Migration Flows Research Articles

Migration-connected networks of Lotka–Volterra and quasi-polynomial systems: modeling and decentralized control

AbstractThis paper introduces a modeling and a control approach for Lotka-Volterra systems that are interconnected through population size-dependent migration flows. First, a control-oriented model is proposed for networks of Lotka-Volterra systems. Based on this model, a decentralized control method is introduced which assures that the states of each Lotka-Volterra system in the network can be driven into a prescribed setpoint regardless of migration. The results have been generalized to quasi-polynomial systems, and networks of Lotka-Volterra systems having interconnections with distributed delay. Simulation experiments are also presented in the paper to show the implementability of the theoretical results.

Climate variability and worldwide migration: Current evidence and future projections

Abstract The literature linking climatic drivers and migration is growing, but there is still limited evidence and substantial uncertainty regarding future bilateral flows driven by climate stress on a global scale. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by projecting changes in the flows of international migrants from medium-term population and climate change projections. We employ a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in the origin countries. We use the parameter estimates of the gravity equation to estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows for several combinations of socio-economic development and climate change. Results indicate that global emigration flows are projected to increase to around 110 million in 2060 for SSP1 and RCP 4.5 and SSP5 and RCP 4.5; to 135 million for SSP5 and RCP 8.5; to 163 million for SSP3 and RCP 4.5. We report that changes in emigration flows are largely due to population growth in the origin countries.

Temporal Patterns in Migration Flows Evidence from South Sudan

ABSTRACTWhat explains the variation in migration flows over time and space? Existing work has contributed to a rich understanding of the factors that affect why and when people leave. What is less understood are the dynamics of migration flows over time. Existing work typically focuses on static variables at the country‐year level and ignores the temporal dynamics. Are there recurring temporal patterns in migration flows? And can we use these patterns to improve our forecasts of the number of migrants? Here, we introduce new methods to uncover temporal sequences—motifs—in the number of migrants over time and use these motifs for forecasting. By developing a multivariable shape similarity‐based model, we show that temporal patterns do exist. Moreover, using these patterns results in better out‐of‐sample forecasts than a benchmark of statistical and neural networks models. We apply the new method to the case of South Sudan.

The Globalization of International Migration? A Conceptual and Data‐Driven Synthesis

AbstractAlthough the globalization of international migration is commonly accepted as a general tendency in contemporary migration patterns (de Haas, Castles, and Miller 2020, 9), the corresponding body of empirical evidence is mixed and fragmented. Our review of global migration patterns over the past half‐century highlights how the theories, expectations, and ultimately findings may vary depending on the specific definitions, vantage points, and measures being used. In this paper, we provide a simpler and integrated account of the globalization of international migration that includes a corresponding empirical template to quantify the relative importance of two processes at work: the intensity and connectivity of international migration. Using recent estimates of country‐to‐country migration flows every five years from 1990–1995 to 2015–2020, our analysis using demographic decomposition and group‐based multitrajectory modeling highlights the dynamic relationship between intensity and connectivity from both the global and country vantage points. Our work in this paper provides a starting point in the form of a much‐needed empirical template, one that is also highly flexible and customizable, for future research on the globalization of international migration to coalesce around and use going forward.

Migration response to an immigration shock: evidence from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine

Abstract This article examines the impact of the massive and unexpected inflow of Ukrainians that resulted from Russia’s aggression in 2014 on local migration patterns in Poland. For identification, I use an instrumental variable approach drawing on unique historical data on the forced resettlement of Ukrainians in Poland after World War II. The results show that the regional inflow of immigrants, while crowding out internal in-migration, decreases both internal and international out-migration of the local population. I provide supportive evidence that the decrease in out-migration is due to an enlargement of local labor markets.

Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze the impact of natural hazards on internal migration in the United States (US). The analysis uses Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax records and analyzes different versions of a gravity model to assess the impact of economic damage caused by natural hazards on migration flows between counties. We find that natural hazards in the origin county are associated to larger outflows, with hurricanes exhibiting the most substantial impact on migration, followed by floodings and severe storms. These results emphasize the need for migration research that distinguishes between various types of hazards. Furthermore, we extend the gravity model to investigate whether people tend to relocate to relatively nearby areas in response to natural hazards, an established phenomenon in existing literature. For floods and severe storms, the analysis demonstrates that migration flows to nearby counties are comparatively larger than to distant counties. These findings may be concerning, as it implies that individuals could still be at a high risk of experiencing future disasters. Additionally, we provide several robustness checks to investigate to what extent our results are driven by extreme events in the dataset.

