Material Flow Analysis Method Research Articles

Strategies for effective reuse of waste from abandoned buildings under sustainable development

Introduction: In the continuous advancement of urbanization, abandoned buildings are a huge challenge in achieving sustainable development goals. If these legacy buildings are not properly handled, they will cause a huge burden on society, economy, and the environment. Based on the material flow analysis method, an evaluation index system was constructed for legacy building resources, and a systematic study was conducted on the reuse pathways of their waste.Methods: This study focuses on the material flow, reuse pathways, and resource utilization strategies of legacy construction waste, aiming to improve the reuse efficiency of waste building materials and promote the achievement of sustainable development goals. In the study, indicator design was used to quantify the obstacles to the reuse of legacy construction waste, and social and economic costs were analyzed to ensure the comprehensiveness and scientificity of the research.Results: The experimental results show that the waste recycling rate under the implementation of this strategy reached 82.7%, and the resource utilization rate increased by 50.1%. For the obstacles to the reuse of construction waste, the network density reaches 0.052, and the overall network structure shows a lack of concentration, indicating that the current management methods for construction waste reuse have further optimization space.Discussion: The study effectively promotes the sustainable utilization of legacy buildings in cities, which is of great significance for improving the quality of urban space and promoting sustainable social development.

Research on copper flow and environmental load in China's new infrastructure industry for carbon neutrality

With the rapid development of new infrastructure in China, the demand for copper has increased significantly. In 2021, copper consumption in this sector accounted for 9.1% of China's total consumption, becoming a new driving force for copper demand. This study analyzed copper flow characteristics and primary driving factors in China's new infrastructure sectors using the material flow analysis method, quantified the environmental loads of the metabolic processes, and predicted copper demand in the new infrastructure sectors by 2030 through scenario analysis. The primary conclusions drawn are as follows: In 2021, copper consumption in new infrastructure sectors was 1,225,700 tons, with the rail transportation sector accounting for 59.6% and the artificial intelligence sector accounting for 0.6%. The rail transportation sector had the largest total environmental load, with carbon emissions of approximately 3,513,372 tons. From the perspective of tons of copper products, the 5G sector had the highest environmental load, while the big data centers had the lowest. In the seven sectors of new infrastructure, the environmental load contribution rates across the four stages showed little variation, with their proportions being 49.0, 29.8, 15.8, and 5.4%, respectively. Recycling of discarded copper products can effectively reduce industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions. Under the three scenarios set in this study, the copper demand in the new infrastructure sector by 2030 will be 3.856, 3.233, and 2.625 million tons, respectively. Using wind energy to replace coal in copper production can reduce carbon emissions by approximately 43.2%.

Efficiency Characteristics and Evolution Patterns of Urban Carbon Metabolism of Production-Living-Ecological Space in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This study explored the carbon metabolism efficiency of a production-living-ecological space system, which is of great significance for regional factor integration and spatial optimization. In this study, the material flow analysis method was introduced to establish a framework for evaluating the carbon metabolism efficiency of the production-living-ecological space system, and the super-efficiency DEA model and Malmquist index were used to empirically analyze the spatio-temporal distribution, dynamic change, and evolution patterns of the carbon metabolism efficiency of production-living-ecological space in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China, from 2000 to 2020 on the basis of the urban metabolic perspective. The results showed that:① the carbon metabolism efficiency of the production-living-ecological space showed a fluctuating growth trend, indicating the significant spatial differentiation of carbon metabolism efficiency in each city. There was a low overall carbon metabolism efficiency level, with a distribution pattern of being high in the middle and low in the north and south. ② The Malmquist index showed that the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of carbon metabolism efficiency was greater than 1, and both the Technical Change (TC) and Pure Efficiency Change (PEC) were less than 1, in which the TFP showed an increasing trend, whereas there was no significant contribution of technological progress or pure technical efficiency to carbon metabolism efficiency. The total factor productivity of more than 50% of the cities showed an improving trend, only 38.46% of which made technological progress in improving carbon metabolism efficiency, and more than half of the urban pure technical efficiency showed a decreasing trend, in which the technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change were greater than 1 in most cities. ③ There were different types of carbon efficiency characteristics in each city, and according to the movement rules of the corresponding points in the quartile map, the evolution patterns of tourism industry efficiency were classified into stable, reciprocating, progressive, and abrupt. Therefore, local governments should adopt differentiated strategies to reasonably allocate spatial resources of production-living-ecological space and improve the technical level and scale efficiency, so as to improve the efficiency of urban carbon metabolism.

