Migratory Caribou Research Articles

MOVEMENT PATTERNS OF BARREN-GROUND WOLVES IN THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ARCTIC

Abstract We collected information on the movement patterns of wolves (Canis lupus) captured within a 30,000-km2 area in the Northwest Territories and western Nunavut. Currently, diamond mining and road construction are occurring in the area used by these migratory wolves for denning. During summers of 1997 and 1998, 23 wolves in 19 different packs were captured and fitted with collar-mounted satellite transmitters. Areas used by these wolves varied seasonally and seemed to correspond to movements of migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Annual home-range sizes (95% minimum convex polygon), averaged 63,058 km2 ± 12,836 SE for males and 44,936 ± 7,564 km2 for females. Wolves began to restrict movements around a den site on the tundra by late April. They did not depart from their summer ranges until late October, after which they followed caribou to their wintering grounds. Straight-line distances from the most distant location on the winter range to the den site averaged 508 ± 26 km during 1997–1998 and 26...

Caribou movement as a correlated random walk.

Movement is a primary mechanism coupling animals to their environment, yet there exists little empirical analysis to test our theoretical knowledge of this basic process. We used correlated random walk (CRW) models and satellite telemetry to investigate long-distance movements of caribou, the most vagile, non-volant terrestrial vertebrate in the world. Individual paths of migratory and sedentary female caribou were quantified using measures of mean move length and angle, and net squared displacements at each successive move were compared to predictions from the models. Movements were modelled at two temporal scales. For paths recorded through one annual cycle, the CRW model overpredicted net displacement of caribou through time. For paths recorded over shorter intervals delineated by seasonal behavioural changes of caribou, there was excellent correspondence between model predictions and observations for most periods for both migratory and sedentary caribou. On the smallest temporal scale, a CRW model significantly overpredicted displacements of migratory caribou during 3 months following calving; this was also the case for sedentary caribou in late summer, and in late winter. In all cases of overprediction there was significant positive autocorrelation in turn direction, indicating that movements were more tortuous than expected. In one case of underprediction, significant negative autocorrelation of sequential turn direction was evident, indicating that migratory caribou moved in straightened paths during spring migration to calving grounds. Results are discussed in light of known migration patterns and possible limiting factors for caribou, and indicate the applicability of CRW models to animal movement at vast spatial and temporal scales, thus assisting in future development of more sophisticated models of population spread and redistribution for vertebrates.

Need and opportunity for a North American caribou knowledge cooperative

The importance of migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) to northerners, the increasing pressure to extract non-living resources, and predicted global climate change have led researchers, managers and resource users alike to focus on how to improve our knowledge of this unique northern ungulate. Unprecedented threats to caribou sustainability, along with the increasingly acknowledged value of indigenous hunters’contribution to caribou research, pose the additional challenge to innovate research methods that accommodate differing cultural perspectives and facilitate communication among groups. This paper surveys the state of scientific knowledge of the eleven major northern mainland herds of North America. We recommend an approach to improve our working knowledge of barren-ground caribou in order to assess better future impacts. The transfer of knowledge gained from years of research and indigenous experience on many aspects of caribou ecology should be evaluated and, where applicable, transferred to herds with more modest databases. The establishment of a North American Caribou Monitoring and Assessment System, based on a synthesis of local knowledge and research-based science, is recommended as a tool for improved communication and collective learning.

Need and opportunity for a North American caribou knowledge cooperative

The importance of migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) to northerners, the increasing pressure to extract non-living resources, and predicted global climate change have led researchers, managers and resource users alike to focus on how to improve our knowledge of this unique northern ungulate. Unprecedented threats to caribou sustainability, along with the increasingly acknowledged value of indigenous hunters’contribution to caribou research, pose the additional challenge to innovate research methods that accommodate differing cultural perspectives and facilitate communication among groups. This paper surveys the state of scientific knowledge of the eleven major northern mainland herds of North America. We recommend an approach to improve our working knowledge of barren-ground caribou in order to assess better future impacts. The transfer of knowledge gained from years of research and indigenous experience on many aspects of caribou ecology should be evaluated and, where applicable, transferred to herds with more modest databases. The establishment of a North American Caribou Monitoring and Assessment System, based on a synthesis of local knowledge and research-based science, is recommended as a tool for improved communication and collective learning.