The effects of internal migration on regional convergence: Evidence from Serbia

The paper investigates the effects of internal migration flows on regional convergence in Serbia, a country with large regional disparities, during the period 2000–2018. For this purpose, we implement both the net and the gross (in- and out-) migration approaches. We undertake separate analyses for different categories of the migrant population to explore the impact of migrations involving different levels of human capital. The results show that internal migration flows between NUTS3 units in the observed period mainly fostered divergence, thus contradicting the neoclassical theory. This effect is especially pronounced when considering migrations of the active population and prime-age specialists.

Incidence of unemployment and poverty on migration flows in the South-North international corridor (1990–2022). An econometric panel data approach

The aim of this research is to determine the incidence of socioeconomic variables in migration flows from the main countries of origin that form part of the international South-North migration corridor, such as Mexico, China, India, and the Philippines, during the 1990–2022 period. The independent variables considered are GDP per capita, unemployment, poverty, higher education, and public health, while the dependent variable is migration flows. An econometric panel data model is implemented. The tests conducted indicate that all variables have an integration order of I (1) and exhibit long-term equilibrium. The econometric models used, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), reveal that unemployment and poverty had the strongest influence on migration flows. In both models, within this international migration corridor, GDP per capita, higher education, and health follow in order of importance.

Assessing Sustainable Urbanization in Small Cities: A Life Satisfaction Perspective Using the Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

In recent years, small cities have experienced rapid development, and the living standards of their residents have increasingly approximated those of larger urban centers. Due to their smaller scale, these cities have inherent advantages in transitioning to sustainable development models. The post-pandemic era, characterized by job reductions in large cities and the economic appeal of lower living costs, has seen a migration flow from large to small cities. The Chinese government has traditionally emphasized urban growth. While recent policies have started to incorporate environmental considerations, there remains a limited focus on the well-being and living conditions of city inhabitants. This study aims to evaluate the sustainable urbanization of small cities from a life satisfaction perspective, emphasizing indicators closely related to residents' well-being. Employing the Delphi method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), this research identifies persuasive evaluation metrics tailored to the unique contexts of small cities. This work addresses the research gap in sustainable development indicators at the small city level. By emphasizing the perspective of residents' quality of life, it advocates for local governments to prioritize the well-being and experiences of their inhabitants.

Interrelationship between Migration, Employment and Economic Growth in the United States: A Dynamic Analysis from 1990 to 2022

The study aims to explore the intricate relationships between migration flows, employment dynamics, and economic growth in the United States from 1990 to 2022. Specifically, it assesses the impact of refugee admissions and legal permanent residents on GDP and GDP per capita in both the short and long term. A comprehensive econometric approach was employed, including correlation analysis, regression modeling, and dynamic trend evaluation. The study tested three hypotheses concerning the effects of employment growth on GDP, the distinct impacts of different migration flows, and the influence of these factors on employment rates. The study utilizes data from Statista for employment and migration figures, and GDP data from the World Bank. The analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between employment rates and GDP (r = - 0.701, p < 0.001) and GDP per capita (r = - 0.686, p < 0.001), indicating that declining employment rates are associated with increased economic output. Employment growth, counterintuitively, correlates negatively with GDP, suggesting that other factors such as productivity and technological advancements offset labor market contractions. Key results highlight the differentiated economic contributions of various migrant categories and their implications for policy. The findings underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of migration’s impact on the U.S. economy. While migration generally contributes positively in the long term, short-term challenges, particularly from refugee admissions, can strain economic resources. The study highlights the need for tailored economic and integration policies to maximize the benefits of migration while mitigating its challenges.

Improving the healthcare response to migrants landing in Lampedusa through a multimodal strategy.

