Military Pressure Research Articles

Compellence by denial against armed groups: UN peacekeeping in Ituri, the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract Peace operations are often deployed to countries where conflicts are effectively ongoing, with mandates to protect civilians and provide security. With the authorisation to use force beyond self-defence, peacekeepers are expected to exert military pressure on armed groups to induce them to abandon violence and join peace processes. Such an approach falls in the domain of compellence. Given that peace operations struggle to adapt to this new expectation, it is imperative to find effective ways of compelling armed groups. While studies on compellence agree on the effectiveness of denial-type pressure, its specific forms are highly context-dependent. What is the most effective way to achieve denial against armed groups in the context of peace operations? There are four such approaches: attrition, stronghold neutralisation, decapitation, and counter-coercion negation. A case study of peacekeeping by the United Nation in Ituri reveals that stronghold neutralisation and counter-coercion negation were especially important for compelling rebels to disarm. As existing studies have not examined the effectiveness of specific forms of denial in peace operations, the finding contributes significantly to the literature on compellence and peace operations.

Navigating the labyrinth: how political traditions and geostrategic interests shape U.S. intervention in the civil-military relations of developing countries

ABSTRACT This research examines patterns and factors influencing U.S. civil-military relations interventions in developing countries. Drawing on theories of new clientelism and geopolitics, it proposes developing states’ political traditions and U.S. geostrategic interests jointly shape U.S. intervention policies through an interactive effect. Quantitative analysis of U.S. military assistance and engagement data across 97 developing countries (1990–2020) supports key hypotheses: U.S. civil-military intervention is higher in military-dominated polities and states of major geostrategic interest, with military political traditions amplifying geostrategic factors. Case studies of Egypt and India further reveal differentiated pathways of U.S. military influence across varying political systems. The findings provide new explanations of U.S. foreign military behavior, analytical perspectives on Third World military diplomacy, and insights for developing countries in responding to great power military pressures while preserving sovereignty and security.

The rise and fall of paper money in Yuan China, 1260–1368

AbstractFollowing the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime to introduce a precious metal standard and deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, prices, warfare, imperial grants, taxation, natural disasters, and population, we find that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted. We show that inflation was high in the early and late periods of the dynasty but remained moderate for nearly half a century. We find that military pressure, particularly civil war, generated fiscal demands that led to the over‐issuance of money. By contrast, natural disasters and imperial grants did not trigger the over‐issue of money. Warfare was much more likely to increase paper money issues under the fiat standard than during the silver standard period.

Российские медиа как инструмент «Мягкой силы»

The term «soft power» was introduced by American political scientist Joseph Nye and means the ability of a state to achieve desired results through attraction and persuasion, rather than through coercion or military pressure. The paper examines the main stages of the evolution of the concept of «soft power», starting from the Cold War period and up to the modern problems of the information age. Examples of the use of «soft power» in other countries, such as China and South Korea, are considered. The author pays special attention to the role of Russian media, such as the RT TV channel and the Sputnik agency, in creating a positive image of Russia in the international arena, analyzes their activities in providing alternative points of view on international events and covering Russian life. The article highlights the difficulties of using the «soft power» tool, but despite limited resources, Russia uses media and cultural diplomacy to promote its interests abroad, while facing external and internal problems.

Development of a graphical user interface for automatic separation of human voice from Doppler ultrasound audio in diving experiments.

