Midlatitude Dynamics Research Articles

Atmospheric Moisture Decreases Midlatitude Eddy Kinetic Energy

Abstract There is compelling evidence that atmospheric moisture may either increase or decrease midlatitude eddy kinetic energy (EKE). We reconcile these findings by using a hierarchy of idealized atmospheric models to demonstrate that moisture energizes individual eddies given fixed large-scale background winds and temperatures but makes those background conditions less favorable for eddy growth. For climates similar to the present day, the latter effect wins out, and moisture weakens midlatitude eddy activity. The model hierarchy includes a moist two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model and an idealized moist general circulation model (GCM). In the QG model, EKE increases when moisture is added to simulations with fixed baroclinicity, closely following a previously derived scaling. But in both models, moisture decreases EKE when environmental conditions are allowed to vary. We explain these results by examining the models’ mean available potential energy (MAPE) and by calculating terms in the models’ Lorenz energy cycles. In the QG model, the EKE decreases because precipitation preferentially forms on the poleward side of the jet, releasing latent heat where the model is relatively cold and decreasing the MAPE, hence the EKE. In the moist GCM, the MAPE primarily decreases because the midlatitude stability increases as the model is moistened, with reduced meridional temperature gradients playing a secondary role. Together, these results clarify moisture’s role in driving the midlatitude circulation and also highlight several drawbacks of QG models for studying moist processes in midlatitudes. Significance Statement Dry models of the atmosphere have played a central role in the study of large-scale atmospheric dynamics. But we know that moisture adds much complexity, associated with phase changes, its effect on atmospheric stability, and the release of latent heat during condensation. Here, we take an important step toward incorporating moisture into our understanding of midlatitude dynamics by reconciling two diverging lines of literature, which suggest that atmospheric moisture can either increase or decrease midlatitude eddy kinetic energy. We explain these opposing results by showing that moisture not only makes individual eddies more energetic but also makes the environment in which eddies form less favorable for eddy growth. For climates similar to the present day, the latter effect wins out such that moisture decreases atmospheric eddy kinetic energy. We demonstrate this point using several different idealized atmospheric models, which allow us to gradually add complexity and to smoothly vary between moist and dry climates. These results add fundamental understanding to how moisture affects midlatitude climates, including how its effects change in warmer and moisture climates, while also highlighting some drawbacks of the idealized atmospheric models.

Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region

Abstract. Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. Due to their role in weather extremes and atmospheric predictability, regimes that feature a blocking anticyclone are of particular interest. This study investigates the dynamics of these “blocked” regimes in the North Atlantic–European region from a year-round perspective. For a comprehensive diagnostic, wave activity concepts and a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) tendency framework are combined. The latter essentially quantifies the well-established PV perspective of mid-latitude dynamics. The four blocked regimes (namely Atlantic ridge, European blocking, Scandinavian blocking, and Greenland blocking) during the 1979–2021 period of ERA5 reanalysis are considered. Wave activity characteristics exhibit distinct differences between blocked regimes. After regime onset, Greenland blocking is associated with a suppression of wave activity flux, whereas Atlantic ridge and European blocking are associated with a northward deflection of the flux without a clear net change. During onset, the envelope of Rossby wave activity retracts upstream for Greenland blocking, whereas the envelope extends downstream for Atlantic ridge and European blocking. Scandinavian blocking exhibits intermediate wave activity characteristics. From the perspective of piecewise PV tendencies projected onto the respective regime pattern, the dynamics that govern regime onset exhibit a large degree of similarity: linear Rossby wave dynamics and nonlinear eddy PV fluxes dominate and are of approximately equal relative importance, whereas baroclinic coupling and divergent amplification make minor contributions. Most strikingly, all blocked regimes exhibit very similar (intra-regime) variability: a retrograde and an upstream pathway to regime onset. The retrograde pathway is dominated by nonlinear PV eddy fluxes, whereas the upstream pathway is dominated by linear Rossby wave dynamics. Importantly, there is a large degree of cancellation between the two pathways for some of the mechanisms before regime onset. The physical meaning of a regime-mean perspective before onset can thus be severely limited. Implications of our results for understanding predictability of blocked regimes are discussed. Further discussed are the limitations of projected tendencies in capturing the importance of moist-baroclinic growth, which tends to occur in regions where the amplitude of the regime pattern, and thus the projection onto it, is small. Finally, it is stressed that this study investigates the variability of the governing dynamics without prior empirical stratification of data by season or by type of regime transition. It is demonstrated, however, that our dynamics-centered approach does not merely reflect variability that is associated with these factors. The main modes of dynamical variability revealed herein and the large similarity of the blocked regimes in exhibiting this variability are thus significant results.

