Midlatitude Circulation Research Articles

Response of eddy activities to localized diabatic heating in Held–Suarez simulations

Widespread air pollutions, such as black carbon over East Asia in recent years, could induce a localized diabatic heating, and thus lead to localized static stability and meridional temperature gradient (MTG) changes. Although effect of static stability and MTG on eddies has been addressed by the linear baroclinic instability theory, impacts of a localized heating on mid-latitude eddy activities have not been well explored and quantified. Via a series of idealized global Held–Suarez simulations with different magnitudes of localized heating at different altitudes and latitudes, responses of mid-latitude eddy activity and circulation to these temperature perturbations are systematically investigated. Climatologically, the localized heating in the lower atmosphere induces a wave-like response of eddy activity near the mid-latitude jet stream. Over the heating region, eddy activity tends to be weakening due to the increased static stability. However, there are cyclonic anomalies over the upstream and downstream of the heating region. The zonal mean eddy activity weakens along the baroclinic zone due to reduced MTG and increased static stability. Furthermore, the response of eddy activity increased as the heating magnitude is increased and moved to higher altitudes. The influence of the heating decreases as the heating is prescribed further away from the climatological mid-latitude jet. This implies that the localized heating is most effective over the region with the maximum baroclinicity. Besides, enhanced storm track downstream of the localized heating area found here suggests that increased aerosols over East Asia might strengthen the North Pacific storm track.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

Previous single‐model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January–March), when the sea ice‐related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single‐model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Fast and Slow Components of the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to CO2 Forcing

Abstract Poleward shifts of the extratropical atmospheric circulation are a common response to CO2 forcing in global climate models (GCMs), but little is known about the time dependence of this response. Here it is shown that in coupled climate models, the long-term evolution of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) induces two distinct time scales of circulation response to steplike CO2 forcing. In most GCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project as well as in the multimodel mean, all of the poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and Hadley cell edge occurs in a fast response within 5–10 years of the forcing, during which less than half of the expected equilibrium warming is realized. Compared with this fast response, the slow response over subsequent decades to centuries features stronger polar amplification (especially in the Antarctic), enhanced warming in the Southern Ocean, an El Niño–like pattern of tropical Pacific warming, and weaker land–sea contrast. Atmosphere-only GCM experiments demonstrate that the SST evolution drives the difference between the fast and slow circulation responses, although the direct radiative effect of CO2 also contributes to the fast response. It is further shown that the fast and slow responses determine the long-term evolution of the circulation response to warming in the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results imply that shifts in midlatitude circulation generally scale with the radiative forcing, rather than with global-mean temperature change. A corollary is that time slices taken from a transient simulation at a given level of warming will considerably overestimate the extratropical circulation response in a stabilized climate.

Rainfall Characteristics of Recurving Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

A dataset of 88 recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones from 2004 to 2015 is investigated for rainfall characteristics during their period of recurvature. The TCs are categorized into two groups based on different large-scale patterns from empirical orthogonal function analysis. Group 1 is characterized by an intense midlatitude baroclinic zone and close distance between the zone and TC, while Group 2 is characterized by a weaker midlatitude baroclinic zone and more remote distance between the zone and TC at the time of recurvature. The results show the large-scale environment has substantial impact on TC rainfall patterns. In Group 1, as the TC approaches and is embedded into the baroclinic zone, a relatively strong interaction between the TC and midlatitudes occurs, which is reflected by a rapid increase of environmental vertical wind shear and TC translation speed, the alignment of the shear vector and motion vector, and a sharp contrast of temperature and moisture. Higher rainfall and wider coverage of rainfall tends to be produced along the track after recurvature, and the rainfall pattern turns from a right-of-track (ROT) to a left-of-track (LOT) preference. Conversely, in Group 2, a relatively weak interaction between the TC and midlatitude circulation occurs, which is reflected by weaker vertical wind shear and slower TC motion, a separation of the shear vector and motion vector, and a weak gradient of temperature and moisture. The corresponding rainfall swath for Group 2 exhibits a narrower rainfall swath after recurvature. The rain pattern changes from a LOT to ROT preference.

Prominent Midlatitude Circulation Signature in High Asia's Surface Climate During Monsoon

AbstractHigh Asia has experienced strong environmental changes in recent decades, as evident in records of glaciers, lakes, tree rings, and vegetation. The multiscale understanding of the climatic drivers, however, is still incomplete. In particular, few systematic assessments have evaluated to what degree, if at all, the midlatitude westerly circulation modifies local surface climates in the reach of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This paper shows that a southward shift of the upper‐tropospheric westerlies contributes significantly to climate variability in the core monsoon season (July–September) by two prominent dipole patterns at the surface: cooling in the west of High Asia contrasts with warming in the east, while moist anomalies in the east and northwest occur with drying along the southwestern margins. Circulation anomalies help to understand the dipoles and coincide with shifts in both the westerly wave train and the South Asian High, which imprint on air mass advection and local energy budgets. The relation of the variabilities to a well‐established index of midlatitude climate dynamics allows future research on climate proxies to include a fresh hypothesis for the interpretation of environmental changes.