Mapping the evolution of manganese flows and stocks in China from 2000 to 2021

Manganese is a strategic metal that has been widely applied in the steelmaking industry and the emerging energy batteries industry. China is the largest manganese importer and consumer, but the critical features of its manganese metabolisms, including its supply and demand, trade, and waste management, remain unclear. By applying dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) method, this research investigates the evolution of China’s anthropogenic manganese flows and stocks during the period of 2000 to 2021. We found that the demand for manganese had increased almost tenfold in China from 2000 to 2021, mainly used for steelmaking, while the surging demand for manganese in energy batteries had gradually increased. However, China highly relied on importing manganese concentrates due to its limited manganese resources. The cumulative in-use manganese stocks also increased by tenfold and reached approximately 168 million tons (Mt). In addition, manganese flow from the end-of-life (EoL) final products reached 12 Mt in 2021, but few of them were recycled, implying a huge recycling potential. These findings provide valuable insights to prepare more appropriate manganese resource management policies, such as improving domestic mining technologies, enhancing manganese recycling, and diversifying the supply of manganese resources, so that the overall manganese resource efficiency can be improved.

Assessing the Ecological Cost of Material Flow in China’s Waste Paper Recycling System

This article introduces the concept of ecological costs associated with the waste paper recycling system. The costs associated with this process include resource consumption, waste emissions, ecological damage, and production processes. To analyze the ecological costs of deviations from the baseline material flow in a waste paper recycling system, a benchmark material flow diagram is constructed using the material flow analysis method. The diagram illustrates a fully closed one-way material flow of the recycling system, which is highly abstracted and simplified. The study analyzed the ecological costs of the benchmark material flow and the impact of deviations from it. The results suggest that the circulation of materials within and between processes increases the ecological cost of the waste paper recycling system. Furthermore, the release of materials from a process into the environment also contributes to its ecological impact. However, the introduction of external materials into the recycling system can reduce its ecological impact, particularly if these materials are recycled resources. The study emphasizes the significance of considering ecological costs in waste paper recycling systems to minimize their environmental impact.

Revealing cradle-to-gate CO2 emissions for steel product producing by different technological pathways based on material flow analysis

Revealing the life-cycle CO2 emissions of steel products is of great significance for mitigating CO2 emissions. However, previous studies did not conduct comparative analysis for steel products produced by different technological pathways, resulting in considerable confusion in the setting of carbon reduction pathways. By using the material flow analysis method, this study revealed the life-cycle CO2 emissions associated with various technological pathways. The results shows that life-cycle CO2 emissions per metric ton of steel are: 3620.78 kg for shaft furnace (SF)-electric furnace (EF) routes, 2598.54 kg for blast furnace (BF)- basic oxygen furnace (BOF), 1868.16 kg for Scrap & Molten Iron-EF and 1330.22 kg for scrap-EF. The energy structure (e.g. coal blending mode, power generation mode) material structure (e.g. iron ore matching mode, matching mode of scrap and molten iron), and transportation mode have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Undoubtedly, low-carbon or zero-carbon electricity is more effective in reducing CO2 emissions.

Decreasing resilience of China's coupled nitrogen-phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action.

The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N-P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in resilience between 1980 and 2020, with further decreases expected by 2060 across different socio-economic pathways. Under a clean energy scenario with additional N and P demand, the resilience of the N-P-coupled cycling network would suffer considerably, especially in the N layer. China's socio-economic system may also see greater N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle and amplifying the conflict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings on scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs can aid the management of N- and P-cycling networks in China by reducing chemical fertilizer use and food waste, for example.

Regulation Mechanism for Designing Decarbonization Pathways in the Copper Industry Toward Carbon Neutrality.

