Michigan Region Research Articles

Evaluation of WRF-Chem air quality forecasts during the AEROMMA and STAQS 2023 field campaigns

ABSTRACT A real-time air quality forecasting system was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to provide support for flight planning activities during the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) and NASA Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) 2023 field campaigns. The forecasting system operated on two separate domains centered on Chicago, IL, and New York City, NY, and provided 72-hour predictions of atmospheric composition, aerosols, and clouds. This study evaluates the Chicago-centered forecasting system’s 1-, 2-, and 3-day ozone (O3) forecast skill for Chiwaukee Prairie, WI, a rural area downwind of Chicago that often experiences high levels of O3 pollution. Comparisons to vertical O3 profiles collected by a Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) instrument revealed that forecast skill decreases as forecast lead time increases. When compared to surface measurements, the forecasting system tended to underestimate O3 concentrations on high O3 days and overestimate on low O3 days at Chiwaukee Prairie regardless of forecast lead time. Using July 25, 2023, as a case study, analyses show that the forecasts underestimated peak O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie during this regionwide bad air quality day. Wind speed and direction data indicates that this underestimation can partially be attributed to lake breeze simulation errors. Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and back trajectories from the NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model show that transported Canadian wildfire smoke impacted the Lake Michigan region on this day. Errors in the forecasted chemical composition and transport of the smoke plumes also contributed to underpredictions of O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie on July 25, 2023. The results of this work help identify improvements that can be made for future iterations of the WRF-Chem forecasting system. Implications: Air quality forecasting is an important tool that can be used to inform the public about upcoming high pollution days so that individuals may plan accordingly to limit their exposure to health-damaging air pollutants. Forecasting also helps scientists make decisions about where to make observations during air quality field campaigns. A variety of observational datasets were used to evaluate the accuracy of an air quality forecasting system that was developed for NOAA and NASA field campaigns that occurred in the summer of 2023. These evaluations inform areas of improvement for future development of this air quality forecasting system.

A Regional Analysis of the Impacts of Changes in Housing Values on Property Tax Assessment During and After the 2008 Financial Crisis

This study examines the relationship between changing house prices and assessed value in the Detroit Michigan region. Using parcel-level data from 2008 through 2016, we construct a Hedonic Housing Price Index and an Assessed Value Index for 120 Michigan assessing jurisdictions in the five-county region surrounding Detroit (Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Washtenaw, and Wayne). Our findings are consistent with the literature, indicating at least a three-year lag between changes in house prices and changes in property assessments. Communities considered to be distressed tended to over-assess properties before the crisis, but these communities recalibrated assessments to better align with market conditions after the financial crisis. Our evaluation also shows that while assessed values decreased more slowly than housing prices fell during the crisis, assessed values tended to fall to even deeper levels than housing prices over a longer time horizon. JEL Codes: H71, H83, G01

Porous asphalt mixture performance in cold regions: Case study of Chicago

Porous Asphalt Mixtures (PAMs) improve resilience of flexible pavements in the context of climate change. PAM application in coastal cities like Chicago is of interest; however severe winters compromise the durability of PAMs given their susceptibility to freeze-thaw. This work aimed to evaluate the to-date experience with PAMs in Chicago, exploring benefits and limitations to be considered for future projects in the Southern Lake Michigan region. Full-depth PAM cores were obtained from seven sections, constructed in different years. Tests were conducted to assess the evolution of surface texture, internal structure, and multi-scale material properties. Regarding surface texture, consistent change over time was observed, such as loss of the “channel” structure, and increase in mean profile parameters because of raveling. Also, binder content varies with time within different layer depths. An aging gradient in terms of stiffness from top to bottom within the layer does not necessarily occur. However, binder ductility shows drastic and consistent reduction throughout the layer as aging increases. Analysis of internal structure using a CT scan revealed that there is also a lack of homogeneity in the air void and particle size distributions. Finally, this study suggests that full-depth PAM viscoelastic behavior is sensitive to saturation level, and this is a relevant subject to be considered, since partial saturation may be a condition often observed in the field.

