Middle Term Research Articles

The forecast ability of a belief-based momentum indicator in full-day, daytime, and nighttime volatilities of Chinese oil futures

China launched its domestic crude oil futures market in 2018 and this nascent market is steadily developing. Studying volatility predictability for Chinese crude oil futures has important academic and practical significance. In this study, we examine the predictive impacts of a novel predictor, the belief-based momentum indicator of conditional past return (CPR), a cluster of predictors from the domestic (Chinese) stock and oil markets and the US stock and options markets, and global finance-related indicators. In addition to the full-day oil realized volatility (ORV), we also forecast the daytime and nighttime ORVs. First, we find that the novel CPR indicator has significant incremental predictive information for the full-day, daytime, and nighttime ORVs, whether in the short, middle, or long term. Furthermore, the CPR indicator is the most reliable among the four endogenous predictors. Second, predictors of the Chinese stock market have no effective predictive information; instead, predictors from the US stock and options market have great impacts on future Chinese ORVs. Third, our evidence shows that the predictability of the night ORV is half that of the daytime ORV, and the VIX is relevant for the nighttime ORV. Our research helps Chinese policymakers improve the crude oil market mechanism and prevent market risks.

Modeling Ecological Resilience of Alpine Forest under Climate Change in Western Sichuan

The ecological resilience of forests is the ability to return to a stable state after being subjected to external disturbances, and it is among the critical indicators of forest status. Climate change has significant effects on forest ecological resilience and diversity. In this research, we selected Mao County as the study region, and employed the forest landscape model LANDIS-II to simulate the effect of different climate scenarios on the ecological resilience of alpine forests in western Sichuan during the next 300 years from the forest composition and structure perspective. The findings revealed that: (1) climate change will favor an increase in forest ecological resilience values in short simulations, but future climate scenarios will negatively impact the ecological resilience of forests as the simulation progresses through the middle and long term. (2) The rate of change of forest ecological resilience in the MTDF and SCF ecotones, which have a higher proportion of Fir (Abies fabri) and Spruce (Picea asperata), was greater than that in the rest of the ecotones in the short-term simulation. In contrast, it was the opposite in the medium-term simulation. The rate of change of forest ecological resilience was more significant in the long-term simulation in all four ecotones. (3) The high values of forest ecological resilience in the short- and medium-term simulations were primarily concentrated within the MTDF and SCF ecotones among the midwestern and northern parts of the study region. When the simulation proceeded to a later stage, the ecological resilience of the forests decreased significantly throughout the study region, with high values occurring only in some areas within the western parts of the study region. The research results can grasp the influence of future climate on the ecological resilience of high mountain forests within western Sichuan and provide an essential reference for the sustainable development of local forests.

Sentiment analysis of Indonesian tweets on COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccinations

Background: Sentiments and opinions regarding COVID-19 and the COVID-19 vaccination on Indonesian-language Twitter are scarcely reported in one comprehensive study, and thus were aimed at our study. We also analyzed fake news and facts, and Twitter engagement to understand people’s perceptions and beliefs that determine public health literacy. Methods: We collected 3,489,367 tweets data from January 2020 to August 2021. We analyzed factual and fake news using the string comparison method. The difflib library was used to measure similarity. The user's engagement was analyzed by averaging the engagement metrics of tweets, retweets, favorites, replies, and posts shared with sentiments and opinions regarding COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination. Result: Positive sentiments on COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination dominated, however, the negative sentiments increased during the beginning of the implementation of restrictions on community activities (PPKM). The tweets were dominated by the importance of health protocols (washing hands, keeping distance, and wearing masks). Several types of vaccines were on top of the word count in the vaccine subtopic. Acceptance of the vaccination increased during the studied period, and the fake news was overweighed by the facts. The tweets were dynamic and showed that the engaged topics were changed from the nature of COVID-19 to the vaccination and virus mutation which peaked in the early and middle terms of 2021. The public sentiment and engagement were shifted from hesitancy to anxiety towards the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines, whilst changed again into wariness on an uprising of the delta variant. Conclusion: Understanding public sentiment and opinion can help policymakers to plan the best strategy to cope with the pandemic. Positive sentiments and fact-based opinions on COVID-19, and COVID-19 vaccination had been shown predominantly. However, sufficient health literacy levels could yet be predicted and sought for further study.