Site fidelity of female caribou at multiple spatial scales

Studies of site fidelity have been hampered by arbitrary designations of spatial scale and the lack of null models for comparison. We generated null expectations of fidelity at different scales from the distribution of radio-tracked animals in a population. We applied the models to space use of satellite-tracked caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), the most vagile nonvolant terrestrial animal, from populations representing sedentary and migratory ecotypes. We compared distances between consecutive-year locations of adult females to expectations based on the total range and seasonal range of each population. At the scale of the total range, sedentary and migratory caribou displayed remarkably similar philopatry, despite a 30-fold difference in size of their population ranges, from time of calving (late May) to breeding (late October). The most intense fidelity occurred during post-calving when, on average, sedentary and migratory females returned to as near as 6.7 km and 123 km, respectively, of locations occupied the previous year. At the scale of the seasonal range, the ecotypes differed. Sedentary caribou still displayed fidelity from calving to breeding; migratory caribou exhibited fidelity only during late autumn. For migratory, but not sedentary caribou, inter-year distances during winter were negatively correlated with age, implying that older females were more philopatric. We conclude that reproductive activities delimit the season of fidelity of female caribou of both ecotypes, and that scale-dependent ecotypic differences in fidelity may reflect different factors of population limitation. A spatially-explicit approach to site fidelity is essential for synthesizing patterns across studies.

Migration - utopia or myopia?

Peter Osborne spent a sabbatical in northern America and was surprised that so many scientists and students stated that caribou migration was largely the result of mosquito pressure. He failed however to find any documented evidence of this claim although he was constantly confronted by the well known «facts» that mosquitoes had been observed to drive caribou crazy and even kill juveniles. The issue Osborne wishes to focus is that an experimentally unsubstantiated anthropomorphism appears to have become critical evidence in support of a theory. A recent article in Nature (393, 511-513, 1998) devoted to the uses of 'science in fiction' to stimulate thought and discussion about aspects of academia encouraged him to write the following comment in the form of a parody of ancient Greek dialogues.

Inuit Knowledge of Long-term Changes in a Population of Arctic Tundra Caribou

Indigenous peoples possess knowledge about wildlife that dates back many generations. Inuit observations of historical changes in a caribou population on southern Baffin Island, collected from 43 elders and active hunters during 1983-95, indicate that caribou were abundant and their distributions extensive in most coastal areas of southern Baffin Island from c.1900-25. Subsequently, caribou distributions contracted and abundance declined, probably reaching an overall low in the 1940s. Beginning in the mid-1950s, distributions and abundance increased gradually, at least until the mid-1980s. Changes in distribution occurred mainly during autumn, as caribou migrated to their wintering areas. Within most wintering areas, increases in caribou abundance followed a process of range expansion, range drift (i.e., expanding on one front while contracting on another), and finally range shift (i.e., mass emigration to a new winter range). During the population decline and low, the caribou often exhibited winter range volatility (i.e., frequent, unpredictable interannual range shifts). On the basis of Inuit descriptions of caribou abundance, we estimated that the population as a whole decreased an average of 9% annually from 1910 to 1940, and then increased about 8% annually from 1940 to 1980. This pattern was largely consistent across southern Baffin Island. As Inuit elders had predicted in 1985, the population essentially abandoned its highest-density wintering area on Foxe Peninsula during the late 1980s, apparently emigrating en masse to a new wintering area on Meta Incognita Peninsula, about 375 km to the southeast. Inuit knowledge suggested that caribou population fluctuations are cyclic, with each full cycle occurring over the lifetime of an elder. Both this study and historical records dating from 1860 support a periodicity of 60-80 years for fluctuations of the South Baffin caribou population. Inuit elders suggested that the abundance of caribou on wintering areas decreases several years after caribou occupy small coastal islands, a phenomenon currently occurring throughout southern Baffin Island, except on Cumberland Peninsula. The Inuit recognize two ecotypes of caribou: migratory upland-lowland caribou and resident mountain-plateau caribou. After migratory caribou from Foxe Peninsula shifted their winter range around 1990, Meta Incognita Peninsula was occupied by both ecotypes. The migratory caribou apparently occupy low elevations, while the resident caribou remain in the mountains, producing two seasonal migratory patterns. Inuit knowledge proved to be temporally and spatially more complete than the written record.