Relating Patterns of Added and Redistributed Ocean Warming

Abstract Ocean warming patterns are a primary control on regional sea level rise and transient climate sensitivity. However, controls on these patterns in both observations and models are not fully understood, complicated as they are by their dependence on the “addition” of heat to the ocean’s interior along background ventilation pathways and on the “redistribution” of heat between regions by changing ocean dynamics. While many previous studies attribute heat redistribution to changes in high-latitude processes, here we propose that substantial heat redistribution is explained by the large-scale adjustment of the geostrophic flow to warming within the pycnocline. We explore this hypothesis in the University of Victoria Earth System Model, estimating added heat using the transport matrix method. We find that throughout the midlatitudes, subtropics, and tropics, patterns of added and redistributed heat in the model are strongly anticorrelated (R ≈ −0.75). We argue that this occurs because changes in ocean currents, acting across pre-existing temperature gradients, redistribute heat away from regions of strong passive heat convergence. Over broad scales, this advective response can be estimated from changes in upper-ocean density alone using the thermal wind relation and is linked to an adjustment of the subtropical pycnocline. These results highlight a previously unappreciated relationship between added and redistributed heat and emphasize the role that subtropical and midlatitude dynamics play in setting patterns of ocean heat storage. Significance Statement The point of our study was to better understand the geographic pattern of ocean warming caused by human-driven climate change. Warming patterns are challenging to predict because they are sensitive both to how the ocean absorbs heat from the atmosphere and to how ocean currents change in response to increased emissions. We showed that these processes are not independent of one another: in many regions, changes in ocean currents reduce regional variations in the build-up of new heat absorbed from the atmosphere. This finding may help to constrain future projections of regional ocean warming, which matters because ocean warming patterns have a major influence on regional sea level rise, marine ecosystem degradation, and the rate of atmospheric warming.

A topological perspective on weather regimes

It has long been suggested that the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation possesses what has come to be known as ‘weather regimes’, loosely categorised as regions of phase space with above-average density and/or extended persistence. Their existence and behaviour has been extensively studied in meteorology and climate science, due to their potential for drastically simplifying the complex and chaotic mid-latitude dynamics. Several well-known, simple non-linear dynamical systems have been used as toy-models of the atmosphere in order to understand and exemplify such regime behaviour. Nevertheless, no agreed-upon and clear-cut definition of a ‘regime’ exists in the literature, and unambiguously detecting their existence in the atmospheric circulation is stymied by the high dimensionality of the system. We argue here for an approach which equates the existence of regimes in a dynamical system with the existence of non-trivial topological structure of the system’s attractor. We show using persistent homology, an algorithmic tool in topological data analysis, that this approach is computationally tractable, practically informative, and identifies the relevant regime structure across a range of examples.