Atmospheric Eddies Mediate Lapse Rate Feedback and Arctic Amplification

Projections of amplified climate change in the Arctic are attributed to positive feedbacks associated with the retreat of sea ice and changes in the lapse rate of the polar atmosphere. Here, a set of idealized aquaplanet experiments are performed to understand the coupling between high-latitude feedbacks, polar amplification, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Results are compared to CMIP5. Simulated climate responses are characterized by a wide range of polar amplification (from none to nearly 15-K warming, relative to the low latitudes) under CO2quadrupling. Notably, the high-latitude lapse rate feedback varies in sign among the experiments. The aquaplanet simulation with the greatest polar amplification, representing a transition from perennial to ice-free conditions, exhibits a marked decrease in dry static energy flux by transient eddies. Partly compensating for the reduced poleward energy flux is a contraction of the Ferrel cell and an increase in latent energy flux. Enhanced eddy energy flux is consistent with the upper-tropospheric warming that occurs in all experiments and provides a remote influence on the polar lapse rate feedback. The main conclusions are that (i) given a large, localized change in meridional surface temperature gradient, the midlatitude circulation exhibits strong compensation between changes in dry and latent energy fluxes, and (ii) atmospheric eddies mediate the nonlinear interaction between surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks, rendering the high-latitude lapse rate feedback less positive than it would be otherwise. Consequently, the variability of the circulation response, and particularly the partitioning of energy fluxes, offers insights into understanding the magnitude of polar amplification.

Arctic cryosphere and Milankovitch forcing of Great Basin paleoclimate

Although Great Basin paleoclimate history has been examined for more than a century, the orbital-scale paleoclimate forcings remain poorly understood. Here we show – by a detailed phasing analysis of a well-dated stalagmite δ18O time series – that Great Basin paleoclimate is linearly related to, but lagged, the 23,000 yr precession cycle in northern hemisphere summer insolation by an average of 3240 years (−900 to 6600 yr range) over the last two glacial cycles. We interpret these lags as indicating that Great Basin climate is sensitive to and indirectly forced by changes in the cryosphere, as evidenced by fast and strong linkages to global ice volume and Arctic paleoclimate indicators. Mid-latitude atmospheric circulation was likely impacted by a northward shifted storm track and higher pressure over the region arising from decreased sea ice and snow cover. Because anthropogenic warming is expected to reduce northern hemisphere snow and ice cover, continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases is likely to result in warming and drying over coming centuries that will amplify a warming trend that began ~2400 years ago.

Why was the strengthening of rainfall in summer over the Yangtze River valley in 2016 less pronounced than that in 1998 under similar preceding El Niño events?—Role of midlatitude circulation in August

It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of El Nino, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 El Nino having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016—different to the positive anomaly of 1998. Further analysis suggests that the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016 could be attributable to the distinct circulation anomalies over the midlatitudes. The intensified “Silk Road Pattern” and upper-tropospheric geopotential height over the Urals region, both at their strongest since 1980, resulted in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over midlatitude East Asia with anomalous easterly flow over the middle-to-lower reaches of the YRV in the lower troposphere. This easterly flow reduced the climatological wind, weakened the water vapor transport, and induced the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016, as compared to that in 1998. Given the unique sub-seasonal variation of the YRV rainfall in summer 2016, more attention should be paid to midlatitude circulation—besides the signal in the tropics—to further our understanding of the predictability and variation of YRV summer rainfall.

Late Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation in the CESM Large Ensemble

AbstractProjected changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation at the end of the twenty-first century are investigated using coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). Different metrics are used to describe the response of the midlatitude atmospheric dynamics in 40 ensemble members covering the 1920–2100 period. Contrasted responses are identified depending on the season and longitudinal sector that are considered. In winter, a slowdown of the zonal flow and an increase in waviness is found over North America, while the European sector exhibits a reinforced westerly flow and decreased waviness. Extreme temperature events in midlatitudes are more sensitive to thermodynamical than dynamical changes, and a general decrease in the intensity of wintertime cold spells is found. Analyses of individual ensemble members reveal a large spread in circulation changes due to internal variability. Causes for this spread are found to be tied to the Arctic amplification in the Pacific–North American sector and to the polar stratosphere in the North Atlantic. A competition mechanism is also discussed between the midlatitude response to polar versus tropical changes. While the upper-tropospheric tropical warming pushes the jet stream poleward, in winter, Arctic amplification and the weaker polar vortex exert an opposite effect. This competition results in a narrowing of the jet path in the midlatitudes, leading to decreased/unchanged waviness/blockings. This interpretation somewhat reconciles conflicting results between the hypothesized effect of Arctic amplification and projected changes in midlatitude flow characteristics. This study also illustrates that further understanding of regional processes is critical for anticipating changes in the midlatitude dynamics.