Natural regulation of cervidae along a 1000 km latitudinal gradient: Change in trophic dominance

The biomass of forage, herbivores (caribou and moose) and predators (wolf) were estimated for four assemblages of large mammals along a latitudinal gradient in the Quebec-Labrador peninsula and related to predictions made by two types of multitrophic level models. Wolves were present in three study areas, but they had been extirpated in the last one. Annual production of preferred forage exhibited a clear north-south increase for moose, but not for caribou. Neither the herbivore nor predator biomass increased along the latitudinal gradient: the highest herbivore biomass occurred in the wolf-free area and in the northernmost site, while the greatest predator density was observed in the southernmost site. Consequently, the ratio of the herbivore to forage biomass was the highest in the area devoid of wolves and in the northernmost site occupied by migratory caribou. Availability of forage per herbivore was the greatest in the moose-wolf and the caribou-moose-wolf assemblages. The observed data supported the multitrophic level model incorporating classical predator-prey relationships and producing stepwise accrual of trophic level biomass with increasing food chain length. In the northernmost site, the system was limited to two functional trophic levels and caribou were regulated by summer forage. Three functional trophic levels appeared to exist in the central study area where caribou and moose were preyed upon by wolves. Both herbivores were at very low density, the first one due probably to its poor adaptation to predation and the second because of an unproductive range. In the southernmost site, moose were clearly regulated by predation and kept much below the carrying capacity. With the extirpation of wolves in the last study area, moose were regulated by forage and the density exceeded that in the moose-wolf system by seven times even in a less productive range. Caribou, having primarily evolved under resource limitation, is replaced by a cervid better adapted to predation, the moose, in more productive ‘three-link’ ecosystems.

Evolving perspectives on caribou population dynamics, have we got it right yet?

The roles of food, weather and predation are compared between sedentary and migratory caribou herds. Sedentary herds disperse (space out) at calving time while the cows of migratory herds move in masse (space away) to calving grounds to reduce predation risk. The sedentary ecotype calves on ranges near open water if tree cover is present or in rugged topography in the absence of tree cover. The migratory ecotype aggregates on calving grounds located on alpine mountain plateaus or on the tundra north of the Arctic tree line. The two herds with the greatest densities in North America, the sedentary Slate Islands Herd and the migratory George River Herd both had changes in abundance that followed summer food problems. The hypothesis that winter lichen supplies determine abundance and set the carrying capacity is rejected. Lichens are not a necessary food for caribou. A review of the mortality of young calves documented in the past 30 years provides no support for the hypothesis that hypothermia is a common mortality problem. Young calves documented can be born inviable at birth if their dams are severely malnourished. The migratory caribou in North America reached peak numbers in the 1980s after wolf populations were heavily harvested in the 1970s. The sedentary ecotype is frequently regulated by wolf predation that affects both recruitment (R) and the mortality of adults (M). The balance between R/M schedules commonly occurs when R (calves) represents, about 15% of the herd and when numbers (prorated to the area of the dispersed annual range) approximate 0.06 caribou/km2. Population limitation of migratory herds by predation has occurred in the NWT and in several herds in Alaska but only when wolf densities were > 6.5/1000 km2. Wolf predation halted the growth of the George River Herd in 1980 but then wolves contracted rabies and the herd again increased and degraded spring/summer ranges. The reduced summer phytomass resulted in lower birth rates and increased the vulnerability of calves and possibly adults to wolf predation. Stabilizing mechanisms for migratory herds include movements between herds above tree line and range contractions/expansions with resultant changes in demography. It is hypothesized that the most important ecological variable in all seasonal distributions of caribou is predation risk rather than to maximize forage supplies.

