Meteorological Trends Research Articles

Meteorological trends (1991–2004) at Arctic Station, Central West Greenland (69°15'N) in a 130 years perspective

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(1):45–55, 2006 Meteorological data from Arctic Station (69°15'N, 53°31'W) located on Disko Island (West Greenland) has been analysed for the period 1991–2004 and used to describe the general climate at Disko and to evaluate meteorological trends. Parameters include daily observations of snow cover, sea ice cover and bihourly logged air and ground temperatures, wind regime, pressure, precipitation and solar radiation. Markedly changes can be noted for the study period, including increasing mean annual air temperatures on the order of 0.4° C per year and 50% decrease in sea ice cover. Changes are mainly noted for the winter period and correlate significantly with the NAO-index. But also the summer period has been affected shown as increasing thawing depths and an increase in the growing season. In addition, data has been correlated to the longest record available from Greenland at Ilulissat/Jakobshavn (since 1873). Due to a high correlation between mean monthly air temperatures at the two stations (1991–2004) trends in air temperatures observed at Disko are evaluated in a 130 years perspective. It is concluded that climate changes the last decade are dramatic but that similar changes in air temperatures have occurred previous within the last 130 years.

Yield Forecasting for Olive Trees: A New Approach in a Historical Series (Umbria, Central Italy)

In recent years, the relationship between flowering and fruit production was studied and evaluated in several wind‐pollinated species. In olive (Olea europaea L.), the pollen‐monitoring technique was introduced to determine pollen indexes as indicators of flowering, evaluating in some cases the predictive role of the variable. Recently, to investigate the reproductive efficiency, the Pollen Index (calculated during the entire flowering period) was replaced by the pollen emissions during the effective pollination period (EPP). In this study, in particular, an EPP elaborated (EPPe) value was derived from the EPP values and the average values of the meteorological variables. The regression analysis, considering winter chill accumulation, summer sums of minimum temperatures, and the EPPe, confirmed the strong relationship among meteorological variables, pollen emission, and final production in our study areas. This study has shown the need to use pollen data obtained from aerobiological monitoring in harvest‐forecasting models in anemophilous plants such as olive. In particular, in the statistical models, pollen provides a synthesis of the historical information of the entire biological‐reproductive cycle of the plant while meteorological trends interpret the incidental phenomena.

Trend in high tropospheric ozone levels. Application to paris monitoring sites

This article describes the extreme value analysis of tropospheric ozone level exceedances collected at seven monitoring sites in the Paris metropolitan area during May–September over the 14-year period 1988–2001. The purpose of the study is to establish whether observed trends over time in ozone exceedances of a high threshold are real or if they are the result of meteorological changes affecting the conditions under which ozone is generated. A non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), with parameters depending on meteorological covariates, temporal trend and sites factor, is used to model regionally the exceedance times and sizes of daily maxima of ozone over a high threshold. We highlight the importance of non-linear methods to detect the non-linearities. *E-mail: lise.bellanger@math.univ.nantes.fr

Large Antarctic ozone loss foreseen

The ozone “hole” above Antarctica in late September and early October could be among the biggest on record, scientists with the Australian Antarctic Division and the Bureau of Meteorology predicted on 21 August. The scientists have found colder than usual atmospheric temperatures present, which contribute to ozone loss.Australian Antarctic Division atmospheric scientist Andrew Klekociuk said the current meteorological trends are similar to those in 2000, a year when the ozone hole was of record size and covered an area about three times that of Australia. The first signs of cooling of the lower stratosphere were detected by lidar and balloon measurements at the Australian Antarctic Davis Station about 6 weeks earlier than during 2001 and 2002, he said. These cooling signs included the early detection of polar stratospheric clouds.