Endovascular approach for nutcracker syndrome using an arterial stent: The first Latin-American experience

ObjectiveThe exact prevalence of nutcracker syndrome (NCS) is unknown, due to the very low incidence of this disease plus the absence of definitive diagnostic criteria. Some authors have reported a higher prevalence of this condition in women, however published and available information is limited. Due to symptoms and consequences that can cause, it is important to suspect it and diagnose it. The aim of this study was to report the outcomes of the first Latin-American experience in the treatment of NCS using an endovascular approach with a left renal vein (LRV) balloon and arterial stent angioplasty. MethodsThe study design was a retrospective cohort analysis of 11 patients who underwent endovascular approach with LRV balloon and arterial stent angioplasty for the treatment of NCS between January 2019 and April 2022 in Bogota, Colombia. ResultsDuring January 2019 to April 2022, 553 patients were treated for congestive pelvic syndrome. Only 11 patients have clinical criteria (hematuria, varicose pelvic veins, and left flank pain), imaging diagnostic criteria (abdominal veins Doppler ultrasound or abdominal computed tomography with superior mesentery artery – abdominal aorta angle <39°) and an average of LRV – inferior vena cava pressure measurement comparison difference of 6mmHg for NCS. The 100% were female patients. All the patients were under 65 years and underwent endovascular approach (EVA) with LRV balloon and arterial stent angioplasty. The 100% of patients presented resolution of the collateral vein circulation in the final control phlebo-cavography. The average age was 46.5 years old. Ten patients had an anterior type of NCS and only 1 had a posterior type of NCS. None of the patients had NCS due to secondary causes such as pancreatic head tumors. ConclusionsThis study shows that the endovascular approach with LRV balloon and arterial stent angioplasty is a safe and cost-effective treatment for NCS with low incidence of complications and no need of postoperative reintervention in short and middle term follow-up.

Evaluating the Impact of Future Seasonal Climate Extremes on Crop Evapotranspiration of Maize in Western Kansas Using a Machine Learning Approach

Data-driven technologies are employed in agriculture to optimize the use of limited resources. Crop evapotranspiration (ET) estimates the actual amount of water that crops require at different growth stages, thereby proving to be the essential information needed for precision irrigation. Crop ET is essential in areas like the US High Plains, where farmers rely on groundwater for irrigation. The sustainability of irrigated agriculture in the region is threatened by diminishing groundwater levels, and the increasing frequency of extreme events caused by climate change further exacerbates the situation. These conditions can significantly affect crop ET rates, leading to water stress, which adversely affects crop yields. In this study, we analyze historical climate data using a machine learning model to determine which of the climate extreme indices most influences crop ET. Crop ET is estimated using reference ET derived from the FAO Penman–Monteith equation, which is multiplied with the crop coefficient data estimated from the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We found that the climate extreme indices of consecutive dry days and the mean weekly maximum temperatures most influenced crop ET. It was found that temperature-derived indices influenced crop ET more than precipitation-derived indices. Under the future climate scenarios, we predict that crop ET will increase by 0.4% and 1.7% in the near term, by 3.1% and 5.9% in the middle term, and by 3.8% and 9.6% at the end of the century under low greenhouse gas emission and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. These predicted changes in seasonal crop ET can help agricultural producers to make well-informed decisions to optimize groundwater resources.

