Parameter Estimation Method Research Articles

An analysis of estimation strategies for knock control

Since knock behaves as a random process, all knock controllers regulate some statistical property of this process which must be estimated from the data. The choice of the statistical metric used for feedback, its target value, and the method used for its estimation all have a strong impact on the performance of the closed loop system. In this work, expressions for the asymptotic variance of the estimates of different test statistics are derived and used to compare empirical versus parametric estimation methods. The variance of different metrics and the slope of their response curves (e.g. knock probability vs knock percentile intensity feedback) are also used to compute and compare the efficacy of these different measures for knock control purposes. The efficacy is seen to vary as a function of the chosen knock probability target, and lower knock thresholds/higher knock rate targets are recommended. Finally, the estimator dynamics are shown to dominate the dynamics of the closed loop response, and estimates obtained using a sliding window versus an exponentially weighted moving average are compared and contrasted. In each case, the results are illustrated using closed loop simulations of controller response subject to disturbances.

A novel friction coefficient model parameters identification method for needle-tissue insertion procedure

Abstract In endoscopic liver vascular insertion surgeries, during the process of angiographic operation, the success of vascular staining depends on precise needle insertion control which heavily relies on experienced surgeons. Endoscopic vascular insertion surgical navigation system shows the potential to improve position precision, however it relies on needle-tissue interaction model and parameter identification to provide essential information for improving needle insertion accuracy, in which the friction coefficient is important parameters but difficult to determine. In this paper, a novel needle-tissue friction coefficient identification method was proposed with unknown tissue Young's modulus under endoscopic liver surgery scenarios. A modified friction coefficient model was proposed including the adhesion and elastic friction component to describe needle-tissue dynamic interaction process which can predict the friction coefficient more precisely. The proposed parameter estimation method based on the modified friction model can simultaneously estimate friction coefficient and Young's modulus. The proposed method was demonstrated by the friction coefficient measurement experiment. The results showed that the friction coefficient model prediction results agreed well with expected value. The proposed method can be applied to provide essential tissue-needle interactive information to improve needle insertion precision in the endoscopic liver vascular insertion surgery scenarios.

Novel family of probability generating distributions: Properties and data analysis

Abstract Current probability distributions often fall short when modeling lifespan data with non-monotonic hazard rate shapes, highlighting a gap in probability theory. To address this issue, this study introduces the novel family of probability-generating distributions (NP-G) as a solution to capture complex data patterns better. This research aims to develop and validate the NP-G distributions, which include a two-parameter continuous model based on the Weibull distribution. The study extensively explores the mathematical properties of the NP-G distributions, including series expansions of probability density functions, and evaluates various probabilistic measures such as moments, stress strength, mean deviations, entropy measures, and order statistics. Using the maximum likelihood method for parameter estimation and conducting a numerical simulation analysis, the study assesses the performance of the proposed extended exponentiated Weibull model. The findings demonstrate that this new model offers superior fit and accuracy compared to existing distributions when applied to two referenced datasets. This advancement is significant as it provides a more effective tool for analyzing lifespan data with non-monotonic hazard rates, enhancing both theoretical understanding and practical applications in fields such as reliability engineering and survival analysis.

A Comprehensive Method for Example-Based Color Transfer with Holistic–Local Balancing and Unit-Wise Riemannian Information Gradient Acceleration

Color transfer, an essential technique in image editing, has recently received significant attention. However, achieving a balance between holistic color style transfer and local detail refinement remains a challenging task. This paper proposes an innovative color transfer method, named BHL, which stands for Balanced consideration of both Holistic transformation and Local refinement. The BHL method employs a statistical framework to address the challenge of achieving a balance between holistic color transfer and the preservation of fine details during the color transfer process. Holistic color transformation is achieved using optimal transport theory within the generalized Gaussian modeling framework. The local refinement module adjusts color and texture details on a per-pixel basis using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). To address the high computational complexity inherent in complex statistical modeling, a parameter estimation method called the unit-wise Riemannian information gradient (uRIG) method is introduced. The uRIG method significantly reduces the computational burden through the second-order acceleration effect of the Fisher information metric. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the BHL method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in both visual quality and objective evaluation criteria, even under stringent time constraints. Remarkably, the BHL method processes high-resolution images in an average of 4.874 s, achieving the fastest processing time compared to the baselines. The BHL method represents a significant advancement in the field of color transfer, offering a balanced approach that combines holistic transformation and local refinement while maintaining efficiency and high visual quality.