Characterising the interaction of tropical and extratropical air masses controlling East Asian summer monsoon progression using a novel frontal detection approach

Abstract. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a complex phenomenon, influenced by both tropical and mid-latitude dynamics and by the presence of the Tibetan Plateau. The EASM front (EASMF) separates tropical and extratropical air masses as the monsoon marches northwards. Although the different factors behind EASM progression are illustrated in a number of studies, their interactions, in particular between tropical and extratropical air masses, still need to be clarified. In this study we apply Eulerian and Lagrangian methods to the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to provide a comprehensive study of the seasonal progression of and interannual variability in the EASM, and we highlight the dynamics of the air masses converging at its front. A frontal detection algorithm is used to perform a front-centred analysis of EASM progression. The analysis highlights the primary role of the subtropical westerly jet (STWJ) and of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in controlling the strength and the poleward progression of the EASMF, in particular during Mei Yu, the primary stage of EASM progression. These forcings act to steer the southerly advection of low-level moist tropical air, modulated by the seasonal cycle of the Asian monsoon. The Mei Yu stage is distinguished by an especially clear interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the EASMF. The analysis of composites based on the latitude of the EASMF during Mei Yu reveals the influence exerted by the STWJ on the cool extratropical flow impacting on the northern side of the EASMF, whose progression is also dependent on the location of the WNPSH. In turn, this affects the extent of the warm moist advection on its southern side and the distribution and intensity of resultant rainfall over China. This study shows the validity of an analysis of EASM progression focused on its front and on the related low- and mid-level airstreams, at least in the Mei Yu stage. The framework highlighted shows how the regional flow over East Asia drives the low-level airstreams that converge at the EASMF, thus controlling the shape of EASM progression. This framework provides a basis for studies of climate variability and extreme events and for model evaluation.

QG–DL–Ekman: Dynamics of a Diabatic Layer in the Quasi-Geostrophic Framework

AbstractQuasigeostrophic (QG) theory describes the dynamics of synoptic-scale flows in the troposphere that are balanced with respect to both acoustic and internal gravity waves. Within this framework, effects of (turbulent) friction near the ground are usually represented by Ekman layer theory. The troposphere covers roughly the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere while Ekman layer heights are typically just a few hundred meters. However, this two-layer asymptotic theory does not explicitly account for substantial changes of the potential temperature stratification due to diabatic heating associated with cloud formation or with radiative and turbulent heat fluxes which can be significant in about the lowest 3 km and in the middle latitudes. To address this deficiency, this paper extends the classical QG–Ekman layer model by introducing an intermediate dynamically and thermodynamically active layer, called the “diabatic layer” (DL) from here on. The flow in this layer is also in acoustic, hydrostatic, and geostrophic balance but, in contrast to QG flow, variations of potential temperature are not restricted to small deviations from a stable and time-independent background stratification. Instead, within the DL diabatic processes are allowed to affect the leading-order stratification. As a consequence, this layer modifies the pressure field at the top of the Ekman layer, and with it the intensity of Ekman pumping seen by the quasigeostrophic bulk flow. The result is the proposed extended quasigeostrophic three-layer QG–DL–Ekman model for midlatitude dynamics.

Mesoscale spatio-temporal variability of airborne lidar-derived aerosol properties in the Barbados region during EUREC<sup>4</sup>A

Abstract. From 23 January to 13 February 2020, 20 ATR-42 scientific flights were conducted in the framework of the EUREC4A field campaign over the tropical Atlantic, off the coast of Barbados (13∘30′ N, −58∘30′ W). By means of a sideway-pointing lidar, these flights allowed us to retrieve the optical properties of the aerosols found in the sub-cloud layer and below the trade wind inversion. Two distinct periods with significant aerosol contents were identified in relationship with the so-called trade wind and tropical regimes, respectively. For these two regimes, mixings of two air mass types encompassing dust and carbonaceous aerosols have been highlighted. Both were mainly from West Africa with similar optical contributions and linked to dust uptake above Sahara and biomass burning between Guinea-Bissau and Côte d'Ivoire. In the tropical transport regime, the wind within the planetary boundary layer is stronger and favours a contribution of marine aerosols (sulfate and sea salt aerosol components) in shallower aerosol layers than for the trade wind transport regime. The latter is responsible for advecting dust–biomass-burning-aerosol mixtures in the deeper, well-mixed layer, in part due to the complex interactions of the easterly flow from West Africa with mid-latitude dynamics. The aerosol vertical structures appear to be well reproduced using atmospheric composition reanalyses from CAMS when comparing with lidar-derived vertical profiles. The competition between the two types of transport regimes leads to strong heterogeneity in the optical properties of the horizontal aerosol field. Our study highlights the transport regime under which a significant mixture of dust and biomass burning aerosols from West Africa can be observed over the Caribbean and Barbados in particular, namely the trade wind regime.

