Migration Propensities Research Articles

The effect of social capital on migration aspiration and migration capability: Insights from northern Ethiopia

The decision to migrate is an important economic decision to make. Push factors, such as poverty, drought, lack of jobs, etc. are expected to play a role in forcing the youth to migrate. In the study area, however, youths of similar economic, demographic, and geographic background are observed to have different migration propensities. This paper examines the role of social capital in fostering migration aspiration and migration capability. The study employs both qualitative and quantitative data collected using a cross-sectional research design. In order to account for a potential interdependence between migration aspiration and migration capability, the seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model is used to analyze the data. After controlling some socio-economic and demographic variables, the results show a positive effect of social capital on both migration aspiration and migration capability. The findings indicate that broker influence (relative to job search) and age have a lower effect on the desire for migration, while Christianity has a higher effect relative to other religious beliefs. Findings indicate that farmers and the unemployed have lower migration ability compared to students. The presence of previous immigrants in the family also has a lower effect on migration ability.

Unravelling the favorability of radical-directed xn-H2O dissociation at serine and threonine

Among tandem-mass-spectrometry approaches, radical-directed dissociation (RDD) is uniquely sensitive to molecular structure because the location and types of cleavage observed are dictated by radical migration propensities. Although the underlying chemistry for many RDD fragmentation pathways has been previously explained, xn-H2O fragment ions that occur exclusively at serine and threonine residues, have not been examined in detail. Creation of this fragment type inherently requires two dissociation events, one to lose water and another to cleave the peptide backbone. Double dissociations are typically disfavored relative to pathways requiring a single cleavage, yet xn-H2O fragment ions are abundant in RDD spectra. To understand why this fragmentation pathway is favorable, we used a combination of computational chemistry and experiments on peptides with a variety of covalent modifications. Our results explore the energetics, location, and migration of the radical in each step of the mechanism, revealing that favorability can be attributed to the stability of the required radical intermediates and access to low-energy pathways connecting them. Ultimately, the abundant nature of xn-H2O ions and the selectivity associated with their exclusive generation at Ser/Thr provides high value sequence information in RDD experiments.

Local Ties as Self-Reported Constraints to Internal Migration in Spain

The internal migration literature has identified various factors that deter migration and encourage staying, but has been less concerned with people’s own reports about what makes it difficult for them to migrate or makes them want to stay. We explore factors that make it difficult to change the place of residence—from here on denoted as constraints—reported in the Spanish survey on Attitudes and Expectations of Spatial Mobility in the Labour Force (N = 3892). These constraints were uniquely asked from all respondents through an open-ended question, regardless of their migration intentions. We find that many self-reported constraints correspond to factors that have previously been associated with decreased migration propensities. In order of frequency, respondents reported ties to family and friends, ties to their residential environment, financial limitations, and ties to work as constraints to migration. Our results further show that the likelihood of mentioning ties to family and friends as constraints decreased with age, was higher for women than for men and for people who lived close to most of their social network than for those who did not. Mentioning ties to the residential environment as constraints was positively associated with being partnered, and also with living in one’s birthplace. People who were unemployed were less likely to mention ties to work and were more likely to report financial limitations as constraints than people who had a permanent contract—whereas being self-employed was positively associated with mentioning ties to the residential environment.

Understanding Couple Migration towards Core and Peripheral Regions: The Role of Men’s and Women’s Education

Numerous studies have demonstrated that men’s educational profiles dominate couple migration decisions. However, most of these investigated the US context or were conducted in the previous century. This study examines the role of both partners’ educational attainments in couple migration in recent years in a new context: the Netherlands. The Netherlands is one of the countries in which women surpass men in educational attainment. We take a geographical perspective and test Costa and Kahn’s (2000) hypothesis that power couples – two partners with university degrees – are more likely than other couples to migrate to metropolitan areas with dense labour markets in order to solve their “colocation problem.” Data are derived from the Dutch Labour Force Survey between 2006 and 2015. The research population consists of all opposite-sex married and unmarried couples aged 18-45 (N = 90,314 couples). By linking the respondents to integral register data, we tracked all couples until three years after the interview date. The results show that both men’s and women’s human capital increases migration propensities, although effect sizes are relatively small. Social factors such as the geographical distance to birthplace and parents appear to play a significant role in couple migration. We found only partial support for Costa and Kahn’s (2000) colocation hypothesis. Power couples who live in the core region are less likely than other couples to migrate to more peripherally located regions. However, periphery-to-core migration is only affected by the male partner’s human capital, not by hers. Hence, the concentration of power couples in Dutch metropolitan areas probably stems from highly educated, single, young, urban adults who migrated there individually and who tend to stay there after union formation.