Traffic count data analysis using mixtures of Kato–Jones distributions

Abstract We discuss the modelling of traffic count data that show the variation of traffic volume within a day. For the modelling, we apply mixtures of Kato–Jones distributions in which each component is unimodal and affords a wide range of skewness and kurtosis. We consider two methods for parameter estimation, namely, a modified method of moments and the maximum-likelihood method. These methods were seen to be useful for fitting the proposed mixtures to our data. As a result, the variation in traffic volume was classified into the morning and evening traffic whose distributions have different shapes, particularly different degrees of skewness and kurtosis.

Ridge estimation for uncertain autoregressive moving average model with imprecise observations

An uncertain time series is a sequence of imprecisely observed values arranged in chronological order, whose main purpose is to predict future values based on previously observed values. It is significant to select an appropriate parameter estimation method in uncertain time series analysis. Firstly, the paper transforms a one-order uncertain autoregressive moving average model into an uncertain autoregressive model by the iterative method. Secondly, the ridge method is used to estimate the unknown parameters in the uncertain autoregressive moving average model, in which the shrinkage parameter is determined by ridge trace analysis. Thirdly, the forecast value and confidence interval are acquired by the residual analysis of the fitted model. Finally, two examples are provided to verify the validity and feasibility of the method. The result shows that the ridge method can effectually cut down the affection of outliers and improve the prediction accuracy compared with the least square estimation.

Reliability analysis of load sharing systems under unequal load-sharing rule with applications

We are examining a setup consisting of several parallel-connected k-out-of-m load sharing systems. The load sharing is modeled using proportional conditional failure rates for component failures and load sharing under the unequal load-sharing rule. We have derived the system reliability for the entire setup. To illustrate this, we examine two cases: one with n systems connected in parallel, each following a 1-out-of-2 configuration, and the other with n systems connected in parallel, each following a 2-out-of-4 configuration. The system components are assumed to be identical with an exponential as well as Weibull baseline distributions. We propose two methods to estimate the baseline parameter and load-sharing parameters. Additionally, we present a confidence interval using bootstrapping techniques, specifically the percentile bootstrap (boot-p). We assess the performance of these parameter estimation and interval estimation methods through simulation studies. Furthermore, we evaluate the practical applicability of the proposed techniques by analyzing two real datasets. The same approach can be applied to a system that includes multiple k-out-of-m load sharing systems, where these systems are connected in either a series or a p-out-of-q configuration.

A Joint Estimation Method of Distribution Network Topology and Line Parameters Based on Power Flow Graph Convolutional Networks

Accurate identification of network topology and line parameters is essential for effective management of distribution systems. An innovative joint estimation method for distribution network topology and line parameters is presented, utilizing a power flow graph convolutional network (PFGCN). This approach addresses the limitations of traditional methods that rely on costly voltage phase angle measurements. The node correlation principle is applied to construct a node correlation matrix, and a minimum distance iteration algorithm is proposed to generate candidate topologies, which serve as graph inputs for the parameter estimation model. Based on the topological dependencies and convolutional properties of AC power flow equations, a PFGCN model is designed for line parameter estimation. Parameter refinement is achieved through an alternating iterative process of pseudo-trend calculation and neural network training. Training convergence and loss function values are used as feedback to filter and validate candidate topologies, enabling precise joint estimation of both topologies and parameters. The proposed method’s accuracy, transferability, and robustness are demonstrated through experiments on the IEEE-33 and modified IEEE-69 distribution systems. Multiple metrics, including MAPE, IAE, MAE, and R2, highlight the proposed method’s advantages over Adaptive Ridge Regression (ARR). In the C33 scenario, the proposed method achieves MAPEs of 4.6% for g and 5.7% for b, outperforming the ARR method with MAPEs of 7.1% and 7.9%, respectively. Similarly, in the IC69 scenario, the proposed method records MAPEs of 3.0% for g and 5.9% for b, surpassing the ARR method’s 5.1% and 8.3%.

