Migration Decisions Research Articles

Resilience in a noisy urban system

The ability of cities to recuperate from disturbances and return to their evolutionary pathways depends, first and foremost, on the type of damage that the shock created. But in addition, it depends on how information is transmitted in the urban system and on how noise filters distort the information that reaches economic agents. So long as the transmission of information does not disturb the functioning of the urban economy, shocks do not prevent the return to the long‐run evolutionary paths. We study the migration decisions of agents, following information that they receive using an agent‐based model of endogenous growth in a closed urban system. These decisions affect the spread of innovative ideas, of innovations, and the birth rate of new firms. The aggregate reactions of agents to shocks can affect the resilience of the entire urban system and of individual cities, sometimes allowing a return to the same domain, and sometimes driving the system and parts of its constituents to another regime of behavior. We analyze the repercussion of shocks on the resilience of urban systems by considering how noise in the transmission of information affects the decisions of agents at various times and locations. The conclusions are that, while information noise is a burden that constantly and systematically hinders the economic potential of the system, financial shocks reshuffle resources causing a fundamental change in the urban system trajectories.

Intermarriage and housing upon separation. A matter of resources and bargaining power?

AbstractObjectiveThis paper examines post‐separation residential outcomes in immigrant, native, and immigrant–native mixed (married and cohabiting) couples.BackgroundPrevious research showed that women were more likely to leave the family home upon separation than men, indicating a weaker bargaining position.MethodUsing linked survey and register data from Switzerland, we estimate two post‐separation mobility outcomes: who leaves the family home and to what distance this person relocates. By distinguishing male and female partners by migrant origin, we consider how gendered power imbalances interact with migration status to create specific bargaining dynamics within households.ResultsAmong immigrant–native mixed couples, the immigrant ex‐partner (regardless of gender) was significantly more likely to move out of the joint home following separation. The likelihood of moving (abroad) after separation was highest for recently arrived immigrant women.ConclusionThe results suggest that migration status brings in a new dimension of bargaining within separating couples, which affects the gender‐specific residential mobility outcomes reported in previous studies. Although family migration decisions are generally biased toward the human capital of men, this study shows the advantage of the native partner in immigrant–native couples.

Unveiling Sri Lanka's brain drain and labour market pressure: A study of macroeconomic factors on migration.

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of GDP per capita income (GDPPCI), unemployment, higher education (HE), and economic growth (EG) on migration in Sri Lanka. Numerous global and local studies have explored the influence of macroeconomic and socioeconomic factors on migration. In the Sri Lankan context, fewer studies have probed the impact of GDPPCI, unemployment, HE, and EG on migration, particularly concerning brain drain and domestic labour market pressure. An applied research methodology was adopted, utilising annual data from 1986 to 2022. The statistical data were sourced from reports by the Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment (SLBFE), the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Labor Force Survey Data from the Department of Census and Statistics (LFSDCS), and University Grants Commissions (UGC). This study utilised the Vector Error Correlation model (VECM), Vector Auto-regression (VAR), and Granger Causality test through STATA. The empirical findings of the VAR model highlighted that GDPPCI and EG negatively impact migration, whereas unemployment and HE positively affect migration. The study's implications demonstrated that GDPPCI, unemployment, HE, and EG were the primary factors influencing the country's migration decisions. These findings will hopefully inform and guide the Sri Lankan government and policymakers for more effective decision-making.

The effects of precipitation shocks on rural labour markets and migration

ABSTRACT The welfare of workers in rural areas is highly affected by agricultural output volatility, caused in part by weather shocks. A volatile source of income is an important factor in inducing migration. While the impact of rainfall shocks on migration is well studied, the channels through which these shocks affect migration are underexplored. In this paper we study the hypothesis that the labour market is an avenue that carries the effect of precipitation shocks on migration. This paper first establishes the effect of precipitation shocks on the labour market. We use individual-level data combined with station-based precipitation data of Iran at the rural-agglomeration level in a fixed-effects panel-data model to find that workers in agriculture and industry sectors decrease their hours of work in response to negative shocks. We then use a linear probability model to show that negative shocks almost double the probability of migration and labour-migration for young men in Iran. Estimations of this paper indicate that as unemployment rate in rural areas increases, migration out of those regions rises as well. Additionally, controlling for the local labour market conditions at origin captures the impact of shocks on migration, implying the labour market is a channel through which precipitation shocks affect migratory decisions.

