Middle Power States Research Articles

Strategic Ambiguity in the Time of a Second Cold War

Abstract In the competition for hegemony of major powers, it seems logical for a small or middle power state to be ambiguous on its preference. Aligning with one protagonist for protection and preferential treatment can only be at the expense of antagonizing the other. Conventional wisdom holds that hedging is practical as it allows a country to leverage on its amicable relations with both powers. The ASEAN states are caught in the middle of the U.S.–China economic rivalry as well as directly engaged in maritime disputes with China. This paper evaluates strategic ambiguity versus alignment against the backdrop of trade decoupling of rival superpowers. Using a multi-sector, multi-country Ricardian trade model, our simulation results reveal that it is in the interest of some economies to align with one of two camps, contrary to conventional wisdom. The diverse welfare effects of decoupling on member states prevent the attainment of a unified ASEAN position and undermine ASEAN centrality in curbing the risk of a second cold war.

Multilateralism from the middle: stratification and NGOs

The universe of civil society organizations is vast and stratified. This article focuses on a particular type of organization: those that utilize high levels of multilateral expertise and expend significant resources on advocacy work within international organizations. Borrowing from middle power state theory, I suggest that considering material and social stratification helps us to understand the conditions that lead to a particular NGO role in global diplomacy. Drawing on meeting records, committee and working group membership, and interviews with organization representatives, this paper offers a plausibility probe investigation of a set of NGOs that are exceptionally engaged in civil society affairs in the New York hub of the United Nations.

Is anyone a middle power? The case for historicization

AbstractWhat should happen to a concept as it loses real-world application? The concept of ‘middle power’ rose to prominence in the mid-20thcentury, establishing an influential practitioner–scholarly nexus over the next several decades. This prestigious history came at a cost, embedding three core assumptions into the concept: that middle powers areInternationalin focus,Multilateralin method, andGood Citizensin conduct. While there have been significant attempts by scholars to reform the concept, middle power theory has proven inseparable from these assumptions. In this paper, we examine six middle power states (Canada, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico) and show middle power theory no longer helps us distinguish or interpret these states. Changes in the international environment suggest this finding will endure. As such, we argue for the historicization of the concept of ‘middle power’. We conclude by identifying a series of analytical puzzles which researchers will need to address to develop an appropriate conceptual lexicon for theorizing this type of state in the 21stcentury.

How Australia’s Middle Power Identity Has Informed Its Behaviour at the BBNJ Negotiations

Abstract The negotiations for a new international legally binding instrument to conserve and sustainably utilise marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) have been the subject of much analysis and commentary since their commencement. Yet there is still relatively little consideration of what can be learnt about state behaviour from the BBNJ negotiations. This article engages in an analysis of Australia’s behaviour as a case study of the often-overlooked category of middle power states. Hence, this article is envisioned as an exploratory study into middle powers in international environmental negotiations, with the goal of prompting further exploration of both the BBNJ negotiations specifically, as well as the role of different kinds of states in the creation of international environmental law. The overarching question being asked here is “How has Australia’s middle power identity informed its behaviour at the BBNJ negotiations?”

Uncover the Indonesia Middlepowermanship: When Indonesia find the Middle Power Moment?

Indonesia is middle power state. But no state can be a middle power all the time. There is middle power moment which allows ones to pursue its middle powerdom. This article aim to explain Indonesia middlepowermanship and its middle power moment. This article applies a data-driven, qualitative approach using secondary data. This article argues that Indonesia middlepowermanship is Indonesia’s persistent effort to build a rules-based regional order in Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific using ASEAN and Bali Democracy Forum. While Indonesia middle power moment started as early of 2003, when Indonesia take the role as ASEAN chairmanship that lead into Bali Concord II and ASEAN Charted 2008.