Determination of some almost split sequences in morphism categories

Almost split sequences lie in the heart of Auslander-Reiten theory. This paper deals with the structure of almost split sequences with certain ending terms in the morphism category of an Artin algebra Λ. Firstly we try to interpret the Auslander-Reiten translates of particular objects in the morphism category in terms of the Auslander-Reiten translations within the category of Λ-modules, and then use them to calculate almost split sequences. In classical representation theory of algebras, it is quite important to recognize the middle term of almost split sequences. As such, another part of the paper is devoted to discuss the middle term of certain almost split sequences in the morphism category of Λ. As an application, we restrict in the last part of the paper to self-injective algebras and present a structural theorem that illuminates a link between representation-finite morphism categories and Dynkin diagrams.

Comparative Simulation Study of Classical and Machine Learning Techniques for Forecasting Time Series Data

This manuscript presents a simulation comparison of statistical classical methods and machine learning algorithms for time series forecasting notably the ARIMA model, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), The support Vector Regression (SVR), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM). The performance of the models was evaluated using different metrics especially Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Median Absolute Error (Median AE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results of the simulations approve that KNN algorithm has better accuracy than the others models’ forecasting notably in the middle and long terms. The MAPE for the KNN model was around 4.976843 while SVR and LSTM architectures had a MAPE of 6.810311 and 13.992133 respectively. In the medium and long term, ML models are so powerful on big datasets. Paradoxically, Machine learning architectures outperform ARIMA for shorter-term predictions. Thus, ARIMA is most appropriate in the case of univariate small data sets, where deep learning algorithms are not yet at their best.

#3858 ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LONG-TERM BELIMUMAB THERAPY IN LUPUS NEPHRITIS: A SINGLE-CENTRE OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

Abstract Background and Aims Lupus nephritis (LN) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Belimumab, a monoclonal antibody that inhibits B-cell activating factor, has demonstrated efficacy in decreasing proteinuria, prevention of flares and achieving renal response after two years. However, data on its long-term efficacy is limited. The aim of this observational study is to assess the efficacy of belimumab in biopsy-proven LN patients over the medium and long term. Method In this retrospective observational study at our centre, patients with documented history of biopsy-proven LN who received belimumab were selected for analysis. Data on renal function, proteinuria (24 hours) and haematuria were collected. Immunologic activity (Anti-double-stranded-DNA, C3 and C4) was assessed. Data were retrieved at three moments: belimumab initiation, 12 months after the start of therapy and when treatment was discontinued. When treatment had not been discontinued, last available data was used. Renal flares were identified. The observational period was adjusted to be consistent between pre- and post-belimumab treatments. Clinically relevant outcomes such as possible adverse effects or major pathologic events were actively searched in patient records. Finally, the initiation of any additional antiproteinuric treatment was reported. Data analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 21®. When sample distributions were found to be normal, a parametric T-test was performed. An analysis of outcomes for patients receiving belimumab for more than 24 months was also performed. Results Seventeen patients diagnosed of LN between 1991 and 2021 began belimumab from 2014 to 2022, ten of whom received belimumab for more than 24 months. Mean treatment duration was 41,8 months. Patient characteristics are presented in Table 1, while analytic results are summarized in Table 2. A statistically significant decrease in proteinuria stands out 12 months after starting treatment with belimumab and a decrease in anti-dsDNA antibodies. As regards the subgroup of extended follow-up, results did not differ in hypothesis contrast tests. Overall, 17 renal flares were identified prior to belimumab initiation, while 9 flares were identified following its initiation (Fisher's Exact Test: P = 0,092). A patient was diagnosed with acute bacterial meningitis, although the relationship to the drug is unclear since the patient was also receiving other immunosuppressive medications. This event did not lead to drug withdrawal. Only one patient started an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), immediately after initiating belimumab. Conclusion Currently, the optimal treatment duration with belimumab in LN is not known. Despite a decline in median GFR, results from this cohort of patients suggest a tendency to controlling proteinuria, haematuria and immunologic activity, over the middle and long term. A remarkable yet not significant decline in renal flares was observed. Finally, no relevant changes in immunosuppressive or antiproteinuric medication were made, allowing to avoid biases for this reason.

