Fault Prediction Method Research Articles

A novel fault prediction modeling and simulation method for power communication networks

The power communication network is the key to ensuring the safe operation of the distribution network, and how to quickly and accurately predict faults is a challenging task, especially considering the variable topology of the distribution network. To address this issue, common faults will be modeled and simulated to predict faults in power communication systems. In this study, considering the generalized Laplacian smoothing filters and the long sequence representation capability of the Transformer, an adaptive graph encoder based on historical performance graph embedding is proposed and used for fault prediction in power communication networks. The proposed method consists of two modules: (1) To better alleviate high-frequency noise in node features, a carefully designed Laplacian smoothing filter is first applied. (2) Adopting a transformer-based adaptive encoder to iteratively enhance filtering characteristics for better node embedding. The performance of the proposed method in fault prediction tasks is tested using a dataset collected from a real power communication network. The experimental results show that the proposed method consistently outperforms other fault prediction methods in terms of performance.

Method of fault prediction for avionics components based on stacking regression

Abstract As avionics systems become increasingly complex, traditional fault prediction methods are no longer sufficient to meet modern demands. This paper introduces four advanced fault prediction methods for avionics components, utilising a multi-step prediction strategy combined with a stacking regressor. By selecting various standard regression models as base regressors, these base regressors are first trained on the original data, and their predictions are subsequently used as input features for training a meta-regressor. Additionally, the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) algorithm is employed for hyperparameter optimisation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed stacking regression methods exhibit superior accuracy in fault prediction compared to traditional single-model approaches.

Optimized GRU‐Based Voltage Fault Prediction Method for Lithium‐Ion Battery Packs in Real‐Life

ABSTRACTVarious failures of lithium‐ion batteries threaten the safety and performance of the battery system. Due to the insignificant anomalies and the nonlinear time‐varying properties of the cell, current methods for identifying the diverse faults in battery packs suffer from low accuracy and an inability to precisely determine the type of fault, a method has been proposed that utilizes the Random Forest algorithm (RF) to select key factors influencing voltage, optimizes model parameters through an Improved Dung Beetle Optimization algorithm (IDBO), employs a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) integrated with a channel and time attention mechanism (CTAM) for voltage fault prediction, and the consistency of the voltage is measured by quantifying the predicted voltage curve based on the curve Manhattan distance, a hybrid model for predicting voltage faults in lithium‐ion battery packs has been constructed, ultimately identifying faults such as overvoltage, undervoltage, and inconsistency of the battery pack. The experimental results show that the hybrid model proposed in this study outperforms the state‐of‐the‐art techniques such as informer and transformer in voltage fault prediction by achieving MAE, MSE, and MAPE metrics of 0.009272%, 0.000222%, and 0.246%, respectively, and maintains high efficiency in terms of the number of parameters and runtime.

Identification of feature selection techniques for software defect prediction by using BCF-WASPAS methodology based on Einstein operators

PurposeThis research focuses on a very important research question of determining the appropriate feature selection methods for software defect prediction. The study is centered on the creation of a new method that would enable the identification of both positive and negative selection criteria and the handling of ambiguous information in the decision-making process.Design/methodology/approachTo do so, we develop an improved method by extending the WASPAS assessment in the context of bipolar complex fuzzy sets, which leads to the bipolar complex fuzzy WASPAS method. The approach also uses Einstein operators to increase the accuracy of aggregation and manage complicated decision-making parameters. The methodology is designed for the processing of multi-criteria decision-making problems where criteria have positive and negative polarities as well as other ambiguous information.FindingsIt is also shown that the proposed methodology outperforms the traditional weighted sum or product models when assessing feature selection methods. The incorporation of bipolar complex fuzzy sets with WASPAS improves the assessment of selection criteria by taking into account both positive and negative aspects of the criteria, which contributes to more accurate feature selection for software defect prediction. We investigate a case study related to the identification of feature selection techniques for software defect prediction by using the bipolar complex fuzzy WASPAS methodology. We compare the proposed methodology with certain prevailing ones to reveal the supremacy and the requirements of the proposed theory.Originality/valueThis research offers the first integrated framework for handling bipolarity and uncertainty in feature selection for software defect prediction. The combination of Einstein operators with bipolar complex fuzzy sets improves the DM process, which will be useful for software engineers and help them select the best feature selection techniques. This work also helps to enhance the overall performance of software defect prediction systems.