Adapting to sea level rise: migration decisions and disaster mitigation strategies in small-scale fishing communities

This study explores the adaptation process of small-scale fishing families in Demak, Java, in response to sea level rise and tidal floods. Qualitative research methods are used to investigate the factors influencing families’ decisions to relocate. Findings indicate that families employ home elevation as a short-term adaptation measure, but severe floods eventually lead to the challenging decision of permanent migration. The study highlights the interplay of physical, social, and economic factors in shaping migration decisions. While short-term strategies provide partial relief, migration emerges as a vital long-term resilience strategy. Mitigation efforts involve coastal protection, wetland restoration, land use planning, and climate change adaptation measures. The study emphasises the need for tailored, context-specific strategies and integration of sea level rise considerations into broader climate change mitigation efforts. Overall, understanding migration decisions and implementing targeted disaster mitigation strategies are crucial for enhancing the resilience of coastal communities facing sea level rise.

The Determinants of Internal Migration in an Emerging Market: Evidence from Vietnam

Internal migration has been a challenging issue for Vietnam in the past three decades, with swift industrialization and urbanization at the two ends of the country—the capital city, Hanoi, in the north and the largest city, Ho Chi Minh City, in the south. This study identifies the determinants of internal migration with a focus on the characteristics of Vietnamese households and the household heads, together with their living conditions. A logit model is used in our analysis in three scenarios: (a) the entire sample of 8,567 households, (b) a sub-sample of households in the rural regions and (c) a sub-sample of households in the urban regions using the latest 2020 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey. Our empirical results indicate that migration decisions are strongly associated with the characteristics of the households and the household heads, including household income, size, age of the household heads and educational attainment. We also find that living conditions such as radiation and rainfall are inversely related to the decisions for internal migration in Vietnam, meaning that people living in locations with unfavourable rainfall are more likely to migrate to destinations with more favourable rainfall conditions.

Economic, social and psychological drivers of labor trafficking and its impacts: A case study on returned Bangladeshi survivors

Irregular maritime migration from Bangladesh to Malaysia presents serious risks for Bangladeshi laborers who seek work overseas to change their precarious living conditions. Survivors’ voices are often unheard and their motivation and experiences are largely undocumented. This study details the accounts of 25 survivors of labor trafficking, all men, from three major trafficking hubs in Bangladesh. Interviews with selected stakeholders provide insights into this industry and its business model. The study seeks to understand how and why decisions to undertake the journey were made. It details the multi-faceted consequences for survivors, including loss of key assets (e.g., land, livestock, cash and future work opportunities). Most of the survivors never reached their planned destination and only two persons secured work for more than six months. As a direct result of migration, most moved from living marginally below the poverty line at pre-departure to extreme poverty. Migration, precarity and motivation theories help explain the perspectives and migration decisions of the research participants. These insights can inform policymakers to develop more holistic prevention, prosecution and reintegration measures.

Adapting for Well-Being: Examining Acculturation Strategies and Mental Health among Latina Immigrants

This study investigates how assimilation and integration, two commonly studied acculturation forms, help immigrant Latinas cope with acculturative stress and related psychological distress. It employs the Ecological Framework for Understanding Immigration (EFUI), merging Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Systems Theory and the Socioecological Model as a comprehensive approach. Through multigroup analysis, various factors significantly affect the psychological distress of immigrant Latinas, including financial constraints, contentment with migration decisions, age, and adherence to familial values. Acculturative stress relates to English proficiency, racial discrimination experiences, U.S. residency duration, and contentment with the migration choice. The moderating effects of assimilation and integration vary, influencing psychological distress and acculturative stress differently in each group. In conclusion, this study uncovers complex coping mechanisms used by immigrant Latina individuals facing acculturative stress and highlights the protective role of assimilation, the importance of familismo, the impact of financial constraints, and the significance of racial discrimination. This finding underscores the need for mental health interventions to respect and incorporate Latinx individuals’ cultural values and beliefs, promoting positive mental health outcomes.