Energy Efficiency of Plasma Jets: Electrical Modeling Based on Experimental Results

This paper focuses on the determination of and improvement in the energy efficiency of plasma jets. To achieve this goal, an equivalent electrical model of a discharge reactor was developed, incorporating variable electrical parameters. The evolution of these parameters was determined by a mathematical identification method based on the recursive least squares algorithm (RLSA). The good agreement between the measured currents and those calculated using our electrical circuit, as well as the significant shapes of the estimated parameters, confirmed the accuracy of the parameter estimation method. This allowed us to use these parameters to determine the energy delivered to the reactor and that used during the discharge. This made our reactor controllable at the energy level. Thus, the ratio between these two energies allowed us to calculate the energy efficiency of plasma jets at each discharge instant. We also studied the effect of the applied voltage on efficiency. We found that efficiency was increased from 75% to 90% by increasing the voltage from 6 kV to 8 kV. All the results found in this work were interpreted and compared with the discharge behavior. This proposed model will help us to choose the right operating conditions to reach the maximum efficiency.

A fault location method for DC transmission line based on the distributed parameter model considering line parameter uncertainty

Addressing the impact of whether line parameters can be accurately obtained and the errors due to environmental influences on the accuracy of fault location for DC transmission line, this paper proposes a fault location method based on the distributed parameter model that accounts for uncertainty in line parameter. To address the challenge of accurately obtaining DC transmission line parameters, a high-order derivative-based parameter estimation method is introduced to determine unknown equivalent parameters of the DC transmission line. Additionally, an optimization algorithm is incorporated to dynamically correct parameter errors, thereby enhancing parameter stability and constructing an accurate line model. Based on this, theoretical derivations confirm the applicability of the Tellegen's quasi-power theorem in the normal operation and internal fault equivalent models of DC transmission line. A fault location function is established based on the relationship between the line's Tellegen quasi-power characteristic and fault distance. The proposed method's effectiveness and accuracy are validated using a DC system model built on the PSCAD/EMTDC simulation platform. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method can locate faults under different fault conditions.

The Representative Points of Generalized Alpha Skew-t Distribution and Applications

Assuming the underlying statistical distribution of data is critical in information theory, as it impacts the accuracy and efficiency of communication and the definition of entropy. The real-world data are widely assumed to follow the normal distribution. To better comprehend the skewness of the data, many models more flexible than the normal distribution have been proposed, such as the generalized alpha skew-t (GAST) distribution. This paper studies some properties of the GAST distribution, including the calculation of the moments, and the relationship between the number of peaks and the GAST parameters with some proofs. For complex probability distributions, representative points (RPs) are useful due to the convenience of manipulation, computation and analysis. The relative entropy of two probability distributions could have been a good criterion for the purpose of generating RPs of a specific distribution but is not popularly used due to computational complexity. Hence, this paper only provides three ways to obtain RPs of the GAST distribution, Monte Carlo (MC), quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), and mean square error (MSE). The three types of RPs are utilized in estimating moments and densities of the GAST distribution with known and unknown parameters. The MSE representative points perform the best among all case studies. For unknown parameter cases, a revised maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method of parameter estimation is compared with the plain MLE method. It indicates that the revised MLE method is suitable for the GAST distribution having a unimodal or unobvious bimodal pattern. This paper includes two real-data applications in which the GAST model appears adaptable to various types of data.

Model-Centric Integration of Uncertain Expert Knowledge into Importance Sampling-Based Parameter Estimation

This study presents a model-based parameter estimation method for integrating and validating uncertainty in expert knowledge and simulation models. The parameters of the models of complex systems are often unknown due to a lack of measurement data. The experience-based knowledge of experts can substitute missing information, which is usually imprecise. The novelty of the present paper is a method based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and importance sampling (IS) techniques for integrating uncertain expert knowledge into the system model. Uncertain knowledge about the model parameters is propagated through the system model by MC simulation in the form of a discrete sample, while IS helps to weight the sample elements regarding imprecise knowledge about the outputs in an iterative circle. Thereby, the consistency of expert judgments can be investigated as well. The contributions of this paper include an expert knowledge-based parameter estimation technique and a method for the evaluation of expert judgments according to the estimation results to eliminate incorrect ones. The applicability of the proposed method is introduced through a case study of a Hungarian operating waste separation system. The results verify that the assessments of experts can be efficiently integrated into system models, and their consistency can be evaluated.

