The Huaihe River Basin is particularly vulnerable to climate change. This paper first evaluated interpolation methods for different meteorological elements, followed by an assessment of the simulation performance of various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for these elements. We then applied the Improved Quantile Mapping (IQM) method for bias correction of the GCMs. Finally, we analyzed the characteristics of future climate change in the Huaihe River Basin. The results show the following: (1) The radial basis function interpolation method is the most effective for rainfall, while Kriging performs best for air temperature. (2) The HadGEM2-AO model provides the most accurate rainfall simulations, MIROC-ESM best simulates maximum air temperature, and HadGEM2-ES is most effective for minimum air temperature. (3) The IQM method outperforms other approaches for bias correction of climate variables in the basin. (4) Future projections show an increase in both rainfall and air temperature, with more pronounced rises under the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfall and maximum air temperature show considerable spatial variation across emission scenarios, while minimum air temperature consistently exhibits an upward trend.
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