The relationship between food intake and predation risk in migratory caribou and implications to caribou and wolf population dynamics

We examined the hypothesis that spring migration in barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) enhances access to high quality food, reduces predation risks or both. We related our findings to the hypothesis that one of the consequences of migration is that prey populations cannot be regulated by predation because predators are unable to respond numerically to changes in abundance of migratory prey. In the Northwest Territories, migration to calving grounds by pregnant cows reduced the risk of predation on neonates. Wolf (Canis lupus) densities on calving grounds averaged only 22% of winter range densities because most wolves denned near tree line. The quality and quantity of food that was available to cows that migrated to calving grounds was lower than for bulls and other caribou that lagged far behind the pregnant cows during spring migration. Fecal nitrogen levels were higher in bulls than in cows in late May and early June but there were no differences in mid or late June. Areas occupied by bulls in late May had a greater biomass of live sedges than on the calving ground in early June. It appears that although food in July is abundant and nutritious, insect harassment prevents efficient feeding. Body fat reserves in both sexes declined to almost zero by mid-July, the lowest level of the year. Insect numbers declined in August and body fat levels increased to the highest level of the year by early September. Because the timing of caribou's return to the hunting ranges of tree line denning wolves was related to caribou density, our data were inconsistent with the suggested consequence of migration. Tree line denning by wolves and density-dependent changes in caribou migration suggests a mechanism for population regulation in caribou and wolves. We suggest that the process is as follows; when caribou numbers increase, some density-dependent factor causes range expansion in August (e.g., competition for food) causing caribou to return earlier to the hunting ranges of tree line denning wolves, more denning wolves have access to caribou, wolf pup survival increases and wolf numbers increase. The effect on caribou population growth will depend on the timing and magnitude of the wolf numerical response.

Post-calving photo-census of the Rivière George caribou herd in July 1993

A photographie census of the Rivière George caribou herd in Quebec and Labrador was conducted between 4-23 July 1993 during the post-calving period. The primary objective of the study was to obtain an accurate estimate of the current size of the herd to permit the monitoring of population trends and effective management of the herd. The census procedure consisted of (1) use of satellite and conventional radio-telemetry to locate and photograph post-calving aggregations during the period of optimal aggregation, (2) determination of the minimum population size by direct counts from photographs, and (3) estimation of the total population size using the Petersen Index method. This method allowed extrapolation of the data to caribou that were either not photographed or that were not aggregated at the time of the census. The minimum count indicates that the Rivière George caribou herd consisted of at least 358 460 adults (older than calves) at the time of the census. This count underestimates the total population size but is useful because it is virtually free of error. The total size of the Rivière George herd in July 1993 was estimated to be 540 040 adults within 90% confidence limits of + 12.8%. Comparisons with previous estimates indicate that the size of the herd continues to be large, but that its growth has probably ceased. This study demonstrates that a photographic survey of post-calving aggregations is an effective method to census the Rivière George herd and possibly other large migratory caribou herds that are monitored by telemetry.

Regulation of a large herd of migratory caribou: summer nutrition affects calf growth and body reserves of dams

The range used for calving and for the first month of lactation by the Rivière George Caribou Herd (RGH), which peaked at over 600 000 individuals in the mid-eighties, showed signs of overgrazing, in contrast to that used by the adjacent Rivière aux Feuilles Herd. Density of females in the tundra habitat below 600 m asl averaged 11.2 animals/km2 on the overgrazed range in 1988, in comparison with ≈0.5/km2 on the other range. Inadequate foraging conditions during the first month of lactation caused complete exhaustion of fat reserves in females on the poor range; milk production was seemingly insufficient, as calves were lighter and grew at a slower rate than calves born on the better summer range or born in captivity from dams fed ad libitum. Moreover, females on the poor range were shorter and lighter than their counterparts on the good range, illustrating that priority goes to reproduction rather than to growth under suboptimal foraging conditions. Accretion of body fat and protein in RGH females was rapid in autumn, but individuals with a calf at yield accumulated smaller fat reserves than nonreproductive adult females. Condition did not affect ovulation. However, interruption of gestation was suspected in females that were unable to accumulate enough body reserves in autumn or early winter, judging from the progressive decline in the pregnancy rate and in the autumn cow:calf ratio observed for the RGH since 1984, concomitant with the levelling off of the herd. Summer nutrition seemingly regulated the RGH through a combination of decreased fecundity and survival.