Doppler ultrasound (DU) is used in decompression research to detect venous gas emboli in the precordium or subclavian vein, as a marker of decompression stress. This is of relevance to scuba divers, compressed air workers and astronauts to prevent decompression sickness (DCS) that can be caused by these bubbles upon or after a sudden reduction in ambient pressure. Doppler ultrasound data is graded by expert raters on the Kisman-Masurel or Spencer scales that are associated to DCS risk. Meta-analyses, as well as efforts to computer-automate DU grading, both necessitate access to large databases of well-curated and graded data. Leveraging previously collected data is especially important due to the difficulty of repeating large-scale extreme military pressure exposures that were conducted in the 70-90s in austere environments. Historically, DU data (Non-speech) were often captured on cassettes in one-channel audio with superimposed human speech describing the experiment (Speech). Digitizing and separating these audio files is currently a lengthy, manual task. In this paper, we develop a graphical user interface (GUI) to perform automatic speech recognition and aid in Non-speech and Speech separation. This constitutes the first study incorporating speech processing technology in the field of diving research. If successful, it has the potential to significantly accelerate the reuse of previously-acquired datasets. The recognition task incorporates the Google speech recognizer to detect the presence of human voice activity together with corresponding timestamps. The detected human speech is then separated from the audio Doppler ultrasound within the developed GUI. Several experiments were conducted on recently digitized audio Doppler recordings to corroborate the effectiveness of the developed GUI in recognition and separations tasks, and these are compared to manual labels for Speech timestamps. The following metrics are used to evaluate performance: the average absolute differences between the reference and detected Speech starting points, as well as the percentage of detected Speech over the total duration of the reference Speech. Results have shown the efficacy of the developed GUI in Speech/Non-speech component separation.

China’s Perceptions of Russia during the Ukraine Conflict

The ongoing Russian military operation in Ukraine since February 2022 has presented significant challenges to China's foreign and security policies, as well as its economic and technological ties with the West. Initially, China refrained from criticizing Russia's military actions and adopted a "neutral" or "independent" stance in response to Western criticism. However, China was taken aback by the protracted nature of the conflict and Russia's inability to successfully conclude its military operation. This raised concerns within China, considering its own situation of potentially reunifying with Taiwan through military means if necessary. While there are distinctions between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan, the initial speculation of China conducting military operations against Taiwan has gradually diminished, although military pressure on Taiwan remains. The conflict in Ukraine has also caused internal divisions within China and has had an impact on its relations with the West, which are crucial for China's rise on the global stage. This article aims to examine China's interests and positions regarding the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, the implications for its relations with Russia, and the opportunities and challenges that China faces in the current situation. The article employs an inductive approach, analyzing China's predicaments at four levels: perceptions within the decision-making bodies of the Communist Party, the foreign ministry, think-tanks, and the media community. It argues that in conjunction with China's economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian military operation has prompted China to seriously contemplate how to safeguard its national interests, particularly with regard to Taiwan and its strategic objectives of attaining a prominent global position. These considerations carry medium to long-term implications for the evolving regional and global orders. In conclusion, the article briefly discusses the implications of these developments on India, shedding light on the broader regional dynamics influenced by China's response to the Ukrainian conflict.

1946. The “Straits Crisis” as Reflected in the Intelligence Reports of the Romanian Military Attaché to the Republic of Türkiye Office’s Secretary

"The “Straits Question” has long been a factor of tension in the Black Sea area, because of Russia and later the Soviet Union’s desire to control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, mainly with the aim of turning the Black Sea into a “Russian lake”. After the end of the Second World War, in full ascension as a victorious country and in the tradition of Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union tried to take control of the Straits through political and military pressure to the detriment of Türkiye, although the Soviet Union had signed the Montreux Convention in 1936, which established the predominant role of the Republic of Türkiye in the control of naval traffic in the Straits, especially in wartime. The atmosphere so heavy with tension from the autumn of 1946, when the outbreak of a war between the USSR and Türkiye seemed inevitable, is reflected in the intelligence reports prepared by the secretary of the Office of the Romanian military attaché to the Republic of Türkiye. The documents include the first defence measures taken by Türkiye at a political and military level, the effects of the “Straits Crisis” on the Turkish population and the beginning of the process of Türkiye’s rapprochement with the USA and the Great Britain, a process that ended with the accession of the Republic of Türkiye to NATO in 1952."