Abstract Issue Lampedusa island is a crucial Italian entry point for migrants and the only health facility is the outpatient clinic that relies on the helicopter transfer to the mainland for urgencies. When the influx of migrants -and of tourists- increases, the health demand burden rises. Moreover, the plurality of the actors involved in migrants’ reception and assistance makes healthcare organization complex. In 2023, 115.000 arrivals were recorded with an increase of pregnant migrants transferred by helicopter; moreover, the lack of an EMTs-equipped ambulance and coordination gaps between actors were raised. Description of the practice Also paving on law 50/2023, in 2023 INMP and other institutions promoted a multimodal strategy to support healthcare in Lampedusa. A needs assessment grounded on settings and processes field observation and key stakeholders’ structured interviews was designed. Hence, an equipped ambulance service was set in September 2023 and an obstetric triage (ObT) procedure for pregnant migrants was tested. Further, operational protocols for migrants’ health have been drafted and enclosed in a MoU signed between key institutions, and a dedicated Committee monitoring protocol implementation was also set. Results Until now the ambulance has carried out 242 operations, mostly in response to community requests and ObT has led to using helicopter solely for real Ob urgencies. Also, the MoU has improved the coordination between actors, and the monitoring Committee-just settled-has already identified new priorities such as of defining a procedure for pregnant migrants requesting pregnancy termination. Lessons A multimodal strategy based on field assessment, enhancing coordination between actors and rolling-out of shared procedures has improved the effectiveness, efficiency and appropriateness of healthcare in Lampedusa, requiring a slight increase in resources. Remarkably, the healthcare reinforcing results in beneficial also for the general population. Key messages • Massive influx of migrants in Lampedusa has required strengthening health services on the island. • Evidence-based interventions based on needs assessment have improved healthcare for both migrants and the general population.

Living conditions in Italian administrative detention centres for migrants: a scoping review

Abstract Since 2011, Italy has experienced a growing flow of migrants, despite the implementation of restrictive and detention-oriented procedures. Detention facilities for migrants must provide health protection and general assistance to the person. Considering the critical state of the centres reported by various sources, this study gives an overview of the conditions in Italian detention facilities for migrants from a public health perspective. A scoping search of the peer-reviewed and grey literature was performed to investigate the public health standards currently in force in Italian detention facilities for migrants and refugees (Hotspot and CPR-Pre-removal Detention Centres). Articles published from 2009 to 2021 in English and Italian were included and qualitatively described in five categories: provision of healthcare, living conditions, protection of vulnerable detainees, access to legal advice, and the Covid-19 pandemic. 11 peer-reviewed studies and 24 grey documents were included. Guidelines on screening procedures for infectious diseases or vaccines appeared to be hastily followed; chronic and mental diseases were not appropriately addressed. The facilities were described as run-down, with scarce and poor-quality meals, and lacking of educational activities. A lack of protection for vulnerable categories was reported, including unaccompanied minors. The Covid-19 pandemic further exacerbated pre-existing issues, highlighting systemic weaknesses in preparedness and response. Life conditions within the centres for migrants in Italy fall significantly short of acceptable standards. The main problems are the unavailability of cultural mediation services and the insufficient protection of mental health. The overall conditions appeared to be not dignifying and violations of the law are, if not frequent, present and well recognised. Urgent reforms are warranted to address these shortcomings and ensure the humane treatment and protection of migrants within these facilities. Key messages • Italy is responding to the recent inflow of migrants with policies oriented to detention and repatriation. To this, it established de-facto detention centres for migrants, namely Hotspot and CPRs. • The public health standards of migrants’ repatriation centres are poorly followed and life inside the centres appears misereble.

Migrants and Xenophobic Attacks in South Africa: Theory and Evidence

Acts of xenophobia are a persistent feature of life in South Africa. Daily animosity often spills over into violence against both locals and mostly migrants and their economic enterprises. One argument is that xenophobia has characterized post-apartheid South Africa partly due to increased migration flows. Can migration cause xenophobia? Using data from Xenowatch Reports, we examine the impact of migration flows from Zimbabwe on the onset and persistence of acts of collective violence targeted at foreign nationals’ lives and their foreign-owned businesses in South Africa. Results show that increased migration flows from Zimbabwe into South Africa leads to ethnic polarization, cultural diversity, and intolerance by residents toward immigrants. The variable migrants has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on xenophobia. However, migration can impact xenophobia through inducing ethnic fractionalization, cultural diversity and ethnic polarization, intolerance, and hostility with the coefficients of ethnic fractionalization and cultural diversity being positive and statistically significant and supporting the hypothesis that more migration flows from Zimbabwe lead to more xenophobic attacks in South Africa. These findings aid our understanding of the economic consequences of xenophobia. JEL codes: Q15, Q32, Q54

Women as cultural agents: Double coloniality, gender and diasporic memories of ethnic Greek Georgian women

