To describe the progression of patients with mild or moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD) to a severe stage using the Standardized Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE). A cohort of 206 patients was stratified according to their baseline SMMSE scores: mild (19-24) and moderate (10-18). Proportional hazards analyses were used to determine the hazard of switching into a severe stage, defined as SMMSE score < 10. Among patients at the mild stage, 25% reached the severe stage within 2.6 years, and in the moderate group within 1.5 years. Patients with hallucinations at the mild stage experienced more rapid decline. The previous rate of decline was also found to be an important predictor. At the moderate stage, key predictors were lower SMMSE score and longer time since onset. Current SMMSE scores with other clinical details can be used to advise patients and caregivers about the expected progression of AD.