Potential-vorticity dynamics of troughs and ridges within Rossby wave packets during a 40-year reanalysis period

Abstract. Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are fundamental to midlatitude dynamics and govern weather systems from their individual life cycles to their climatological distributions. Renewed interest in RWPs as precursors to high-impact weather events and in the context of atmospheric predictability motivates this study to revisit the dynamics of RWPs. A quantitative potential-vorticity (PV) framework is employed. Based on the well-established PV thinking of midlatitude dynamics, the processes governing RWP amplitude evolution comprise group propagation of Rossby waves, baroclinic interaction, the impact of upper-tropospheric divergent flow, and direct diabatic PV modification by nonconservative processes. An advantage of the PV framework is that the impact of moist processes is more directly diagnosed than in alternative, established frameworks for RWP dynamics. The mean dynamics of more than 6000 RWPs from 1979–2017 are presented using ERA5 data, complemented with nonconservative tendencies from the Year of Tropical Convection data (available 2008–2010). Confirming a pre-existing model of RWP dynamics, group propagation within RWPs is consistent with linear barotropic theory, and baroclinic and divergent amplifications occur most prominently during the mature stage and towards the trailing edge of RWPs. Refining the pre-existing model, the maximum of divergent amplification occurs in advance of maximum baroclinic growth, and baroclinic interaction tends to weaken RWP amplitude towards the leading edge. “Downstream baroclinic development” is confirmed to provide a valid description of RWP dynamics in both summer and winter, although baroclinic growth is substantially smaller (about 50 %) in summer. Longwave radiative cooling makes a first-order contribution to ridge and trough amplitude, with the potential that this contribution is partly associated with cloud-radiative effects. The direct impact of other nonconservative tendencies, including latent heat release, is an order of magnitude smaller than longwave radiative cooling. Arguably, latent heat release still has a substantial impact on RWPs by invigorating upper-tropospheric divergence. The divergent flow amplifies ridges and weakens troughs. This impact is of leading order and larger than that of baroclinic growth. To the extent that divergence is associated with latent heat release below, our results show that moist processes contribute to the well-known asymmetry in the spatial scale of troughs and ridges. For ridges, divergent amplification is strongly coupled to baroclinic growth and enhanced latent heat release. We thus propose that the life cycle of ridges is best described in terms of downstream moist-baroclinic development. Consistent with theories of moist-baroclinic instability, both the amplitude and the relative location of latent heat release within the developing wave pattern depend on the state of the baroclinic development. Taking this “phasing” aspect into account, we provide some evidence that variability in the strength of divergent ridge amplification can predominantly be attributed to variability in latent heat release below rather than to secondary circulations associated with the dry dynamics of a baroclinic wave.

Zonal scale and temporal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in an idealised numerical model