Early Fault Diagnosis and Prediction of Marine Large-Capacity Batteries Based on Real Data

The inconsistency of battery voltages in all-electric ships is a significant issue for electric vehicle battery systems, leading to numerous safety concerns during vessel operation. Therefore, timely fault diagnosis and accurate fault prediction are crucial for the safe operation of ships. This study examines the fault alarm system of marine battery management systems in conjunction with the unique operating conditions of ships, focusing on the system’s latency. To facilitate prompt fault detection, a fault diagnosis method based on the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm is proposed, utilizing the voltage data of battery clusters. Results indicate that the DBSCAN clustering algorithm demonstrates superior effectiveness and accuracy in identifying irregular battery clusters. Furthermore, the fault prediction method based on the iTransformer model is introduced to forecast variations in battery cluster voltages. Experimental findings suggest that this model can effectively predict consistency faults and over-/under-voltage conditions based on battery cluster voltage values and corresponding fault thresholds.

Online monitoring and fault early warning prediction method for the operational status of steam turbine sliding pin systems

Abstract In modern power systems, ensuring the safe and reliable operation of the sliding pin system in large steam turbine generator sets is crucial. However, the measurable parameters in the current distributed control system are insufficient for fault early detection of the sliding pin system’s operational state. Additionally, there is a lack of relevant research in this area at present. This paper utilizes a typical 300 MW-class unit as a case study. By analyzing the operational mechanism and fault modes of the sliding pin system, a method for online monitoring of its operational status based on cylinder expansion measurement parameters is proposed. Based on this foundation, taking the advantage of long short-term memory (LSTM) network to effectively extract features from univariate time series, and integrating improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) for automatic hyperparameter optimization, a multi-step prediction model and fault prediction method for the operational status of sliding pin systems based on IPSO-LSTM is designed. Test results based on various performance evaluation metrics indicate that the IPSO-LSTM algorithm significantly enhances the prediction model’s accuracy. Specifically, the TVIWAC-PSO model, which varies the inertia weight (TVIW) and acceleration coefficients simultaneously in the PSO algorithm, optimizes by enhancing global search in the early stages and emphasizing local search in the later stages of iteration. Furthermore, TVIWAC-PSO demonstrates superior performance in optimizing the hyperparameters of the LSTM algorithm. Finally, based on the gap standard between sliding pins and keyway in the actual operating procedures of the unit, combined with the low-pressure cylinder and rotor expansion difference operation standard, thresholds for anomaly detection and early fault prediction of the sliding pin system’s operational status are provided. This study holds significant engineering application value.

A heterogeneous transfer learning method for fault prediction of railway track circuit

Prediction and identification of faults in track circuits are crucial for improving the safety and efficiency of railway transportation. However, due to the absence of real data, the task of track circuit fault prediction through deep learning methods facing significant challenges. This paper proposed a novel heterogeneous transfer learning network structure for track circuit deep learning fault prediction. The proposed transfer learning network can reduce the reliance on track circuit data in the process of deep learning models training by utilizing public datasets from other similar tasks. In this paper, an index describing the data distribution is used to demonstrate the transferability between heterogeneous data firstly. Then a heterogeneous transfer learning network structure is proposed to help the deep learning model training on the track circuit fault prediction task. Finally, the effect of transfer learning is comprehensively examined. The simulation experimental results show that the proposed heterogeneous transfer learning network structure can transfer useful knowledge in other similar fields for tasks in track circuit fault prediction, and the resulting model can distinguish between nine different classes with a high accuracy level over 99% on the test dataset while reducing the amount of required training data to 10% of the traditional training methods.

A Brief Analysis of the Progress and Trends in Software Defect Prediction Methods

Software defect detection is particularly important for modern society, as it is a crucial step in ensuring the quality and reliability of software systems. With the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI), research in software defect detection has evolved from traditional methods to more complex approaches that utilize deep learning and large language models (LLMs). The advent of LLMs has fundamentally changed the paradigm of software development and defect detection, bringing new challenges and confusion to the field of software defect prediction research. To address these issues, we compare software defect detection methods based on traditional techniques, deep learning approaches, and LLMs through a literature review. We analyze the changes brought about by the introduction of LLMs to software development and propose new insights. Additionally, we examine the progress and trends in software defect prediction to provide inspiration for subsequent research.