The transformation of the global power structure caused by the carbon neutrality goal will promote copper consumption. It is crucial to explore the decarbonization pathways of the copper industry to help fulfill greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. This study utilized material flow analysis and life cycle assessment methods to investigate 12 different subscenarios based on international trade, circular economy, technology evolution, and environmental market factors. Policy combination scenario is employed to reveal the mechanism of decarbonization. The results show that refined copper consumption in China is expected to increase by 62.3% in 2060 compared to 2020. The GHG emissions of China's copper industry will reach 9.1 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e in 2060, technology evolution and environmental market are crucial for realizing carbon neutrality goal of this industry, accounting for 26.4 and 47.2% of emissions reductions, respectively, between 2020 and 2060. International trade and circular economy play important roles in the high-quality carbon peaking stage; however, imported copper and domestic secondary copper will constitute the basic supply of copper resources in China in the long run, and the comparative advantages of them will gradually weaken. Policy combination scenario can achieve the incentive synergy effect, with GHG reduced to 0.5 Mt CO2e in 2060. The enhanced application of policies such as material substitution and carbon emission trading will further promote industry to achieve net-zero GHG emission. We suggest regulating the industry's structure based on the international systemic circulation pattern and accelerating the construction of a green circular chain in the short term to achieve sustainable copper supply and high-quality carbon peaking. Promoting a high-quality technology development strategy and enhancing the environmental markets are recommended in the long term to achieve carbon neutrality.

Tracking the evolution of niobium cycle in China from 2000 to 2021: A dynamic material flow analysis

Niobium has been classified as one critical metal due to its wide applications in both fundamental and strategic industries. However, niobium resource is limited and unevenly distributed. China is the biggest niobium consumer and the demand for niobium will continue to increase due to its rapid urbanization and industrial development. This study aims to uncover the key features of niobium metabolism in China during 2000–2021 by employing a dynamic material flow analysis method. Our results show that both niobium flows and stocks experienced fast growth in China and the domestic demand for finished niobium products was highly concentrated. Moreover, China mainly relied on importing primary niobium resources from Brazil and Canada, while exporting semi-finished niobium products to Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India. Several policies are then proposed by considering the Chinese realities to improve the utilization efficiency of niobium resources and secure its sustainable supply.

Incorporating biochar into fuels system of iron and steel industry: carbon emission reduction potential and economic analysis

Biochar as a prospective renewable energy candidate could be incorporated into the iron and steel production system to replace part of fossil fuels and reduce high-intensity greenhouse gas emissions. However, great uncertainties still exist on biochar's emission reduction capacity and economic feasibility, depending on different biochar precursors, substitution scenarios, energy consumption of biochar production and financial cost. This study aimed to explore the optimized substitution strategies concerning the above issues. A systematic carbon accounting was performed by material flow analysis method (MFA). Two biochar incorporated iron and steel production routes, integrated production route (BF-BOF) and short production route (EAF), which took the proportion of 71.5% and 28.2% in worldwide production, were considered. CO2 Supply Curve (CSC) was conducted to carry out a quantitative economic viability analysis of biochar substitution under carbon emission trading schemes (ETS). Results showed that compared with straw-based biochar, wood-based biochar showed stronger carbon reduction capacity of 1.47 t CO2e (CO2-equivalent) /t crude steel, and the reduction potential reached 66.94% mostly. Among all the steel production processes, Blast furnace in BF-BOF route had the largest emission contribution proportion (72.06%), achieving the best GWP100 reduction potential of 73.66%. The incorporation of wood-based biochar in sintering (−0.037 yuan/t CO2e) was selected as the scenario with both reduction potential and economic viability. If the scenario was fully implemented in China, it could reduce 2.01 million tons of CO2e in 2021. This study would play a vital role in guiding iron and steel industry for biochar substituted fuels.