State of Charge Estimation for Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Fractional-Order Kreisselmeier-Type Adaptive Observer

For the safe and efficient use of lithium-ion batteries, the state of charge (SOC) is a particularly important state variable. In this paper, we propose a method for the online estimation of SOC and model parameters based on a fractional-order equivalent circuit model. Firstly, we constructed a fractional-order battery model that includes pseudo-capacitance and determined the values of the circuit elements offline using the least squares method from actual input–output data based on the driving profile of an automobile. Compared to the integer-order battery model, we confirmed that the proposed fractional-order battery model has higher accuracy. Secondly, we constructed a fractional-order Kreisselmeier-type adaptive observer as an observer that performs state estimation and parameter adjustment simultaneously. Applying the general adaptive law to the battery model results in a redundant design with many adjustable parameters, so we proposed an adaptive law that reduces the number of adjustable parameters without compromising the stability of the observer. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through numerical simulations. As a result, the high estimation accuracy and convergence of the proposed adaptive law were confirmed.

Modelling ℤ-valued time series with Skellam thinning-based INAR(1) process

ABSTRACT Non-stationary count time series, which are small in value and show a trend having relatively large fluctuation, are commonly encountered in real-world applications. Differencing is a commonly employed method to transform a non-stationary time series into a stationary one. However, the differenced count time series is defined on Z and cannot be fitted by the mainstream count time series models, which are defined on N 0 . Although some integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models based on the signed thinning operator have been proposed for fitting Z -valued time series, these models still encounter difficulties in terms of data generation mechanism, model selection, and parameter estimation. These difficulties may pose challenges for practitioners in practical applications. Therefore, this article utilizes the reparameterized version of the Skellam (Poisson difference) distribution to construct a new thinning operator, thereby introducing a class of Z -valued time series models. Strict stationarity, ergodicity, statistical properties, and parameter estimation methods of the processes are detailedly discussed. An application to the monthly counts of newly listed companies illustrates that the new model is superior in data analysis of finance and economics.

Bearing remaining life prediction method based on ARAD -ELN and multi-stage wiener process

Abstract Stochastic process-based models are extensively utilized in health assessments and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) predictions of bearings. Nevertheless, bearings in actual operation undergo multiple degradation stages, each characterized by its unique trend of degradation. The application of a singular stochastic process for RUL prediction falls short of achieving optimal performance. Consequently, this paper introduces a multi-stage Wiener process-based approach for the prediction of bearings' RUL. Initially, to tackle the challenge of imbalanced sample sizes across different degradation stages of bearings, an ensemble learning-based neural network (ELN) enhanced by ARIMA Residual Anomaly Detection (ARAD) for the identification of bearing degradation stages is proposed. Subsequently, taking into account the temporal, unit-to-unit, and nonlinear variabilities of the degradation process at each stage, a Wiener process-based multi-stage degradation model for bearings is developed. A method for parameter estimation and updating, utilizing Kalman filtering and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (K-M) is introduced. Finally, the proposed model undergoes validation using both simulated data and the XJTU-SY bearing dataset. Experimental results of three RUL predictions show that the proposed method leads the benchmark model with RMSE values of 3.61, 2.92 and 7.24 respectively, affirming that the proposed model can precisely classify equipment degradation stages and predict RUL with high accuracy and stability.

Enhancing Effort-Moderated Item Response Theory Models by Evaluating a Two-Step Estimation Method and Multidimensional Variations on the Model

Rapid-guessing behavior in data can compromise our ability to estimate item and person parameters accurately. Consequently, it is crucial to model data with rapid-guessing patterns in a way that can produce unbiased ability estimates. This study proposes and evaluates three alternative modeling approaches that follow the logic of the effort-moderated item response theory model (EM-IRT) to analyze response data with rapid-guessing responses. One is the two-step EM-IRT model, which utilizes the item parameters estimated by respondents without rapid-guessing behavior and was initially proposed by Rios and Soland without further investigation. The other two models are effort-moderated multidimensional models (EM-MIRT), which we introduce in this study and vary as both between-item and within-item structures. The advantage of the EM-MIRT model is to account for the underlying relationship between rapid-guessing propensity and ability. The three models were compared with the traditional EM-IRT model regarding the accuracy of parameter recovery in various simulated conditions. Results demonstrated that the two-step EM-IRT and between-item EM-MIRT model consistently outperformed the traditional EM-IRT model under various conditions, with the two-step EM-IRT estimation generally delivering the best performance, especially for ability and item difficulty parameters estimation. In addition, different rapid-guessing patterns (i.e., difficulty-based, changing state, and decreasing effort) did not affect the performance of the two-step EM-IRT model. Overall, the findings suggest that the EM-IRT model with the two-step parameter estimation method can be applied in practice for estimating ability in the presence of rapid-guessing responses due to its accuracy and efficiency. The between-item EM-MIRT model can be used as an alternative model when there is no significant mean difference in the ability estimates between examinees who exhibit rapid-guessing behavior and those who do not.