Wind Turbine Operation Status Monitoring and Fault Prediction Methods Based on Sensing Data and Big Bang–Big Crunch Algorithm

As wind power generation technology rapidly advances, the threat of wind turbine failures to the secure and stable operation of the power grid is gaining increasing attention. Real-time monitoring of operation status and predicting potential failures in wind turbines are indispensable requirements for the safe integration of wind power. In this paper, a model based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), whose parameters are optimized by the Big Bang–Big Crunch algorithm, is constructed to improve the monitoring of wind turbine operation status and fault prediction accuracy. The research methodology consists of several key stages. Firstly, the initial wind turbine sensing data are preprocessed, utilizing factor analysis to reduce dimensionality and obtain the main influencing factors of wind turbine operation. Then, an improved failure prediction model for wind turbines, based on the least squares support vector machine, is developed using the preprocessed data. The model parameters are optimized by utilizing the Big Bang–Big Crunch optimization algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of wind turbine failures. Finally, the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method are validated through a case study conducted on a regional power grid with wind farm integration.

Fault Diagnosis Model of Hydraulic Motor Based on Fuzzy Neural Network

When the hydraulic motor fault occurs,it is not easy to be detected,and the leakage degree will gradually increase.In order toavoid bigger accidents causedby thehydraulic motor fault,the accident isexcluded in theembryonic stage,and the hydraulic motor fault prediction method based onfuzzy neural network isused topredict thehydraulic motor fault.The feature vector is output inthe global meanpooling layer,andthe feature vectormatrix between thehealth state feature vector library and the samples to be measured is constructed.The dynamic cluster graph isobtained by fuzzy clustering,so as to realize the fault diagnosis of thehydraulic motor.The results show that the accuracy of training set,verification set andtest set ishigher than99.8%.The accuracy of diagnosis classification is99.00%,which is better than othercomparison models.In this study,the number of training samples can be appropriately increased ordecreased according to thecurve complexity of the detection target,so as to improve thefeature extraction capability of the convolutional layer andincrease the classification accuracy.

Visual software defect prediction method based on improved recurrent criss-cross residual network

PurposeThis study aims to solve the problems of large training sample size, low data sample quality, low efficiency of the currently used classical model, high computational complexity of the existing concern mechanism, and high graphics processing unit (GPU) occupancy in the current visualization software defect prediction, proposing a method for software defect prediction termed recurrent criss-cross attention for weighted activation functions of recurrent SE-ResNet (RCCA-WRSR). First, following code visualization, the activation functions of the SE-ResNet model are replaced with a weighted combination of Relu and Elu to enhance model convergence. Additionally, an SE module is added before it to filter feature information, eliminating low-weight features to generate an improved residual network model, WRSR. To focus more on contextual information and establish connections between a pixel and those not in the same cross-path, the visualized red as integer, green as integer, blue as integer images are inputted into a model incorporating a fused RCCA module for defect prediction.Design/methodology/approachSoftware defect prediction based on code visualization is a new software defect prediction technology, which mainly realizes the defect prediction of code by visualizing code as image, and then applying attention mechanism to extract the features of image. However, the challenges of current visualization software defect prediction mainly include the large training sample size and low sample quality of the data, and the classical models used today are not efficient, and the existing attention mechanisms have high computational complexity and high GPU occupancy.FindingsExperimental evaluation using ten open-source Java data sets from PROMISE and five existing methods demonstrates that the proposed approach achieves an F-measure value of 0.637 in predicting 16 cross-version projects, representing a 6.1% improvement.Originality/valueRCCA-WRSR is a new visual software defect prediction based on recurrent criss-cross attention and improved residual network. This method effectively enhances the performance of software defect prediction.