Abstract. The upper-level monsoon anticyclone is studied in a 3D dry dynamical model as the response of a background circulation without any imposed zonal structure to a steady imposed zonally confined heat source. The characteristics of the background circulation are determined by thermal relaxation towards a simple meridionally varying state, which gives rise to baroclinic instability if meridional gradients are sufficiently large. This model configuration allows the study of the dependence of the monsoon anticyclone response on characteristics of both the imposed heating and the background state, in particular including interactions between the anticyclone and the active dynamics on its poleward side in the form of a jet and baroclinic eddies. As characteristics of forcing and background state are varied a range of different behaviours emerges, many of which strongly resemble phenomena and features associated with the monsoon anticyclone as observed in re-analysis data. For a resting background state the time-mean anticyclone is highly extended in longitude to the west of the forcing region. When the active mid-latitude dynamics is included the zonal extent of the time-mean anticyclone is limited, without any need for the explicit upper-level momentum dissipation which is often included in simple theoretical models but difficult to justify physically. We further describe in detail the spontaneous emergence of temporal variability in the form of westward eddy shedding from the monsoon anticyclone for varying strength of the imposed heating. By varying the strength of the background mid-latitude dynamics we observe a transition of the system from a state with periodic westward eddy shedding to a state dominated by eastward shedding. The details of the time-mean structure and temporal evolution depend on the structure of the background flow, and for certain flows the monsoon anticyclone shows signs of both westward and eastward shedding.

Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

AbstractThe physical and dynamical processes associated with warm conveyor belts (WCBs) importantly affect midlatitude dynamics and are sources of forecast uncertainty. Moreover, WCBs modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation and can communicate and amplify forecast errors. Therefore, it is desirable to assess the representation of WCBs in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in particular on the medium to subseasonal forecast range. Most often, WCBs are identified as coherent bundles of Lagrangian trajectories that ascend in a time interval of 2 days from the lower to the upper troposphere. Although this Lagrangian approach has advanced the understanding of the involved processes significantly, the calculation of trajectories is computationally expensive and requires NWP data at a high spatial [], vertical [], and temporal resolution []. In this study, we present a statistical framework that derives footprints of WCBs from coarser NWP data that are routinely available. To this end, gridpoint-specific multivariate logistic regression models are developed for the Northern Hemisphere using meteorological parameters from ERA-Interim data as predictors and binary footprints of WCB inflow, ascent, and outflow based on a Lagrangian dataset as predictands. Stepwise forward selection identifies the most important predictors for these three WCB stages. The logistic models are reliable in replicating the climatological frequency of WCBs as well as the footprints of WCBs at instantaneous time steps. The novel framework is a first step toward a systematic evaluation of WCB representation in large datasets such as subseasonal ensemble reforecasts or climate projections.

Recent climate variability around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) seen through weather regimes

AbstractDaily weather regimes are defined around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies derived from the ERA5 ensemble reanalysis over the period 1979-2018. Ten regimes are retained as significant. Their occurrences are highly consistent across reanalysis ensemble members. Regimes show weak seasonality and non-significant long-term trends in their occurrences. Their sequences are usually short (1-3 days), with extreme persistence values above 10 days. Seasonal regime frequency is mostly driven by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode over Antarctica, mid-latitude dynamics over the Southern Ocean like the Pacific South American mode, and to a lesser extent, tropical variability, with significant but weaker relationships with El Niño Southern Oscillation. At the local scale over the Kerguelen Islands, regimes have a strong influence on measured atmospheric and oceanic variables, including minimum and maximum air temperature, mostly driven by horizontal advections, sea water temperature recorded 5 m below the surface, wind speed and sea level pressure. Relationships are weaker for precipitation amounts. Regimes also modify regional contrasts between observational sites in Kerguelen, highlighting strong exposure contrasts. The regimes allow improving our understanding of weather and climate variability and interactions in this region; they will be used in future work to assess past and projected long-term circulation changes in the southern mid-latitudes.

