Military Decision Research Articles

Unveiling military strategic narratives on social media: a civil–military relations perspective

ABSTRACT Although the armed forces’ social media narratives on operations can significantly influence public support, the rationale behind their decision-making process remains unclear. Drawing on civil–military relations theory, we explain the logic behind military decision-making in crafting these narratives. We argue that the strategic narratives of the armed forces are deeply influenced by their relationship with society. The nature of this relationship determines how the military balances two essential imperatives: promoting the armed forces’ representation within the parent society and highlighting the distinct characteristics of the armed forces. This balance influences the extent to which operations are narrated (circulation or non-circulation) within the overall narration and how they are presented. We test our argument by analysing the Italian Army’s Twitter communication. Tweets are analysed using an unsupervised LDA topic model on the entire corpus, manual coding of a subset on international missions and a mixed-method analysis. Our article contributes to the scholarship on public opinion and war, using an original methodology to analyse the strategic narratives of an overlooked actor. It also contributes to civil–military relations, suggesting an innovative method for studying the relationship between the armed forces and society.

Selection of Military Armored Vehicle Using Fuzzy EDAS method

Military armored vehicles are specially designed and equipped for defense and security activities. During military operations, the right vehicle selection is of vital importance for the success of the operation. This problem examined 5 different alternative military armored vehicles for operational and logistic success using the criteria Engine Power, Dimensions, Fire Power Range, Gradeability, and Armor Thickness. In military decision problems, some alternatives probably need to be evaluated regarding more than one conflicting criterion. The decision among these alternatives will usually involve other strategic-level decisions. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) refers to making decisions in such a situation. Are there any methods and techniques available to solve MCDM problems? The evaluation according to distance from average solution (EDAS) method is a multi-criteria decision-making method whose effectiveness has been tested in other problem areas in the literature. In this study, we use the EDAS method to address the problem of military armored vehicle selection in a fuzzy environment. While a Type-1 fuzzy set is used in the fuzzy EDAS method, trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are preferred for military expert evaluation. The results of this study show that the fuzzy EDAS method is effective.

Formation of a heterogeneous group of UAVS with a reasonable number of false and real drones

The subject of scientific research is the joint use of false and real unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as part of a heterogeneous group of UAVs to perform military tasks. This article aimsto determine the appropriate number of false and real drones (UAVs) as part of a heterogeneous group of UAVs to ensure that a certain number of real UAVs can fly to targets with the aim of further reliable target destruction. The scientific task is to develop a methodology for determining the appropriate number of false drones in a heterogeneous group of UAVs, considering the diversity of UAVs included in the UAV group. To achieve the goals of scientificresearch, partial scientific tasks were solved. The joint use of false drones as part of a UAV group to defeat targets with a given degree of damage was formalized. The formalization was carried out taking into account two possible cases of use: a) when the enemy has a sufficient number of means to destroy the entire group of UAVs; b) when the enemy has an insufficient number of means to destroy the entire UAV group. A mathematical model for determining the optimal composition of false and real drones (UAVs) as parts of a heterogeneous group of UAVs has been developed, which will allow to fulfill the task of defeating enemy targets with the desired degree of reliability. A program code has been developed that simplifies the mathematical calculations in the presented mathematical model and allows it to be used in the process of making an appropriate military decision. An algorithm to find the numbers of real and false UAVs in a heterogeneous group of UAVs is proposed. The obtained formulas and algorithms were verified by computer simulation using the Monte Carlo method. Methods. The mathematical model is based on combinatorial methods of probability theory. Programming for calculating analytical formulas and computer modeling of the Monte Carlo method was carried out based on the R computer language. The following results were obtained. A multifunctional algorithm is presented: on one hand, its application makes it possible to determine the optimal number of false UAVs in a heterogeneous group of UAVs to ensure that the required number of real UAVs reach the target, and on the other hand, to determine the predicted loss level of real UAVs in a heterogeneous group of UAVs when using a certain number of false drones.Conclusions. The availability of the developed mathematical model, algorithm, and program code makes it possible to predict the possible results of the combat use of heterogeneous groups of UAVs based on the initial parameters and to substantiate recommendations for a possible composition of such groups.

