Methanol Price Research Articles

Renewable methanol production from green hydrogen and captured CO2: A techno-economic assessment

This paper aims to present a pre-feasibility study of a power-to-fuel plant configuration designed for the production of 500 kg/h of renewable methanol (e-methanol) from green hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide. Hydrogen is obtained by water electrolysis employing the overproduction of renewable electricity. Carbon dioxide is assumed to be separated from the flue gas of a conventional power station by means of an amine-based CO2 absorption system. A comprehensive process model has been developed with the support of Aspen Plus tool to simulate all the plant sections and the overall system. After the process optimization, a detailed economic analysis – based on capital and operating costs derived from commercial-scale experience and assuming a 20-year lifetime – has been performed to calculate a levelized cost of methanol (LCoM) of 960 €/t (about 175 €/MWh). The analysis confirms that, today, the technology is still not competitive from the economic point of view, being LCoM more than double than the current methanol price in the international market (450 €/t). However, it indicates that the process is expected to become competitive in a mid-term future, as a consequence of the new European policies. The study also reveals that LCoM is mainly affected by the electricity price and the electrolyser capital cost, as well as the capacity factor of the plant.

Techno-Economic Assessment of the Integration of Direct Air Capture and the Production of Solar Fuels

Non-abatable emissions are one of the decarbonization challenges that could be addressed with carbon-neutral fuels. One promising production pathway is the direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide, followed by a solar thermochemical cycle and liquid fuel synthesis. In this study, we explore different combinations of these technologies to produce methanol from an economic perspective in order to determine the most efficient one. For this purpose, a model is built and simulated in Aspen Plus®, and a solar field is designed and sized with HFLCAL®. The inherent dynamics of solar irradiation were considered with the meteorological data from Meteonorm® at the chosen location (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia). Four different integration strategies are assessed by determining the minimum selling price of methanol for each technology combination. These values were compared against a baseline with no synergies between the DAC and the solar fuels production. The results show that the most economical methanol is produced with a central low-temperature DAC unit that consumes the low-quality waste heat of the downstream process. Additionally, it is determined with a sensitivity analysis that the optimal annual production of methanol is 11.8 kt/y for a solar field with a design thermal output of 280 MW.

Investment decision on carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies—A real option model based on technology learning effect

Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) technologies are crucial to achieving carbon neutrality targets. However, assessing the investment value and timing comprehensively is still challenging for CCU due to uncertainties in technologies and markets from a long-term perspective. In order to assist decision making, this work develops a new real option investment decision model based on the technology learning effect. In particular, the component-based two-factor technology learning curve approach is proposed to predict the future costs for each component. To verify this model, it is used to analyze two CCU processes, including the enhanced oil recovery using CO2 (CO2-EOR) and methanol synthesis from captured CO2 (CO2-MET). Results show that the proposed model can effectively predict the technology cost curve and find the optimal investment decision for the two applications considering various uncertainties. It is also found that the oil price at least needs to be over 80 $/barrel for CO2-EOR and the methanol price needs to be over 580 $/ton for CO2-MET respectively to trigger immediate investment. Comparatively, investing in CO2-MET projects is more economical than in CO2-EOR projects.

Optimal design and evaluation of electrochemical CO2 reduction system with renewable energy generation using two-stage stochastic programming

Electrochemical CO2 reduction (ECO2R) is being considered as a potential solution to the problem of managing excess electricity from renewable energy generation. In this study, ECO2R system coupled with a renewable energy generation system is designed and evaluated for commercial applicability. Mathematical models of the various components of an ECO2R system leading to methanol as the product are developed and compared with experimental data. A two-stage stochastic programming model that minimizes the overall cost of the coupled system is formulated to determine the optimal capacity of the system under uncertain weather conditions. The optimal design is carried out for two regions with different weather patterns: Denver, USA and Munich, Germany. The result of the optimized design shows that the ECO2R system is economically feasible at a methanol price of 550 USD/ton. In addition, the two-stage stochastic programming approach proves to be an effective way to address uncertain weather conditions in the design.