Artificial intelligence enhanced fault prediction with industrial incomplete information

With the rapid advancement of sensor and information technology, fault prediction for industrial equipment has become increasingly feasible. However, accurate fault prediction is heavily dependent on the integrity of monitoring data. Unfortunately, limitations in data collection and storage technologies often result in incomplete and missing data, leading to decreased accuracy or even failure of predictive models. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel data-enhanced fault prediction method leveraging artificial intelligence, which stands out for its ability to handle incomplete information effectively. The innovation lies in the first-time division of incomplete information into incomplete variables and missing variables, each addressed with tailored AI-based solutions. Furthermore, the method integrates complete data with uncertain information through a dynamic Bayesian network, pioneering a new approach to compensating for data integrity issues and minimizing prediction errors. The enhanced data is then utilized for long-term performance predictions, setting a new standard in fault prediction accuracy. The developed model exhibits exceptional adaptability by integrating advanced techniques such as parameter uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and dynamic range analysis. These enhancements significantly boost the precision and comprehensiveness of fault predictions. The method’s feasibility and superiority are demonstrated through the prediction of CO2 corrosion in subsea pipelines, proving that the proposed approach significantly improves fault prediction accuracy even under incomplete information conditions.

Hardware Failure Prediction Modes Powered by Artificial Intelligence

With the increase of the system scale and complexity of modern computer systems and electronic equipment, the physical components (hardware) in computer or electronic equipment are damaged, the performance is reduced or the normal operation of computer and electronic systems is greatly increased due to various reasons. Detecting and predicting hardware faults in time is the key to ensure system stability and reliability. Hardware failure prediction technology based on artificial intelligence (AI) can effectively predict potential hardware failures by analyzing historical data, monitoring equipment operating status in real time, and reducing system downtime and maintenance costs. This paper reviews the current hardware fault prediction methods based on artificial intelligence, discusses the common algorithms, technical challenges, and application scenarios, and looks forward to the future development direction of this field.

A Software Defect Prediction Method That Simultaneously Addresses Class Overlap and Noise Issues after Oversampling

A Software Defect Prediction Method That Simultaneously Addresses Class Overlap and Noise Issues after Oversampling

Study on Fault Prediction Method of Hydropower Equipment Based on Equipment Health State Detection

Abstract With the continuous development of China’s electric power industry, the installed capacity of power plants is increasing, and hydropower units are developing in the direction of large capacity and high efficiency. As the complexity of the equipment is getting higher and higher, different equipment are more and more different, showing different characteristics when faults occur, which puts forward higher requirements for the safe and stable operation of hydropower units. In response to the above problems, this paper develops a set of human-machine closed-loop remote fault diagnosis reasoning machine system with self-learning function and a set of equipment health state monitoring and prediction system. This remote fault diagnosis system reasoning machine system can reduce the cost of unit equipment fault diagnosis, improve the diagnosis efficiency, and ensure the safe, stable and economic operation of the unit.

Pantograph fault prediction of urban rail transit vehicles based on edge feature extraction and detection

Nowadays, as an indispensable part of urban infrastructure, urban rail transit (URT) vehicles have also developed rapidly. A large amount of manpower, material resources, and financial resources need to be invested in the construction process of URT. For URT vehicles, research on more accurate fault prediction methods can save a lot of maintenance costs and improve the reliability of URT construction. As an important electrical equipment for urban rail transit vehicles to obtain electric energy from the catenary, the operation of rail transit vehicles puts forward higher performance requirements for the pantograph. For solving the problems of low accuracy of fault prediction, over reliance on practical experience and high cost of fault prediction in the application of traditional URT vehicle pantograph fault prediction model. Combining sensor network and artificial intelligence algorithm, this paper analyzed the traditional rail transit vehicle pantograph fault prediction model, and verified it through comparative experiments. Through the comparative analysis of the experimental results, this paper can draw a conclusion that compared with the traditional rail transit vehicle pantograph fault prediction model, the rail transit vehicle pantograph fault prediction model has higher fault prediction accuracy, less model response time, lower risk of pantograph failure, higher model application satisfaction, and the accuracy of fault prediction increased by about 6.6%. The rail transit vehicle pantograph fault prediction model can effectively improve the accuracy of vehicle pantograph fault prediction, which can greatly promote the safety of URT and promote the intelligent process of URT.