213 Accelerating Translational Science Through Dissemination Grants with Community Impact

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Promoting Academics and Community Engagement (PACE) Dissemination grants are funding opportunities via the Michigan Institute for Clinical and Health Research Community Engagement program designed to support the science of clinical and translational research demonstrating community impact. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Two statewide funding announcements over a 3-month period were issued to over 2,000 academic and community partners. Proposals were required to meet the following criteria: 1) data collection from an academic and community partnered research project completed; 2) research findings analyzed; and 3) a community-focused dissemination plan developed. Projects were funded up to $5000. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Six PACE dissemination grants with community-focused plans were funded spanning Southeast, Western, and the Upper Peninsula regions of Michigan, as well as statewide. Examples of funded projects topics areas include the following: firearm safety; housing discrimination; opioid misuse; suicide prevention; and youth mental health. Community dissemination activities include: a) presenting at a community town hall; b) writing a pamphlet for community use; c) creating artwork installation showcase for community display; d) storytelling through community channels; and e) designing and implementing a local social media campaign. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Traditional funding mechanisms often do not provide resources to disseminate research findings with community benefit or impact back to communities. Funding dissemination awards through the PACE mechanism directly supports and accelerates translational science by sharing results directly back to the community in meaningful ways.

Berries without Bugs: Recreational Foraging and a Fruit Fly Threat in Rural Michigan

Recreational foraging is an important cultural activity in the rural region of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. During the summer of 2019, an exploratory survey was conducted of foragers in the Keweenaw Peninsula area of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to identify local knowledge of berries and a new invasive fruit fly, spotted wing drosophila (SWD, Drosophila suzukii). SWD infests fruit before it is harvested, hastening ripening and potentially causing the fruit to spoil more quickly than might be expected. Research studying recreational foraging in the US has primarily focused on the study of urban areas. In addition, research studying SWD???s impact on berry production has largely focused on commercial cultivation rather than foraged harvesting in mixed woodlands. The majority of our respondents began picking berries in their youth and have continued throughout their life, emphasizing the importance of berry foraging within the local culture. Furthermore, many of the respondents confirmed that they pick berries as a cost-saving way to obtain healthy food, which could negatively be impacted by the fruits spoiling more quickly. In conclusion, most respondents were unfamiliar with SWD. Our findings suggest additional research studying the cultural and economic impacts of SWD is needed to inform adaptive foraging practices and SWD infestation prevention.

IMPLEMENTING AN AREA AGENCY ON AGING COMMUNITY CARE TRANSITION INITIATIVE: FACILITATORS AND BARRIERS

Abstract The Michigan Region VII Area Agency on Aging (AAA) implemented a Community Care Transition Initiative (CCTI) for rural hospitalized older adults at high risk for readmission. After discharge home, AAA CCTI participants received a home visit by an AAA-trained pharmacy technician community health worker (CHW), a telehealth AAA pharmacist medication review, assessments by the CHW and pharmacist, education, primary care follow-up coaching, and referrals. As part of a program evaluation, we conducted six interviews with AAA key informants (e.g., pharmacist, director, CHWs). A semi-structured interview guide was piloted and revised to assess implementation, processes, impact, and future directions. Interviews were conducted via Zoom, recorded, transcribed, and checked for accuracy. Thematic analysis was used to identify implementation facilitators, barriers, and areas for program refinement. Three researchers coded the transcripts, developed a codebook, and resolved discrepancies by consensus. NVivo 14® was used for data management and analysis. Barriers to AAA CCTI implementation included unknowns at project start and need for procedures, anxiety about entering a client’s house, client’s lack of familiarity with technology, lack of perceived pharmacist benefit, limited personnel, and billing or financial reimbursement. Facilitators identified were the AAA’s reputation and backing, relationships built between healthcare providers, referral processes (e.g., community mental health), and pharmacist telehealth visit efficiency. Program refinements included shortened follow-up time and tailored visits to different client situations and needs. The results provide insights into the design of implementation strategies to disseminate the AAA CCTI to meet rural older adults’ health and social needs after hospitalization.

