Microsimulation Method Research Articles

One Against All: A Broadly Influenza Neutralizing Man-made Monoclonal Antibody Passes Phase I

One Against All: A Broadly Influenza Neutralizing Man-made Monoclonal Antibody Passes Phase I

Analyzing Public Transportation for the Effects of Individual Characteristics on Mode Choice with Multi Agent Simulation

The movements of modes of transport in network can be analyzed with micro-simulation method. As the development of computers the micro-simulation methods such as multi-agent systems become more popular in transportation analysis. In this study, the problem of individual and trip characteristics on the mode choice are effective or not, is solved. Network, facilities, daily travel plans and transport vehicles were accepted as an agent. Considering parameters that will be effective in mode choice, how transportation road network is distributed spatially, how the personal and trip characteristics of trip makers effects on mode choice spatially were analyzed in study area. As a result of this study, personnel and trip characteristics of trip makers are affected on different transportation mode.

The impact of bus priority policies on peak commuters behavior: An agent-based modelling perspective

By using micro-simulation method and the BushCMosteller reinforcement learning model, this paper modeled the behavior of urban commuters departure time choice on a many-to-one transit system during the morning peak-period. Three kinds of typical urban public transport priority policies were studied. Result shows that if we can choose the right time for free public transportation, the pre-peak-free policy will have certain effects on staggering the commuting peak by influencing commuters decision making on departure-time. As for the bus-accelerating policy, it can lower commuters cost, but it is likely to cause more congested volume and add more pressure on the public transit system. The departure frequency increasing policy can partially alleviate the peak congestion problem, but cannot fundamentally eliminate the congestion, instead, it may increase the operating costs. This research is helpful in acquiring a better understanding of commuters departure time choice and commuting equilibrium during the peak period. The research approaches also provide an effective way to explore the formation and evolution of complicated traffic phenomena.

Deductibility of Provisions under the CCCTB Proposal and Its Effects on Companies: The Case of Poland

The aim of the paper is to empirically examine the scale and the distribution of the tax advantage which emerges when provisions for future liabilities are deductible from taxable earnings, as proposed in the CCCTB concept. The paper concentrates on Poland - a country for which the expected economic effects of this proposal are still controversial and ambiguous. The results are also relevant for other European countries in which provisions are currently treated in a different way for financial and for tax accounting purposes. The analysis is based on the information from financial statements of 250 companies from the period 2007 - 2012. The microsimulation method in a multi-period setting is implemented. The results show that in case provisions are deductible for tax purposes the tax due decreases by 5,6 % or and by 9,8 % on average, depending on the liquidity situation of companies. The tax advantage is distributed differently among companies. The majority of taxpayers is expected to gain from the reform. Only for single companies there is an increase in tax, induced by the existing, restricted tax loss carry forward rules. The median change in CIT amounts to -1 % and -2 %.

Additive Effects of Road Intersection-Specific Volume-delay Functions

Describing the relationship between vehicle volume and travel time delay on road sections consisting multiple intersections in the context of junction quantity is favorable to extend the advantage of intersection-specific volume-delay functions. This paper demonstrates a microsimulation method combined with a non-linear function fitting algorithm to determine unbiased delay function parameters and inspect the eect of junction number on time delays. Results are bifold: first the distance between intersections deemed irrelevant regarding delay function shape, second the implicit scaling property of homogenous junction chains is revealed. Consequently the definition of time delay on uniform intersection chains can be determined by a sole parameter set for the volume-delay function and the addition of a single scaling variable.

Intensive margins, extensive margins, and spousal allowances in the Japanese system of personal income taxes: A discrete choice analysis

This study explores the effects of spousal allowances (SAs) in the Japanese system of personal income taxes, using the micro-simulation method based on the discrete choice model of labor supply. Our simulations show that the complete abolishment of SAs would increase the average annual working hours of all wives by 1.6% only, which is smaller than previous findings in the Japanese literature. If we focus on households benefiting from SAs, the rate of increase in the wife’s working hours is even smaller (.1%). In addition, one particular case of SA reduction leads to a decrease in the labor supply of wives. We argue that these unexpected results are due to our explicit consideration of the fixed cost of labor market participations, which has been previously ignored in the Japanese studies.