Clustering circulation in eastern Asia as a tool for exploring possible mechanisms of extreme events and sources of model error

Every summer in eastern Asia, the combined effects of complex topography, multiple potential moisture sources and a mixture of sub-tropical and mid-latitude dynamics produces an environment, in which subtle differences in spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation can profoundly affect the geographic distribution of rainfall. Understanding and quantifying these patterns is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand, predict or project rainfall events likely to cause impacts to society in the region. To help the scientific community with this task, a method is presented here, in which spatial patterns of summer sea level pressure over eastern Asia are clustered into a set of eight circulation types, with examples given of their potential use. We find that the within-season prevalence of individual circulation types exhibit a strong relationship with the seasonal progression of the summer monsoon whilst providing a spatially coherent, physical interpretation of the monsoon for all parts of eastern Asia. Beyond this, the clustering approach permits the attribution of notable rainfall anomalies in almost any location within the domain used to build the clusters. Examples are given, showing how circulation specific moisture transport anomalies in one part of China can result in anomalously dry days in another part of the country. Two further applications of the clustering approach are demonstrated using climate simulations. The first is of circulation specific model errors which can allow targeted model development. The second provides information about anomalies which are plausible, but have yet to be observed, possibly due to limitations in the observed record.

Mid-level convection in a warm conveyor belt accelerates the jet stream

Abstract. Jet streams and potential vorticity (PV) gradients along upper-level ridges, troughs and zonal flows form a waveguide that governs midlatitude dynamics. Warm conveyor belt (WCB) outflows often inject low-PV air into ridges, and the representation of WCBs is seen as a source of uncertainty for downstream forecasts. Recent studies have highlighted the presence of mesoscale structures with negative PV in WCBs, the impact of which, on large-scale dynamics, is still debated. Here, fine-scale observations of cloud and wind structures acquired with airborne Doppler radar and dropsondes provide rare information on the WCB outflow of the Stalactite cyclone and the associated upper-level ridge on 2 October 2016 during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX). The observations show a complex tropopause structure associated with two jet stream cores along the northwestern edge of the ridge. A reference convection-permitting simulation with full physics reproduces the observed structures and reveals the presence of elongated negative PV bands along the eastern jet stream core. In contrast, a sensitivity experiment with heat exchanges due to cloud processes being cut off shows lower cloud tops, weaker jet stream cores, a ridge less extended westward and the absence of negative PV bands. A Lagrangian analysis based on online trajectories shows that the anticyclonic branch of the WCB outflow enters the eastern jet stream core in the reference simulation, while it is absent in the sensitivity experiment. The anticyclonic ascents and negative PV bands originate from the same region near the cyclone's bent-back front. The most rapid ascents coincide with mid-level convective cells identified by clustering analysis, which are located in a region of conditional instability below the jet stream core and above a low-level jet. Horizontal PV dipoles are found around these cells, with the negative poles reaching absolute negative values, and the convective cells thus appear as the source of the negative PV bands. The results show that mid-level convection within WCBs accelerates the jet stream and may influence the downstream large-scale circulation.

Organization of convective ascents in a warm conveyor belt

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are warm, moist airstreams of extratropical cyclones leading to widespread clouds and heavy precipitation, where associated diabatic processes can influence midlatitude dynamics. Although WCBs are traditionally seen as continuous slantwise ascents, recent studies have emphasized the presence of embedded convection, the impact of which on large-scale dynamics is still debated. Here, detailed cloud and wind measurements obtained with airborne Doppler radar provide unique information on the WCB of the Stalactite cyclone on 2 October 2016 during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. The measurements are complemented by a convection-permitting simulation, enabling online Lagrangian trajectories and 3-D objects clustering. Trajectories rising by 150 hPa during a relatively short 12 h window are identified as ascents and examined in the WCB region. One-third take an anticyclonic turn at upper levels, while two-thirds follow the cyclonic flow at lower levels. Identified trajectories that reach a 100 hPa (2 h)−1 threshold are further categorized as fast ascents. They represent one-third of the ascents and are located at lower levels mainly. Both radar observations and simulation reveal the presence of convective updrafts in the WCB region, which are characterized by moderate reflectivity values up to 20 dBZ. Fast ascents and updraft objects with vertical velocities above 0.3 m s−1 consistently show three main types of convection in the WCB region: (i) frontal convection along the surface cold front and the western edge of the low-level jet, (ii) banded convection at about 2 km altitude along the eastern edge of the low-level jet, and (iii) mid-level convection below the upper-level jet. Frontal and banded convection result in shallow ascents, while mid-level convection contributes to the anticyclonic WCB outflow. The results emphasize that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.

