, and allocated the first section to the concept of financial control, which included defining financial control and explaining its importance and the objectives sought from practicing it, while in the second section , this study addressed the types of financial control, which included the types of control in terms of their connection to work and purpose, the types of control in terms of the subject, the types of control in terms of the party that practices it, and the types of control in terms of the time of its practice.

Role of the Russian Spiritual Mission in China in Training of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Officials

Activity of the Russian Spiritual Mission in Beijing helped to strengthen the relationships between Russia and China. The history of the Russian spiritual mission in Beijing is represented by a wide range of publications of Soviet and church researchers. At the same time, the civil service of the mission students was out of the scope of the study. The purpose of this work is to conduct a comprehensive study of the organizational and legal basis of the institute of apprenticeship of the Russian spiritual mission in Beijing, to determine the role of the Russian spiritual mission in the training of officials of the Board, later the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The right to send the mission to Beijing regularly was agreed with both Russia and China in Khakhta Treaty in 1727. In addition, the treaty stipulated the sending of four students to Beijing. The students studied the Chinese and the Manchu languages. Students had to be engaged in scientific activities. Legal status of the students of the Mission was defined by regulations on civil servants. Production to higher ranks for special merits was carried out by the Mission Council with the approval of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A student returning from Beijing was determined to a further place of state civil service as it was decided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As a whole, apprenticeship as a part of the Russian spiritual mission became a factor of successful career growth and a certain social lift for many students of the mission. The author concludes that the institute created under the spiritual mission was an effective mechanism for training highly qualified specialists for diplomatic activities.

RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN DISPUTES OVER SOVIET LEGACY AFTER 1991. BULGARIAN DIPLOMATIC PERSPECTIVE

The article explores the Russian-Ukrainian Cold War and Russian-Ukrainian disputes about the Soviet legacy after 1991 through the prism of Bulgarian diplomatic analysis. The main source material is unpublished documents from the archives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Bulgaria, as well as published archives - the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Centre, and the American National Security Archive. Thematic circles focus on the Crimean Knot, Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet, and the fate of Soviet nuclear weapons. The analytical forecasts of Bulgarian diplomats are examined in two main vectors: geopolitical and ideological.