Perancangan Sistem Pengelolaan Sampah dengan Metode Material Flow Analysis (MFA) (Studi Kasus: Kota Tasikmalaya)

This study concerns the design of a waste management system using the Material Flow Analysis (MFA) method in the city of Tasikmalaya. TPA Ciangir is the only landfill in Tasikmalaya, and its storage capacity has reached its maximum, necessitating improvements in waste management. The aim of this design is to determine an appropriate waste management system that can be implemented in Tasikmalaya. Based on observations and interviews, waste collection at TPA Ciangir in Tasikmalaya is conducted in small amounts, leading to a significant amount of household waste not being collected daily, resulting in waste accumulation and minimal transport to waste processing facilities. According to Permen PU Number 3 of 2013 and SNI 19-2454-2002, waste collection from the source should be conducted at least once every two days. Therefore, an evaluation and redesign of the waste management system based on technical aspects are needed. The best system selection will be carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, which will then be recommended for application at TPA Ciangir in Tasikmalaya. Based on the calculations using the AHP method, scenario 3 scored the highest, at 1.676, using composting processes, RDF, and TPST-3R. From the design results, a total waste reduction of 81% was achieved, aligning with the government's target of a 70% waste reduction by 2020.

Insight into Municipal Reactive Nitrogen Emissions and Their Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Xiamen City, China

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) has been confirmed as an indispensable nutrient for the city ecosystem, but high-intensity human activities have led to nitrogen pollution in cities, especially in coastal cities, jeopardizing ecosystem services and human health. Despite this, the characteristics and influencing factors of Nr remain unclear in coastal cities, particularly in the context of rapid urbanization. This study used the material flow analysis method to estimate Nr emissions in Xiamen from 1995 to 2018 and evaluated the characteristics of excessive Nr emissions. The STIRPAT model was used to identify and explore factors contributing to observed Nr levels in coastal cities. As indicated by the results, (1) the quantity of Nr generated by human activities increased 3.5 times from 1995 to 2018. Specifically, the total Nr entering the water environment showed a general increase with fluctuations, exhibiting an average annual growth rate of 3.1%, increasing from 17.2 Gg to 35.1 Gg. (2) Nr loads in the nearby sea increased notably from 8.1 Gg in 1995 to 25.4 Gg in 2018, suggesting a threefold augmentation compared with surface waters and groundwater. (3) NOx was the gaseous Nr with the greatest effect on the atmosphere in Xiamen, which was primarily due to fossil fuel consumption. (4) Population and per capita GDP were major factors contributing to Nr load in the water environment, while Nr emission to the atmosphere was influenced by population and energy consumption. These findings provide valuable insights for tailored approaches to sustainable nitrogen management in coastal cities.

Puebla City Water Supply from the Perspective of Urban Water Metabolism

The city of Puebla is a mid-sized Mexican city facing multiple water-related challenges, from overexploitation of water sources and extreme pollution of rivers to water conflicts and contestation processes due to the privatization of water supply. Due to the complexity of urban water systems and their relevance for urban life, a holistic and integrative perspective is therefore needed to inform policymakers addressing such challenges. In this paper, Urban Water Metabolism (UWM) has been used to offer a comprehensive understanding of current water insecurity in the City of Puebla and its metropolitan area. Water inflows and outflows have been estimated using the Material Flow Analysis (MFA) method with data either obtained from official sources or simulated with the Monte Carlo method. Our findings show that the UWM configuration in the City of Puebla and its metropolitan area is effective for generating profits for service providers and water-related businesses, yet ineffective for guaranteeing citizens’ Human Right to Water and Sanitation (HRWS), a right recognized in the Constitution of Mexico. We conclude that to advance towards an inclusive and sustainable long-term provision of water, economic goals must follow socio-ecological goals, not the other way around. We consider UWM accounting useful for informing policy and decision-making processes seeking to build a new water governance based on both the best available knowledge and inclusive and vibrant social participation.

Material flow analysis on the critical resources from spent power lithium-ion batteries under the framework of China's recycling policies

With the rapid growth of electric vehicles in China, the number of spent power lithium-ion batteries is dramatically increased. Considering the environmental risk, security risk, and potential resource value, China has issued a series of laws and regulations to manage the spent power lithium-ion batteries. This work employs the material flow analysis method to evaluate the material flows of Li, Ni, Co, and Mn during the life cycle of power lithium-ion batteries under the framework of China's recycling policy system. The results show that the demand for primary Li, Ni, Co, and Mn can achieve 26.9, 68.1, 20.4, and 21.9 kt in 2021, and a lot of primary critical resources will inburst the in-use stage. Moreover, the number of secondary Li, Ni, Co, and Mn can achieve 6.1, 15.4, 4.6, and 5 kt in 2021, accounting for 22.7%, 22.6%, 22.5%, and 22.8% of their corresponding demand. Based on the economic evaluation under the framework of China's recycling policy system, it is found that the potential recycling values of Li, Ni, Co, and Mn are approximately 966, 523, 414, and 43 million RMB yuan, which are 66.4%, 71%, 59.6%, and 66.4% higher than those in the absence of China's recycling policy system. It is implied that China's recycling policy system could markedly improve the collection rate by reducing losses and indirectly enhancing the recycling and reuse of spent power lithium-ion batteries. This work is expected to provide guidance for policymakers to improve the management of spent power lithium-ion batteries in China.