ONGOING ANTI-HYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT DOESN’T IMPACT ON OUTCOME ON MEDIUM-LONG TERM SEQUELAE OF PATIENTS WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE COVID-19 PNEUMONIA

Objective: One “hot” topic that remains to be elucidated is the possible role of anti-hypertensive drugs on middle and long term outcome of COVID-19 pneumonia. Namely, ACE2 receptor is highly expressed on the surface of cardiac and pulmonary cells, and it is used by coronaviruses, to enter host cells; specifically, the interaction between the “spike” protein of coronaviruses and ACE2 has been identified as a key factor for the virus transmission. This makes the role of ACE-inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARBs) drugs extremely controversial and their role – if any – is still to be elucidated. Moreover, it is still unclear whether these drugs may have any impact on SARS-CoV-2 sequelae. Design and method: In this retrospective study, we analysed a group of 70 hypertensive unvaccinated patients treated in our Medicine ward for moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia during pandemic who survived and accepted to undergo a follow-up visit after a mean of 260 days including phone interview, standard laboratory tests, chest x-ray and/or chest computed tomography, spirometry with evaluation of DLCO. Patients were divided in three groups according to hypertensive treatment: ACE-inhibitors (n. 27) or ARBs (n. 21) or other anti-hypertensive medication. The considered groups where homogeneous (see table) Results: As shown in the table, biochemical, radiological and respiratory data were not significantly different. Again, we did not find any significant difference in terms of number of non-specific radiological alterations (i.e. ground-glass opacities, irregular linear/reticular opacities), lung fibrosis, spirometry data, DLCO diffusion, persisting effort dyspnoea. Biochemical data were, once more, substantially super-imposable in the two groups Conclusions: In conclusion, in our study, we could not detect any difference in middle-long term outcome nor in complication type or number in the groups of hypertensive patients undergoing different treatments. This result seems to support and to strengthen the idea that ACE-inhibitors and ARBs do not play a significant role on onset, evolution and middle-long term outcome of moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumoniae: although the number of follow-up patients is very small, we did not find any difference in sequelae in both groups.

Technical efficiency changes of rice farming in the favorable irrigated areas of Indonesia

Abstract The main sources of rice production growth are increases in the yield and area harvested. Yield improvement is carried out through intensification, mainly using more inputs and better irrigation, while increasing the harvested area is associated with increasing the cropping intensity. Unfortunately, even in favorable irrigated areas, outcomes of the coupled approach are not always synergistic. This study aims to assess technical efficiency (TE), its changes in direction, and the factors responsible for inefficiency during the last 10 years. The data analyzed were those of rice farming through a panel survey of farmer households in several villages with favorable irrigation. The survey was conducted in 2010, 2016, and 2021. The results showed that the use of higher seed quality and inorganic fertilizers positively affected the yield. The TE level was relatively high but tended to degrade in these 3 years. The farmers’ TE in Java Island was higher than that outside Java. The older the farmer, the more inefficient the farmer was. The number of family members working in rice farming negatively affected efficiency. TE increased as the agricultural contribution to household income increased. On the other hand, the farmers’ educational background did not significantly affect TE. Based on these findings, it is recommended to encourage farmers to adopt higher quality seeds of improved rice varieties. It is also urgent to encourage young farmers to pursue rice farming as their main profession. In the middle and long term, breeding improved rice varieties adapted to climate stress will become a pressing need.

Measuring human mobility in times of trouble: an investigation of the mobility of European populations during COVID-19 using big data.