Using Hydrogen Reactors to Improve the Diesel Engine Performance

This work is aimed at solving the problem of converting diesel power drives to diesel–hydrogen fuels, which are more environmentally friendly and less expensive alternatives to diesel fuel. The method of increasing the energy efficiency of diesel fuels has been improved. The thermochemical essence of using methanol as an alternative fuel to increase energy efficiency based on the provisions of thermotechnics is considered. Alternative methanol fuel has been chosen as the initial product for the hydrogen conversion process, and its energy value, cost, and temperature conditions have been taken into account. Calculations showed that the caloric effect from the combustion of the converted mixture of hydrogen H2 and carbon monoxide CO exceeds the effect from the combustion of the same amount of methanol fuel. Engine power and fuel energy were increased due to the thermochemical regeneration of engine exhaust gas heat. An experimental setup was created to study the operation of a converted diesel engine on diesel–hydrogen products. Experimental studies of power and environmental parameters of a diesel engine converted for diesel–hydrogen products were performed. The studies showed that the conversion of diesel engines to operate using diesel–hydrogen products is technically feasible. A reduction in energy consumption was accompanied by an improvement in the environmental performance of the diesel–hydrogen engine working together with a chemical methanol conversion thermoreactor. The formation of carbon monoxide occurred in the range of 52–62%; nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gases decreased by 53–60% according to the crankshaft speed and loading on the experimental engine. In addition, soot emissions were reduced by 17% for the engine fueled with the diesel–hydrogen fuel. The conversion of diesel engines for diesel–hydrogen products is very profitable because the price of methanol is, on average, 10–20% of the cost of petroleum fuel.

Comparative Techno-economic analysis of methanol production via carbon dioxide reforming of landfill gas using a highly active and stable Nickel-based catalyst

The economic viability of a methanol production process through carbon dioxide reforming of landfill gas using a newly developed nickel-based catalyst was assessed. The development of the catalyst and techno-economic analysis of the designed process were targeted. The nickel-based catalyst showed a highly active and stable performance even at an extremely high gas hourly space velocity of 1,620,000 mL g−1h−1. The high activity of the catalyst was due to the abundant nickel active sites (metallic nickel particles) on its surface. Coke formation was suppressed by the small particle size of nickel and relatively high oxygen storage capacity, resulting in a stable catalytic performance. In the process simulation, the methanol production system based on the nickel-based catalyst (new process) leveraged its smaller reformer size and more efficient heat utilization compared to those of a previously reported system based on a rhodium-based catalyst (base process) because of its higher gas hourly space velocity. The process simulation was conducted based on the gas hourly space velocity of 312,346 mL g−1h−1. The unit production costs of methanol were reduced from 184.0 $ ton−1 in the base process to 117.5 $ ton−1 in the new process. In addition, profitability analysis based on the global market price of methanol demonstrated that the new process exhibited a positive net present value, indicating economic feasibility, whereas the base process was not viable in the worst-case scenario (lowest market price of methanol).

Techno-environmental-economic assessment on municipal solid waste to methanol coupling with/without solid oxygen electrolysis cell unit

Integrating municipal solid waste (MSW) gasification with renewable energy to synthesize methanol shows great potential in alleviating the dependence on fossil energy and reducing the negative environmental impact of increasing MSW production. In this study, three technological processes including MSW-to-methanol integrated with carbon capture and storage (MTMC), MSW-to-methanol integrated with solid oxygen electrolysis cell unit (MTMS) and MSW incineration to power (MTP) are compared from the perspective of techno-environmental-economic performance. Results show that MTMS process owns the maximum exergy efficiency (60.8%), followed by MTMC (41.5%) and MTP (18.9%). In terms of global warming potential (GWP), MTP process has the worst environmental performance with 19,164.84 kgCO2eq/h. The economic analysis shows that MTMS process owns the highest value of levelized profit of MSW (LPOM) with 38.64 USD/t under the current market conditions. In addition, comparative analysis shows the production cost of methanol (PCOM) of MTMC and MTMS routes is 406.09 USD/t and 355.89 USD/t, respectively, which are economically competitive compared with the coal / biomass / CO2 hydrogenation to methanol route. Sensitivity analysis shows that MTMS process processes its advantage on economic performance only if the methanol price is higher than 350 USD/t and photovoltaic on-grid tariff is lower than 0.055 USD/kWh.