The Rising Security Challenge of East Asia's "Dual Graying": Implications for U.S.-Led Security Architecture in the Indo-Pacific

executive summary: This article explains the impact of "dual graying"—the concurrent phenomena of rapid population aging and the proliferation of gray-zone conflicts—on the security planning and postures of Northeast Asian states and considers the implications of these trends in the broader context of Indo-Pacific demographics. main argumentThe major Northeast Asian powers (China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) as well as Russia are at the leading edge of one of the most consequential challenges of the 21st century: the rapid aging of their populations at a rate unprecedented in human history that is resulting in a shrinkage of their total population sizes. In addition to the graying of their populations, these powers face a range of new "gray" conflicts—interactions residing somewhere between war and peace—that exacerbate long-standing military concerns. Contrary to predictions that rapid aging will diminish the likelihood of interstate war, security tensions are rising among graying rivals in this region of the world, and states are increasing both military spending and military development. This "dual graying" underscores the need for new approaches to the U.S. network of regional security partners. policy implications• The rapid aging among regional powers does not so far suggest that an "aging peace" is likely to develop; rather, tensions are increasing over old and new areas of conflict. • The escalation of regional gray-zone conflicts is taxing U.S. allies and partners with graying and shrinking populations. Demographic changes in several of these major partners may necessitate a re-examination of roles and commitments within the U.S. alliance network. • Innovations in military and civilian technologies may eventually offset many of the challenges resulting from shrinking and rapidly aging populations, but in the meantime growing labor shortages will force many militaries to seek to adapt in other ways to maintain robust force postures. • In the wider Indo-Pacific, differential aging and population growth among major security actors suggests a growing role for several middle-power states (such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) that may benefit from a "demographic dividend" over the next several decades.

South Africa, Sweden, and Good International Citizenship

There are those who argue that a state embodying good international citizenship (GIC) must actively seek to improve the worldaround it, thereby making a positive contribution to overcoming global challenges. A good international citizen (state) must also be a proponent of multilateral cooperation, usually manifesting in global platforms such as the United Nations (UN). Scholars refer to middle power states being ideally situated in the power rankings of international affairs, respected by major and minor powers, tobecome custodians of emerging international norms and to pave a pathway forward for the community of states. Both South Africa and Sweden are seen as pivot countries in their respective regions and have a long history of shared desires and supports for freedom. This article will explore the notion of GIC and its desirability, and applicability, in relation to South Africa and Sweden. It employs a casestudy methodology approach in its research design and interrogates the extent to which South Africa and Sweden qualify as good international citizens according to four characteristics, drawn from the literature. The article finds that both Sweden and South Africa demonstrate elements of good international citizenship.

Middle power behavior during the transition in world order: the case of Kazakhstan

While the global prominence of China has become indisputable, and Russia challenges the liberal world order because of geopolitical and historical necessities, the Western world is striving in every way to strengthen the liberal system through the economic, military and democratic institutions. This gives reason to believe that the world order is currently experiencing a deep crisis and transformation in a post-pandemic period. What scientists agree on is that the main issue of the modern international relations is the suspense of the future scenario and the positions of the actors within it. However, it is beyond argument that the rise of multilateralism in world politics comes with the activation of middle power’s diplomacy that is becoming more prominent. The diversity of middle power countries is explained by the fact that the current multipolar system has discouraged unilateralism, conferring the possibility for middle powers to have a voice and push for a negotiated resolution. Currently, in the world scientific environment, middle power states are considered in two categories: traditional middle powers, such as South Korea and Japan, and rising middle power states. In this paper, we examine the middle power behavior during the world order transition by comparatively analyzing Kazakhstan's behavior with the rising and traditional mid-power states on the basis of empirical data. Kazakhstan might help to decrease the tension between the liberal world and the illiberal world by contributing to the mediation efforts. Key words: new world order, liberal order, multipolar system, middle power

Australia’s Middle Power Approach Towards Climate Change in Pacific Island

This article tends to examine the ways Australia approaching climate change in the region associated with its middle power status. Pacific Islands or Southwest Pacific Region is a regional territory that almost of all its surface covered by water. The region is prominent for having numbers of island countries or island states which are very dependent on natural conditions. They are vulnerable to the change of nature thus it hits their top national security. The issue of climate change in recent years has gotten more serious attention from all over the world and so does the pacific island region with no exception. Australia with its unique feature of being known as a middle power state and as the most secure nation in the region has served a distinctive approach on addressing the issue of climate change. The behavior and identity approach are adequately in line to establish certain strategies associated with middle power status in the role of guiding Australia’s foreign policy.