Spatial mobility is a distinctive feature of human history and has important repercussions in many aspects of societies. Spatial mobility has always been a subject of interest in many disciplines, even if only mobility observable from traditional sources, namely migration (internal and international) and more recently commuting, is generally studied. However, it is the other forms of mobility, that is, the temporary forms of mobility, that most interest today's societies and, thanks to new data sources, can now be observed and measured. This contribution provides an empirical and data-driven reflection on human mobility during the COVID pandemic crisis. The paper has two main aims: (a) to develop a new index for measuring the attrition in mobility due to the restrictions adopted by governments in order to contain the spread of COVID-19. The robustness of the proposed index is checked by comparing it with the Oxford Stringency Index. The second goal is (b) to test if and how digital footprints (Google data in our case) can be used to measure human mobility. The study considers Italy and all the other European countries. The results show, on the one hand, that the Mobility Restriction Index (MRI) works quite well and, on the other, the sensitivity, in the short term, of human mobility to exogenous shocks and intervention policies; however, the results also show an inner tendency, in the middle term, to return to previous behaviours.

Analytical Observations (Translation of E326)

Euler, in this publication with Eneström number E326, provides an induction fallacy which arises from analyzing a particular sequence. Euler wrote this work in 1763, one of only two papers he wrote on sequences and/or series in the 1760’s, out of a total of 79 papers on series during his career. His goal in E326 is to investigate the middle terms in the expansion of powers of quadratic trinomial expressions, beginning with the specific simple quadratic , before considering the general quadratic .

Acute metabolic responses of two marine brachyuran crabs to dilute seawater: The aerobic cost of hyper regulation.

Hepatuspudibundus ("flecked box crab") is a stenohaline osmoconfomer, and restricted to marine habitats. Callinectes danae ("swimming crab Dana") lives in coastal/estuarine waters and is a weak hyper regulator. There is no consensus on which strategy is more expensive metabolically face salinity challenges: conformation with higher dependence on cell volume regulation, or hyper regulation, alleviating the need for intense cell volume regulation. Crabs were probed for their acute response to dilute seawater through exposures to salinities 35‰, 30‰, 25‰, and 20‰for 2, 4, and 6 h. Hemolymph osmolality, lactate, and ions (chloride, sodium, magnesium, potassium) were assayed, as well as muscle water content. Water dissolved oxygen, ammonia, and pH levels were also measured. H. pudibundus conformed for osmolality and displayed increase in muscle hydration along the decrease in salinity down to 25‰, while C. danae efficiently maintained hemolymph osmo ionic stability, consumed more oxygen, acidified more the water, and released more ammonia. In 25‰,both species spent energy: H. pudibundus putatively controlling cell volume, and C. danae regulating hemolymph concentrations. In 20‰, H. pudibundus closed itself, avoiding the contact of the interface epithelia with the external environment and producing much lactate, whereas C. danae spent more energy (aerobic) in extracellular osmo ionic stability. Under these conditions, anisosmotic extracellular regulation (together with additional cell volume regulation) is more oxygen consuming than osmoconformation with a putatively more intense challenge to cell volume. The exposure to hyposalinity limits the occupation of estuarine environments by H. pudibundus in short and middle term.

The Digitization of Notarial Tasks - A Comparative Overview and Outlook of ‘Cyber Notary’ In Indonesia and Germany

This article highlights the newer discussion of the term "cyber notary" in the Indonesian legal context and compares the discussion with the discussion on the use of digital instruments for German notaries. The article notes that the concept of cyber notary is being discussed in Germany and other EU-member states as well, where the integration of digital and cyber elements into the notary system is considered as a way to make processes more efficient, accessible, and secure. This includes the use of digital signatures, online notarization, the use of notarial blockchains, or secure digital storage for notarized documents. However, the implementation of cyber notary systems in Indonesia is still in a very early stage and not yet fully regulated. Consequently, it needs more discussion for the consistent integration of digital instruments for notarial work into the legal system of Indonesia. The article provides a comprehensive overview of the situation of the digitalization of notarial tasks in Indonesia. It presents some new developments in Germany that are relevant for cyber notaries and may be interesting for the development of digitalization of notarial work processes in Indonesia. Finally, the article will discuss some aspects of the ongoing digitalization that may affect the profession of notaries in the future. As in all legal professions, we are facing future disruptive developments through digitalization, namely with artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, or cloud computing. The article aims to show that AI and blockchain technology will not replace civil law notaries in the near and middle term but will be integrated into the daily work of notaries as supporting instruments.