1946. „Criza strâmtorilor” reflectată în rapoartele informative ale secretarului biroului atașatului militar român în Republica Turcia

"The “Straits Question” has long been a factor of tension in the Black Sea area, because of Russia and later the Soviet Union’s desire to control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, mainly with the aim of turning the Black Sea into a “Russian lake”. After the end of the Second World War, in full ascension as a victorious country and in the tradition of Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union tried to take control of the Straits through political and military pressure to the detriment of Türkiye, although the Soviet Union had signed the Montreux Convention in 1936, which established the predominant role of the Republic of Türkiye in the control of naval traffic in the Straits, especially in wartime. The atmosphere so heavy with tension from the autumn of 1946, when the outbreak of a war between the USSR and Türkiye seemed inevitable, is reflected in the intelligence reports prepared by the secretary of the Office of the Romanian military attaché to the Republic of Türkiye. The documents include the first defence measures taken by Türkiye at a political and military level, the effects of the “Straits Crisis” on the Turkish population and the beginning of the process of Türkiye’s rapprochement with the USA and the Great Britain, a process that ended with the accession of the Republic of Türkiye to NATO in 1952."

Overtone Window. Practical Application of the Theory of Social and Economic Mechanisms

The article elaborates the conceptual material published earlier in the journal (Russia has Spread its Wings. Phenomenology of Developing the Global System Contradiction of Our Era// Vestnik of the Russian Plekhanov University of Economics. – 2022. – Vol. 19. – N 5 (125). – pp. 44-53), which requires a specific approach to resolving vital problems facing Russia today. It is caused by unprecedented after the World War 2 institutional challenges launched by the collective West that aim at destruction of the Russian state system, at elimination of Russian identity, at eradication of Russia as it is, as a nation. Earlier the authors revealed specific features of the current stage in developing the global system contradiction ‘creditors – debtors’ and the origin of its sharp phase in view of diverse forms of total hybrid and informational war. Within the context of the present publication the authors characterize a sharp phase of developing the global system contradiction in the current era. Recognition of social and economic contradiction as a global phenomenon of our age was confirmed in the speech by President of Russia V.V.Putin at the plenary session of the 19th annual forum of the International Discussion Club ‘Valdai’: ‘…This forms the principle contradiction of the current epoch… the situation is revolutionary.’ In order to apply and promote social technologies which were chosen and announced a political doctrine the US and UK elites devised and started a keen, rather inventive, cynical propaganda machine, i.e. the machine of lie. The global start of the machine took place on September 11, 2001 that can be called the beginning of the World War 3 – the hybrid war. It was followed by informational and power attacks on countries and nations, peoples of the Earth innocent towards the US and UK. Anglo-Saxon elites shale public opinion in the format of cash-masters’ ideological paradigm, develop and implement mechanisms for transforming public opinion, use the doctrine ‘Overtone Window’, the manipulation matrix of political and social management. Massed informational flow is used to form a ‘smoke-screen’, which can hide true grounds and intentions of architects of global predomination. Military pressure on thoughts, souls and bodies of people, first of all bloody slaughters unleashed by the US, are meant to disrupt foundations of humanistic civilization and secure global predomination over the world and cash masters’ control. Russia has accepted the challenge. Today Russia is facing numerous crucial problems, which must be resolved by all means.

Роман-антиутопия Энтони Троллопа «Установленный срок»: взгляд на настоящее через будущее

The article analyzes one of the late novels of the English writer, which paints a very pessimistic picture of the future, moving the reader to 1980 and to the fictional country of Britannula, whose parliament at the dawn of independence from Britain adopted a law according to which every resident of the republic who has reached the age of 68 years is obliged to undergo voluntary euthanasia, so as not to burden a happy and a prosperous country with unnecessary material and other expenses and thus contribute to the prosperity of the motherland. However, the practice of implementing the law is difficult, since some representatives of society oppose its conduct and seek help from the former metropolis, which suspends not only the operation of the law by military pressure, but also colonizes Britannula again. The narrative is constructed as a manuscript of a book by the deposed president of the republic, in which he, a fanatic of such bringing everyone to happiness and prosperity, gives his interpretation of events. The work is a futuristic dystopian novel in which the genre and narrative experiments of the writer and his inherent psychologism and irony coexist in an interesting and original way, but not always successfully.