Australia's Middle Power Approach Towards Climate Change in Pacific Island

This article tends to examine the ways Australia approaching climate change in the region associated with its middle power status. Pacific Islands or Southwest Pacific Region is a regional territory that almost of all its surface covered by water. The region is prominent for having numbers of island countries or island states which are very dependent on natural conditions. They are vulnerable to the change of nature thus it hits their top national security. The issue of climate change in recent years has gotten more serious attention from all over the world and so does the pacific island region with no exception. Australia with its unique feature of being known as a middle power state and as the most secure nation in the region has served a distinctive approach on addressing the issue of climate change. The behavior and identity approach are adequately in line to establish certain strategies associated with middle power status in the role of guiding Australia’s foreign policy. Keywords: climate change, Island states, middle power, Australia, foreign policy.

South Korea’s Arctic policy: political motivations for 21st century global engagements

ABSTRACT As one of the Arctic Council’s permanent observer states, South Korea has implemented various policies related to the Arctic despite its significant geographical and cultural distance from the Arctic countries. While most literature analysing the country’s active involvement in the region has focused on economic interests, little attention has been dedicated to the political aspect of South Korea’s Arctic policy. In this article, we argue that South Korea’s international influence as a middle power state needs to be recognised, and that the Arctic has served as an arena for the ROK to assert its influence on international issues. With this political intent, South Korea’s policies of globalisation and soft power also served as tools in its middle power diplomacy in the Arctic. We examine this political aim of South Korea’s Arctic interests by chronicling the country’s Arctic policy and middle power diplomacy.

Intellectual and Entrepreneurial Leadership: Reflection on Thailand’s Emerging Middle Power Diplomacy in the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)

Thailand’s diplomacy was considerably more active during Thaksin’s premiership than the governments after him. Thailand’s intellectual and entrepreneurial leadership in the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) is characterised as a catalyst, facilitator and manager state as described in the behavioural middle power approach. Utilising the behavioural model of the middle power approaches, this study argues that Thailand is a potential emerging middle power state in Asia for its role in intellectual and entrepreneurial leadership in the ACD. Even though the ACD after 2006 was somewhat negligent due to Thailand’s internal political strife. The ACD remains a significant foreign policy reflecting Thailand’s middle-power status.

The structure of foreign policy attitudes among middle power publics: a transpacific replication

ABSTRACT Empirical models illustrating how mass publics organise their views on foreign policy issues abound. Models that posit militant internationalism and cooperative internationalism as the two factors structuring mass foreign policy attitudes and that typically rely on American survey data have given way to models positing a larger number of underlying factors supported by cross-national survey data. Still, there are few studies assessing the cross-national validity of multi-factor models. Further, middle power states that must navigate between international leadership and followership remain understudied. This article draws on new survey data from Canada and Australia—two archetypal middle power states—to replicate a recent and influential model of foreign policy attitudes comprised of four factors: cooperative internationalism, militant internationalism, isolationism, and support for global justice. Using an exploratory structural equation modelling (ESEM) framework, it finds that the four-factor structure of foreign policy attitudes observed in the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany obtains among the Canadian and Australian publics, yet there are country-specific nuances that suggest differences in the ways Canadians and Australians perceive foreign policy options.

Framing middle power foreign policy: trade, security, and human rights frames in Canadian and Australian foreign policy attitudes

Abstract Middle power states in the Indo-Pacific region face a challenging foreign policy environment in light of geopolitical and economic rivalry between the United States and China. In this context, what factors shape the foreign policy attitudes of middle power publics? This article presents results from a set of survey-based experiments conducted in Canada and Australia, two archetypal middle power states located on the Pacific Rim. Demographically representative samples of both publics were presented with randomized vignettes highlighting facets of bilateral relations with the United States, regional partners (Mexico in the Canadian case, and Indonesia in the Australian case), and China. Results indicate that making different aspects of a particular relationship salient as part of the vignette shapes perceptions of and preferences toward relations with the state in question. Foreign policy attitudes are thus amenable to framing effects. Still, results point to different frames having greater relevance to different bilateral relationships.

