Agricultural plastic film (APF) is widely used in modern agriculture. Under natural environmental conditions, the structure, surface properties and mechanical properties of APFs change because of sunlight, wind and other factors and gradually break into debris, resulting in the generation of microplastics (MPs). Studies have reported that the MPs concentration in soil is positively correlated with the use intensity and duration of APFs. Unfortunately, to the best of our knowledge, no method to measure the emissions of in situ APFs has been developed. In this study, the effects of mechanical abrasion driven by wind on MPs fragmentation by polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) APFs with the increase of exposure time were investigated. Meanwhile, based on the release rate model of PS fragmented MPs under natural sunlight, a modified model to quantify the effect of ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure duration on the production of APF fragmented MPs was developed. Based on these models, the amount of MPs produced from APFs in farmland in China was estimated. The national annual MPs mass emissions from APFs in agricultural soil were approximately 5 × 104 to 6.8 × 104 tons in 2018 due to wind and 6.5 × 103 tons due to sunlight, and the total emission level due to both wind and sunlight was 5.1 × 104 to 7.0 × 104 tons. Compared with that of wind, the contribution of UV radiation to MPs emission is smaller. Our estimates are comparable to data reported in previous studies, indicating that our models have good practical applications and are of great significance for predicting MPs production from APFs in farmland.