Dynamic material flow analysis of rhenium in China for 2011–2020

Rhenium (Re) is one rare and heavy metal element that plays an important role in various fields, such as aerospace applications, petroleum industry, and power generation. However, less attention has been paid to its metabolism patterns. This study employs a dynamic material flow analysis method to investigate the anthropogenic Re cycle in China from 2011 to 2020. The results show that the annual demand for Re had increased from 7.02 tons to 10.41 tons during the study period, in which 44.91% of the total Re was used to produce petro-reforming catalysts and 32.87% of the total Re was used to make aero-engines. A total of 54.94 tons of Re became in-use stock and 18.55 tons were discarded. A significant Re loss (55.92 tons) was generated in the refining and separation stage, mainly due to cost and technological constraints. On the supply side, the domestic primary Re production remained stable in China, but unable to meet the market demand. Therefore, China has to rely on importing Re products, with a net import reliance (NIR) of more than 75% in recent years. The imported Re had increased from 8.68 tons in 2011 to 18.99 tons in 2020. About 85.4% of the imported final products were aero-engines. By identifying several problems hindering the sustainable use of Re in China, we proposed several policy recommendations to improve the overall Re resource efficiency, such as policy and economic supports for Re recycling, enhancing Re's production and utilization technologies, and strengthening Re supply resilience.

Evaluation of agricultural and rural pollution under environmental measures in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

In this study, material flow and spatial analysis methods were used to evaluate and predict the spatial–temporal pattern evolution of agricultural and rural nitrogen (N) flow in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China from 1949 to 2050 and to analyze agricultural and rural pollution control by environmental measures. The results showed that since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the crop harvest in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has shown an overall upward trend, and the increase in the period from 1979 to 1997 was the fastest, with an average annual increase rate of 3.8%. Since the reform and opening up, N loss (storage) increased from 50.97 × 108 kgN in 1978 to 140.15 × 108 kgN in 2014, a 2.75-fold increase. In 2015, China began to implement measures to prevent and control agricultural and rural pollution, and N loss (storage) decreased yearly. In 2019, the N loss (storage) decreased by 18.22% compared with that in 2015, but it was still high. Each year, 113.44 × 108 kgN was still lost to the atmosphere, water and soil, which was 1.53 times the amount of N harvested with crops. The N loss rate was as high as 60%. Before 2014, N discharge into surface water from agricultural and rural areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased annually, especially after 1978, with an average growth rate of 4.76%, leading to severe nonpoint source pollution. With the implementation of the pollution control policy, the N lost to surface water began to show a downward trend in 2015, but it was still 2.17 times higher than the environmental risk threshold in 2019. According to the prediction, under the scenarios of the business-as-usual, fertilizer reduction, engineering and rural improvement patterns, the N emissions from the system to surface water in 2050 are expected to be reduced by 25.76%, 45.5%, 30% and 30%, respectively, compared with those in 2019, but will still be higher than the environmental risk threshold. Under the integrated pattern, the N emissions to surface water are reduced to 4.32 × 108 kgN in 2050, which is lower than the environmental risk threshold and can achieve the goal of nonpoint source pollution control. A single environmental measure cannot effectively control nonpoint source pollution. It is necessary to promote an integrated pattern to achieve green and sustainable development of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Can China reach the win-win goals for food security and pollution control from the perspective of nitrogen flow analysis？

