Middle East And North African Region Research Articles

The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01-2016:12).

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01-2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities.

The Interactional Relationships Between Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk and Bank Profitability in MENA Region

The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between credit risk, liquidity risks and bank profitability within the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. We selected data related to a sample of conventional banks observed during the period 2004–2015 and we performed the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method in the empirical section. The overall results suggest that profitability of MENA banks is negatively and significantly sensitive to an increase in credit and/or liquidity risks. This negative effect was confirmed for either the separate or the interaction effects of these two risks. Furthermore, the findings indicate that bank profitability decreases significantly the level of credit and liquidity risks. We also found that the law and order as institutional quality increases the profitability of MENA banks and decreases both credit and liquidity risks.

Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the MENA Region

Credit risk has severe impacts on banks’ performance, leading to financial and economic distress. To highlight this interesting issue, this study explores bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of banks’ credit risk, denoted by the level of nonperforming loans (NPLs). The study includes 98 banks from 10 Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging countries spanning the period between 2003 and 2016. The analysis employs panel data estimation technique. Our results reveal that bank size, capital adequacy ratio, bank operating efficiency, profitability, GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and public debt represent the main determinants of NPLs in MENA emerging markets. The results of this research have practical implications for bank managers, regulators, investors, and financial analysts. This study provides significant insights on the determinants of NPLs, which will allow bank managers to design credit policies that minimize borrowers’ defaults. The findings of the study are useful to policy makers to establish new and reinforce existing regulations to maintain the steadiness of the banking sector in MENA emerging countries.

Stroke in the Middle-East and North Africa: A 2-year prospective observational study of intravenous thrombolysis treatment in the region. Results from the SITS-MENA Registry.

Intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke in the Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries is still confined to the main urban and university hospitals. This was a prospective observational study to examine outcomes of intravenous thrombolysis-treated stroke patients in the MENA region compared to the non-MENA stroke cohort in the SITS International Registry. Of 32,160 patients with ischemic stroke registered using the SITS intravenous thrombolysis protocol between June 2014 and May 2016, 500 (1.6%) were recruited in MENA. Compared to non-MENA (all p < 0.001), median age in MENA was 55 versus 73 years, NIH Stroke Scale score 12 versus 9, onset-to-treatment time 138 versus 155 min and door-to-needle time 54 min versus 64 min. Hypertension was the most reported risk factor, but lower in MENA (51.7 vs. 69.7%). Diabetes was more frequent in MENA (28.5 vs. 20.8%) as well as smoking (20.8 vs. 15.9%). Hyperlipidemia was less observed in MENA (17.6 vs. 29.3%). Functional independence (mRS 0-2) at seven days or discharge was similar (53% vs. 52% in non-MENA), with mortality slightly lower in MENA (2.3% vs. 4.8%). SICH rates by SITS-MOST definition were low (<1.4%) in both groups. Intravenous thrombolysis patients in MENA were younger, had more severe strokes and more often diabetes. Although stroke severity was higher in MENA, short-term functional independency and mortality were not worse compared to non-MENA, which could partly be explained by younger age and shorter OTT in MENA. Decreasing the burden of stroke in this young population should be prioritized.

Testing the Association between State Capacity and Primary Schooling in the Middle East and North African (MENA) Region, 1971–2014

Abstract Although the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has exhibited substantial progress over the past 40 years in improving primary schooling, marked variations in these achievements are evident within the region. This is an interesting puzzle if we recognize the MENA region is highly homogeneous in terms of religion, politics and socio-economic structure. We argue that in this paper, differences in state capacity–the degree to which MENA states attains desired primary education goals–contribute to these variations. To substantiate our argument, we applied different state capacity indicators and tested their impacts on primary schooling for the period 1971–2014. Empirical findings largely support our observations and results still hold with alternative indicators and model specifications. These findings have policy and academic implications for the study of state capacity, primary education and the MENA region.

Selenium and Health: An Update on the Situation in the Middle East and North Africa.