Cross Border Migration in India and its Global Implication

Abstract: Cross-border migration is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon with far-reaching implications for nations worldwide. This research paper focuses on examining the dynamics of cross-border migration, using India as a case study to understand its historical roots, current trends, and wide-ranging consequences. The paper begins by providing an overview of the significance of studying global migration patterns and introduces the historical context of cross-border migration in India, shaped by colonial influences and the partition in 1947. Subsequently, the paper delves into contemporary trends in cross-border migration, analysing recent data to find key drivers and motivations behind individuals' decisions to migrate. Economic implications of migration are explored, highlighting both the positive contributions of skilled labour influx and the challenges associated with brain drain and dependency on remittances. Social dynamics of cross-border migration are examined, focusing on cultural diversity, social integration, and the challenges and opportunities presented by cultural shifts. Additionally, the paper addresses environmental factors in migration decisions, considering the implications of climate change on migration patterns. Through case studies, the paper provides a human perspective on cross-border migration, highlighting individual experiences and outcomes. Finally, the paper synthesizes key findings and discusses potential future developments and areas for further research, aiming to contribute to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding cross-border migration and its global implications.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Repeat Migration Decisions of Indonesian Migrant Workers

This research aims to empirically test the influence of income, education, number of family dependents, age, and marital status on the repeat migration decisions of Indonesian migrant workers in Sakra village. The sample of this research is Indonesian migrant workers in Sakra village. Data collection was carried out by distributing questionnaires directly to 40 Indonesian migrant workers in Sakra village. The statistical method uses logistic regression analysis (binary logistic), Wald test, and pseudo R² with the results of income, education, and number of family dependents having a positive influence on the decision to re-migrate Indonesian migrant workers in Sakra village, age having a significant negative influence and marital status having a significant influence positively influencing the decision to re-migrate Indonesian migrant workers in Sakra village.

Climate change as a veiled driver of migration in Bangladesh and Ghana

People living in deltaic areas in developing countries are especially prone to suffer the effects from natural disasters due to their geographical and economic structure. Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events affecting the environmental conditions of deltas, threatening the socioeconomic development of people and, eventually, triggering migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate change will likely contribute to worsening environmental stress in deltas, and understanding the relations between climate change, environmental impacts, socioeconomic conditions, and migration is emerging as a key element for planning climate adaptation. In this study, we use data from migration surveys and econometric techniques to analyse the extent to which environmental impacts affect individual migration decision-making in two delta regions in Bangladesh and Ghana. The results show that, in both deltas, climatic shocks that negatively affect economic security are significant drivers of migration, although the surveyed households do not identify environmental pressures as the root cause of the displacement. Furthermore, environmental impacts affecting food security and crop and livestock production are also significant as events inducing people to migrate, but only in Ghana. We also find that suffering from environmental stress can intensify or reduce the effects of socioeconomic drivers. In this sense, adverse climatic shocks may not only have a direct impact on migration but may also condition migration decisions indirectly through the occupation, the education, or the marital status of the person. We conclude that although climate change and related environmental pressures are not perceived as key drivers of migration, they affect migration decisions through indirect channels (e.g., reducing economic security or reinforcing the effect of socioeconomic drivers).

Forecasting first-year student mobility using explainable machine learning techniques

In the context of regional sciences and migration studies, gravity and radiation models are typically used to estimate human spatial mobility of all kinds. These formal models are incorporated as part of regression models along with co-variates, to better represent regional specific aspects. Often, the correlations between dependent and independent variables are of non-linear type and follow complex spatial interactions and multicollinearity. To address some of the model-related obstacles and to arrive at better predictions, we introduce machine learning algorithm class XGBoost to the estimation of spatial interactions and provide useful statistics and visual representations for the model evaluation and the evaluation and interpretation of the independent variables. The methods suggested are used to study the case of the spatial mobility of high-school graduates to the enrolment in higher education institutions in Germany at the county-level. We show that machine learning techniques can deliver explainable results that compare to traditional regression modeling. In addition to typically high model fits, variable-based indicators such as the Shapley Additive Explanations value (SHAP) provide significant additional information on the differentiated and non-linear effect of the variable values. For instance, we provide evidence that the initial study location choice is not related to the quality of local labor-markets in general, as there are both, strong positive and strong negative effects of the local academic employment rates on the migration decision. When controlling for about 28 co-variates, the attractiveness of the study location itself is the most important single factor of influence, followed by the classical distance-related variables travel time (gravitation) and regional opportunities (radiation). We show that machine learning methods can be transparent, interpretable, and explainable, when employed with adequate domain-knowledge and flanked by additional calculations and visualizations related to the model evaluation.

Energetic trade-offs in migration decision-making, reproductive effort and subsequent parental care in a long-distance migratory bird.