Development of a high-fidelity digital twin using the discrete element method for a continuous direct compression process. Part 1. Calibration workflow

In this work, a high-fidelity digital twin was developed to support the design and testing of control strategies for drug product manufacturing via direct compression. The high-fidelity digital twin platform was based on typical pharmaceutical equipment, materials, and direct compression continuous processes. The paper describes in detail the material characterization, the Discrete Element Method (DEM) model and the DEM model parameter calibration approach and provides a comparison of the system’s response to the experimental results for stepwise changes in the API concentration at the mixer inlet. A calibration method for a cohesive DEM contact model parameter estimation was introduced. To assure a correct prediction for a wide range of processes, the calibration approach contained four characterization experiments using different stress states and different measurement principles, namely the bulk density test, compression with elastic recovery, the shear cell, and the rotating drum. To demonstrate the sensitivity of the DEM contact parameters to the process response, two powder characterization data sets with different powder flowability were applied. The results showed that the calibration method could differentiate between the different material batches of the same blend and that small-scale material characterization tests could be used to predict the residence time distribution in a continuous manufacturing process.

A bivariate dependent degradation model based on artificial neural network supported stochastic process and Copula function

AbstractIn order to use the high ability of the artificial neural network (ANN) in data fitting, this paper introduces an ANN in stochastic process to describe the mean function for degradation modeling. Due to the fact that the existing method cannot handle the bivariate dependent degradation conditions, a bivariate dependent degradation model based on Copula function and ANN‐supported stochastic processes is proposed. Considering the random effects caused by individual difference, it is assumed that the unknown parameters in the stochastic processes and Copula functions are randomly distributed. Based on the maximum likelihood and moment estimation methods, a related statistical inference method for ANN training and parameter estimation is developed to use the bivariate dependent degradation model. An actual fatigue crack dataset is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The obtained results show that the dependent relationship between two degradation indicators should not be neglected, and it can be efficiently handled by the proposed method. Furthermore, the proposed degradation model can provide reliability and degradation intervals with enough precision due to the fact that it considers the random effects caused by individual difference.

Assessing Transducer Parameters for Accurate Medium Sound Speed Estimation and Image Reconstruction.

The influence of the transducer lens on image reconstruction is often overlooked. Lenses usually exhibit a lower sound speed than soft biological tissues. In academic research, the exact lens sound speed and thickness are typically unknown. Here, we present a simple and nondestructive method to characterize the lens sound speed and thickness as well as the time to peak of the round-trip ultrasound waveform, another key parameter for optimal image reconstruction. We applied our method to three transducers with center frequencies of 2.5, 7.5, and 15 MHz. We estimated the three parameters with an element-by-element transmission sequence that records internal reflections within the lens. We validated the retrieved parameters using an autofocusing approach that estimates sound speed in water. We show that the combination of our parameters estimation method with two-layer ray tracing outperforms standard image reconstruction. For all transducers, we successfully improved the accuracy of medium sound speed estimation, spatial resolution, and contrast. The proposed method is simple and robust and provides an accurate estimation of the transducer lens parameters and the time to peak of the ultrasound waveform, which leads to improved ultrasound image quality.

New Bounded Probability Model: Properties, Estimation, and Applications

The article introduces a new unit distribution, an extension of Tiessier distribution, characterized by a versatile hazard function capable of adopting diverse shapes such as bathtub or N-shaped curves. An exploration of the fundamental properties of this distribution is undertaken, accompanied by the implementation of the maximum likelihood estimation technique and eleven alternative methods to approximate its parameters effectively. Through a simulation study, the article effectively demonstrates the precision of these parameter estimation methods, even when dealing with small sample sizes. Two datasets are employed to apply the novel distribution, subjecting it to a comprehensive evaluation against established models utilizing a range of model selection criteria and goodness of fit tests. Notably, the article illustrates that the performance of the new distribution surpasses that of existing models in effectively capturing data patterns. Beyond its empirical contributions, the article highlights the potential cross-disciplinary applications of the new distribution in many fields while concurrently advancing the realms of probability theory and statistical inferences.