Understanding the burden of colorectal cancer in a three-county rural region of Michigan: an ecological analysis of incidence, mortality, and risk factors.

Our aim was to identify whether known colorectal cancer (CRC) risk factors contribute to the high CRC burden in Michigan's Thumb region, a 3-county agricultural rural area in eastern Michigan. We examined county-level invasive CRC incidence and mortality rates (2000-2017) from the Michigan Cancer Surveillance Program and county-level data on CRC risk factors from publicly available datasets. Prevalence of CRC risk factors in the Thumb region were compared to Michigan's other rural and urban regions using ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) tests. Multivariable linear regression models with stepwise selection were used to assess whether living in the Thumb region was associated with increased CRC incidence, mortality, and late-stage diagnoses after accounting for other risk factors. Living in the Thumb region (β = 10.4, p = 0.0003), obesity (β = 36.9, p = 0.04), and an unhealthy food environment (β = -2.7, p = 0.003) were associated with higher CRC incidence. Smoking (β = 67.3, p < 0.0001), being uninsured (β = -29.9%, p = 0.03), living in the Thumb region (β = 2.47, p = 0.03), lower colonoscopy screening (β = -0.14, p = 0.01), and older age (β = 0.11, p = 0.006) were associated with higher CRC mortality. The percent of late-staged CRC diagnoses was significantly lower in the Thumb region than other rural and urban areas of the state (52.9%, 58.3%, and 54.6%, respectively, p = 0.03). Findings suggest that living in Michigan's Thumb region is associated with higher CRC incidence and mortality compared to Michigan's other rural and urban regions, even after controlling for known risk factors. More studies on individual-level demographic, environmental, tumor, and treatment characteristics (e.g., treatment differences, water quality, pesticide use) are needed to further characterize these findings.

Quagga mussels continue offshore expansion in Lake Michigan, but slow in Lake Huron

The impacts of invasive dreissenid mussels on the Great Lakes ecosystem strongly depend on their biomass, distribution, and population trajectories. In order to assess recent population trends of dreissenids in the upper Great Lakes we conducted extensive ponar and benthic imaging system (BIS) surveys throughout Lake Michigan (including Green Bay), and the US portion of Lake Huron in 2018 and 2019. We used the two survey methods to quantify the biomass, density, size-frequency distributions, and small-scale spatial arrangement patterns of Dreissena spp. We show that dreissenid populations are continuing their expansion into deeper, offshore regions of Lakes Michigan since the most recent surveys conducted in 2015. In Lake Michigan, average areal biomass of Dreissena spp. was 25.4 g shell free dry mass (SFDM)/m2 with maximum biomass occurring between 81 and 100 m (76.1 g SFDM m2 ± 49.2). Average areal biomass was lower in US Lake Huron (20.7 g SFDM/m2) with peak biomass between 51 and 75 m (21.5 g SFDM m2 ± 58.9 SD). Size-frequency distribution data shows that recruitment is occurring in the deepest portions of both lakes, and suggests that the expansion of dreissenids to deep waters of the upper Great Lakes is likely to continue. We show good agreement between ponar and BIS data and join others in recommending regularly supplementing ponar sampling with BIS methods in dreissenids surveys to increase survey speed and collect novel types of data about mussel populations.