Economic accounting and high-tech strategy for sustainable production: A case study of methanol production from CO2 hydrogenation

The global proposal of ‘carbon neutrality’ puts forward higher innovation demand for the cleaner energy production. The potential for employing “green” methanol produced from hydrogen obtained by water electrolysis and collected CO2 from a gas-fired power station is examined in this study.The consumption of electricity for renewable methanol production is 1.045 times as much as that for traditional methanol production, the traditional method consumes 2.5 times as much thermal energy as the renewable methanol process. In addition, the total direct and indirect CO2 emissions from renewable methanol production are almost one-third of the emissions from the traditional method. The total cost of setting up the units of a renewable and a traditional methanol production plant with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons is $50.1 million and $46.806 million in this study case, respectively. If the methanol price hits $310 per ton, renewable methanol production will be highly economically viable. But if electricity and gas prices rise or CO2 emission tax is imposed, renewable and conventional methanol production plants will lose their economic feasibility. Therefore, in order to deal with this risk, the establishment of special high-tech parks is of great significance to reduce costs and stabilize the sustainable development of relevant industries.

Solvay invests in DMC Biotechnologies to advance bio-based innovation

One of the main goals of the green chemistry is to develop sustainable and less hazardous chemical processes and products. Dimethyl carbonate (DMC) is attracting attention due to the wide variety of applications and the possibility of producing it from carbon dioxide. In this work, the DMC production process via urea has been optimized. Two main sections can be distinguished: the synthesis of urea and the production of DMC. An equation based approach is used to model the system. The DMC production from renewable ammonia/methanol/CO2 presents a promising production cost, around 520 €/t. The production of urea alone has also been evaluated in this work. A sensitivity analysis is carried out showing the influence of the methanol price in the DMC cost and the ammonia price in the urea cost. A simplified sustainability index is used to evaluate the environmental performance of urea/DMC production.

THE POTENTIAL OF METHANOL AS AN ALTERNATIVE MARINE FUEL FOR INDONESIAN DOMESTIC SHIPPING

This analysis aims to provide insight and to explore the future usage of methanol as an alternative marine fuel for domestic ships in Indonesia. An overview of potential application, analysis of resources availability, and stakeholder readiness on the topic are provided; related challenges are also identified and further examined. The potential performance of methanol as a fuel is discussed and evaluated via two different perspectives (the ship-owner perspective and the government one) through case studies of two passenger ships owned by the shipping company Pelayaran Indonesia (PELNI): MV. Labobar and MV. Gunung Dempo. As ship-owners tend to look very closely at the economic aspects, a feasibility study is performed by developing a combinatorial scenario approach based on the combination of economic measures of merit (NPV and payback period) along with a technical scenario (main-pilot fuel set-up); the variables included in the calculation are: ship age, ship productivity, and macro-economy conditions. Regarding the government perspective, the main issues are environmental protection and policy compliance. These issues are evaluated by examining six emission types (NOx, SOx, CO2, CH4, N2O, and PM). Additionally, since there is a trade-off situation in government subsidies between the government and ship-owner interests, an optimisation and sensitivity analysis is performed by utilizing a combinatorial scenario model to determine optimum methanol price and external variables influencing the decision to support further use of methanol in the Indonesian market. An important finding was that Indonesia has certain advantages/drives to introduce methanol as a marine fuel. However, methanol competitiveness is mainly dependent on ship productivity and the price difference between methanol and marine diesel oil (MDO). Additionally, policy analysis (through an optimisation approach) could be one of the government options in order to determine the optimum condition in establishing methanol as a marine fuel. Finally, short, medium, and long term recommendations are also provided as the basis for future consideration.