Migratory species trade-off long-distance movement with survival and reproduction, but the spatio-temporal scales at which these decisions occur are relatively unknown. Technological and statistical advances allow fine-scale study of animal decision-making, improving our understanding of possible causes and therefore conservation management. We quantified effects of reproductive preparation during spring migration on subsequent breeding outcomes, breeding outcomes on autumn migration characteristics and autumn migration characteristics on subsequent parental survival in Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris). These are long-distance migratory birds with an approximately 50% population decline from 1999 to 2022. We deployed GPS-acceleration devices on adult females to quantify up to 5 years of individual decision-making throughout the annual cycle. Weather and habitat-use affected time spent feeding and overall dynamic body acceleration (i.e. energy expenditure) during spring and autumn. Geese that expended less energy and fed longer during spring were more likely to successfully reproduce. Geese with offspring expended more energy and fed for less time during autumn, potentially representing adverse fitness consequences of breeding. These behavioural comparisons among Greenland white-fronted geese improve our understanding of fitness trade-offs underlying abundance. We provide a reproducible framework for full annual cycle modelling using location and behaviour data, applicable to similarly studied migratory animals.

A relational analysis of migration in old age: How transnational ties affect migration decisions

AbstractRecently, the role of personal ties in migration decisions has received considerable attention. However, this aspect has seldom been studied in the context of retirement. This paper addresses this gap by shedding light on the composition of personal networks, types of mobility patterns and retirement locations for four groups of older adults. To this end, two methodological approaches are employed: (1) a qualitative Social Network Analysis to examine the composition of older adults' personal networks and (2) thematic coding to analyse the relational aspects of migration decisions. This paper draws on 29 semi‐structured interviews conducted in Spain and Switzerland in 2020 and 2021. The findings demonstrate that pre‐retirement migration trajectories shape personal network composition. Moreover, personal ties play a critical role in older adults' mobility patterns and choices of retirement location. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the impact of personal networks on migration decisions of older adults.

Hybrid learning based service migration for cost minimization with deadlines in multi-user mobile edge computing systems

Mobile edge computing, a new computing model, aims to reduce network latency and improve user experience by placing computing resources closer to the users. However, when users move away from the current service areas, the quality of services will decline. To guarantee the quality of services, service migration technique is proposed and studied. Due to the wireless resource contention among users, there is service migration decision-making coupling among multiple users. Meanwhile, making real-time service migration decisions for multiple users to minimize service cost with application deadlines remains an open challenge because of the huge state space. In this paper, we formalize the service migration problem with deadlines as a Markov decision process (MDP) and propose a hybrid learning based service migration strategy. The proposed approach integrates Monte Carlo method and DQN learning, which adopts online training without Q-values and neural network approximation to generate service migration decisions for multiple users. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid learning based service migration strategy outperforms the existing migration strategies in terms of service success ratio and service cost.

Humanising research on migration decision-making: a situated framework.

The question of why some people (re)migrate while others choose to stay remains one of the important preoccupations in migration studies. It underlines the need to further conceptualise transnational migration to identify the drivers behind individuals' aspiration or intention to (re)migrate or stay where they are. Drawing from several migration theories and perspectives in various disciplines, this paper proposes the situated framework of "humanising research on migration decision-making", that is, highlighting its human aspects. This scholarly enterprise is critically important as mainstream migration theories put more emphasis on individuals' rationality and some life dimensions, thereby overlooking other human aspects of migration and stasis. Viewing individuals as persons, this framework offers three ways to humanise the analysis: thick contextualisation, life dimensions-focused analysis, and time-situated inquiry. It also calls for the engendering of the analysis and decolonising the methodologies adopted in the study of (non-)migration decision-making.

Can European foreign aid motivate people to stay in Africa? The root causes policy debate and irregular migration

AbstractMotivationIn European policy debate, conflict, economic crisis, lack of development, population growth, and climate change are often seen as the root causes of migration from Africa. To deter irregular migration to Europe, aid has thus been directed towards these perceived causes. This seems, however, not to deter irregular migration.PurposeWe explore the discrepancy between the official discourse of root causes and insights from research on migration decisions; and how discourse and evidence relate to aid. We ask what kind of policy change is needed if aid is possibly used to influence irregular migration. We focus on the motivations and drivers of migration and how development co‐operation may influence these.Methods and approachConsidering African migration to Europe, we examine the official European discourse on root causes of irregular migration, highlight recent developments in the academic understanding of migration aspirations and drivers, and investigate various attempts to analyse the impact of foreign aid on assumed “root causes” and migration.FindingsMigration is influenced by drivers that differ according to the specific context in which potential migrants decide to migrate or not. Aid to influence migration must be thoroughly adapted to the circumstances of potential migrants. Addressing so‐called root causes may be irrelevant to many potential migrants and will require long‐term change to have any impact. It may even increase migration in the short term. Foreign aid that adopts a blueprint regardless of context is unlikely to deter irregular migration in the short or medium term.Policy implicationsIf irregular African migration to Europe is to be deterred through development co‐operation, European policy‐makers and development practitioners need to elaborate and differentiate between aid‐supported activities through careful understanding of the migration dynamics specific to individual localities and societies.