Utilizing data to foster equity in infection prevention outreach among skilled nursing facilities in Michigan

Background: Since October 2020, the Infection Prevention Resource and Assessment Team (IPRAT) has provided infection prevention guidance and support to congregate-care settings throughout Michigan. Specifically, outreach to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) in response to reported positive COVID-19 resident and staff cases. Case rates provide limited data and do not factor in additional variables, such as staffing shortages, geographical location, or access to supplies, which can increase the vulnerability of staff and residents to outbreaks. To facilitate equitable outreach, a risk assessment was developed using variables related to infection prevention and poor COVID-19 outcomes utilizing local, state, and federal data reporting websites. Methods: A retrospective data review of IPRAT’s electronic data repository was performed, and 2 distinct periods were identified between November 6, 2020, and December 5, 2022. Outreach method 1 involved only using case counts from November 6, 2020, to September 24, 2021. Outreach method 2 (new risk-assessment–based outreach) involved additional data points from April 12, 2021, to December 5, 2022. Data included 17 self-reported items from the NHSN, 3 characteristics regarding facilities’ COVID-19 units, and 7 community-level variables derived from county vaccine rates, social vulnerability index (SVI), and COVID-19 community transmission level. The scoring of each data point ranged from 0–10, and outreach was prioritized to facilities with the highest overall scores. Successful referrals (resulting in a site visit) were compared to the SVI and healthcare emergency regional maps to determine whether the new outreach method reached more facilities in vulnerable communities. Results: Of 358 outreach attempts, IPRAT had a higher success rate with method 2 (6.9%) compared to method 1 (5.3%) and improved outreach in rural Michigan regions 7 and 8 (15% vs 3%). Site visits in counties with a high SVI rating with method 2 were 14.5% versus 10.6% using method 1. COVID-19 prevention referral success rates were higher (4.4% vs 3.1%) using method 2. Conclusions: The risk-assessment–based outreach method showed improvement in overall referral success rates among facilities in rural and higher-SVI counties. These communities tend to experience higher health disparities and poorer health outcomes. Incorporating the more nuanced data variables correlated with at-risk congregate-care settings receiving timelier outreach. The limitations of the study include sample size, period of data collected (2 years), and the complexity of objectively measuring equity.Disclosures: None

Conservation Genetic Analysis of Blanding’s Turtles across Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan

The Blanding’s Turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) is a species in need of conservation across much of its geographic range. A key aspect to conserving a species is understanding the genetic diversity and population structure across the landscape. Several researchers have focused on E. blandingii genetic diversity in the northeastern United States, Canada, and parts of the Midwestern United States; however, little investigation has been carried out on localities within the Great Lakes region of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Understanding genetic trends within this region will assist with conservation planning by documenting levels of genetic variation within and among localities and developing hypotheses that have led to the observed patterns. We used 14 microsatellite loci to characterize the genetic diversity of E. blandingii in 16 localities in Indiana, Ohio, and southeast Michigan (with one northwestern locality). Overall, genetic diversity within localities tended to be high and little differentiation was observed among sample localities. No consistent evidence of bottlenecks was detected, and effective population size (Ne) estimates were generally high, but likely biased by sample size. A minimum of two clusters, and as many as seven clusters in a hierarchical analysis, were identified using three methods for grouping individuals (STRUCTURE, TESS3r, and sPCA). A correlation between geographic distance and genetic differentiation (isolation by distance) was observed. The long lifespan and historic gene flow of E. blandingii is likely responsible for the observed genetic diversity and lack of differentiation between localities. This should not suggest that populations are secure in the Great Lakes Region. Modeling aimed at estimating future genetic variation in populations under realistic demographic scenarios indicates that many localities in the region are likely to be vulnerable to genetic loss in the next 200 years.