A code change‐oriented approach to just‐in‐time defect prediction with multiple input semantic fusion

AbstractRecent research found that fine‐tuning pre‐trained models is superior to training models from scratch in just‐in‐time (JIT) defect prediction. However, existing approaches using pre‐trained models have their limitations. First, the input length is constrained by the pre‐trained models.Secondly, the inputs are change‐agnostic.To address these limitations, we propose JIT‐Block, a JIT defect prediction method that combines multiple input semantics using changed block as the fundamental unit. We restructure the JIT‐Defects4J dataset used in previous research. We then conducted a comprehensive comparison using eleven performance metrics, including both effort‐aware and effort‐agnostic measures, against six state‐of‐the‐art baseline models. The results demonstrate that on the JIT defect prediction task, our approach outperforms the baseline models in all six metrics, showing improvements ranging from 1.5% to 800% in effort‐agnostic metrics and 0.3% to 57% in effort‐aware metrics. For the JIT defect code line localization task, our approach outperforms the baseline models in three out of five metrics, showing improvements of 11% to 140%.

A Fault Prediction Method for Secondary Electric Power Equipment Based on Multi-Round Undersampling Random Forest

Abstract It is necessary to predict the fault states of the large number of power secondary equipment using intelligent methods. However, when compared to large-scale equipment, the number of negative samples representing faulty equipment is significantly smaller than the number of positive samples representing normal equipment. This leads to a pronounced imbalance between positive and negative samples in the task of fault prediction. In this paper, we propose a multi-round undersampling random forest method to predict the fault situations of secondary electric power equipment. First, we collect data from historical power system logs to build the dataset for power secondary equipment and preprocess it. The undersampling method is utilized to generate a balanced dataset of secondary power equipment with a smaller sample size. We generate multiple balanced datasets through rounds of random undersampling without replacement to train multiple random forest models. Subsequently, we predict fault situations in secondary electric power equipment through comprehensive decision-making by these multiple random forest models. We employ a real dataset from the power system of Chongqing, China, for experimental validation. The results demonstrate the superiority of our method over other machine learning prediction models used for comparison.

Research on Fault Prediction Method for Electric Multiple Unit Gearbox Based on Gated Recurrent Unit–Hidden Markov Model

Due to the limited availability of fault samples and the expensive nature of marking fault samples in Electric Multiple Unit (EMU) gearbox monitoring data, a study was conducted to simulate the degradation process of key components in the CRH5 gearbox using rigid–flexible coupling dynamics. Vibration acceleration data from the simulation were utilized to create a six-dimensional hybrid feature domain representing the degradation process. By leveraging the capabilities of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for handling hidden transitive probabilities in temporal data and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for addressing long-distance and high-dependence temporal data, a GRU-HMM fault prediction model was developed. This model was validated using monitoring data and the six-dimensional hybrid feature domain from the CRH5 gearbox and compared against actual maintenance records. The findings indicated that the GRU-HMM fault prediction model can effectively recognize the degradation patterns of multiple components, offering higher accuracy in fault prediction compared to traditional models. These research outcomes are expected to optimize EMU maintenance schedules based on usage conditions, enhance EMU utilization rates, and reduce operational and maintenance costs, thereby providing valuable theoretical support.

Fusion of Multi-Layer Attention Mechanisms and CNN-LSTM for Fault Prediction in Marine Diesel Engines

Timely and effective maintenance is imperative to minimize operational disruptions and ensure the reliability of marine vessels. However, given the low early warning rates and poor adaptability under complex conditions of previous data-driven fault prediction methods, this paper presents a hybrid deep learning model based on multi-layer attention mechanisms for predicting faults in a marine diesel engine. Specifically, this hybrid model first introduces a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and self-attention to extract local features from multi-feature input sequences. Then, we utilize Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and multi-head attention to capture global correlations across time steps. Finally, the hybrid deep learning model is integrated with the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) to monitor the operational status and predict potential faults in the marine diesel engine. We conducted extensive evaluations using real datasets under three operating conditions. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, ablation studies and visualizations highlight the importance of fusing multi-layer attention, and the results under various operating conditions and application scenarios demonstrate that this method possesses predictive accuracy and broad applicability. Hence, this approach can provide decision support for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of marine mechanical systems.