The Information Cocoons in Military Decision Making and Strategies for Coping

As we all know, the information cocoon has a broad impact on people's basic cognitive abilities such as memory, decision-making, and judgment. This article first extends the concept of information cocoons to the field of command and decision-making behavior, and studies the harm and response measures of information cocoons to command and decision-making. The paper first elaborates on the causes of information cocoons, including technical factors, organizational structure factors, and psychological factors. Secondly, the harm of information cocoons to command decision-making was analyzed, including hindering accurate judgment of the battlefield situation, increasing battlefield risks, and increasing the likelihood of battlefield losses.Then, corresponding measures were proposed, including the application of technical means and optimization of organizational structure and decision-making processes. Finally, the importance of improving psychological resilience and leadership abilities was emphasized. The research conclusion of this article is helpful for command decision-makers to effectively overcome the challenges brought by the information cocoon to command decision-making and improve the correctness of decision-making.

Military Image Captioning for Low-Altitude UAV or UGV Perspectives

Low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), which boast high-resolution imaging and agile maneuvering capabilities, are widely utilized in military scenarios and generate a vast amount of image data that can be leveraged for textual intelligence generation to support military decision making. Military image captioning (MilitIC), as a visual-language learning task, provides innovative solutions for military image understanding and intelligence generation. However, the scarcity of military image datasets hinders the advancement of MilitIC methods, especially those based on deep learning. To overcome this limitation, we introduce an open-access benchmark dataset, which was termed the Military Objects in Real Combat (MOCO) dataset. It features real combat images captured from the perspective of low-altitude UAVs or UGVs, along with a comprehensive set of captions. Furthermore, we propose a novel encoder–augmentation–decoder image-captioning architecture with a map augmentation embedding (MAE) mechanism, MAE-MilitIC, which leverages both image and text modalities as a guiding prefix for caption generation and bridges the semantic gap between visual and textual data. The MAE mechanism maps both image and text embeddings onto a semantic subspace constructed by relevant military prompts, and augments the military semantics of the image embeddings with attribute-explicit text embeddings. Finally, we demonstrate through extensive experiments that MAE-MilitIC surpasses existing models in performance on two challenging datasets, which provides strong support for intelligence warfare based on military UAVs and UGVs.

Artificial Intelligence and Military Decision Making: Revisiting OODA Loop Framework

Artificial Intelligence and Military Decision Making: Revisiting OODA Loop Framework

Automated Course of Action Evaluation for Military Decision-Making

In future complex and diverse battlefield situations, the existing command system faces the challenge of delayed human judgement of strategy and low objectivity. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence model that takes situation information and course of action simulation results as input and automatically assigns scores to various evaluation elements and a comprehensive score. This tool is expected to assist the commander in making decisions, reduce the time required for making judgments, and promote impartial decision-making.

The Chinese Origin of Xue (Learning)

Highlights The concept of xue (学) played a central role in Chinese education. Through the analysis of this key concept, we can further explain the internal differences between Chinese and Western educational cultures and systems. By mastering numerical divination techniques, shi (historians, 史) recast their role from that of sorcerers to that of civil officials. Such a shift laid the foundation necessary for xue to transform from a venue for military decision-making into a place for cultural and educational engagement after the Western Zhou Dynasty. In addition to shaping its core philosophical spirit, the origin of xue established its significance in traditional Chinese social and cultural contexts. It has contributed to the formation and transformation of the concept of de (virtue, 德) and continues to exert a great influence on contemporary Chinese education.

"What about Military Decision-Making?": A Bibliometric Review of Published Articles.

Decision-making processes in the military domain constitute a strategic field of research in cognitive psychology, although there are currently few scientific publications addressing the topic. Professionals in the field and interested parties need access to data on military decision-making processes to understand where and how the scientific community is directing its investigations on the issue. Military decision-making is a strategic field of study because the military is crucial to the security and defense of a country or community. This work aims to be a point of reference for those involved in various capacities in military decision-making, providing key data regarding research trends over the years, the geographical distribution of scientific productivity, methodologies employed, annual statistics, and the prevalence of the most-investigated terms and topics. Therefore, this study serves as a bibliometric analysis of the literature on military decision-making publihed from 1992 to 2023 on the Scopus and Web of Science databases.