Airmass analysis of the processes driving the progression of the Indian summer monsoon

AbstractThe Indian summer monsoon is a vital source of water and a cause of severe impacts for more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent. The INCOMPASS project investigates the mechanisms driving its onset and progression through an observational field campaign supplemented by high‐resolution numerical simulations for the 2016 season using UK Met Office models. A 4.4 km resolution convection‐permitting limited‐area model simulation (driven at its boundaries by a daily‐initialised global model) is used in this study, and verified against observations, along with short‐lead‐time operational global forecasts. These data show that the monsoon progression towards northwest India in June 2016 is a non‐steady process, modulated by the interaction between moist low‐level southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and a northwesterly incursion of descending dry air from western and central Asia. The location and extent of these two flows are closely linked to midlatitude dynamics, through the southward propagation of potential vorticity streamers and the associated formation of cyclonic circulations in the region where the two airmasses interact. Particular focus is devoted to the use of Lagrangian trajectories to characterise the evolution of the airstreams and complement the Eulerian monsoon progression analysis. The trajectories confirm that the interaction of the two airstreams is a primary driver of the general moistening of the troposphere associated with monsoon progression. They also indicate the occurrence of local diabatic processes along the airstreams, such as turbulent mixing and local evaporation from the Arabian Sea, in addition to moisture transport from remote sources. In summary, this combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis reveals the non‐steady nature of monsoon progression towards northwest India. This process is driven by the interaction of different airmasses and influenced by a synergy of factors on a variety of scales, such as midlatitude dynamics, transient weather systems and local diabatic processes.

A 30-Yr Climatology of Meteorological Conditions Associated with Lightning Days in the Interior Western United States

AbstractA 30-yr climatology of lightning days and associated synoptic meteorological patterns are characterized across the interior western United States (WUS). Locally centered composite analyses show preferred synoptic meteorological patterns with positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies located to the northeast and negative sea level pressure anomalies to the northwest and collocated with local lightning days. Variations in preferred patterns for local lightning days are seen across the interior WUS. Areas not commonly affected by the North American monsoon system including the western Great Basin and northern Rocky Mountains show higher-amplitude anomalies of geopotential height, moisture, and midtropospheric instability patterns suggesting the importance of episodic midlatitude dynamics to lightning days in such locations. By contrast, locations closer to the core of the North American monsoon show weaker anomalies, likely reflecting the prevalence of favorable mesoscale dynamics key to lightning production during warm-season months in locations in the interior Southwest. Meteorological patterns for select locations are explored in more detail and two case studies of notably active lightning events are presented. Results from this observational analysis provide a foundation for evaluating meteorological conditions on lightning days in climate model simulations for the interior WUS.

Changing dynamical control of early Asian summer monsoon in the mid-1990s

The seasonal evolution of the upper tropospheric South Asian high follows and influences underlying summer monsoon advancement. A strong connection between the South Asian high and westerly perturbation to the north suggests further planetary-scale dynamical control of the monsoon. In the mid-1990s, a clear location shift of the South Asian high in May–June was noted and was observed in fewer (more) frequencies of the high centers over the Indochina Peninsula (Iranian Plateau). Continental confinement of monsoonal circulation and precipitation was observed during 1995–2010, as opposed to larger-scale development in the Asia–Pacific region during 1979–1994. In view of early-summer monsoon evolution, a westward shifting and faster migration of the South Asian high may imply increased control of the midlatitude dynamics. By contrast, the convection over the tropical Western North Pacific (WNP) has an opposite and delayed contribution to monsoon advancement. After the mid-1990s than it had been previously, the midlatitude jet stream largely weakened over northern Africa and the East Asia–Pacific region, corresponding to an increase in the upper tropospheric geopotential heights north of the jet stream. Climate model experiments further reveal that the warming over Europe–Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic can result in the change in midlatitude perturbations and the monsoon evolution in the mid-1990s, suggesting large-scale and dynamic impact on monsoon climatology.