Variability of total ozone due to the NAO as represented in two different model systems

To explain regional trends and long time variability of ozone the understanding and quantie cation of dynamical mechanisms ine uencing the zonal asymmetry of ozone is essential. Therefore we assess here the relationship between total ozone variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), one of the dominant modes of variability in the European sector using two different model systems in conjunction with the same simplie ed ozone chemistry. One model is the Met Ofe ce Unie ed Model, which is a comprehensive general circulation model forced by prescribed sea-surface temperatures only. The other model is the chemistry-transport model SLIMCAT, which is driven by meteorological observations and therefore includes observed meteorological trends. The simplie ed ozone chemistry is based on the Cariolle scheme with an additional parameterization of polar ozone loss, but with no allowance for changing chlorine or aerosol levels. It is shown that the NAO signal in ozone during mid-winter is well represented in both model systems. Geopotential height correlations are used to explain the spatial pattern. It is demonstrated that composites of total ozone derived from the model integrations are capable of capturing the observed spatial characteristics as seen in TOMS data. Implications are drawn for NAO induced long time variability/regional trends of ozone. Zusammenfassung

Storms from the sun: the emerging science of space weather

From the casual conversation starter to the 24-hour cable channels and Web sites devoted exclusively to the subject, everyone talks about weather. There's even weather in space and it's causing major upsets to our modern technological world. Space weather is all around us. There are no nightly news reports on space weather (yet), but we're rapidly developing the tools necessary to measure and observe trends in cosmic meteorology. New probes are going on-line that help us monitor the weather taking place miles above the Earth. But why does space weather matter? It doesn't affect whether we bring an umbrella to work or require us to monitor early school closings. It's far, far away and of little concern to us ...right? March 13, 1989. The Department of Defense tracking system that keeps tabs on 8,000 objects orbiting Earth suddenly loses track of 1,300 of them. In New Jersey, a $10 million transformer is burned up by a surge of extra current in the power lines. Shocks to a power station in Quebec leave 6 million people without electricity. New England power stations struggle to keep their power grid up. Listeners tuning in to their local stations in Minnesota hear the broadcasts of the California Highway Patrol. Residents of Florida, Mexico, and the Grand Cayman Islands see glowing curtains of light in the sky. All of these bizarre, and seemingly unconnected, events were caused by a storm on the Sun and a fire in the sky. A series of solar flares and explosions had launched bolts of hot, electrified gas at the Earth and stirred up the second largest magnetic storm in recorded history. Before rockets and radio and the advent of other modern devices, we probably would never have noticed the effects of this space storm. But in today's electrically powered, space-faring world, the greatest space storm of the twenty-second solar maximum rang like a wake-up call. And we are now in the midst of another solar maximum, the effects of which are expected to be felt all the way through the year 2004. Storms from the Sun explores the emerging physical science of space weather and traces its increasing impact on a society that relies on space-based technologies. Authors Carlowicz and Lopez explain what space weather really means to us down here, and what it may mean for future explorations and colonization of distant worlds. By translating the findings of NASA and other top scientists into fascinating and accessible descriptions of the latest discoveries, we are privy to some of the most closely held secrets that the solar terrestrial system has to offer.

Meteorological monitoring and climatological trends in Italian forest ecosystems

In the framework of long term ecological research on Italian forests, this paper describes meteorological monitoring in Italy, analysing meteorological trends in the CONECOFOR areas, paying particular attention to temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and windiness. The correlation between geomorphologic and climatic conditions is also examined and the areas characterised climatically through the Thornthwaite model. The analysis is based on measurements performed for the last five years at Open Field and In the Plot stations. This study may help to understand the effects of a microclimate, taking into account its possible impact on crown condition and forest growth.

Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.

The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic.