In 2021, the world commemorated the 30th anniversary of the end of the Cold War, a half-century of ideological rivalry and divisions that left few societies untouched. ‘Cold War state of mind’, as the title of the book of Matthew Dune stated, with the primacy it gave to nation-states, overlooked issues of not belonging in dominant majorities and hegemonic cultures, for example, ethnic minorities and diasporas. In this framework, Greek-speaking communities in the former Soviet Union seemed to draw from their cultural background to become rooted in the Soviet ethnic mosaic but also to increase their social capital which in the 1990s turned to an important transnational value due to the migrant flows from Georgia to Greece. This article follows the life stories of two ethnic Greek women over the time of three decades through their memories since the 1980s, from the Black Sea region to Greece, to discuss how they address the post-socialist demand for an integration to the free market and how their double coloniality as Soviet and diasporic subjects interweaves with this demand.

Migration and Economic Development: The Role of Migrant Flows in Shaping Turkey’s Emerging Economy and Uncovering Hidden Conflicts and Challenges

This research examines the economic impact of migration on Turkey's emerging economy, with a particular focus on the contributions of migrant remittances, labor market dynamics, and the socio-political challenges associated with large-scale migrant flows. By employing econometric models and field research, the study explores the relationship between remittance inflows and key economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment rates, and poverty reduction. Additionally, the research uncovers hidden conflicts and social tensions that arise from migration, including labor market inequalities and integration challenges faced by both migrants and Turkish workers. The project evaluates government policies, such as the EU-Turkey refugee agreement, and their effects on economic development and social stability. Field research in migrant-receiving communities reveals the complexities of labor competition and the social dynamics created by migrant dependency in sectors such as agriculture and construction. Findings highlight the need for inclusive migration policies that balance the economic benefits of remittances with the social integration challenges faced by migrant populations. This study also advocates for stronger labor protections and regulatory reforms to mitigate tensions and reduce exploitation in low-wage sectors. The research contributes to the broader understanding of migration’s role in shaping Turkey’s economy and provides insights for policymakers seeking to address both the economic and social dimensions of migration.

Macroeconomic impact of forced migration on Lebanon with a focus on labor market dynamics and policy strategies for sustainable economic growth

This article explores the profound macroeconomic consequences of forced migration on Lebanon's economy, with a specific focus on labor market dynamics. Drawing from extensive research and analysis, the study examines the factors driving migration, its impacts on the labor market, and the resultant economic challenges. It delves into the wage disparities, employment rates, and the informal sector's expansion due to the influx of migrants. The article also evaluates existing public policies and proposes strategic interventions aimed at fostering migrant integration and promoting sustainable economic growth. By addressing these critical issues, the forced aims to provide comprehensive policy recommendations to mitigate the adverse effects of forced migration and enhance Lebanon's economic resilience.

Contentious politics in the borderlands: How nonviolence and migrant characteristics affect public attitudes

New political issues and opportunities lead new actors into contentious politics. This article studies one such case: transnational migrants making claims and engaging in collective action when traversing state borders. As global migration flows and accompanying political backlash has grown since the mid-2010s, borders have increasingly become sites of contention between groups of migrants seeking entry and state agents attempting to refuse it. Media coverage and elite discourse also has focused on contentious border crossings, with implications for public attitudes toward migration. In this setting, public attitudes toward migrants should vary based on the migrants’ tactics and characteristics. We expect migrants engaging in nonviolent resistance to security forces will win more public support than those engaging in violence. Migrant characteristics – claims or motives for migration and ethnic identity – should also affect support. Survey experiments in the United States and Mexico containing fictionalized vignettes of a contentious event at the countries’ shared land border show strikingly similar results: migrant nonviolent resistance, compared to violent confrontations, reduces support for deportation and increases beliefs that migrants contribute to society. These effects are consistent across party lines and border proximity. Neither migrants’ claims nor migrants’ ethnic identity affect public support in the context of a contentious event.