Present Situation Analysis and Medium-Term Projections for the Role of African Gas Projects in the Process of Diversification of the Gas Supply to the European Market

The current global gas markets agenda inspires the interest to the process of diversification of the gas supply chains in order to maintain the energy security of the regions. The article includes the author’s own analysis of the perspectives for obtaining additional volumes of gas supplies from alternative sources, based on Russian and international news sources, thematic reports and publications of research institutes such as African Energy Chamber, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and statistical data. The main conclusion from the provided analysis is that, at current situation, expectations of substantial increase in gas supplies from African region in short and middle term are overstated.

Third-Order Neutral Differential Equation with a Middle Term and Several Delays: Asymptotic Behavior of Solutions

This study aims to investigate the asymptotic behavior of a class of third-order delay differential equations. Here, we consider an equation with a middle term and several delays. We obtain an iterative relationship between the positive solution of the studied equation and the corresponding function. Using this new relationship, we derive new criteria that ensure that all non-oscillatory solutions converge to zero. The new findings are an extension and expansion of relevant findings in the literature. We apply our results to a special case of the equation under study to clarify the importance of the new criteria.

Functional and molecular immune responses in Octopus vulgaris skin mucus and haemolymph under stressful conditions

The common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) is a cephalopod species with a high economic market value, hence one of the species in spotlight to be reared in aquaculture. The increasing importance of animal welfare has ethical considerations and also implications for improving quality standards. Unfortunately, defence mechanisms in cephalopods are largely unexplored and a comprehensive insight on cephalopod physiological and immune responses in relation to stress becomes particularly prominent. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to gather deeper insights on functional and molecular stress biomarkers in the common octopus. For this purpose, adult individuals were exposed to a stressful condition by limiting movements in the aquarium for 17 days. Innate immune parameters were assessed in skin mucus and plasma samples whereas the expression level of genes coding for antioxidant enzymes, related to immune functions, or involved in folding proteins was analysed in haemocytes at several sampling times. Our results indicated that most of the innate immune parameters measured (haemolytic, lysozyme, esterase, peroxidase, and protease activities) in skin mucus showed substantial variations at middle term of experiment (i.e., 11 days). After 11 days of movement limitations, the haemolytic and protease activities decreased in the octopus plasma. At the transcriptional level, lyz, hsp90 and ire1 gene expression values were particularly down-regulated while C1-like, prdx and sod transcripts showed up-regulation over an early stage (i.e., 5 days) in haemocytes from octopuses under stressful conditions. Moreover, C1-like, prdx and sod mRNA expression decreased at 11 and 17 days whereas lyz and hsp90 gene expression level augmented at 11 days in exposed octopus compared to unexposed specimens, with the subsequent increase at plasma and skin mucus level at long term. Overall, results from the present study showed potential functional and molecular biomarkers which could be of assistance in studies comprising stressful conditions in the common octopus. Moreover, biomarkers from skin mucus could also be considered as a low-invasive approach to assess and improve cephalopods welfare.

Regional Energy–Economy–Environment Coupling Coordinated Development System Driven by Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutralization over 13 Cities in Jiangsu Province