Producing enough food to simultaneously address food shortage and agro-environmental pollution problems attracts attention globally. To quantify the risks of nutrition crisis to food security and the agro-environment under current agricultural policies in China, this study evaluates and predict the spatiotemporal patterns of nitrogen (N) flows during 1949–2050 through material flow analysis (MFA) and spatial analysis methods. The results show that (1) the crop harvest (including grains, fruits and vegetables) in China increased by a factor of 8.12 from 1949 to 2019, accompanied by a large amount of N loss to the environment. Compared to 1949, N runoff increased 1.23 times in 1979 and 3.43 times in 1999 after which time agricultural pollution control policy achieved initial results, and the crop harvest increased steadily. (2) At the national average level, crop production will increase by 58.60% in 2050, which is higher than the food security threshold while N loss to the environment will be lower than the agro-environmental risk threshold. Under the current agricultural policy, the win-win goals of crop production increase and pollution control can be realized in China. (3) China has obvious temporal and spatial differences in N flows, for which four regions has been divided. Region II, mainly located in Yangtze River Economic Belt, is a high-risk area for N loss. By 2050, environmental pollution can be controlled under the current agricultural policies. However, crop production will only increase by 10% compared with its historical high value, lower than food security threshold. It is necessary to implement more targeted management of high-risk areas by adopting methods such as fallowing or construction of pollution buffer zones while improving N fertilizer use efficiency. For region III, the impact of N loss on the environment has always been at a low level, so there is still great room for increasing future crop production in this region. On average, China will be able to achieve green and sustainable development for agriculture nationally, but there are remaining food security risks in high N loss areas. More targeted N management strategies should be applied to achieve better goals in the future.

Using Material Flow Analysis (MFA) for Waste Management Planning in Batang Regency

The population of Batang Regency in 2021 reached 810,393 people, which has increased from the previous year. The increase in population results in an increase in the amount of waste generated in each region. However, Batang Regency only has Randukuning landfill as the only waste final processing site in this regency. The condition of the Randukuning landfill based on existing conditions during field surveys still uses the open dumping method with no massive reduction before the waste goes to the landfill. This condition is a separate consideration for planning waste management for good waste management in Batang Regency. In this waste management planning, the development of waste technology can also be used as a solution to how to manage waste effectively and efficiently. One way to determine the technology to be used is to use the Material Flow Analysis (MFA) method. This MFA method is a method that uses STAN software to determine the critical flow of the Batang Regency regional waste management system by paying attention to the results of the incoming input in the form of waste and the processes that occur so that later it will cause output how much and what or it can be said to know the scene in the field.

Comparative Study of The Life Cycle Assessment Model for Agricultural Solid Waste Management: Case Studies in East Ungaran and West Ungaran Districts, Semarang

The increase in population affects the production of available food; this also increases agricultural activities and the waste produced. Improper agricultural waste management harms the environment, so a good agricultural waste management strategy is needed. The areas that are the object of study are East Ungaran and West Ungaran Districts, Semarang Regency. This area has great potential in the agricultural sector. This plan aims to analyze the existing conditions, volume, and mass balance of agricultural waste and their environmental impact using the life cycle assessment (LCA) and material flow analysis (MFA) methods to determine the appropriate strategy for managing agricultural solid waste. It is planned to manage agricultural solid waste using two alternative solutions, which are then compared using the LCA method using the SimaPro application and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method involving two experts in the agricultural sector. Based on the analysis, processing agricultural solid waste as bokashi fertilizer and silage livestock feed is the most suitable method and is of interest to farmers.

Combining LCA-MFA models to identify China’s plastic value chain environmental impact mitigation pathways

Characterizing material flows and environmental impacts of plastic value chain is crucial for sustainable plastic management. Here, we combine material flow analysis and life cycle assessment methods to map the flows of eight major plastics and investigate the multiple environmental impacts of China's plastic value chain. We find that packaging and textile sectors dominate plastic consumption and are responsible for the value chain environmental burdens, but with low recycling rates. Major environmental impacts are generated in plastic production and product manufacturing stages because of the consumption of coal-based feedstocks and electricity. We therefore set up six scenarios by considering carbon neutrality energy pathway, plastic recycling improvement, and technology updating, finding that the value chain environmental impact can be reduced by 14%-57% in 2060 under combined scenario. Particularly, carbon neutrality renewable energy pathway plays an important role. These findings provide valuable insights to identify key mitigation pathways for plastic value chain.