Notion of Belonging in the Nation-State: Gendered Construction of International Migration Aspirations among University Students in Bangladesh

Migration is not a new phenomenon, yet migration aspirations need to be studied carefully. This research looks into the gendered constructions of migration aspirations among university students. Bangladesh as a nation-state plays a pivotal role to construct gender specific migration propensities. Prevailing gender relations influence migration dynamics at macro, meso and micro-level. Consequently, girls have often different reasons for migration aspirations than their counterparts. This study finds that young men aspire to go abroad for better employment opportunities and standard livelihood, while young women tend to do so for personal security and secured life. Mostly, informants are found dissatisfied and frustrated about the state and fellow citizens.

What Drives Youth’s Intention to Migrate Abroad? Evidence from International Survey Data

Abstract Despite the bulk of international migrants being youth, little is known about the factors driving young people’s migration behavior at the global level. Using the individual-level survey data from Gallup World Poll across 139 countries over the period 2010–2016, this study contributes to the literature by exploring a wide range of factors potentially shaping young people’s (aged 15–34) desire, and a more concrete plan, to migrate abroad permanently. Results show that factors, such as holding post-secondary education, being unemployed, and working part-time involuntary, are increasing the desire of youth to migrate abroad as well as the probability that they turn this aspiration into a more concrete plan over the following year. Similarly, having negative expectations about the economic outlook, the number of available job opportunities, and the prospects for upward career mobility are found to increase the propensity to migrate abroad, both among unemployed and employed youth. Results also show that material deprivation may represent a significant push factor behind youth migration, although budgetary constraints may prevent youth from transforming their migration desires into actual plans in low-income countries. Moreover, findings suggest that contextual factors, such as discontent with local amenities and national governments, increase the desire of youth to migrate abroad, but they have little or no influence on the probability that these dreams are turned into more concrete plans. Finally, this study shows that while youth’s and adults’ migration propensities are often driven by the same motives, the influence of education and labor market-related factors on migration intentions is considerably stronger among youth than adults.

Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related?

As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated impacts on soil and water salinity. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water, and heat stress is increasingly common. The number of Marshallese people residing in the USA has increased rapidly from 6650 in 2000 to an estimated 30,000 in 2018. While we know that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands and that there are significant migration flows, we do not know to what extent people already migrate because of climate change. This paper addresses this gap and presents findings from interdisciplinary fieldwork in the Marshall Islands and destination areas in the USA. The research team conducted a survey (N = 278), focus group discussions, expert interviews and a geo-spatial analysis of flood extent and migration rates to study the relationship between climatic events, ecosystem services and migration. The results show that respondents primarily cite education, health care, work and family visits as migration drivers, and only few mention climate impacts or environmental change. However, respondents do identify impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, health and safety, and the study finds significant correlations between climate impacts, trends in ecosystem services and migration propensities at household level. Furthermore, 62% of Marshallese respondents in the USA indicated that climate change affects their decision to return to Marshall Islands in the future.

Australian migration propensities by visa class: an analysis of linked administrative data

Following a number of difficulties measuring net overseas migration (NOM), since 2006 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has defined a usual resident of Australia as a person who spends at least 12 months of any given 16-month period in Australia. This is ascertained through matching of individual records for persons moving across Australia’s borders, including their Arrival and Departure Cards, their passport movements and their visa grants. The total number of persons counted into the population through arrival in a given quarter is termed NOM Arrivals. The total number of persons counted out of the population through departure in a given quarter is termed NOM Departures. The net of the two numbers is NOM or Net Overseas Migration for the quarter. In the late 2000s the data capturing NOM movements was held by the ABS and the data collected on visa grants was administered by the then Department of Immigration and Citizenship. In this paper, we examine the utility of these now linked administrative data sets in improving our knowledge about the timing and level of NOM propensities, or probabilities of ‘NOM tagging’ in the Australian migration system. Specifically, we present findings on the estimated event history of ‘NOMing in’ and ‘NOMing out’ of Australia using 22 aggregate visa types. These aggregate visa types are defined broadly containing categories such as business skills, employer sponsored, general skilled migration, working holiday makers, students and special humanitarian programme types. Implications of our findings with respect to improving Australian migration forecasting and further data linkages are discussed.