Distribution of wolf dens on migratory caribou ranges in the Northwest Territories, Canada

Most wolves (Canis lupus) on migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) ranges in the Northwest Territories den near the tree line, the northern limit of tree growth. Sixty percent of the 209 dens that we located were within 50 km of the tree line, an area representing only 25% of the caribou range. Den density in the forest was significantly lower than expected if dens were randomly dispersed. Within the tundra zone wolves did not show any preference for denning near caribou calving grounds. Most wolves may den at the tree line because caribou are likely available for a greater proportion of the denning period than they would be elsewhere and because caribou are usually abundant near the tree line in September, when the nutritional demands of the pups are greatest. Within the tree-line zone, habitat characteristics appeared to affect the local distribution of dens because wolves preferred to den where the roots of trees and shrubs provided structural support for the tunnels. With most wolves denning at the tree line, density-dependent summer range expansion and contraction by caribou may provide a mechanism by which changing caribou densities could influence the growth rate of the wolf population.

Predation and caribou populations

Predation, especially wolf (Canis lupus) predation, limits many North American caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations below the density that food resources could sustain. The impact of predation depends on the parameters for the functional and numerical response of the wolves, relative to the potential annual increment of the caribou population. Differences in predator-avoidance strategies largely explain the major differences in caribou densities that occur naturally in North America. Caribou migrations that spatially separate caribou from wolves allow relatively high densities of caribou to survive. Non-migratory caribou that live in areas where wolf populations are sustained by alternate prey can be eliminated by wolf predation.

Spring migration and dispersion of woodland caribou at calving

Each spring from 1975 to 1985, a small herd of caribou, Rangifer tarandus, migrated in April to the islands in Lake Nipigon, Ontario where they remained for the summer. Three hypotheses for this migration were: (1) to reduce insect harassment, (2) to seek more abundant or nutritious forage, or (3) to reduce predation risk. The food and insect relief hypotheses were neither necessary nor sufficient explanations for the spring migration of the animals. Caribou used the shoreline of the two largest occupied islands even in the absence of insects. There was less green forage on the islands than on the winter range and the smaller islands were overgrazed. The dispersed nature of the population, the use of shore-lines useful for escape, and the avoidance of islands travelled by wolves, Canis lupus, suggest that the migration of this herd was a spacing tactic to reduce predation risk. In other woodland caribou herds in North America, animals are also widely spaced in relatively safe habitats after spring migration, which suggests that migration and dispersion may be a common tactic to reduce predation risk especially for females and neonates.

Kenneth C. Maclure, 1914-1988

On 24 March 1988 Canada lost one of its pioneer polar air navigators in the sudden death of Kenneth Maclure while vacationing with his wife Margaret (Blackmore) in Mexico. ... In 1941, ... Maclure proposed a grid system for measuring direction in high latitudes to overcome the problem created by the extreme convergency of the meridians. ... he was the first Canadian to reach the North Geographic Pole. Maclure's grid direction proposal was thoroughly tested and proved to be a simple technique for measuring direction on polar flights. ... Maclure's grid was altered to further simplify navigation on high latitude flights originating from North America. [He participated in a number of scientific flights across the Canadian Arctic to Alaska including:] ... the Ptarmigan weather flights by the USAF out of Alaska over the Arctic Ocean and Operation Cariberg, to study the migration of caribou from timberline to the barrens and to study the amount and state of ice in Hudson's Bay. ... His work included acoustic and electromagnetic research in ice-filled waters, which necessitated many visits to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. ... This quiet, modest Canadian, a major contributor to modern-day polar air navigation, will be greatly missed by his former associates and all who knew him. ...