Selenium (Se) is an important trace element that should be present in the diet of all age groups to provide an adequate intake. Se is incorporated in 25 known selenoproteins, which mediate the biological effects of Se including, immune response regulation, maintenance of thyroid function, antioxidant defense, and anti-inflammatory actions. A balanced intake of Se is critical to achieve health benefits because depending on its status, Se has been found to play physiological roles or contribute to the pathophysiology of various diseases including, neurodegenerative diseases, diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular disorders. Se status and intake are very important to be known for a specific population as the levels of Se are highly variable among different populations and regions. In the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, very little is known about the status of Se. Studies available show that Se status is widely variable with some countries being deficient, some over sufficient, and some sufficient. This variability was apparent even within the same country between regions. In this review, we summarized the key roles of Se in health and disease and discussed the available data on Se status and intake among countries of the MENA region.

Stroke in the Middle-East and North Africa: A 2-year prospective observational study of stroke characteristics in the region-Results from the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS)-Middle-East and North African (MENA).

Stroke incidence and mortality are reported to have increased in the Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries during the last decade. This was a prospective observational study to examine the baseline characteristics of stroke patients in the MENA region and to compare the MENA vs. the non-MENA stroke cohort in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS) International Registry. Of the 13,822 patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke enrolled in the SITS-All Patients Protocol between June 2014 and May 2016, 5897 patients (43%) were recruited in MENA. The median onset-to-door time was 5 h (IQR: 2:20-13:00), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was 8 (4-13) and age was 65 years (56-76). Hypertension (66%) and diabetes (38%) were the prevailing risk factors; large artery stenosis > 50% (25.3%) and lacunar strokes (24.1%) were the most common ischemic stroke etiologies. In comparison, non-MENA countries displayed an onset-to-door time of 5:50 h (2:00-18:45), a median of NIHSS 6 (3-14), and a median age of 66 (56-76), with other large vessel disease and cardiac embolism as the main ischemic stroke etiologies. Hemorrhagic strokes (10%) were less common compared to non-MENA countries (13.9%). In MENA, only a low proportion of patients (21%) was admitted to stroke units. MENA patients are slightly younger, have a higher prevalence of diabetes and slightly more severe ischemic strokes, commonly of atherosclerotic or microvascular etiology. Admission into stroke units and long-term follow-up need to be improved. It is suspected that cardiac embolism and atrial fibrillation are currently underdiagnosed in MENA countries.

De-risking policies as a substantial determinant of climate change mitigation costs in developing countries: Case study of the Middle East and North African region

Ambitious goals for climate change mitigation and energy security policies are driving deployment of renewable energy sources globally. However, the deployment of renewable energies at scale requires not only public but also private capital, such as foreign direct investment (FDI). Many countries with favourable conditions for renewables, such as the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, are not attracting sufficient FDI. Risk perceptions of FDI stakeholders are one of the reasons. This paper discusses the de-risking approach as a possible tool to address subjective risk perceptions and assesses with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model macroeconomic feedback-effects of employing a de-risking strategy for FDI into a particular kind of renewable electricity (RES-E) technology, concentrated solar power, in the MENA region. Our results show that the application of a de-risking approach reduces the costs for deployment of CSP, and therefore, also volumes of subsidies that would be needed to make CSP cost competitive with fossil fuel based electricity generation. This, in turn, leads to positive GDP and welfare effects in the MENA region. Our results allow us developing of recommendations for energy policy the implementation of the de-risking approach as a potential consensual option with high political feasibility to reduce climate change mitigation costs.

Are Monarchies Exceptional to the Arab Uprisings? The Resilience of Moroccan Monarchy Revisited

AbstractWith the onset of the Arab uprisings at the end of 2010 and the emergence of popular demonstrations that raised the issue of crises of legitimacy across the Arab states, the literature on democratization in the Middle East and North African (MENA) studies has taken on new dimensions recently. One of the primary theoretical debates that has surfaced in the post‐2011 era has revolved around on whether or not the demonstrations will lead to regime change or increased authoritarianism in the MENA region. One of the crucial developments of the Arab Spring has, then, been the overthrow of some long‐standing rulers like Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt, as well as the questioning of authoritarian regimes by the masses. The public protests submerged some Arab republics, but monarchies found ways to overcome the public outcry through containing the opposition. This paper, therefore, takes the monarchy of Morocco as a case study with the aim of analyzing the methods and regime‐survival strategies the regime has employed to sustain itself and consolidate power in the post‐2011 Arab uprisings era. Additionally, the role of the Justice and Development Party as an emerging threat in the postdemocratization era, and the changing nature of the party’s relations with the palace, will be addressed.