Age schedules of intra-provincial migration in Kenya

Background: Migration today is a complex process determined by inter-related historical, geographical, economic, sociological and political factors. There are linkages between life-course transitions and patterns of movement necessitating estimation of migration propensities by age, sex and other characteristics. However, analysis of age specific migration propensities has been limited in developing countries. Data source and methods: Data was derived from the 2009 Kenya population and housing Census via the IPUMS data Series. The standard 7-parameter age migration schedule due to Rogers and Castro (1981) was fitted using Microsoft excel workbook using solver. Results: Large volumes of movements occur between ages 17 and 24.The peak ages at migration are similar to those observed in Asian migration patterns. The age pattern for all the regions had two peaks contrary to the standard with four. Conclusion: The results suggest that the main contributory factors behind migration schedules are schooling, labour force and associational moves.

Economic Swings, Political Instability and Migration in Kyrgyzstan.

Individual-level migration responses to economic fluctuations and political instability remain poorly understood. Using nationally representative survey data from Kyrgyzstan, we look at variations in levels and propensities of internal and temporary international migration and relate them to changes in the economic and political environment in that Central Asian nation in the first decade of the century. A multinomial event history model predicting yearly risks of both types of migration detects no clear association of internal migration risks with episodes of heightened political instability but shows a decrease in those risks in response to the strongest economic shock of the observation period. In comparison, international migration risks, while also insensitive to political turmoil, appear to increase at the time of the most pronounced economic downturn. The results also point to instructive patterns in migration propensities by type of area of residence, education, gender, and ethnicity. These findings are interpreted in light of complex intersections of demography with politics, economy, and culture in this transitional Eurasian setting.

Network Effects in Mexico–U.S. Migration

Scholars have long noted how migration streams, once initiated, obtain a self-feeding character. Studies have connected this phenomenon, called the cumulative causation of migration, to expanding social networks that link migrants in destination to individuals in origin. While extant research has established a positive association between individuals’ ties to prior migrants and their migration propensities, seldom have researchers interrogated how multiple social mechanisms—as well as exposure to common environmental factors—might account for these interdependencies. This article uses a mixed-methods strategy to identify the social mechanisms underlying the network effects in Mexico–U.S. migration. Three types of social mechanisms are identified, which all lead to network effects: (a) social facilitation, which is at work when network peers such as family or community members provide useful information or help that reduces the costs or increases the benefits of migration; (b) normative influence, which operates when network peers offer social rewards or impose sanctions to encourage or discourage migration; and (c) network externalities, which are at work when prior migrants generate a pool of common resources that increase the value or reduce the costs of migration for potential migrants. The authors first use large-sample survey data from the Mexican Migration Project to establish the presence of network effects and then rely on 138 in-depth interviews with migrants and their family members in Mexico to identify the social mechanisms underlying these network effects. The authors thus provide a deeper understanding of migration as a social process, which they argue is crucial for anticipating and responding to future flows.

Trade, FDI, Migration, and the Place Premium: Mexico and the United States

Large wage differences between countries (place premiums) are well documented. Neoclassical trade theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased commercial integration. Rising commercial integration, foreign direct investment, and migration followed the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Mexico. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between Mexico and the United States between 1988 and 2011. We match survey and census data from Mexico and the US to estimate the change in wage differentials for observationally identical workers over time. We find no evidence of long-run wage convergence among cohorts characterized by low migration propensities although this was, in part, due to large macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand, we do find some evidence of convergence for workers with high migration propensities. Finally, we find evidence of convergence in the border of Mexico vis-A -vis its interior in the 1990s but this was reversed in the 2000s. We conclude that the place premium is largely stable, even following large reductions to trade and investment barriers and high migration.