Data Science in Military Decision-Making: Foci and Gaps

ABSTRACT In contemporary warfare, data science is crucial for the military in achieving information superiority. To gain an overview of the topic, 158 peer-reviewed articles were analysed through a semi-systematic literature review. The proportion of social science literature with a focus on risks of data science implies that policymakers are disproportionally influenced by a pessimistic view on military data science. The perceived risks of data science, however, are hardly addressed in formal science literature. Additionally, when levels of war are taken into account, relatively low attention for the operational level is observed. Literature reflects an emphasis on the tactical level when it comes to opportunities for military data science. On the contrary, studies examining the risks of military data science mostly consider the strategic level. Consequently, domain-specific requirements for military strategic data science may not be expressed. Lacking such applications ultimately leads to suboptimal strategic decisions in today’s warfare.

The Weight of History After October 7 and the Gaza War: Shaping a New Future

Abstract The trauma of the October 7 massacre for Israelis and the catastrophe that Gazans have experienced in the subsequent war mark a new stage in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. While October 7 and indeed the Israeli response are exceptional, we cannot overcome their consequences without addressing the root of the conflict. Calls for an immediate ceasefire are understandable but fall into the trap of seeing the solution as being a military decision. This echoes to the attitude of the current Israeli government which poses the response to October 7 as a military one. A new international political initiative is required to change the atmosphere by setting the goal of resolving the conflict on the basis of self-determination for both Israelis and Palestinians. That needs to inform the approach we adopt to ending the current conflict by replacing Hamas and Israel in Gaza with an international security mechanism.

LEGAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF FORENSIC EXPERTS’ ACTIVITY IN MARTIAL LAW

Relevance. The topic of legal and psychological aspects of forensic experts' activity in martial law is highly relevant today. Forensic experts play a critical role in such situations, providing vital evidence and analysis to support legal and military decision-making. The purpose of the article is to investigate the legal and psychological aspects of the activity of forensic experts during martial law and to analyze the normative legal acts that regulate the chosen topic, examining the challenges and opportunities presented by this unique context. It also explores the impact of martial law on the mental health and well-being of forensic experts. Methodology. The research methodology is to apply general scientific methods of research: analysis, synthesis, generalization, and comparative analysis. Results. This paper highlights the critical importance of forensic experts in martial law environments, and the need for careful consideration of the legal and psychological aspects of their work. The situation of martial law had a great impact on Ukraine and its citizens. The changes have affected not only the issue of safety but also all spheres of life in the country. However, the unique challenges of operating in a martial law environment can place significant psychological and ethical burdens on forensic experts, who must navigate complex legal frameworks and work under intense pressure. By understanding the challenges and opportunities presented by this context, we can better support forensic experts in their vital role, and ensure that their work is conducted in a way that is both effective and ethical. Overall, this paper highlights the critical importance of forensic experts in martial law environments, and the need for careful consideration of the legal and psychological aspects of their work.

Distancing through peacekeeping: global peacekeeping assemblages and the Gambian armed forces

Abstract This article contributes to the understanding of incentives for peacekeeping contribution from non-democratic countries through the largely unexplored case of peacekeeping under authoritarian rule in The Gambia. It argues that President Yahya Jammeh (1994–2017) aimed to use peacekeeping to help keep himself in power, fitting a broader global pattern of peacekeeping for regime maintenance. However, the research also demonstrates that leadership's aims for peacekeeping can be misaligned with the experiences of soldiers. Rather than draw soldiers closer to the regime, the peacekeeping experience involved a distancing from the forces for Gambian soldiers when they returned home. The findings draw on interviews with returned peacekeepers and military decision makers in The Gambia, as well as publications from the armed forces and new public sources of information made available after the 2017 political transition. The article proposes that viewing the deployment experience as a global peacekeeping assemblage helps to understand the more subtle, yet significant, ways in which soldiers' views can shift following peacekeeping deployments.

