Soft materials can experience a mechanical instability when subjected to a finite compression, developing wrinkles which may eventually evolve into folds or creases. The possibility to control the wrinkling network morphology has recently found several applications in many developing fields, such as scaffolds for biomaterials, stretchable electronics and surface micro-fabrication. Albeit much is known of the pattern initiation at the linear stability order, the nonlinear effects driving the pattern selection in soft materials are still unknown. This work aims at investigating the nature of the elastic bifurcation undertaken by a growing soft layer subjected to a equi-biaxial strain. Considering a skin effect at the free surface, the instability thresholds are found to be controlled by a characteristic length, defined by the ratio between capillary energy and bulk elasticity. For the first time, a weakly nonlinear analysis of the wrinkling instability is performed here using the multiple-scale perturbation method applied to the incremental theory in finite elasticity. The Ginzburg–Landau equations are derived for different superposing linear modes. This study proves that a subcritical pitchfork bifurcation drives the observed wrinkle-to-fold transition in swelling gels experiments, favoring the emergence of hexagonal creased patterns, albeit quasi-hexagonal patterns might later emerge because of an expected symmetry break. Moreover, if the surface energy is somewhat comparable to the bulk elastic energy, it has the same stabilizing effect as for fluid instabilities, driving the formation of stable wrinkles, as observed in elastic bi-layered materials.