Israel’s Struggle against Palestinian Terrorism in Judea and Samaria, 2000–2023

Beginning in 1994, Israel has faced several waves of terrorism as a result of the Oslo Accords, which transferred control the Gaza Strip and parts of Judea and Samaria from Israel to the Palestinian Authority. This article will review the security history of the violent confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria from the signing of the first Oslo Accords, through the Second Intifada (late 2000), and until August 2023. The purpose of the article is to review, analyze, and present the differences in Israel’s security conduct over the years, and to draw conclusions about successes and efforts to reduce Palestinian terrorism from Judea and Samaria. The article, which is divided into two sections, analyzes changes in Israeli perceptions and conduct vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority at the political and military levels. The study shows how Israel gradually increased its actions and military might against terrorists in the Palestinian Authority from the beginning of the Second Intifada, and Palestinian terrorism decreased in 2004 and 2005. Accordingly, the study shows that the more Israel increased its military pressure and sought to defeat terrorism, the less terrorism there was against it in terms of both quality and quantity.

Israel’s Struggle against Palestinian Terrorism in Judea and Samaria, 2000–2023

Beginning in 1994, Israel has faced several waves of terrorism as a result of the Oslo Accords, which transferred control the Gaza Strip and parts of Judea and Samaria from Israel to the Palestinian Authority. This article will review the security history of the violent confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria from the signing of the first Oslo Accords, through the Second Intifada (late 2000), and until August 2023. The purpose of the article is to review, analyze, and present the differences in Israel’s security conduct over the years, and to draw conclusions about successes and efforts to reduce Palestinian terrorism from Judea and Samaria. The article, which is divided into two sections, analyzes changes in Israeli perceptions and conduct vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority at the political and military levels. The study shows how Israel gradually increased its actions and military might against terrorists in the Palestinian Authority from the beginning of the Second Intifada, and Palestinian terrorism decreased in 2004 and 2005. Accordingly, the study shows that the more Israel increased its military pressure and sought to defeat terrorism, the less terrorism there was against it in terms of both quality and quantity.

Peacekeeping, Mediation, and the Conclusion of Local Ceasefires in Non-State Conflicts

This article theorizes on how military and civilian components of peacekeeping operations contribute to the conclusion of local ceasefires in non-state conflicts involving armed opposition groups or communal groups. A mediation-based logic suggests that civilian peacekeeping staff can provide technical support aimed at resolving the conflict issues and engage with state officials to promote peace. A capabilities-based logic suggest that military peacekeepers can provide security during the negotiations, arrange logistics, and put military pressure on the conflict parties, which all should make the conclusion of a ceasefire more likely. The analysis supports both the capabilities-based and the mediation-based logic. An instrumental variable estimation helps to account for endogeneity. This article contributes to the literature on peacekeeping, mediation, and ceasefires through shifting the focus to non-state conflicts.

Particularitățile includerii Basarabiei și a nordului Bucovinei în componența Uniunii Sovietice

"The author considers a set of military propaganda measures taken by Soviet troops to seize the territories of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. Regular units of the USSR Armed Forces which were united in a specially created Southern Front, whose troops were concentrated on the border with Romania, were used to achieve this goal. On June 28, 1940, Soviet troops crossed the Dniester and entered Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. Romanian units were ordered to withdraw in an organized manner. The Red Army exceeded the agreed rate of evacuation of Romanian troops, violated the line of demarcation, which led to local incidents. There were cases of disarmament of Romanian soldiers. There were armed clashes, a result of which were loses of both sides, including killed. In turn, the Red Army also felt hostility, encountering minefields, anti-tank barriers, trenches, mined or dismantled railways and bridges. Both Soviet and Romanian military units took certain military-administrative measures against the civilian population, which had different motives and forms of manifestation. The low level of morale of the retreating Romanian army led to the disintegration of entire military units, whose soldiers dropped their weapons and fled home. At the same time, there were serious violations of military discipline among the Red Army, for which the soldiers were punished, including the death penalty. Immediately after the Red Army entered Bessarabia and the Northern part of Bukovina, a huge Soviet propaganda machine began to operate. A large number of newspapers and special literature were distributed among the population and soldiers; and posters and slogans were hung in the streets and houses. Politicians of the Red Army organized rallies and demonstrations to awaken in the souls of the Bessarabians and Bukovinians “love for the liberators and a sense of confidence in the Soviet authority”. The annexation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina by the Soviet Union in June-July, 1940 can be considered a well-thought-out and carefully prepared political-diplomatic and military-propaganda campaign. These territories were occupied by the Red Army according to all the rules of military art (all components of the military operation were used: military force, local military pressure, military intelligence, propaganda and propaganda service), thanks to which the USSR achieved its goal. "