The possible impact of the circumglobal wave train on the wet season dust storm activity over the northern Arabian Peninsula

This study examines the influence of mid-latitude circulation on the wet season (October–May) Dust Storm Activity (DSA) over the northern Arabian Peninsula for the period of 1983–2013, using observational and reanalysis gridded datasets. Dusty and clear days composites of the 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies reveal a pattern in the upper-levels which is strongly correlated with the mid-latitude circumglobal wave train (CGT) and exists 3 days prior to the outbreak of dust storms. The regional surface conditions (such as the mean sea level pressure; low-level temperature and winds, etc.) that favor the DSA over the northern Arabian Peninsula display significant correlations with the CGT on intraseasonal time scale. A time-lagged analysis reveals that the eastward propagating CGT influences the surface pressure over the northern Arabian Peninsula and adjacent areas—hence the DSA. The DSA over the northern Arabian Peninsula is found to be more frequent during the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the cold phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (La Nina), and less frequent during the negative phase of NAO and the warm phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (El Nino).

Pacific sea surface temperatures, midlatitude atmospheric circulation, and widespread interannual anomalies in western U.S. streamflow

AbstractWidespread droughts can have considerable impact on western United States (U.S.) streamflow but causes related to moisture delivery processes are not yet fully understood. Here we examine western U.S. streamflow records to identify robust leading modes of interannual variability and their links to patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation. The leading mode of streamflow variability, a pattern of west‐wide streamflow anomalies, accounts for approximately 50% of variability and is associated with persistent high‐pressure anomalies related to ridges off the Pacific North American coast. The second mode of variability accounts for approximately 25% of variability and is associated with ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific. Our results suggest that the leading mode of streamflow variability in the western U.S. is more strongly associated with internally driven midlatitude atmospheric variability than equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures.

The impacts of the Indian summer rainfall on North China summer rainfall

Previous studies have indicated a connection between interannual variations of the Indian and North China summer rainfall. An atmospheric circulation wave pattern over the mid-latitude Asia plays an important role in the connection. The present study compares the influence of the above-normal and below-normal Indian summer rainfall on the North China summer rainfall variations. Composite analysis shows that the mid-latitude Asian atmospheric circulation and the North China rainfall anomalies during summer tend to be anti-symmetric in above-normal and below-normal Indian rainfall years. Analysis indicates that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relation tends to be stronger when larger Indian rainfall anomaly occurs during a higher mean rainfall period. The observed long-term change in the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship cannot be explained by the impact of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study evaluates the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship in climate models. Analysis shows that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship differs largely among different climate models and among different simulations of a specific model. The relationship also displays obvious temporal variations in both individual and ensemble mean model simulations. This suggests an important role of the atmospheric internal variability in the change of the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship.

Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents–Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model

To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1–2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic.

A 16-ka oxygen-isotope record from Genggahai Lake on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Hydroclimatic evolution and changes in atmospheric circulation

Moisture source history and changes in atmospheric circulation are the most important attributes for portraying past climate changes and for estimating possible future trends. However, few climate records reflecting these attributes are available from the marginal zones of the Asian summer monsoon. Here, we present a record of the oxygen isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates (δ18Ocarb) of sequential sediments from Genggahai Lake in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Isotopic analyses were performed on the fine-grained carbonate fraction (<38 μm), mollusc shells, and stem encrustations from submerged plants. The stratigraphic variations of the δ18O record from the different carbonate components exhibit a remarkably similar pattern, probably reflecting the fact that δ18Ocarb variability was controlled primarily by changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the lake water (δ18OLW). Disequilibrium effects and water temperature are precluded as major factors affecting the δ18Ocarb variations. Genggahai Lake is hydrologically open and characterized by a rapid discharge rate, as indicated by analysis of the hydrological setting of the lake system and by the observed significant positive correlation between δ18OLW and the oxygen isotopic composition of the inflowing water (δ18OI). Under such hydrological conditions, we argue that the isotopic signals of different moisture sources should be reflected in the carbonate isotopic composition. Furthermore, placing the δ18Ocarb record in the context of regional palaeoclimate archives, we found that the isotopic signals, particularly the negative shifts from the average values, cannot be interpreted consistently, despite a process of evaporative enrichment at the lake surface. During the early- to mid-Holocene, low δ18Ocarb values during 10.6–9.4 and 7.4–6.3 ka were associated with higher lake levels, and thus the record may have been significantly affected by a strengthened Asian summer monsoon at those times and hence by a positive moisture balance. Isotopic depletions with similar magnitudes occurred at 15–14.5, 13.8–13.3, 12.5–11.4, 5.3–4.8, 3.7–3.4, 2.8–2.3, 1.7, 1.3, and 0.6 ka, i.e., within the Lateglacial and the late Holocene. These negative shifts in δ18Ocarb corresponded to lower lake-level phases, and most likely were a response to intensification of the mid-latitude westerly circulation that may have transported significantly more 18O-depleted moisture to the region, compared to that from the Asian summer monsoon. Overall, our results suggest that the alternating influence of the Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies played a significant role in determining the pattern of atmospheric circulation on the northeastern QTP.