Impact of an Area Agency on Aging pharmacist-led Community Care Transition Initiative

BackgroundRural older adults are at risk of readmissions and medication-related problems after hospital discharge. ObjectivesThis study aimed to compare 30-day hospital readmissions between participants and nonparticipants and describe medication therapy problems (MTPs) and barriers to care, self-management, and social needs among participants. Practice descriptionThe Michigan Region VII Area Agency on Aging (AAA) Community Care Transition Initiative (CCTI) for rural older adults after hospitalization. Practice innovationEligible AAA CCTI participants were identified by an AAA community health worker (CHW) trained as a pharmacy technician. Eligibility criteria were Medicare insurance; diagnoses at risk of readmission; length of stay, acuity of admission, comorbidities, and emergency department visits score more than 4; and discharge to home from January 2018 to December 2019. The AAA CCTI included a CHW home visit, telehealth pharmacist comprehensive medication review (CMR), and follow-up for up to 1 year. Evaluation methodsA retrospective cohort study examined the primary outcomes of 30-day hospital readmissions and MTPs, categorized by the Pharmacy Quality Alliance MTP Framework. Primary care provider (PCP) visit completion, barriers to self-management, health, and social needs were collected. Descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U, and chi-square analyses were used. ResultsOf 825 eligible discharges, 477 (57.8%) enrolled in the AAA CCTI; differences in 30-day readmissions between participants and nonparticipants were not statistically significant (11.5% vs. 16.1%, P = 0.07). More than one-third of participants (34.6%) completed their PCP visit within 7 days. MTPs were identified in 76.1% of the pharmacist visits (mean MTP 2.1 [SD 1.4]). Adherence (38.2%) and safety-related (32.0%) MTPs were common. Physical health and financial issues were barriers to self-management. ConclusionAAA CCTI participants did not have lower hospital readmission rates. The AAA CCTI identified and addressed barriers to self-management and MTPs in participants after the care transition home. Community-based, patient-centered strategies to improve medication use and meet rural adults’ health and social needs after care transitions are warranted.

Simulation of Neighborhood‐Scale Air Quality With Two‐Way Coupled WRF‐CMAQ Over Southern Lake Michigan‐Chicago Region

AbstractThe southern Lake Michigan region of the United States, home to Chicago, Milwaukee, and other densely populated Midwestern cities, frequently experiences high pollutant episodes with unevenly distributed exposure and health burdens. Using the two‐way coupled Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (WRF‐CMAQ), we investigate criteria pollutants over a southern Lake Michigan domain using 1.3 and 4 km resolution hindcast simulations. We assess WRF‐CMAQ's performance using data from the National Climatic Data Center and Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System. Our 1.3 km simulation slightly improves on the 4 km simulation's meteorological and chemical performance while also resolving key details in areas of high exposure and impact, that is, urban environments. At 1.3 km, we find that most air quality‐relevant meteorological components of WRF‐CMAQ perform at or above community benchmarks. WRF‐CMAQ's chemical performance also largely meets community standards, with substantial nuance depending on the performance metric and component assessed. For example, hourly simulated NO2 and O3 are highly correlated with observations (r &gt; 0.6) while PM2.5 is less so (r = 0.4). Similarly, hourly simulated NO2 and PM2.5 have low biases (&lt;10%), whereas O3 biases are larger (&gt;30%). Simulated spatial pollutant patterns show distinct urban‐rural footprints, with urban NO2 and PM2.5 20%–60% higher than rural, and urban O3 6% lower. We use our 1.3 km simulations to resolve high‐pollution areas within individual urban neighborhoods and characterize seasonal changes in O3 regimes across tight spatial gradients. Our findings demonstrate both the benefits and limitations of high‐resolution simulations, particularly over urban settings.

Metabolomic Markers of the Relationship Between Sugar-sweetened Beverage Intake and Metabolic Risk in Mexican Adolescents (P08-132-19)

