Plastic-metal joints with a laser-structured metal surface have a high potential to reduce cost and weight compared to conventional joining technologies. However, their application is currently inhibited due to the absence of simulation methods and models for mechanical design. Thus, this paper presents a model-based approach for the strength estimation of laser-based plastic-metal joints. The approach aims to provide a methodology for the efficient creation of surrogate models, which can capture the influence of the microstructure parameters on the joint strength. A parametrization rule for the shape of the microstructure is developed using microsection analysis. Then, a parameterized finite element (FE) model of the joining zone on micro level is developed. Different statistical plans and model fits are tested, and the predicted strength of the FE model and the surrogate models are compared against experiments for different microstructure geometries. The joint strength is predicted by the FE model with a 3.7% error. Surrogate modelling using half-factorial experimental design and linear regression shows the best accuracy (6.2% error). This surrogate model can be efficiently created as only 16 samples are required. Furthermore, the surrogate model is provided as an equation, offering the designer a convenient tool to estimate parameter sensitivities.