Syrian crises effect on specialty choice and the decision to work in the country among residents of six major hospitals in Syria, Damascus.

Assessing the impact of war on medical residents' specialty choices and migration decisions is critical to ensure the sustainability of healthcare systems worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the Syrian crisis on specialty choices, related factors, and decisions to work in Syria among residents of six major university hospitals in Damascus. A cross-sectional study was conducted using a validated questionnaire from 20/4/2022 to 20/5/2022, including all eligible residents with no missing data. The questionnaire was comprised of 68 items, and residents were divided into two groups: group 1 included residents who made their specialty choice after the end of the military war in Damascus 2018, while group 2 included residents who made their specialty choice (the point of submitting their lists and applying for residency) during the war. A total of 370 residents were included, with 38.4% females and 61.6% males. Our findings revealed that 30% of residents preferred working in Syria, while 43.5% preferred working abroad. The factor of a "safer and more stable life" was significantly higher in Group 1 than in Group 2 (3.86>3.5, p-value = 0.026). Additionally, Group 1 residents were more likely to choose radiology, pathology, laboratory, and psychiatry specialization as their specialties, while choosing surgical specializations and hematology decreased compared to Group 2 (p-value<0.05). Factors related to social life were rated higher by group 1 (mean = 3.31) than by group 2 (mean = 2.27, Standard deviation = 0.19, p-value = 0.002). Moreover, the factor of "a specialization to facilitate traveling abroad" was significantly higher in Group 1 (2.69>2.21, Standard deviation = 0.22, p-value = 0.033). The Syrian crisis and its economic aftermath have influenced residents' specialty choices and practice locations. Even after the war's end, the high level of migration intentions could negatively affect the quality of provided healthcare services.

Why Do Hungarian Health Workers Migrate? A Micro-Level Analysis

The sustainability of healthcare systems is challenged by the international migration of health workers in many countries. Like other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, a great number of health professionals from Hungary have emigrated recently, increasing the shortage of health workers in the country. The aim of this study is to explore the migration attitudes of Hungarian health workers, applying a micro-level approach of push–pull factors. For this purpose, semi-structured interviews have been conducted with practicing and inactive Hungarian health professionals living in Hungary and abroad. The interviews were subjected to a thematic analysis, and the following groups of factors were revealed and discussed: wealth and income, workplace, human capital, quality of life, family, personal network, and personality. In addition, geography and life stage (life course) as two overarching, integrative categories are also discussed. The results point to the role of income, work environment, and family in migration decisions. As a new factor, the importance of geographical characteristics (local context, distance) is also explored, which has received less attention in previous studies. A novelty of our study is the CEE post-socialist point of view, mirrored by the life-path elements of the interviews. Another novelty is the qualitative and micro-level approach, forming the basis of policy recommendations presented at the end of our study.

The Entanglement Between Tangible and Intangible Factors in Shaping Hadiya Migration Aspirations to South Africa

This article expands scholarly knowledge on migration decision-making drawing on the case of Hadiya (Southern Ethiopia) migration to South Africa. We propose a conceptual framework where intangible factors (religious beliefs, imaginations, norms, and emotions, and feelings) are placed at the core of decision-making, alongside more tangible factors, such as livelihood opportunities. Even though we differentiate between intangible and tangible, we reject any opposition between the two, arguing that they inform and reinforce each other. The Hadiya—South Africa migration corridor emerged from a foundational evangelical Christian prophecy in 2001, which coincided with other events in the Hadiya zone, such as increasing pressure on farmlands, the politicization of internal migration, and more liberal migration policies. Drawing on extensive qualitative data, we focus on the relevance of intangible factors in Hadiya migration to South Africa, bringing to the fore an understudied aspect of decision-making. Showing the centrality of such aspects in Hadiya respondent's life stories, we argue that only by looking at the interplay of intangible and tangible factors we can reach a better understanding of the complex dynamic of migration decision-making.