ObjectivesTo identify metabolites that mark the relationship of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake with adiposity and metabolic risk among boys (n = 114) and girls (n = 128) 8–14 years of age. MethodsFirst, we used linear regression to examine associations of quartiles of SSB intake with adiposity, glycemia, lipid profile, and blood pressure (BP). Next, we used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), a multivariate dimension reduction technique, regression to identify SSB-associated metabolites from a dataset of 938 compounds assayed on an untargeted platform. Finally, we investigated whether the SSB-associated metabolites are also associated with adiposity and metabolic risk. We conducted analyses separately for boys and girls, and accounted for age and pubertal status in all models. ResultsMedian frequency of SSB intake in this population was 2–4 times per week, with the majority of children consuming sweetened fruit juice or sugar water. In girls, higher SSB intake corresponded with marginally higher BP (Q4 vs. Q1 SSB intake: β = 4.65, 95% CI: −0.22, 9.53 mmHg SBP, P-trend = 0.07). In boys, SSB intake was associated with higher C-peptide (Q4 vs. Q1 SSB intake: β = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.16, 1.27 ng/mL; P-trend = 0.04), C-peptide based insulin resistance (Q4 vs. Q1 SSB intake: β = 0.17, 95 CI: 0.04, 0.30 ng/mL; P-trend = 0.03), and leptin (Q4 vs. Q1 SSB intake: β = 3.78, 95% CI: 0.49, 7.08 ng/mL; P-trend = 0.02). We identified 6 named metabolites in girls (5-methyl-tetrohydroflouride (5-THF), phenylephrine, urate, nonanoate, deoxyuridine, and sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) and 3 named metabolites in boys (2-piperidinone, octanoylcarnitine, catechol) correlated with SSB intake. In girls, urate and nonanoate marked the relationship of SSB intake with blood pressure ConclusionsUrate and nonanoate may mark the association of SSB intake with higher BP in peripubertal girls. Future prospective studies are required to confirm our findings. Funding SourcesP01ES022844 from the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS); RD83543601 from the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Michigan Nutrition Obesity Research Center (P30 DK089503) and Michigan Regional Comprehensive Metabolomics Resource Core (R24 DK097153); the Robert C. and Veronica Atkins Foundation.

The Impact of Volatile Chemical Products, Other VOCs, and NOx on Peak Ozone in the Lake Michigan Region

AbstractHigh concentrations of ozone along the coastline of Lake Michigan are a persistent air quality management challenge. Complementing observations during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS 2017), WRF‐Chem modeling was used to quantify sensitivity of modeled ozone (O3) to anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, including to changes in volatile chemical product (VCP). The daily maximum 8 hr average (MDA8) over the high ozone region of Lake Michigan decreased by 2.7 ppb with exclusion of VCP from the inventory, and was sensitive to both NOx and VOC changes, with greater sensitivity to NOx. Close to urban centers, MDA8 ozone was VOC‐sensitive. Clusters of coastal receptor sites were identified based on similarity in response to emission perturbations, with most clusters being NOx‐sensitive and NOx‐sensitivity increasing with distance from major emission sources. The 2 June 2017 ozone event, which has received considerable focus, is shown to be atypical due to unusually strong and spatially extended VOC‐sensitive behavior. WRF‐Chem integrated reaction rate analysis was used to compute radical termination rates due to NOx (LNOx) and to radical‐radical reactions (LROx). LROx/LNOx and formaldehyde to NO2 ratio (FNR) were shown to be predictive of modeled MDA8 ozone sensitivity, but with variation in predictive power as a function of time of day, which has implications for air quality management use of FNR from geostationary satellites.

Photochemical model representation of ozone and precursors during the 2017 Lake Michigan ozone study (LMOS)