How does the SST variability over the western North Atlantic Ocean control Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara Seas?

Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara Seas and its impacts on the mid-latitude circulations have been widely discussed. However, the specific mechanism that brings the warming still remains unclear. In this study, a possible cause of the regional Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara Seas during early winter (October–December) is suggested. We found that warmer sea surface temperature anomalies over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) modulate the transient eddies overlying the oceanic frontal region. The altered transient eddy vorticity flux acts as a source for the Rossby wave straddling the western North Atlantic and the Barents–Kara Seas (Scandinavian pattern), and induces a significant warm advection, increasing surface and lower-level temperature over the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean. The importance of the sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNAO and subsequent transient eddy forcing over the WNAO was also supported by both specially designed simple model experiments and general circulation model experiments.

Why Do Similar Patterns of Tropical Convection Yield Extratropical Circulation Anomalies of Opposite Sign?

Abstract Tropical precipitation anomalies associated with El Niño and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phase 1 (La Niña and MJO phase 5) are characterized by a tripole, with positive (negative) centers over the Indian Ocean and central Pacific and a negative (positive) center over the warm pool region. However, their midlatitude circulation responses over the North Pacific and North America tend to be of opposite sign. To investigate these differences in the extratropical response to tropical convection, the dynamical core of a climate model is used, with boreal winter climatology as the initial flow. The model is run using the full heating field for the above four cases, and with heating restricted to each of seven small domains located near or over the equator, to investigate which convective anomalies may be responsible for the different extratropical responses. An analogous observational study is also performed. For both studies, it is found that, despite having a similar tropical convective anomaly spatial pattern, the extratropical response to El Niño and MJO phase 1 (La Niña and MJO phase 5) is quite different. Most notably, responses with opposite-signed upper-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies are found over the eastern North Pacific, northwestern North America, and the southeastern United States. The extratropical response for each convective case most closely resembles that for the domain associated with the largest-amplitude precipitation anomaly: the central equatorial Pacific for El Niño and La Niña and the warm pool region for MJO phases 1 and 5.

The Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km Atmospheric Global Circulation Models

The aim of this study is to investigate if the representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking is sensitive to resolution in current-generation atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). An evaluation is conducted of how well atmospheric blocking is represented in four AGCMs whose horizontal resolution is increased from a grid spacing of more than 100 km to about 25 km. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated overall more credibly at higher resolution (i.e., in better agreement with a 50-yr reference blocking climatology created from the reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The improvement seen with resolution depends on the season and to some extent on the model considered. Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated more realistically at higher resolution in winter, spring, and autumn, and robustly so across the model ensemble. The improvement in spring is larger than that in winter and autumn. Summer blocking is found to be better simulated at higher resolution by one model only, with little change seen in the other three models. The representation of Pacific blocking is not found to systematically depend on resolution. Despite the improvements seen with resolution, the 25-km models still exhibit large biases in Euro-Atlantic blocking. For example, three of the four 25-km models underestimate winter northern European blocking frequency by about one-third. The resolution sensitivity and biases in the simulated blocking are shown to be in part associated with the mean-state biases in the models’ midlatitude circulation.

Arctic-Mid-Latitude Linkages in a Nonlinear Quasi-Geostrophic Atmospheric Model

A quasi-geostrophic three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been applied to investigate the impact of Arctic amplification (increase in surface air temperatures and loss of Arctic sea ice during the last 15 years) on the mid-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation. The model demonstrates a mid-latitude response to an Arctic diabatic heating anomaly. A clear shift towards a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO−) during low sea-ice-cover conditions occurs, connected with weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the Atlantic and colder winters over Northern Eurasia. Compared to reanalysis data, there is no clear model response with respect to the Pacific Ocean and North America.

Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate

A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and parameterizations, which could lead to misleading conclusions elsewhere if a multi-model ensemble-mean approach is adopted. It might also represent an important source of uncertainty in climate prediction and projection. Modelling efforts are hence further required to improve representation of the background atmospheric circulation and reduce biases, in order to attain more accurate covariability.

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June–September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basin have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.