Resolution Dependence and Rossby Wave Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers in an Aquaplanet Model

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are examined in a set of aquaplanet simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales dynamical core run at multiple horizontal resolutions, namely, 240, 120, and 60 km. As the resolution is increased, there is an increase in the occurrence of long‐lasting ARs. At the same time there is also an increase in the local finite‐amplitude wave activity (LWA) of upper‐tropospheric absolute vorticity, a measure for Rossby wave phase and amplitude that is closely linked with wave breaking. Consistent with the notion that changes in ARs are driven by midlatitude dynamics, a strong relationship is identified between ARs and the equatorward component of LWA. A logistic regression model is used to quantify the probability of AR occurrence based solely on LWA and explains most of the change in AR frequency with resolution. LWA is a diagnostic that may be easily applied to the broadly available output of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project and other model simulations, thus enabling scientists to infer AR and Rossby wave characteristics. AR characteristics, in particular, require higher‐resolution moisture and winds at multiple levels that are not always easily available.

Late Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation in the CESM Large Ensemble

AbstractProjected changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation at the end of the twenty-first century are investigated using coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). Different metrics are used to describe the response of the midlatitude atmospheric dynamics in 40 ensemble members covering the 1920–2100 period. Contrasted responses are identified depending on the season and longitudinal sector that are considered. In winter, a slowdown of the zonal flow and an increase in waviness is found over North America, while the European sector exhibits a reinforced westerly flow and decreased waviness. Extreme temperature events in midlatitudes are more sensitive to thermodynamical than dynamical changes, and a general decrease in the intensity of wintertime cold spells is found. Analyses of individual ensemble members reveal a large spread in circulation changes due to internal variability. Causes for this spread are found to be tied to the Arctic amplification in the Pacific–North American sector and to the polar stratosphere in the North Atlantic. A competition mechanism is also discussed between the midlatitude response to polar versus tropical changes. While the upper-tropospheric tropical warming pushes the jet stream poleward, in winter, Arctic amplification and the weaker polar vortex exert an opposite effect. This competition results in a narrowing of the jet path in the midlatitudes, leading to decreased/unchanged waviness/blockings. This interpretation somewhat reconciles conflicting results between the hypothesized effect of Arctic amplification and projected changes in midlatitude flow characteristics. This study also illustrates that further understanding of regional processes is critical for anticipating changes in the midlatitude dynamics.

On the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Heat Transport in a Hierarchy of Models

Abstract The present study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of zonally integrated meridional atmospheric heat transport due to transient eddies in a hierarchy of datasets. These include a highly idealized two-layer model seeded with point geostrophic vortices, an intermediate complexity GCM, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. The domain of interest is the extratropics. Both the two-layer model and the GCM display a pronounced temporal variability in the zonally integrated meridional transport, with the largest values (or pulses) of zonally integrated transport being associated with extended regions of anomalously strong local heat transport. In the two-layer model these large-scale coherent transport regions, termed “heat transport bands,” are linked to densely packed baroclinic vortex pairs and can be diagnosed as low-wavenumber streamfunction anomalies. In the GCM they are associated with both the warm and cold sectors of midlatitude weather systems. Both these features are also found in ERA-Interim: the heat transport bands match weather systems and occur primarily in the storm-track regions, which in turn correspond to planetary-scale climatological streamfunction anomalies. The authors hypothesize that the temporal variability of the zonally integrated heat transport is partly linked to oscillatory variations in the storm-track activity but also contains a background red noise component. The existence of a pronounced variability in the zonally integrated meridional heat transport can have important consequences for the interplay between midlatitude dynamics and the energy balance of the high latitudes.