Several areas in the Lake Michigan region are violating the human health-based ozone (O3) National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Land-water meteorology driven build-up of precursor pollutants (NOX and VOC) from mobile and stationary sources undergo photochemical O3 production and result in seasonal high O3 episodes during the spring and summertime. Routine and specialized surface measurements coupled with airborne and remotely sensed measurements from the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS) provide an opportunity to evaluate photochemical grid model representation of these processes. The Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) was applied at a 4-km grid resolution for the Lake Michigan region and compared against routine and field study measurements to determine how well the modeling system captures emissions, meteorology, and chemical production during O3 episodes.The model captured day to day and diurnal variability in observed O3 along Lake Michigan but often missed peak O3. Surface level NO2 was generally well characterized, but the model seemed to be missing a significant source of VOC, likely both regional and local (not necessarily the same source sector) based on model sensitivities. On June 2, 2017, the model captured the timing of the lake to land breeze but underestimated near-surface wind speed which coincided with peak O3. The underestimation of surface O3 north of Chicago at Zion, Illinois, on this afternoon may be related to over-water vertical mixing, the modeled lake breeze being too weak to transport ozone and precursors back onshore, regional and aloft underprediction of O3, or some combination of each of these factors. Despite underpredictions of peak O3 at some monitors on certain days, the modeling system is useful for developing control scenarios for this region. Model-predicted O3 sensitivity to precursors matched other assessments and suggests both NOX and VOC anthropogenic emissions are important to reduce O3 in the Chicago area.

Emergent regional collaborative governance in rural local food systems development

ABSTRACT This research analyzes the emergent collaborative governance of local food systems (LFS) development in a six-county region of Michigan’s Western Upper Peninsula, a post-industrial mining region with a long history of local food provisioning. We contribute to scholarship on rural food systems by framing LFS development as a social good, benefiting placemaking and long-term economic development. We use a community-based research case study and policy analysis to identify policy-related gaps, including LFS’ low legitimacy, goal divergence among different jurisdictions, and lack of regional leadership. LFS development may present ways for rural communities to foster placemaking and economic development; however, we find that LFS are less visible and not always on the policy agenda of local governments. In this study, collaborations among grassroots actors and organizations outside of local government are leading LFS development. We conclude that collaborative governance may have a better chance to succeed when LFS have a clear public identity and legitimacy as a social good, partners reach goal consensus, and appropriate leaderships are formed.

Machine Learning Methods to Analyze and Predict Crash Injury Severity Based on Contributing Factors for Southeast Michigan

Traffic safety is a critical aspect of transportation. Transportation agencies and researchers have been continuously making an effort to ensure minimal error margins in the road system. There is a growing interest in the Southeast Michigan region because of the active role of original equipment manufacturers in spurring research in the new mobility field and autonomous vehicle technology. As new jobs are created and commuting trips increase, traffic safety becomes even more important. Thus, this study presents one of the first efforts to study crash patterns for Southeast Michigan using machine learning models to analyze and predict crash severity in the region based on various contributing factors. We combine a three-step method of correlation analysis, machine learning predictive models, and spatial analysis to develop a rigid schema for crash prediction. Results show that decision tree classifiers provide accurate predictions and rapid computations. Also, spatial plots of predicted injury severities reveal disproportionate errors in model predictions at intersections prompting the need to stratify the crash data for further analyses. This significantly improves severe injury predictions at non-intersection locations and highlights pedestrians as a main important feature. The converse holds for intersections that identify motorcycles as the main feature for severity prediction. Further results are elucidated in this paper.

The Ann Arbor SPARK - Network Intelligence as a driver for the emergence of a next generation science and technology park

In this article, we review the evolution of the phenomenon known as science and technology parks (STPs) as an instrument designed to spur innovation and entrepreneurship at the level of a regional ecosystem. We develop a concept of the next generation of STP, or STP 2.0, as a network of co-located entrepreneurial firms and as a vital node in the value creation networks in a region. We build our definition based on diverse value creation networks such as examples in Triple Helix and Knowledge Triangle. We analyse the human and social factors related to the effectiveness of utilising networks for innovation towards diverse goals in the paradigm theorised as Network Intelligence Framework, Then, we describe the creation and evolution of Ann Arbor Spark as an example of SPT 2.0 focusing on its organisational design as a community platform, its culture of networking across the silos of research and industry and specific projects designed to accelerate time from labs to markets in the post-industrial region of the Rust Belt Michigan in the US. We end the article with a list of conclusions that can inform the design of new and the transformation of existing STPs designed and managed primarily as a real estate investment under the false assumption that the pure co-location of entrepreneurial agents in a physical location spurs innovation and entrepreneurship.