Micro Simulation of the Elderly Population's Effect on Iran's Pedestrian's Walking Flow

Since 1996 to 2006, Iran‟s population structure experienced considerable changes. During the mentioned period, the share of the population under 15 decreased from 39.6% to 28%. Considering this decrease, Iran‟s population was quickly guided to oldness which will have irreversible social and economical repercussions on the country‟s future progress. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the elderly on the moving stream of the other pedestrians in Iran‟s sidewalks, which is done for the first time in Iran using the Micro-Simulation method. The Micro-Simulation model of pedestrians is a computerized simulation procedure in which the moving behavior of each pedestrian such as speed, path, and the direction is considered separately. According to the obtained results from this study, an increase in the percentage of the elderly population can lower the sidewalk's level of service. Also, the decrease of the average motion speed and the free walking space for wider paths is not necessarily less than that of narrow paths; in a way that by increasing the width of a sidewalk, pedestrians‟ total average speed and the average walking space decrease up to a specific width and then, start to increase. This decrease in wider sidewalks is more than that in more narrow ones.

Educational and sex differentials in life expectancies and disability-free life expectancies in São Paulo, Brazil, and urban areas in Mexico.

To estimate transition probabilities between disability states, total life expectancy, and the latter's decomposition into years spent disabled and disability-free by age, sex, and education among older adults in São Paulo, Brazil, and urban areas in Mexico. Applied a micro-simulation method (Interpolative Markov Chains) using longitudinal data. We found large between-country educational differences in incidence of and recovery from disability with higher rates in Mexico than in São Paulo, but no differences in mortality. Older adults in Mexico spent longer time being disability-free than in São Paulo for both levels of education. Males and females in São Paulo spent a larger fraction of their remaining life disabled at every age than their counterparts in urban areas in Mexico. There were educational differences in the prevalence of disability in São Paulo and urban areas in Mexico, and significant educational differences in disability incidence and recovery across sites.

Smart Roadside System for Driver Assistance and Safety Warnings: Framework and Applications

The use of newly emerging sensor technologies in traditional roadway systems can provide real-time traffic services to drivers through Telematics and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITSs). This paper introduces a smart roadside system that utilizes various sensors for driver assistance and traffic safety warnings. This paper shows two road application models for a smart roadside system and sensors: a red-light violation warning system for signalized intersections, and a speed advisory system for highways. Evaluation results for the two services are then shown using a micro-simulation method. In the given real-time applications for drivers, the framework and certain algorithms produce a very efficient solution with respect to the roadway type features and sensor type use.

Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation method

Public mental health surveillance data are rarely available at a fine geographic scale. This study applies a spatial microsimulation procedure to generate small-area (lower super outputs areas [LSOA]) estimates of psychological distress and alcohol consumption. The validity of LSOA estimates and their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions are examined. A deterministic reweighting methodology assigns prevalence estimates for psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption through a process of matching individuals from a large, population-representative dataset (Health Survey for England) to known LSOA populations (from the 2001 population Census). 'goodness-of-fit' of LSOA estimates is assessed by their comparison to observed prevalence of these health indicators at higher levels of aggregation (local authority districts [LAD]). Population prevalence estimates are correlated to the mental health needs index (MINI) and other health indicators; ordered logistic regression is applied to investigate their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions. Performance of microsimulation models is high with no more than 10% errors in at least 90% of LAD for psychological distress and moderate and heavy alcohol consumption. The MINI is strongly correlated with psychological distress (r = 0.910; p value < 0.001) and moderately with heavy drinking (r = 0.389; p value < 0.001). Psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption are differently associated with socioeconomic and rurality indicators at the LSOA level. Associations further vary at the LAD level and regional variations are apparent. Spatial microsimulation may be an appropriate methodological approach for replicating social and demographic health patterns at the local level.