It is important to explore the energy–economy–environment (3E) coupling mechanism for building a sustainable economy in the context of carbon-peaking and carbon-neutralization strategy. Based on the DPSIRM (driving force–pressure–state–influence–response–management) theoretical model, this paper constructs the evaluation system of 3E coupling-coordinated development, takes the carbon-neutral and sustainable-development strategy and spatiotemporal heterogeneity into account in the index system, and constitutes the energy–economy–environment and carbon-neutral strategy–sustainable development–space (3E3S) strategic-development model. This paper uses the coupling-coordination-degree model to measure the coordinated development of 3E in Jiangsu from 2010 to 2020 and analyzes the time-sequence evolution and spatial-difference evolution characteristics of the coupling-coordinated development. The results show that (1) when the coupling coefficient of 3E was in a stable and high-level coupling state and the correlation degree of each system was high, the coupling-coordination degree increased from 0.4 in 2010 to 0.7 in 2020; the level of coordination of 3E coupling transited from the initial maladjustment recession to the intermediate coordinated development and moved towards high-quality coordinated development. (2) In addition, at the beginning, the development level of southern and central Jiangsu was generally higher than that of northern Jiangsu; in the middle term, the overall development was in a stage of barely coordinated development. The urban difference between northern and central Jiangsu was relatively high, and the level in southern Jiangsu was generally high; in the later stage, the overall development was in a well-coordinated stage. The development of southern Jiangsu was relatively saturated, gradually approaching the stage of high-quality coordinated development. Roughly speaking, in 2010, the average level of coupling coordination degree of South Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu, and North Jiangsu was 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3, respectively; by 2020, it had developed to 0.9, 0.8, and 0.7, respectively, and the development level rose steadily despite regional differences. The level of coupling coordination generally increased from north to south. Therefore, strengthening the strategic-development awareness of 3E and establishing and improving the government consultation mechanism according to local conditions will help decision-makers to formulate effective regional sustainable-development and carbon-neutral strategies and form a coordinated-development strategy of 3E3S in Jiangsu.

Inactivation efficacy and reactivation of fecal bacteria with a flow-through LED ultraviolet reactor: Intraspecific response prevails over interspecific differences

Treatment with ultraviolet (UV) light is a common option for inactivating waterborne organisms. The mercury vapor lamps conventionally used as a source of UV-C light for water disinfection are eventually replaced by light emitter diodes (LEDs) in the middle term due to their higher efficiency and lack of hazardous materials. Nonetheless, biological mechanisms for repairing UV damage caused by the UV treatment are some of its significant undesirable features. The objective of this study is to evaluate and compare the UV-resistance and the reactivation degree in different strains of E. coli and E. faecalis treated with a flow-through reactor equipped with LEDs with an emission range between 265 and 285 nm. The treated organisms were subjected to various illumination regimes after the UV irradiation. The results obtained indicated that intraspecific differences between the strains of E. coli were greater than the interspecific differences with respect to E. faecalis in terms of UV-resistance and repairing potential. The UV doses necessary to achieve four log-reductions ranged from 10.2 to 16.3 mJ cm−2 for E. coli and from 11.1 to 11.4 for mJ cm−2 for E. faecalis. Dark repair was not observed within 24 h after the UV irradiation whereas the degree of photorepair depended on both the bacteria strain and the applied UV dose. The exposure of the irradiated organisms to an illuminated environment entailed and increasing between the 18 % and the 160 % of the UV dose required to achieve four log-reductions.

Climate Shocks and Local Urban Conflicts: An Evolutionary Perspective on Risk Governance in Bhubaneswar

In this paper, we explore the complex entanglements between ongoing land conflicts and climate shocks, and their implications for risk governance paths and evolution. We focus on ways in which concepts of shock and conflict can be incorporated into social–ecological systems thinking and applied to risk governance practice in a southern cities context. Through a qualitative inquiry of two slum redevelopment projects in Bhubaneswar city in India, we trace the origin and evolution of conflict around land tenure and eviction in informal settlements, as well as its interaction with local manifestations of climate shocks. Climate policies, as responses to climate shock and intended to mitigate climate risk, are observed as constructed, interpreted, framed, and used strategically by formal actors to further urban development objectives, while the local knowledge systems, risk perceptions, and adaptations are ignored in practice. This study helps to re-think the complexities of climate risk governance in southern urban spaces where multiple risks overlap and interact within the diverse realities of informality and vulnerability. A singular focus on one type of risk, on the formal order to manage that risk, is likely to overlook other risks and opportunities. Hence, shocks are likely to produce more unanticipated effects, conflicts function as the unobserved middle term, and the formal policies and plans to mitigate climate risk contribute to the creation of new risk.