Labour Migration and Risk in India

Internal migration has been a cause of concern and is rampant across India. While migration is a complex issue affected by many different factors, temporal variation in rainfall assumes significant importance as a risk in the rural areas of developing countries. Also important in this context are network effects that reduce the inherent risk at a new destination. Following the theory proposed by the New Economics of Labour Migration, this study investigates the role of risk at origin and risk at destination on a household’s propensity to temporarily and permanently migrate. The study matches household-level migration data from the 64th round of NSS and data with the daily gridded rainfall dataset of 1° ×1° (latitude and longitude) resolution recently released from the Indian Meteorological Department. Risk management behavior of households as a form of coping mechanism in rural areas from where migration for livelihood reasons is incentivized through the agriculture channel is studied by an all-India cross-sectional analysis for 2007-08. Proportion data pertaining to migration propensities of households is estimated using a fractional logit as base model, as well as an ordered logit model. Further, count data pertaining to number of migrant family members in a household is estimated by a poisson regression model. In all specifications, temporal variation in rainfall is found to be a statistically significant factor affecting temporary migration and inter-district permanent migration from rural areas. This variation in rainfall is found not to explain intra-district or inter-state permanent migration. These findings are consistent with the expectations of the study. Due to partial capturing of network effects, they are found to explain intra-district and inter-district migration only. The results of the study make a strong case for risk at origin as an important factor inducing temporary migration and inter-district permanent migration of households from the rural areas of India.

Globalization and Wage Convergence: Mexico and the United States

Neoclassical trade theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased commercial integration. Rising commercial integration and foreign direct investment followed the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Mexico. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between Mexico and the United States between 1988 and 2011. We apply a synthetic panel approach to employment survey data and a more descriptive approach to Census data from Mexico and the US. First, we find no evidence of long-run wage convergence among cohorts characterized by low migration propensities although this was, in part, due to large macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand, we do find some evidence of convergence for workers with high migration propensities. Finally, we find evidence of convergence in the border of Mexico vis-a-vis its interior in the 1990s but this was reversed in the 2000s.

Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico.

In many rural regions of developing countries, natural resource dependency means changes in climate patterns hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. When environmentally-based livelihood options are constrained, migration can become an important adaptive strategy. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we model U.S. emigration from rural communities as related to community, household and climate factors. The results suggest that households subjected to recent drought conditions are far more likely to send a U.S. migrant, but only in communities with strong migration histories. In regions lacking such social networks, rainfall deficits actually reduce migration propensities, perhaps reflecting constraints in the ability to engage in migration as a coping strategy. Policy implications emphasize diversification of rural Mexican livelihoods in the face of contemporary climate change.

A Longitudinal Study of Migration Propensities for Mixed-Ethnic Unions in England and Wales

Most studies investigating residential segregation of ethnic minorities ignore the fact that the majority of adults live in couples. In recent years there has been a growth in the number of mixed-ethnic unions that involve a minority member and a white member. To our knowledge, hardly any research has been undertaken to explicitly examine whether the ethnic mix within households has an impact on the residential mobility of households in terms of the ethnic mix of destination neighbourhoods. Our study addresses this research gap and examines the tendencies of mobility among mixed-ethnic unions in comparison with their co-ethnic peers. We used data from the Longitudinal Study for England and Wales. Our statistical analysis supports the spatial assimilation theory; ethnic minorities move towards less deprived areas and to a lesser extent also towards less ethnically concentrated areas. However, the types of destination neighbourhood of minority people living in mixed-ethnic unions varied greatly with the ethnicity of the ethnic minority partner.

YB-1 Is an Early and Central Mediator of Bacterial and Sterile Inflammation In Vivo

In vitro studies identified Y-box-binding protein (YB)-1 as a key regulator of inflammatory mediators. In this study, we observed increased levels of secreted YB-1 in sera from sepsis patients. This led us to investigate the in vivo role of YB-1 in murine models of acute peritonitis following LPS injection, in sterile renal inflammation following unilateral ureteral obstruction, and in experimental pyelonephritis. LPS injection enhanced de novo secretion of YB-1 into the urine and the peritoneal fluid of LPS-treated mice. Furthermore, we could demonstrate a significant, transient upregulation and posttranslational modification (phosphorylation at serine 102) of YB-1 in renal and inflammatory cells. Increased renal cytoplasmic YB-1 amounts conferred enhanced expression of proinflammatory chemokines CCL2 and CCL5. Along these lines, heterozygous YB-1 knockout mice (YB-1(+/d)) that display 50% reduced YB-1 levels developed significantly lower responses to both LPS and sterile inflammation induced by unilateral ureteral obstruction. This included diminished immune cell numbers due to impaired migration propensities and reduced chemokine expression. YB-1(+/d) mice were protected from LPS-associated mortality (20% mortality on day 3 versus 80% in wild-type controls); however, immunosuppression in YB-1(+/d) animals resulted in 50% mortality. In conclusion, our findings identify YB-1 as a major, nonredundant mediator in both systemic and local inflammatory responses.