Study on coal to methanol of Arutmin coal

The Indonesian government has encouraged coal mining companies to expand into coal downstream industries. In response to this policy, PT. Arutmin Indonesia has conducted a pre-feasibility study on the construction of a coal-to-methanol plant. The plant was located in the Pulau Laut Utara Coal Terminal (NPLCT). The plant is designed to produce 3.0 million tons of methanol/year. The raw material is supplied from the Sarongga coal mine, about 5 km away from NPLCT. The coal-to-methanol process was simulated using ChemCad to solve chemical and energy problems. Based on heat & material balance simulation results, the plant requires coal of 6.0 million tons/year as a raw material. Air Product technology was chosen for coal gasification and Davy Technology for methanol synthesis. Air product gasifier requires lower oxygen to produce syngas than other technologies, thereby reducing oxygen production costs. The plant needs an investment cost of USD 3.0 billion. With the assumption of a methanol price of 311 USD/ton and 20 years of tax holiday incentives, the financial analysis results show that the construction of coal-to-methanol plant is financially feasible with an NPV value of 289.7 million USD and an IRR of 13.35%.

Comprehensive analysis of rural heating by methanol heating stove: Economy, emissions, and energy consumption

Coal-fired heating, mainly used in North China, has caused serious environmental problems. Schemes to replace coal have been established, but they are not suitable for all scenarios. This paper proposes a heating scheme that uses a methanol heating stove (MHS) to meet the demand for clean, low-cost rural heating. The economy, emissions, and energy consumption of the MHS were analyzed. The scheme was compared with five common rural heating methods. The effects of the methanol price, power grid transformation, and gas pipeline construction on the annual cost of each heating scheme were investigated using a theoretical model. The MHS emitted 66 % less CO2 and 95 % less SO2 and NOx and consumed 54 % less standard coal than bulk coal heating stoves. The low electricity supply required to vaporize methanol contributed to the cost and emission reduction. Methanol price fluctuations warrant government subsidies to incentivize the implementation of the scheme. For increased adoption, we recommend that the MHS be used in areas with low population densities and methanol prices. This approach can therefore be an ideal substitute for “coal-to-electricity” and “coal-to-gas” methods in areas that lack access to power or gas supplies and can replace air-source heat pumps in severe cold zones.

Coal Pricing in China: Is It a Bit Too Crude?

China is a global leader in methanol production volume, while coal is a major feedstock. The country also has the world’s largest commercial coal-to-methanol operations. Coal-based methanol is used widely within China and is a competitive substitute for gasoline. Owing to this, it is plausible that the price of coal may be linked to international crude oil prices, with methanol prices serving as the connecting channel. We add supporting evidence to a recently emerging area of literature and observe statistically significant relationships among the three prices, and, therefore, the influence from international crude oil and methanol prices on the coal price determination in China. This paper investigates the relationships among these prices for the period from January 2010 to December 2019 through spectral Granger causality analysis, alongside more traditional cointegration tests to develop a comprehensive picture of causal association between the price series in both the frequency and time domain. Cointegration is found in our tri-variate system while the frequency domain Granger causality tests reveal the long-run causality in all directions except from crude oil to methanol, thus, emphasizing the structure of coal price dependence. According to the generalized impulse response functions, the coal price reacts positively to shocks in crude oil prices.

Modelling and Cost Estimation for Conversion of Green Methanol to Renewable Liquid Transport Fuels via Olefin Oligomerisation

The ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets for the transport sector set in the Paris Climate Agreement require low-carbon energy solutions that can be commissioned rapidly. The production of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel from renewable methanol using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) and Mobil’s Olefins to Gasoline and Distillate (MOGD) syntheses was investigated in this study via process simulation and economic analysis. The current work presents a process simulation model comprising liquid fuel production and heat integration. According to the economic analysis, the total cost of production was found to be 3409 €/tfuels (273 €/MWhLHV), corresponding to a renewable methanol price of 963 €/t (174 €/MWhLHV). The calculated fuel price is considerably higher than the current cost of fossil fuels and biofuel blending components. The price of renewable methanol, which is largely dictated by the cost of electrolytic hydrogen and renewable electricity, was found to be the most significant factor affecting the profitability of the MTO-MOGD plant. To reduce the price of renewable fuels and make them economically viable, it is recommended that the EU’s sustainable transport policies are enacted to allow flexible and practical solutions to reduce transport-related emissions within the member states.