George Elson (ca. 1875-ca. 1950)

... We know little of Elson's childhood. His father, a Scot, worked for the Hudson's Bay Company and, as was often the custom of the country, married a Cree. George grew up nurtured by both cultures, yet in some respects caught between them, like so many children of mixed parentage. In his mid-twenties, having worked for a survey crew of the Grand Trunk Railroad, he found himself in Missanabie, Ontario, when fate struck. A journalist from New York by the name of Leonidas Hubbard, Jr., had written the Hudson's Bay post, seeking a reliable outdoorsman for an expedition to Labrador on behalf of Outing magazine. When two other candidates did not pan out, Elson was chosen. Hubbard proved to be friendly and generous - full of an almost boyish enthusiasm. But he had never travelled the bush for an extended period, nor had his companion, Dillon Wallace, a New York attorney. Elson felt at home in the woods, but could not help wondering about the expedition's outfit. It included two rifles and pistols, but no shotgun, which would make winging birds much more difficult. Nor was Hubbard able to purchase a gill net in Labrador, as he had hoped. On July 15, 1903, the trio set off down Grand Lake from Northwest River Post, seeking to ascend the Naskapi River into central Labrador and witness the autumn caribou hunt of the Naskapi Indians. Anxious to make up for lost time, Hubbard missed the Naskapi River and instead headed up the tiny Susan Brook, which soon dwindled into a rock-filled obstacle course. As conditions worsened, Elson saw the threat of starvation looming. ... For the next month the men retraced their steps in raw weather. Elson, with remarkable skill, bagged an occasional goose, but with no shotgun and no gill net, the expedition's plight was desperate. Finally Hubbard collapsed, unable to proceed. Making him as comfortable as possible in a tent, Wallace and Elson continued down Susan Brook on October 18; three days later they parted in the midst of the season's first blizzard, Wallace to return to Hubbard with some moldy flour they had retrieved (left behind earlier in the expedition), Elson to go for help on Grand Lake. For five days, he stumbled through snowdrifts, his trousers in tatters, his feet wrapped in scraps of blanket. ... Reaching a trapper's cabin, he sped rescuers upstream, but Hubbard was beyond help. He had died the day of the parting. Wallace was only barely alive - a hardly recognizable skeleton. Over that winter he and Elson recovered at Northwest River Post and returned home in May 1904. ... Devastated by the loss of her husband, Mina Hubbard turned from grief to anger. Why had her husband perished, when the other men had not? ... When Wallace, still loyal to the memory of his friend, announced he was returning to Labrador to finish Hubbard's work, Mina secretly organized an expedition of her own. ... Thus when Wallace headed north in June 1905, he was surprised to find a female rival determined to upstage him - with an able woodsman in charge of the task. Under Elson's leadership, Mina Hubbard completed her expedition nearly flawlessly. The party visited the Naskapi, witnessed the caribou migration, and arrived at George River Post in Ungava Bay on August 29. Wallace, who became lost pioneering an alternate route, did not arrive until mid-October. But the most poignant aspect of the tale was that Elson, struck by Mina Hubbard's kindness and spirited humor, seems to have fallen in love. ... Little has been uncovered of Elson's later years. He married relatively late, to a Cree woman. Working for Revillon Fur Company, he settled at Moose Factory. Only once, in 1936, did he see Mina Hubbard again, when she visited him in her sixties. ...

John Hornby (1880-1927)

... John Hornby was 23 years old when he came to Canada from England in 1904. From then until his death 22 years later, he pursued a lifestyle uncomplicated by long-range goals and plans. ... Hornby went north to the Great Bear Lake region with Cosmo Melville on a trading expedition in 1908. Fascination for the country was immediate, intense, and so strong that except for occasional trips to Edmonton, England, and service in the First Great War, he was to spend the rest of his life in the Barren Ground and the adjacent "land of the little sticks". ... Hornby's practice of living off the land with an absolute minimum of food staples and equipment was irrevocably confirmed over the next few years. ... in 1926 with two inexperienced companions ... Hornby's ability to survive with a rifle, a bare minimum of food, and some good luck was not sufficient. In distinctively Hornby style, the party dallied high up on the Thelon for no explicable reason in the late summer, and missed the caribou migration southward. Consequently, they wintered without adequate food, and in the spring of 1927, all three succumbed to starvation in their cabin midway down the Thelon. Most likely, had the manner of Hornby's passing and the final depletion of strength and energy not been so dramatically and poignantly chronicled in Edgar Christian's diary, Hornby would only be a minor footnote in the history of subarctic travel. Yet, today, his status must surely approach that of a folk hero. He has been the subject of a number of books and articles, dramatic productions, and radio programs, and countless pilgrimages have been made to the site of his last cabin. ... John Hornby is a popular legend because his story sparks the imagination of wilderness travellers of the late twentieth century. With him they have a natural empathy and affinity.