Catalysts of Cyber Threats on the Example of Visegrad Group Countries

AbstractThe article deals with cyber incidents that were recorded in the area of the V4 countries. It is important for the discussed topic to extract certain factors and with their help to characterise the conducted cyberattacks in terms of political motivations. The analysis tries to prove the existence of politically motivated cyberattacks. This, in turn, helps to determine the consequences of such cyber incidents. Moreover, the scale and magnitude of the cyberattack can be information to determine the strategic maturity and cyber capabilities of the adversary. Thus, the incidents that have occurred allow a cyberattack to be characterised in political terms and thus have value as information about ongoing conflicts in cyberspace that either reflect reality or foreshadow actions yet to come in the real world. Cyber operations can also be used as a tool to build a sphere of influence and exert political, economic and military pressure on a particular state.

Măsurile pregătitoare politico-diplomatice și militar-propagandistice ale U.R.S.S. pentru anexarea Basarabiei și a nordului Bucovinei (II)

"A significant turning point in relations between the Soviet Union and Romania was associated with the incorporation of Bessarabia and northern part of Bukovina into the USSR, which took place in the context of Soviet-German rapprochement. To this end, the Soviet leadership developed a set of preparatory political-diplomatic and military-propaganda measures. Soviet political and diplomatic actions were based on fundamental military preparations. In order to prepare and further joining Bessarabia and the northern part of Bukovina to the USSR, the Southern Front was created on the basis of the Kyiv Special and Odessa military districts. Army General Georgy Zhukov was appointed as a commander. The General Staff of the Red Army developed two variants of actions by Soviet troops. The first one provided for measures in case the Romanian government would not agree to the peaceful transfer of Bessarabia and Bukovina to the USSR. The second variant was an action plan in case of a voluntary retreat of Romanian troops west of the Prut. The first option was taken as the base. As early as June 26, 1940, on the border with Romania, the Soviet command concentrated 32 infantry, 2 motorized infantry, 6 cavalry divisions, 11 tank, 3 airborne brigades, 16 artillery regiments of the commander-in-chief’s reserve, 14 corps artillery regiments and 4 separate artillery divisions. In the main areas of the offensive, more than a triple advantage in manpower and means was provided. At the same time, for the purpose of ideological support, a huge propaganda apparatus was prepared to work with the population. In accordance with the Directive of the Main Political Directorate of the Red Army № 0140 (June 21, 1940), a large number of political workers were sent to the disposal of the Southern Front. One month before the start of the military operation, all employees of party and Soviet organizations were considered as mobilized. After appropriate training, they were ready for further activities as editorial staff, propagandists and agitators. Concert brigades and drama theatre groups were organized for the cultural service of the population. There were selected mobile library, gramophone records, and films. Book-mobile was arranged; everything necessary for the publication in Romanian newspaper was completed and provided with everything necessary. Due to the diligence of all these preparatory acts, the territories of Bessarabia and the northern part of Bukovina were occupied by the Red Army according to all the rules of military art (all elements of military operation were used: military force, local military pressure, military intelligence and counterintelligence, agitation and propaganda), thanks to which the USSR could reach its purpose. "

Chinese autocracy promotion towards Myanmar and Thailand

In its autocracy promotion towards Myanmar’s and Thailand’s military regimes, China especially applied incentives but also blackmailing practices. However, China also supported hybrid regimes. Then, China always selected soft and not hard power; military pressure has been indirect. There were strong emulative processes of both Myanmar and Thailand. Chinese pragmatism promoted both options since, if China opposed hybrid regimes, this could cause the defeat of the military and the possible victory of pro-Western and anti-Chinese political actors. In order to avoid this result, Beijing governments adopted a more flexible autocracy promotion, reflecting a real-politik approach to foreign policy, which allowed to preserve Chinese diplomatic interests.