Beyond Resource Diplomacy and Economic Statecraft: UAE-ROK Relations in the 21st Century

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Republic of Korea (ROK)’s diplomatic relations date back to 18 June 1980. While the ROK-UAE relations were initially centered on the energy and construction sectors in the 1970s and 1980s, the ROK’s engagement with the UAE has been broadened in scope since the mid-2000s to encompass security and defense, food security, innovation and cultural exchanges. By analyzing the diplomatic history of the ROK-UAE bilateral relations, this essay examines the historical evolution of the ROK’s emergence as a middle-power state in the Middle East and discusses the ramifications for the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy.

Preferential trade agreements and power asymmetries: the case of technological protection measures in Australia

Since the 1980s states have sought to harmonise economic standards to aid the flow of goods, services and finance across borders. The founding agreements of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), for example, harmonised standards on services, intellectual property and investment. However, mutlilateral trade negotiations in the WTO have since stalled. In response, the United States (US) has engaged in forum shopping, using preferential trade agreements at the bilateral, regional and multinational level to harmonise international standards. This article argues that through forum shopping the US has been able to export standards that support the commercial interests of US-based industries more than they encourage economic exchange across borders. Furthermore, because power asymmetries are starker in preferential trade negotiations smaller and middle power states should not enter trade agreements, which include regulatory harmonisation. This is illustrated with the case of the US-Australia free trade agreement, looking specifically at a copyright standard known as technological protection measures (TPMs). It was clear before, during and after the agreement was signed that Australia’s existing standard on TPMs was more popular than the US-style standard. Nevertheless, a US-style standard is in effect domestically because of the trade agreement.

Trumping foreign policy: public diplomacy, framing, and public opinion among middle power publics

ABSTRACTEven as the world’s sole superpower, the United States requires the cooperation of other states to achieve many of its foreign policy objectives. The President of the United States thus often serves as ‘Diplomat in Chief’ in public diplomacy efforts to appeal directly to publics abroad. Given Donald Trump’s antagonistic approach to foreign relations and widespread lack of popularity, what are the implications for support for US policy among publics abroad – particularly among middle power states allied to the US? While previous research on public opinion relying on observational data has found that confidence in the US President is linked to support for American foreign policy goals, the mechanisms at work remain unclear. Using original data from survey-based experiments conducted in Canada and Australia, this article seeks to clarify the effect of ‘presidential framing’ (presenting a policy goal as endorsed or not endorsed by Trump) on attitudes toward key policy issues in the Canada–US and Australia–US relationships. Results point to a negative ‘Trump framing’ effect in Canadians’ and Australians’ trade policy attitudes, but such an effect is not observed in other policy domains (energy policy in Canada, and refugee policy in Australia).

Middle Powers' Crucial Peace Dividend: Networking Development

This research provides insights into regional middle powers’ postures and constraints, showing evidence of a gradually structured peace dividend resulting from networking economic development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Using three case studies, Turkey/Israel, Iran/Pakistan, and Turkey/Iran, this research demonstrates that external regional constraints and internal capacity needs have facilitated strategic economic relations, including joint electricity, gas, and water projects, joint infrastructure and technology initiatives, and joint R&D and military industries. In turn, this strategic networking of economic development projects has restricted these states’ reactions to tension and conflict, prompting them to negotiate and engage in diplomacy to resolve bilateral disagreements so as to not compromise their mutual economic interests. This research contends that the security dilemma faced by middle power states in MENA is a motivator for economic integration even when there is no clearly expressed desire for peace. Economic integration increases their bargaining leverage with the West, while simultaneously resulting in bilateral conflict reduction behaviour patterns. This research further discusses the implications of categorising regional middle power states as regional stability facilitators, since economic integration can satisfy their security concerns, maintain their middle power statuses, and restrain the possibility of war.

A Dolphin in an Oil Sea : Application of the Korean Version of Middle Power State Concept to the Case of Kazakhstan

This article analyses the foreign policy of Kazakhstan through the prism of the modern version of the middle power concept that was elaborated upon by Korean scholars. Results of the research demonstrate that it is relevant to identify Kazakhstan as a middle power state in the fourth wave, of which the Republic of Korea is already part. This research allowed the detection of a couple of key factors (the essentially important role of President Nazarbayev in current foreign affairs and the energy-oriented and energy-dependent economy) that may negatively influence Kazakhstan’ s status as a middle power in future in case of an unsuccessful power transition.

A Critical Analysis of Multilateral Aid of Middle Power States

A Critical Analysis of Multilateral Aid of Middle Power States