Gross alpha, gross beta activities and [formula omitted] concentrations in surface air: analysis of their variations and prediction model

Measurements of gross α, gross β activities and cosmogenic beryllium-7 ( 7 Be ) concentrations were made each week during the years 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1995 from samples of atmospheric aerosols filtered from the air. The data are sufficiently numerous to allow us to examine variations in time and through these measurements we have established several parameters that should be of importance in understanding any trends in radionuclides concentrations in the atmosphere. The weekly variation is discussed in relation to various meteorological factors. Seasonal variation of 7 Be concentration in the atmosphere was measured and there was a tendency for a maximum in the spring and summer and a minimum in fall and winter. It can be said for this radionuclide that our results showed a prevailing influence of weekly average of the daily maximum temperature. In this work, the data on concentrations and meteorological data have been made use of in order to determine a model for gross α, gross β and 7 Be , respectively. The model can be used to estimate that part of the trend in gross α and gross β activities and in 7 Be levels that can be accounted for by trends in local meteorology. A satisfactory agreement between the results of the model and the measurements was highlighted.

Comparison of genetic algorithm systems with neural network and statistical techniques for analysis of cloud structures in midlatitude storm systems

Cloud analyses provide information which is vital to the detection, understanding and prediction of meteorological trends and environmental changes. This paper compares statistical, neural network and genetic algorithm methods for recognition and tracking of midlatitude storm clouds in sequences of low-resolution cloud-top pressure data sets. Regions of interest are identified and tracked from one image frame to the next consecutive frame in an eight-frame sequence. Classification techniques are used to determine the relationships between regions of interest in consecutive time frames. A genetic algorithm procedure is then used to revise classifier outputs to ensure that consistency constraints are not violated.

Accounting for meteorological effects in measuring urban ozone levels and trends

Observed ozone concentrations are valuable indicators of possible health and environmental impacts. However, they are also used to monitor changes and trends in the sources of ozone and of its precursors, and for this purpose the influence of meteorological variables is a confounding factor. This paper examines ozone concentrations and meteorology in the Chicago area. The data are described using least absolute deviations and local regression. The key relationships observed in these analyses are then used to construct a nonlinear regression model relating ozone to meteorology. The model can be used to estimate that part of the trend in ozone levels that cannot be accounted for by trends in meteorology, and to ‘adjust’ observed ozone concentrations for anomalous weather conditions.

Trends in meteorology

Trends in meteorology

Present and future trends in dynamical meteorology

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological SocietyVolume 99, Issue 421 p. 407-423 Article Present and future trends in dynamical meteorology R. P. Pearce, R. P. PearceSearch for more papers by this author R. P. Pearce, R. P. PearceSearch for more papers by this author First published: July 1973 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709942102Citations: 2AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume99, Issue421July 1973Pages 407-423 RelatedInformation

Present and future trends in dynamical meteorology

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological SocietyVolume 99, Issue 421 p. 407-423 Article Present and future trends in dynamical meteorology R. P. Pearce, R. P. PearceSearch for more papers by this author R. P. Pearce, R. P. PearceSearch for more papers by this author First published: July 1973 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709942102Citations: 2AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume99, Issue421July 1973Pages 407-423 RelatedInformation

Variation of Rainfall Over South China Through the Wet Season

Five-day means show that over south China there are certain persistent variations in the march of rainfall during the wet season (March–November). These are explained in terms of seasonal meteorological trends in the surrounding regions. The view is advanced, supported by an ancient Chinese farmers' calendar, that the rainfall pattern of south China has changed little in the past 2000 years.

The use of aerological observations in weather‐forecasting

During the last fifteen years the so‐called polar‐front or air‐mass analysis methods of weather‐map analysis and weather‐forecasting have come into general recognition in all the leading meteorological services. The new air‐mass and front concepts are finding a place in the meteorological literature and synoptic practice, in more or less modified form, in every country in which there is maintained any contact with modern meteorological trends. At the same time it is certainly true that the technique of application of these methods to the daily synoptic routine, in the preparation of weather‐forecasts, still falls far short of the maximum possible effectiveness. This is particularly true of the acquisition and utilization of observations from upper levels of the atmosphere for the purpose of giving our surface weather‐map analysis a third dimension.