In the article the questions of choice and use of tools and methods of strategic management, development, and selection of enterprise strategy. Studied methods of formation of strategy of enterprise development that can be represented in three groups: methods of portfolio analysis, mathematical methods, methods of forecasting. It is determined that the modern enterprise management methods and mechanisms for making key business decisions require the development procedure is both comprehensive and quantitative account and assess the whole spectrum of possible uncertainties and risks involved in the market activity of an economic entity. It is shown that the majority of the business risks to be taken into account, quantified and taken into account in mathematical model of the enterprise includes two main types of market activity of the entity: production and financial. Built economic and mathematical model of optimal choice of strategy of enterprise development considering risk factors using the criterion of maximizing the sum of the consolidated cash flow from operating and financial activities reflects both the production and technological conditions of the enterprise and features of decision-making in the commodity and financial markets. This optimization model is implemented to solve the problem of choosing the optimal development strategy for the main production enterprises "Enko" given the demand market prices and the level of risk is acceptable to decision-makers. For pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios, the optimal production program taking into account risk factors for the criterion of maximizing the sum of the consolidated cash flow from operating and financing activities. It is shown that this model allows for a timely selection of the company’s development strategy in fast-changing business environment and does not require significant time, labor and financial resources.
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