Promotion of renewable energy in some MENA region countries

In recent years Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, are showing efforts about the integration of renewable electricity into their power markets. Indeed, installations were already achieved and renewable energy programs were launched. The Algerian program remains one of the most ambitious with its installation capacity up to 22GW of power generating to be installed by 2030. More than 60 % of the total capacity is planned to be solar photovoltaic (PV). Like Algeria, Morocco has integrated development project with a target to develop by 2020 a 2000 MW capacity of electricity production from solar energy. The Tunisian government has launched its first phase of the renewable power generation program, with an objective to install 1,000 MW of renewable power capacity over the 2017-2020 periods, where 650 MW of the total capacity is planned to be solar and 350 MW wind. One of the leading Arab country in wind energy, these recent years is Egypt, with its more than 700 megawatt of operational power generation plants and has launched significant projects development in solar energy. Regarding Jordan, the government has taken different steps in this field of energy with a Strategy plan 2007-2020, by implementing a large scale of projects on renewable energy sources, with an objective to cover 10% of the country’s energy supply, from renewable sources by the year 2020. Concerning Lebanon, the country is looking to attain an integration of 12 % by 2020.

Does Investors’ Fear Gauge in a Mature Market Matter? Evidence from the MENA Region

This article examines the notion that less developed markets may be deemed safe havens for international investors. It tests the effect of mature markets’ fear on risk and return in less developed markets. The study employs multivariate VAR-GARCH methodology to test for volatility spillover between the U.S. market risk perception index (VIX) and 12 Middle East and North African (MENA) stock markets. It examines volatility spillover before, during, and after the global financial crisis to assess fear spillover during stable and turbulent periods. Results reveal that MENA stock markets’ own volatility spillover is predominant. The authors find weak volatility transmission between mature and emerging markets around the global financial crisis; however, no evidence of volatility spillover during the same period exists. This study encourages international investors to evaluate new diversification opportunities in MENA markets that may not be available in major markets.

Does state fragility matter for foreign direct investment? Evidence from Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries

PurposeFollowing the Arab Spring turmoil, Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ overall instability has significantly increased which resulted in the decrease of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the research on determinants of FDI inflows to the MENA region by examining the relationship between state fragility and FDI.Design/methodology/approachA panel data analysis was conducted to study the impact of Fragile States Index (FSI) and its components, namely economic, social and political/military state fragility, on FDI inflows to seven MENA countries situated in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region over the period 2006-2016.FindingsThe results show that the increase of political state fragility deters FDI inflows to SEMED countries. By contrast, their economic and social state fragilities are insignificant for FDI. This could be explained by the fact that investors are usually attracted by government stability and a strong investment profile.Research limitations/implicationsGiven the fact that previous research has not yet validated FSI as a new FDI determinant, the results should be interpreted with some caution. It may also be worth examining the impact of FSI on FDI by industry sector in future studies.Practical implicationsThe results reveal that FSI could help MNEs investing in the MENA region assess and better manage the economic, social and political/military risks they face.Originality/valueThis study introduces a new FDI determinant and stresses the importance of state fragility in attracting FDI.

Impact of Narrative Exposure Therapy on torture survivors in the MENA region

Introduction: Narrative Exposure Therapy (NET) is a brief cognitive-behavioural intervention for individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which has mostly been used to treat traumatised asylum seekers and refugees in high-income settings. Evidence is scarce on the effectiveness of NET with torture survivors, especially in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region where health systems are unable to meet the increasing needs of mental health disorders caused by war and displacement. Click on pdf for full abstract.