Individual and US County Determinants of Repeat Migration: a Comparison of Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics

ABSTRACTContemporary internal migration trends in the US raise questions about the role of community characteristics in shaping individual‐level migration propensities among different racial and ethnic groups. To examine this issue more closely, this research incorporates key county‐level characteristics into a study of repeat migration. With data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth merged with US census data, this study found that heavily populated counties and counties with large concentrations of employment in manufacturing industries reduce the odds of primary outmigration, onward migration to other locations, and return migration to a previous county of residence. Counties with a high degree of natural amenity retain longstanding white residents. Net of individual unemployment, the county‐level unemployment rate hinders primary and onward migration among whites. In support of the cultural constraints hypothesis – a hypothesis that anticipates divergent community‐level effects for minority and majority group members – whites are more likely to engage in repeat migration from counties with smaller shares of non‐Hispanic White population whereas blacks are more likely to engage in repeat migration from areas with larger shares of non‐Hispanic White population. whites and blacks are more likely to move out of counties with larger shares of foreign‐born population. The share of neither non‐Hispanic White population nor foreign‐born population affects Hispanic repeat migration propensities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fiscal Policy, Returns to Skills, and Canada-US Migration: Evidence from the Late 1990s

Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle logit hiérarchique des migrations entre 59 régions du Canada et des États-Unis que nous avons conçu grâce à plus de 70 000 microdonnées portant sur les travailleurs de tous les déciles de la répartition des compétences que comportaient les recensements canadiens et américains de 2000/2001, puis nous faisons des estimations et des simulations. En combinant les données individuelles et et les données régionales, nous pouvons analyser les effets des différences de politiques fiscales des deux pays sur les migrations des travailleurs. Comme nous savons quels sont les travailleurs hautement qualifiés, nous pouvons simuler les effets que des changements en matière d’impôt (en présupposant des budgets équilibrés) auraient autant sur la tendance des individus à migrer que sur l’importance des courants migratoires. Ces simulations suggèrent qu’une augmentation du rendement des compétences après impôt au Canada ainsi que la réduction, au niveau moyen américain, du taux moyen d’imposition canadien (avec compensation des réductions des dépenses pour maintenir la neutralité budgétaire) réduiraient effectivement les migrations vers les États-Unis, particulièrement parmi les travailleurs hautement qualifiés. Toutefois, les réductions des taux d’imposition et des dépenses publiques nécessaires pour produire ce résultat étant relativement élevées, cela soulèverait des questions touchant des politiques publiques importantes dans d’autres domaines.

Couples' Education and Regional Mobility – the Importance of Occupation, Income and Gender

ABSTRACTPeople with high education are more geographically mobile than people with lower education. Further, highly educated men are more mobile than highly educated women, and the man's education affects couples' migration propensities more than the woman's. This study examines whether the reasons for the higher migration propensities among highly educated people are the occupational characteristics and income commonly associated with high education. Further, the study examines whether the reason for the asymmetric effect of men's education relative to women's is that these occupational characteristics and income are unevenly distributed between men and women with similar educational levels. I studied dual‐earner couples, with common children, residing in Sweden in 1997–2006. Results from logistic regressions indicate that both men's and women's education are positively related to couples' migration propensities, and that men's education has a larger impact on migration than women's, before adjusting for income and occupational characteristics. A substantial portion of the increased risk of migration among highly educated people can be attributed to income and occupational characteristics. Also, to a large extent, the differential effects of men's and women's education can be explained by the different types of occupations held by men and women within the same educational level, as well as by gender differences in monetary returns from education. When adjusting for these differences, only very minor gender differences in the effect of education remain. Despite theories on gender ideology, which implies men's attributes would dominate migration decisions, occupational characteristics have similar effects for men and women. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.