Gelatin-Based Polymers Can Be Processed to Highly Resilient Biocompatible Porous Hydrogel Scaffolds for Soft Tissue Regeneration Applications

Tissue regeneration relies on the mechanical properties of the surrounding environment, and it has already been shown that mechanostimulation is highly dependent on the stiffness of the native biological tissue. The main advantage of injectable hydrogels in medical applications is their ability to be delivered through minimally invasive techniques. Natural polymer-based hydrogels have been widely used in biomedical applications, due to their high biocompatibility, low immunogenicity, and similarity to soft tissues. However, the crucial combination of low stiffness with high resilience has not been achieved for natural polymers. The current study focuses on the development of novel gelatin-based injectable hydrogels for soft tissue regeneration applications, elucidating the effects of the formulation parameters on the resilience, microstructure, biocompatibility, and mechanical properties. Non-foamed hydrogels demonstrated resilience of at least 95%, while porous hydrogels maintained resilience above 90%, allowing them to withstand mechanical stresses and dynamic conditions within the body. The adjustable modulus of these hydrogels provides the necessary flexibility to mimic the mechanical properties of soft and very soft tissues, without compromising resilience. Environmental Scanning Electron Microscopy (ESEM) observations of the porous hydrogels indicated round interconnected pore structures, desired for cell migration and nutrient flow. Biocompatibility tests on fibroblasts and pre-adipocytes confirmed high biocompatibility, both directly and indirectly. In summary, structuring these new hydrogels for achieving adjustable stiffness, along with the excellent resilience and biocompatibility, is expected to enable this new technology to fit various soft tissue regeneration applications.

Spatial analysis of major industrial risks of petroleum origin in urban areas - The case of the city of Hassi-Messaoud

Aiming at an efficient management of its oil sector and ensuring safety for its population and property, Algeria is currently engaged in all-out assessment approach. Efficient management and safety prove to be crucial parameters in oil-related activity. The major risks degree of the severity of whatever nature have impacts of various and diverse dimensions. The current study presents an occasional paradox case that which combines all high-risk elements and specific factors associated with them in an urban environment, which is made fragile and vulnerable due to its heavy exposure to a highly probable danger. The city of Hassi-Messaoud, the most important component of the Country's economy, witnesses an alarming spatial development driven by an exceptional population growth. The latter is primarily expressed through the incessant influx of immigrants attracted by promising job prospects in the oil industry sector. Coupled with the uncontrolled population movement, the urban expansion lends itself to the most dramatic aspect of Hassi-Messaoud and eventually exposes it to certain dangers all the more as Hassi-Messaoud is located in an area subject to significant potential oil-based risks.

Демографічні аспекти вимушеної міграції українців до Чеської Республіки після російського повномасштабного вторгнення

The paper examines the scale and dynamics of Ukrainian forced migration to the Czech Republic following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the demographic characteristics of Ukrainian war migrants, and the impact of this migration wave on the demographic situation in the Czech Republic. The study aimed to analyze the specific features of migration caused by the full-scale war, its reflection in demographic statistics, and to define the demographic profile of Ukrainian war migration to the Czech Republic. The research utilized statistical data provided by the Czech Statistical Office (Český statistický úřad) and applied methods of systematization and generalization, structural-logical and comparative analysis, statistical methods of structure and dynamics analysis, graphical data representation, and others. This type of study regarding Ukrainian war migrants to the Czech Republic has been conducted for the first time. Among European countries, the Czech Republic ranks third in the number of forced migrants from Ukraine, accumulating 8.4 % of the total number of Ukrainian war migrants in the European Union. It was found that the reflection of this migration wave in demographic statistics is influenced by organizational and accounting circumstances, such as the terms and procedures for extending temporary protection for war migrants, and the lack of specific “markers” in the statistics of demographic events for persons under temporary protection. Ukrainian war migration in the year of the Russian full-scale invasion led to a record increase in positive migration balance in the Czech Republic and increase in the share of individuals with Ukrainian citizenship in this country. The forced war migration wave in 2022 affected the demographic composition of both individuals with Ukrainian citizenship and the entire population of the Czech Republic through an increased share of women, who predominate among war migrants, and a slight slowdown in ageing and an increase in the share of the working-age population for two consecutive years. Among Ukrainians under temporary protection in the Czech Republic, there is a particularly high share of women aged 35 to 45 and boys aged 17—18, and also high proportion of children aged 10 to 14. During the years of the full-scale war, the number of marriages registered between Ukrainians in the Czech Republic has increased. In 2022—2023, due to the wave of war migration, the number of newborns with Ukrainian citizenship in the Czech Republic significantly increased, and their share in the total number of births among foreigners rose (by almost 30 percentage points in two years), although the total fertility rate of Ukrainian women was noticeably lower than the national average. The number of deaths among individuals with Ukrainian citizenship also increased due to the influx of war migrants, but this had a negligible impact on the level of mortality.