Does corruption limit FDI and economic growth? Evidence from MENA countries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of corruption on investment and growth in 15 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries during the period 1985-2013. The authors used the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) corruption index and conducted a panel cointegration analysis and Granger causality procedure to detect the dynamic relationships between the variables. Results indicate that corruption is a serious hurdle to economic growth in MENA countries since it affects investment activities and foreign direct investment inflows. In this case, policymakers have to implement effective anti-corruption strategies to avoid the epidemic of corruption.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used the ICRG corruption index and conducted a panel cointegration analysis and Granger causality procedure to detect the dynamic relationships between the variables.FindingsThe main findings of this paper show that corruption is a serious hurdle to economic growth in MENA countries since it affects investment activities and foreign direct investment inflows. In this case, policymakers have to implement effective anti-corruption strategies to avoid the epidemic of corruption.Research limitations/implicationsUnfortunately, in this study the authors did not use institutional variables to see their role and to judge whether governments should enhance the quality of institution and improve the corporate governance. This would be an opportunity to expand the sample and to conduct a new research in the near future to assess the real costs of corruption in the MENA region.Practical implicationsGovernments and policymakers need to apprehend and admit that corruption is an important issue that deters foreign direct investment and threats the economic development and growth. Corruption can also deteriorate the infrastructure and increase the cost of doing business for both government and private sector which in turn will lower the growth (Tanzi and Doovi, 1997). It is worth recalling that during the past five years, a large part of the MENA region has witnessed multiple social upheavals. Hence, corruption must be tackled effectively and coherently to avoid further social tensions. It is the proper time to take serious steps and strict policy actions within a zero-tolerance framework to fight corruption and its widespread. New rules, laws, and anti-corruption procedures are among the most important initiatives that governments should implement. The governments should also increase the public awareness of the multiple drawbacks of corruption by publishing official reports and data on the most corrupted sector in the country. In this case, media will have a key role to diffuse the necessary information.Originality/valueWhile most of the previous studies have employed GMM and OLS techniques, the authors opt a panel vector error correction model and cointegration technique to detect causality between the variables used in the model for the present study.

China’s Energy Strategy in the MENA Region

China is in dire need of energy resources to sustain its economic growth. In recent years, China has been turning more to Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East, as well as Sudan in North Africa, as trading partners to secure its energy supply. This article explores China’s energy strategy in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region through case studies of China’s energy diplomacy with Saudi Arabia and Iran. It argues that China’s energy strategy is very much driven by the “Beijing Consensus” that features respect for others’ sovereignty, emphasis on sustainability, equality, and quality-of-life, as well as incremental change to past institutions and practices. China has applied an equity ownership strategy to gain more control over oil flows as a shield against price fluctuations and to reduce the possibility of supply interruption; however, civil unrest and conflicts in the MENA region threaten to disrupt China’s energy supply channels, which implies that China should work harder for regional peace in order to achieve sustainable energy supply.

Is Middle East and North Africa different? A comparative analysis of growth and structural change in and outside MENA

By using general method of moments-system estimation on a panel of developing countries over the period 1984–2011, we contrast the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ growth pattern with that of middle-income countries from other regions. Three complementary dimensions of growth driver are assessed: accumulation, structural change and institutions. Our comparative analysis shows that MENA economies sharply contrast with other middle-income emerging economies with respect to two main dimensions: (1) the sectoral structure of production and (2) the institutional environment. We show that, during the last three decades, the MENA region has exhibited a specific pattern of growth featuring a low pace of structural change and high corruption levels, which may have hindered highly productive job creation, and eventually bred massive discontent in the region. The assumption of the complementary effect of the accumulation, institutional and structural growth determinants is also supported by our empirical estimations.