Techno-Economic and Carbon Footprint Analyses of a Coke Oven Gas Reuse Process for Methanol Production

This paper focuses on the best way to produce methanol by Coke Oven Gas (COG) conversion and by carbon dioxide capture. The COG, produced in steelworks and coking plants, is an interesting source of hydrogen that can be used to hydrogenate carbon dioxide, recovered from flue gases, into methanol. The architecture of the reuse process is developed and the different process units are compared by considering a hierarchical decomposition. Two case studies are selected, process units are modelled, and flowsheets are simulated using computer-aided design software. A factorial techno-economic analysis is performed together with a preliminary carbon balance to evaluate the economic reliability and the environmental sustainability of the proposed solutions. The production costs of methanol are equal to 228 and 268 €/ton for process configurations involving, respectively, a combined methane reforming of COG and a direct COG separation to recover hydrogen. This cost is slightly higher than the current price of methanol on the market (about 204 €/ton for a process located in the USA in 2013). Besides, the second case study shows an interesting reduction of the carbon footprint with respect to reference scenarios. The carbon dioxide capture from flue gases together with COG utilization can lead to a competitive and sustainable methanol production process depending partly on a carbon tax.

Impact of the forecast price on economic results for methanol production from olive waste

The development of circular economies due to the limitation of natural resources is becoming a common strategy of paramount importance among different countries. In Spain, given the strategic nature of its olive industry, trying to value one of its main residuals (olive pomace) alone or together with other residues through its chemical transformation in methanol is a promising research line. One of the key variables that would make the investment advisable or not is the future value of the methanol price. However, most of the literature do not consider its future price volatility on the economic evaluation of the chemical processes. This work bridges that gap by proposing three econometric models based on Unobserved Components to forecast the methanol price over the life cycle plant. Those probabilistic forecasts feed a Monte Carlo simulation that provides an exhaustive investment risk assessment in terms of Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return and Value at Risk metrics. The results showed the relationship between forecasting models and the investment profitability with an average Internal Rate of Return ranging from 23% to 31%. Additionally, the previous analysis was completed by adding other variables subject to uncertainty (olive pomace feed, capital investment, feedstock price, labor costs and discount rate). In this case, assuming a potential underestimation error up to 100% of the capital cost, the probability of obtaining a profitable investment was significantly reduced ranging the Value at Risk from 48% to 98%.

Increasing Parameters of Diesel Engines by Their Transformation for Methanol Conversion Products

The work is aimed at solving the problem of converting existing diesel power drives to gas fuels, which are cheaper and more environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel fuel. Method of energy efficiency increasing of alternative fuels has been improved. Thermochemical essence of energy increasing of source fuel based on the provisions of thermodynamics is considered. Alternative methanol fuel has been chosen as initial product for conversion process and its cost, energy value, and temperature conditions have been taken into account. Calculations showed that the thermal effect from combustion of the converted mixture of CO and H2 exceeds the effect from combustion of the same amount of non-convertible methanol. Fuel energy and engine power were increased due to thermochemical regeneration of exhaust gas heat. An experimental setup was created to study the operation of a converted diesel engine on methanol conversion products. Experimental studies of power, economic, and environmental parameters of converted diesel engine for methanol conversion products were performed. Experimental studies have shown that conversion of diesel engines to work using methanol conversion products is technically reasonable. Fuel consumption reduction was accompanied by environmental performance improvement of the diesel engine working together with a thermochemical methanol conversion reactor. Formation of nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gases decreased in the range of 22–35%, and carbon monoxide occurred in the range of 0–24% according to the crankshaft speed and loading on the engine. Conversion of diesel engines for methanol conversion products is very profitable, because the price of methanol is, on average, 10–20% of the cost of diesel fuel.