Strengthening the Red army in the proceedings of the all-russia central executive committee and the council of people’s commissars during the Civil war

This article presents the contribution of the All-Russia Central Executive Committee and the Council of People’s Commissars as the highest state authorities in the formation of the military power of the young Soviet Republic. The first experience of making military decisions in the documents of the All-Russia Central Executive Committee and the Council of People’s Commissars on the creation and strengthening of the armed forces of the country is considered. According to the results of the study, the conclusion is made about the role of the All-Russia Central Executive Committee and the Council of People’s Commissars in the development of military issues in the structures of public authorities of the Soviet state in the period of its formation. When writing the article, the author used a number of new, previously unknown to researchers documents stored in the State Archive of the Russian Federation.

Analysis of Media Influence on Military Decision-Making

Information warfare challenges, including the "CNN Effect," are increasing in quantity and complexity as the internet saturates modern life. Media communications, reliable or not, are constantly injected into American life, affecting opinions, decision-making, and actions—which may result in terrifying and permanent consequences when the media influences military members and government leaders. This research focuses on the immersive learning environment—an engaging, simulation-based educational experience with realistic conflict scenarios where students apply lesson objectives through hands-on activities. Instructors conduct immersive learning in the US Air Force Academy's (USAFA) Multi-Domain Laboratory. Traditionally, students were taught military strategy in a classroom where they engaged in wargaming by rolling dice using a board game. Now, the Military & Strategic Studies (MSS) Department uses hands-on, real-time wargaming with unique hardware and software to teach future leaders how to apply classroom concepts using experiential learning. Wargames are critical for meeting the priorities of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—specifically, preparing leaders to conduct joint operations in all domains by integrating experiential learning. The guidance explains that "curricula should leverage live, virtual, constructive, and gaming methodologies with wargames… to develop deeper insight and ingenuity." The wargame with media provides external influences like news and information from various sources, which may influence students' decision-making process, resulting in "The CNN Effect." "The CNN Effect" is a short-hand way to explain how news reports drive government leaders' responses, including military decision-making. This project builds upon existing research uniquely because this study examines decision-making from multiple leaders based on the same simulated media in USAFA's immersive learning environment. This research uses mixed methods analysis to explore how students act based on the wargame media inputs and compare course outcome differences after receiving enhanced Information Operations education or when exposed to different quantities of broadcasts. The Information Warfare (news literacy) module enhances education on the media's influence on decision-making and trust for students. Students learned to identify and research information sources, analyze biases, opinion versus fact-based reporting, and compare news reports from various outlets.

A complex-systems view on military decision making

ABSTRACT Military decision-making institutions are sociotechnical systems. They feature interactions among people applying technologies to enact roles within mission-oriented collectives. As sociotechnical systems, military institutions can be examined through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory. This discussion applies the CAS perspective to reveal implications of integrating newer artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into military decision-making institutions. I begin by arguing that military adoption of AI is well-incentivised by the current defence landscape. Given these incentives, it would be useful to try to understand the likely effects of AI integration into military decision-making. Direct examinations of the new affordances and risks of new AI models is a natural mode of analysis for this. I discuss some low-hanging fruit in this tradition. However, I also maintain that such examinations can miss systemic impacts of AI reliance in decision-making workflows. By taking a complex systems view of AI integration, it is possible to glean non-intuitive insights, including, for example, that common policy concerns like preventing human deskilling or requiring algorithmic transparency may be overblown or counterproductive.

Military Decision Support with Actor and Critic Reinforcement Learning Agents

While the recent advanced military operational concept requires an intelligent support of command and control, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has not been actively studied in the military domain. This study points out the limitations of RL for military applications from literature review and aims at improving the understanding of RL for military decision support under the limitations. Most of all, the black box characteristic of Deep RL makes the internal process difficult to understand in addition to complex simulation tools. A scalable weapon selection RL framework is built which can be solved either by a tabular form or a neural network form. The transition of the Deep Q-Network (DQN) solution to the tabular form makes it easier to compare the result to the Q-learning solution. Furthermore, rather than using one or two RL models selectively as before, RL models are divided as an actor and a critic, and systematically compared. A random agent, Q-learning and DQN agents as a critic, a Policy Gradient (PG) agent as an actor, Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agents as an actor-critic approach are designed, trained, and tested. The performance results show that the trained DQN and PPO agents are the best decision supporter candidates for the weapon selection RL framework.

О ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ВОЕННОЙ ЦЕНЗУРЫ РОССИЙСКОЙ ИМПЕРИИ В СФЕРЕ ПЕРЛЮСТРАЦИИ ПИСЕМ ВО ВРЕМЯ ПЕРВОЙ МИРОВОЙ ВОЙНЫ

The article, based on military censorship reports, analyzes the categories of confiscated letters grouped by topics of criticism or by the moods of the authors. It reveals significant changes in the perception of the events of the First World War in Russia and Belarus. It also studies specific projects of scientific developments in the field of intensification of weapons, the need to establish the production of machine guns, shells, self-propelled mines, “Greek fire”, explosives, the production of submarines, armored field vehicles. There is an analysis of proposals for teaching courses in combating poisonous gases, revision of training of recruits in order to improve the quality of training, reforming the relationship between the rears and the front.. The article describes such functions of military censorship as protective, which consisted in deleting military secret information, the function of informing the authorities about the mood in the army and assessing the events on the front line, punitive, which manifested itself in notifying the military unit about the sender and providing the police with the information about the recipient of the confiscated letter. The following topics, most persecuted by military censorship, are highlighted: an issue of the Great Retreat of Russian troops in the summer of 1915 and the loss of Galicia and Warsaw; the comments on activities of military censorship; lack of information about the real state of affairs and the circulation of rumors; soldiers’ distrust of officers and Command; letters of a humanistic nature; criticism of failed military decisions taken under the fear of disobedience; the issue of incompetence of fire spotters, sappers and trench builders; comparative characteristics of the quantity and quality of machine guns in the Russian and German armies. It is concluded that, due to censorship prohibitions on discussing any information of a military nature, the military authorities and local administration of front-line territories, in our view, often lagged behind in making urgent and timely decisions on the ground. It resulted in accumulating discontent in the army and among civilian population

Exploring Enhanced Military Ethics and Legal Compliance through Automated Insights: An Experiment on Military Decision-making in Extremis

Numerous factors are known to impact human decision-making: fatigue, stress, fear, sleep deprivation, organizational culture, ethics, and even substances consumed, among others. Making decisions within the context of a military operation poses exceptional challenges. Time constraints are consistently tight, and military personnel often contend with physical and mental exhaustion, along with substantial stress and fear. Our proactive strategies for addressing these hurdles predominantly revolve around educating military personnel, incorporating both theoretical training and immersive simulations that may include different types of war games, role playing and VR applications that mimic real-world challenges. However, can we extend our efforts further to ensure that military personnel surmount difficulties and consistently make morally and legally sound decisions amidst exceptional situations? Moreover, where does trust lie: in the insights of a comrade, a commanding officer, or the guidance provided by sophisticated algorithms and Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems? Could AI potentially outperform human guidance when it comes to elevating the ethical and legal discernment of military personnel amid the intensity of combat situations?

Military Decision-Making Process Enhanced by Image Detection

This study delves into the vital missions of the armed forces, encompassing the defense of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and support for civil institutions. Commanders grapple with crucial decisions, where accountability underscores the imperative for reliable field intelligence. Harnessing artificial intelligence, specifically, the YOLO version five detection algorithm, ensures a paradigm of efficiency and precision. The presentation of trained models, accompanied by pertinent hyperparameters and dataset specifics derived from public military insignia videos and photos, reveals a nuanced evaluation. Results scrutinized through precision, recall, map@0.5, mAP@0.95, and F1 score metrics, illuminate the supremacy of the model employing Stochastic Gradient Descent at 640 × 640 resolution: 0.966, 0.957, 0.979, 0.830, and 0.961. Conversely, the suboptimal performance of the model using the Adam optimizer registers metrics of 0.818, 0.762, 0.785, 0.430, and 0.789. These outcomes underscore the model’s potential for military object detection across diverse terrains, with future prospects considering the implementation on unmanned arial vehicles to amplify and deploy the model effectively.