A.H. Joy (1887-1932)

Inspector Alfred Herbert Joy of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police is best known for a remarkable 1800-mile (2900-km) patrol by dogsled across the heart of the Queen Elizabeth Islands in 1929. He had a keen interest in and extensive knowledge of the Arctic, its wildlife and people, and was dedicated to upholding the law and jurisdiction of Canada in isolated arctic regions. ... In 1921, following Canada's decision to extend jurisdiction into the Arctic Islands, Joy was selected to represent the government at Pond Inlet, northern Baffin Island. Soon after his arrival he undertook investigation of the Janes murder case. Joy travelled to Cape Crauford in December, where he found and exhumed Janes's body and conducted an autopsy. Later, in his capacity as coroner, he held an inquest and gathered a jury, the accused, and witnesses from as far away as Igloolik, in addition to presiding as Justice of the Peace at the trial. Following the trial he received a notable tribute from Mr. Justice Rivet for his outstanding work on this case-particularly for his thoroughness and fairness. He had enforced the law in the Arctic Islands for the first time. In 1924, Joy made a hair-raising attempt to cross Lancaster Sound by dogsled from northern Baffin Island to test the practicability of communicating with the R.C.M.P. detachment on Ellesmere Island. ... After 1925, when Joy took over detachments on eastern Ellesmere Island (Craig Harbour, Bache Peninsula) and Devon Island (Dundas Harbour), he began a series of long exploratory patrols across the Queen Elizabeth Islands which would do credit to any great polar explorer. During these trips he was able to correct errors on maps, explore new sled routes, make notes on wildlife, vegetation, coal outcrops, archaeological sites, sites of historic interest, weather, and sea-ice conditions. His detailed remarks on the numbers and migration of Peary caribou among the Queen Elizabeth Islands and the long distances arctic hares can travel on their hind legs are of great biological interest. He also foresaw new ways of patrolling the High Arctic, stating: It would be possible, if necessary, I believe, to carry on an extensive survey of the islands west of Eureka sound by aeroplane. He made important biological and archaeological collections for what is now the national Museums of Canada. His collection of 700 specimens from a Palaeo-Eskimo site was acknowledged by the Chief of the Division of Anthropology to be ... one of the most valuable accessions that the Division has received since I took charge of it in 1910. ... Joy's end was tragic. He died at the age of 43, apparently of a stroke, on the morning of the day he was to be married in Ottawa. ...

To Know What We Don’t Know or the Caribou Weren’t in the Estimates

* If analysts could forecast earnings changes perfectly, they could forecast stock prices. Most empirical evidence, however, supports the conclusion that analysts cannot forecast earnings with enough accuracy to improve upon an extrapolation of past growth rates, which is itself not a useful predictor. Professional investors can extrapolate past earnings trends fairly successfully. A large portion of estimates based on extrapolation turn out to be right, enforcing the impression that such forecasts have value. In fact, however, most of the value for anticipating stock price changes lies in forecasting changes in earnings trends. When investors' earnings forecasts are close to the mark, they mean very little to the price of the stock; when they are wrong, they mean a great deal. Most of us do not recognize that it is the exception, rather than the rule, that we know more than the market. Tending to treat all forecasts with the same degree of seriousness, we end up investing in those companies with superior earnings records while ignoring those without. Expecting the future to continue on a straight line from the past, with no surprises in store, we tend to pay too much for companies with high price-earnings ratios and too little for low P/E companies. The analyst who paid $120 a share for Atlantic Richfield in 1969 would have laughed out of Wall Street anyone who told him that the stock would fall to $48 in a year's time because the caribou's migrations would require redesign of the Alaska pipeline. The caribou eventually visit most stocks, and when they visit one with a very high P/E multiple the consequences can be severe. Yet analysts continue to ignore the great potential of low P/E stocks in favor of a set of forecasts extrapolated from past achievements. 1