Technoeconomic and Life Cycle Analysis of Synthetic Methanol Production from Hydrogen and Industrial Byproduct CO2.

CO2 capture and utilization provides an alternative pathway for low-carbon hydrocarbon production. Given the ample supply of high-purity CO2 emitted from ethanol and ammonia plants, this study conducted technoeconomic analysis and environmental life cycle analysis of several systems: integrated methanol-ethanol coproduction, integrated methanol-ammonia coproduction, and stand-alone methanol production systems, using CO2 feedstock from ethanol plants, ammonia plants, and general market CO2 supply. The cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas emissions of methanol produced from the stand-alone methanol, integrated methanol-ethanol, and integrated methanol-ammonia systems are 13.6, 37.9, and 84.6 g CO2-equiv/MJ, respectively, compared to 91.5 g CO2-equiv/MJ of conventional methanol produced from natural gas. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of methanol ($0.61-0.64/kg) is 61-68% higher than the average market methanol price of $0.38/kg, when using a Department of Energy target renewable hydrogen production price of $2.0/kg. The methanol price increases to $1.24-1.28/kg when the hydrogen price is $5.0/kg. Without CO2 abatement credits, the H2 price needs to be within $0.77-0.95/kg for the MFSP of methanol to equal the average methanol market price. With a CO2 credit of $35/MT according to tax credit per metric ton of CO2 captured and used, the methanol price is reduced to $0.56-0.59/kg.

Methanol production via integrated methane reforming and chemical looping combustion: Process simulation and techno-economic assessment

In this research, a novel technology is proposed that combines chemical looping combustion and methane reforming in order to convert CO2 to value added chemicals. The stoichiometric number is improved via adding assisted steam and utilizing pressure swing adsorption unit. The process simulation is conducted utilizing Aspen plus-V10 simulation software. The new built-in model featured by AspenTech, dubbed Fluidbed, in Aspen Plus is employed to simulate the CLC section. In Aspen Plus flowsheet environment, a hierarchal approach is considered in that the main flowsheet is divided into 5 hierarchy models or sub flowsheets. The process simulation results display that the overall conversions of CH4 and CO2 via this process are 97 % and 87 %, respectively. The heat integration results depict that 138.7 MW heat energy can be saved in the process. The CO2 emission of the whole process per methanol production is 0.1 tCO2/tMe. The estimated capital expenditure, and operating expenditure are US$ 509 million and US$ 159 million/yr, respectively. A discounted cash flow model combined with sensitivity analyses showed that a breakeven point could be reached with a methanol price of US$ 242/tonne. Net present value, internal rate of return, and pay out time are evaluated based on DCF results.

A detailed MILP formulation for the optimal design of advanced biofuel supply chains

The optimal design of a biomass supply chain is a complex problem, which must take into account multiple interrelated factors (i.e the spatial distribution of the network nodes, the efficient planning of logistics activities, etc.). Mixed Integer Linear Programming has proven to be an effective mathematical tool for the optimization of the design and the management strategy of Advanced Biofuel Supply Chains (ABSC). This work presents a MILP formulation of the economical optimization of ABSC design, comprising the definition of the associated weekly management plan. A general modeling approach is proposed with a network structure comprising two intermediate echelons (storage and conversion facilities) and accounts for train and truck freight transport. The model is declined for the case of a multi-feedstock ABSC for green methanol production tested on the Italian case study. Residual biomass feedstocks considered are woodchips from primary forestry residues, grape pomace, and exhausted olive pomace. The calculated cost of methanol is equal to 418.7 €/t with conversion facility cost accounting for 50% of the fuel cost share while transportation and storage costs for around 15%. When considering only woodchips the price of methanol increases to 433.4 €/t outlining the advantages of multi-feedstock approach.