Measuring and decomposing socioeconomic inequality in healthcare delivery: A microsimulation approach with application to the Palestinian conflict-affected fragile setting

Socioeconomic-related inequalities in healthcare delivery have been extensively studied in developed countries, using standard linear models of decomposition. This paper seeks to assess equity in healthcare delivery in the particular context of the occupied Palestinian territory: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, using a new method of decomposition based on microsimulations. Besides avoiding the 'unavoidable price' of linearity restriction that is imposed by the standard methods of decomposition, the microsimulation-based decomposition enables to circumvent the potentially contentious role of heterogeneity in behaviours and to better disentangle the various sources driving inequality in healthcare utilisation. Results suggest that the worse-off do have a disproportinately greater need for all levels of care. However with the exception of primary-level, utilisation of all levels of care appears to be significantly higher for the better-off. The microsimulation method has made it possible to identify the contributions of factors driving such pro-rich patterns. While much of the inequality in utilisation appears to be caused by the prevailing socioeconomic inequalities, detailed analysis attributes a non-trivial part (circa 30% of inequalities) to heterogeneity in healthcare-seeking behaviours across socioeconomic groups of the population. Several policy recommendations for improving equity in healthcare delivery in the occupied Palestinian territory are proposed.

Developing an Interactive Microsimulation Method in Pharmacology

Pharmacology decision making requires clinical judgment. The authors created interactive microsimulation applying drug information to varying patients' situations. The theory-based microsimulation requires situational analysis for each scenario. The microsimulation uses an interactive format that allows the participant to navigate through three separate virtual clients' situations. Correct clinical decisions are rewarded by sounds and by video footage of the patient improving. Conversely, incorrect choices show video footage of the patient decompensating. This micro-simulation was developed to help students learn from the consequences of incorrect medication decision making in the virtual world without harming patients. The feedback of watching an incorrect decision on a patient helps students associate cause and effect on patient outcomes. The microsimulation reinforces the ease with which medication errors can occur and the extent of possible sequalae. The development process used to incorporate the technology in the nursing curriculum is discussed.

Pushing it to the edge: Extending generalised regression as a spatial microsimulation method

This paper extends a spatial microsimulation model to test how the model behaves after adding different constraints, and how results using univariate constraint tables rather than multivariate constraint tables compare. This paper also tests how well non-Capital city households from a survey can estimate areas within capital cities. Using all households available in Australian survey means that the spatial microsimulation method has more households to choose from to represent the constraints in the area being estimated. In theory, this should improve the fit of the model. However, a household from another area may not be representative of households in the area being estimated. We found that, in the case that the estimated statistics is already closely related to the benchmarks used, adding a number of benchmarks had little effect on the number of areas where estimates couldnt be made, and had little effect on the accuracy of our estimates in areas where estimates could be made. However, the advantage of using more benchmarks was that the weights can be used to estimate a wider variety of outcome variables. We also found that more complex bi-variate benchmarks gave better results compared to simpler univariate benchmarks; and that using a specific sub-sample of observations from a survey gave better results in smaller capital cities in Australia (Adelaide and Perth).

Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing

In this paper we evaluate the respective effects of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on growth in health care expenditures. We use microdata, i.e. representative samples of 3441 and 5003 French individuals observed in 1992 and 2000. Our data provide detailed information about morbidity and allow us to observe three components of expenditures: ambulatory care, pharmaceutical and hospital expenditures. We propose an original microsimulation method to identify the components of the drift observed between 1992 and 2000 in the health expenditure age profile. On the one hand, we find empirical evidence of health improvement at a given age: changes in morbidity induce a downward drift of the profile. On the other hand, the drift due to changes in practices is upward and sizeable. Detailed analysis attributes most of this drift to technological innovation. After applying our results at the macroeconomic level, we find that the rise in health care expenditures due to ageing is relatively small. The impact of changes in practices is 3.8 times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more than offset the increase in spending due to population ageing.

Using Microscopic Simulation to Evaluate Potential Intelligent Transportation System Strategies Under Nonrecurrent Congestion

A microsimulation method is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of potential intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies under nonrecurrent congestion. The evaluated ITS strategies include incident management, adaptive ramp metering, traveler information systems, arterial management, and a combination of those strategies. These strategies are implemented and evaluated over a road network in Irvine, California, with the microsimulation model PARAMICS. The evaluation results show that all ITS strategies have positive effects on network performance. Because of the network topology (one major freeway with two parallel arterial streets), real-time traveler information has the greatest benefits among all single ITS strategies. However, a combination of ITS strategies can further increase benefits.

Forecasting State Income Tax Collections: A New Approach

This paper reports on an application of the microsimulation method to the estimation of income tax collections for the State of North Carolina. Detailed forecasts of Income distribution make it Possible to model the law in nearly complete detail. The model provides quarterly forecasts of collections disaggregated by withheld taxes, declarations payments, final payments, and refunds.