Main directions of development of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus

A fundamental assumption in the context of potential development trends of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus is their close relations and far-reaching cooperation with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Accordingly, this paper presents the Belarusian-Russian relations and dependencies that are taking place within the framework of the progressive military integration of the two countries. Among other things, the structural and functional changes taking place in the Belarusian army were presented. Belarusian-Russian military cooperation, including the regular manoeuvres codenamed „Zapad”, serves the combat coordination of both armies, and ultimately aims at the incorporation of the Belarusian Armed Forces. In fact, Belarusian modernization programs result from specific integration efforts and serve the purpose of achieving thegoals of Russian security policy. The modernization and supply of equipment and weapons are largely based on domestic production, which is a continuation of the solutions of Soviet technical thought and is aimed at adapting the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to the needs defined by the Russian Federation. The directions of development presented in this paper and the range of capabilities of the Belarusian army in favorable conditions from Moscow’s point of view will allow for the transition from military pressure to potential real Belarusian-Russian military actions in the western operational direction.

How are Hybrid Terms Discussed in the Recent Scholarly Literature?

Hybrid threats range from cyber-attacks on critical systems to disruption of critical services (such as energy and financial services), influencing public confidence, and polarization within society. Awareness, resilience, and response to threats are central to countering hybrid threats. Hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon, it has existed throughout the history of warfare, however, hybrid threat and hybrid warfare were re-defined as the western concept, as discussed in this paper, in 2014. Securing vital functions of society, i.e., managing overall security includes preparing for threats, and managing and recovering from disruptions and emergencies. Energy policy, which relies on cross-border energy transmission infrastructures (e.g., Russian gas line imports to Europe), can be a tool to influence foreign policy (Geo-economics). Trolls and cyber weapons can be used to impact information and elections, and their activity are based on supranational Information Technology (IT) infrastructure. The vital functions of society are prime targets for political, economic, and military pressure from external actors. Hybrid warfare deliberately blurs the boundaries between peacetime and wartime, which makes it difficult for targeted organizations and countries to plan appropriate and timely countermeasures. The threat of hybrid disruptions can be addressed with resilience. Multifaceted hybrid threats require planning and testing one’s defensive possibilities, so that the various actors of society will be able to respond to possible hybrid attacks and commit all areas of society for an effective defence. Identifying and understanding hybrid warfare is challenging. Situation awareness is a prerequisite, so societies and their organization can meet these challenges.

Military Management in the Mid-Early Kingdoms of Viet People: Archaeology of Knowledge

The constant military pressure and foreign threats over Viet people in the age of Imperial China, encourages researcher to find out how Viet people implemented military management. Researcher uses archaeology of knowledge as knife analysis to dig into the time of resistance against Ming Dynasty and Qin Dynasty. In military management, guerrilla warfare has been practiced at the time of Le Thai To in facing Ai Lao by stalking them from the mountains and forests of Thanh Hoa, and in facing Ming Dynasty, that the Viet guerrillas forced the Ming Dynasty troops to retreat. Guerrilla warfare also has been practiced as early as at the time of An Duong Vuong in facing Qin Dynasty, the Viet people were in the forest with animals, no one allowed themselves to be captured by the Qin army. Implementing of guerrilla warfare gave a fruitful result, the Viet people managed to killed General Do Thu and destroyed the Qin army. This research concludes that guerrilla warfare was used by Viet people as the main part of military management, specifically in facing constant military pressure and foreign threats. Such military management played a vital role in achieving important milestones in the history of Viet people. Keywords: Archaeology of knowledge, military management, guerrilla warfare, Viet.