Evaluation of Real-Time Quaking-Induced Conversion, ELISA, and Immunohistochemistry for Chronic Wasting Disease Diagnosis.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible prion disorder, primarily affecting free-ranging and captive cervids in North America (United States and Canada), South Korea, and Europe (Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Current diagnostic methods used in the United States for detection of CWD in hunter harvested deer involve demonstration of the causal misfolded prion protein (PrPCWD) in the obex or retropharyngeal lymph nodes (RLNs) using an antigen detection ELISA as a screening tool, followed by a confirmation by the gold standard method, immunohistochemistry (IHC). Real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay is a newer approach that amplifies misfolded CWD prions in vitro and has facilitated CWD prion detection in a variety of tissues, body fluids, and excreta. The current study was undertaken to compare ELISA, IHC, and RT-QuIC on RLNs (n = 1,300 animals) from white-tailed deer (WTD) in Michigan. In addition, prescapular, prefemoral and popliteal lymph nodes collected from a small subset (n = 7) of animals were tested. Lastly, the location of the positive samples within Michigan was documented and the percentage of CWD positive RLNs was calculated by sex and age. ELISA and RT-QuIC detected PrPCWD in 184 and 178 out of 1,300 RLNs, respectively. Of the 184 ELISA positive samples, 176 were also IHC positive for CWD. There were seven discordant results when comparing IHC and ELISA. RT-QuIC revealed that six of the seven samples matched the IHC outcomes. One RLN was negative by IHC, but positive by ELISA and RT-QuIC. RT-QuIC, IHC, and ELISA also detected PrPCWD in prescapular, prefemoral and popliteal lymph nodes. CWD infection heterogeneities were observed in different age and sex groups, with young males having higher CWD prevalence. All, except one, CWD positive RLNs analyzed were from ten Counties geographically located in the West Michigan region of the Lower Peninsula. Taken together, we show evidence that the RT-QuIC assay is comparable to ELISA and IHC and could be helpful for routine CWD detection in surveillance programs. RT-QuIC also demonstrated that CWD prions are distributed across lymph nodes in a variety of anatomic locations. A multi-laboratory validation on blinded sample panels is underway and is likely to help to provide insight into the variability (lab-to-lab), analytical sensitivity, and specificity of gold standard diagnostics vs. RT-QuIC assay.

Virtual Geriatric Education Preferences of Rural Social Workers

Older adults in rural communities need access to comprehensive healthcare services provided by practitioners equipped with geriatric knowledge and skills. The Geriatric Rural Extension of Expertise through Telegeriatric Service (GREETS) project goal is to use telemedicine and telehealth to expand geriatric service options to underserved Michigan regions. GREETS educational programs train health practitioners to provide geriatric care for vulnerable older adults. To determine gaps in geriatric competencies, the team conducted an online survey of health professionals including behavioral health practitioners. Respondents identified educational topics and preferred virtual delivery methods. Demographic information included respondent’s professional position, practice setting, and county. The respondents were asked to indicate level of educational need using a scale ranging from a low, medium, or high need. Fifty (47%) of 106 total responses were from social workers. We compared the percent of social workers to other practitioners’ responses in our analysis. Four topics emerged for both groups as medium or high educational needs: 1) transitional care when changing residential settings or post-hospitalization; 2) assisting family caregivers cope with caregiving responsibilities; 3) incorporating community-based services into care plans; and 4) and managing frail older adults. Social workers noted higher need than the other respondents for: 1) managing chronic pain; 2) managing care of patients with multiple chronic conditions; 3) having serious illness conversations; 4) diagnosing dementia; and 5) discussing advance care planning. Both social worker and other respondents indicated interactive case-based webinars; published tools, toolkits, tip sheets; and didactic webinars as their top three learning formats.