Bank concentration, institutional quality, and economic growth

Purpose This study aims to examine the influence of institutional quality on the relationship between economic growth and banking sector concentration. Design/methodology/approach The sample of our study covers 15 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1996-2010. The results are estimated based on static and dynamic panel data analysis. Findings The results reveal a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and each banking concentration and institutional quality. The results support the argument that banking concentration and institutional quality are matters for growth in MENA countries. The results also indicate that the interaction variable between concentration and institutional quality is negative and significant. Research limitations/implications Building on Petersen and Rajans’ (1995) argument, this study suggests that in the absence of an appropriate level of institutional quality, banks in MENA region can depend on their market power to protect their benefits. This can be achieved by building long-term relationships with their borrowers to provide continuing credit and subsequently enhancing economic growth. Practical implications Under the low level of institutional quality in MENA countries, regulators and decision-makers should thoroughly think before imposing any policy that aims to restrict banking market power because such action could harm the economy. Social implications In developing countries, banking concentration may have a positive impact on the economy. This outcome may lead to an improvement in the standard of living for the society. Originality/value This is the first known study, to the best of our knowledge, that examines the role of institutional quality in shaping the relationship between economic growth and banking concentration in MENA countries. The authors opted to select MENA countries’ data because they generally reflect an institutional setting similar to many developing countries. Therefore, the results could be applicable in many developing economies and will encourage other researchers to investigate this proposition.

Examining the Relationship Between Corruption, Economic Growth, Environmental Degradation, and Energy Consumption: a Panel Analysis in MENA Region

The aim of this study is to investigate whether energy consumption, corruption, environmental quality, and political instability affect economic growth in 13 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1984–2012 using both the static (POLS, FE, and RE) and dynamic (Diff-GMM and Sys-GMM) panel data approaches. The empirical results show that the increased corruption directly affects economic growth, environmental quality, and energy consumption. However, corruption has an indirect effect on economic growth through energy consumption and environmental quality, an indirect effect on environmental quality through economic growth and an indirect effect on energy consumption through CO2 emissions and GDP. Indeed, energy consumption and CO2 emissions affected the economic growth. Meanwhile, economic growth effected CO2 emissions and energy consumption, and finally, CO2 emissions affected economic growth. Our paper addresses these important issues using the general method of moments (GMM) in panel data. We also find that economic growth in MENA countries reacts negatively to the environmental degradation and political instability. These empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers as they help to build sound economic policies to sustain economic development.

The Impact of Globalization on the Fight for Equality: How Participation in the Global Economy Can Improve the Rights of Women in the Middle East and North Africa

According to “Freedom in the World,” the global assessment of political rights and civil liberties issued annually by Freedom House, women throughout the MENA region continue to face systemic discrimination that is enshrined in both laws and social customs. They do not enjoy equal rights as citizens, nor do they have a full, independent legal identity. While there have been reforms adopted in recent years, such as the new family code enacted in Morocco that have the potential to trigger wide-ranging gains for women’s rights, the passage of laws that putatively guarantee equal rights for women and men will mean little if those guarantees are not enforced. This chapter argues that in order to make major progress towards women’s equality in the MENA region, a variety of methodologies and pathways must be pursued. One pathway to achieving gender equality is through harnessing the power of our global economy to bring not just money, but the impetus for important social change. Although there are complications and risks, globalization is the key to decreasing the earning gap between men and women. Reducing the earning gap between men and women in turn leads to increasing awareness of global women’s issues and decreasing discrimination, segregation, and mistreatment around the world. In this article I will focus on how economic globalization can lead to improvements in the rights and freedoms of women in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. In Part I, I will discuss the legal, social, and economic status of women in the MENA countries. In Part II, I will examine how globalization encourages women to enter the workforce and how this leads to improvements in the roles, rights, and protections of women globally. In Part III, I will comment on the social and legal restrictions that limit those improvements. Finally, in Part IV I will advocate for an Islamic feminist interpretation of the Qur’an in an effort to reduce the constraints which limit the positive effects of globalization in the MENA region so that globalization can be used as a tool to secure greater freedom of movement, freedom of expression, and freedom of choice for women in MENA countries.

Financial Development and Economic Growth in the MENA Region

This paper investigates the impact of stock markets and banks on economic growth in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. The sample comprises a panel data from 13 MENA countries over the period 1988–2009. This paper uses recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels. The findings suggest that stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth in the MENA countries only during periods of stability. Our results are robust to several specifications and potential biases induced by simultaneity, omitted variables and unobserved country specific effects.