Meteorological Society Research Articles

50th anniversary of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in the UK

50th anniversary of Numerical Weather Prediction (<scp>NWP</scp>) in the <scp>UK</scp>

In this issue ofWeather

Weather was first published seventy years ago this month, the Royal Meteorological Society and its members clear that, in the year following the Second World War, there was a new era in the provision of – and interest in – weather services to customers. The Society and the Editorial Board of this journal wish it a very happy birthday! In our first paper (on p. 108), Dennis Wheeler focuses on the extreme disturbance of the weather in Newcastle-upon-Tyne in 1816, part of a cool year across the globe that was the result of the eruption of Mt Tambora in Indonesia the previous year. It may come as a surprise to some that the injection of aerosols and ash into the tropical atmosphere, halfway across the world could have a significant effect in North East England, but the signal for this teleconnection was particularly evident 200 years ago, when it was said that it was a ‘year without a summer’. On p. 118, we move on to the ‘Analysis of rainfall events over peninsular Malaysia’ by Ren Jie Chin and his co-authors. Around the world, it is increasingly evident that we need to know the likely maximum rainfall in a day or number of days, in order to be prepared for its effects on the population and infrastructure. This paper presents the results of a study over more than 40 years using a newly developed ‘event mining tool’. Finally, we move on to a report of a ‘Violent thunderstorm in Toulouse – 13 June 1854’ on p. 123, translated from an article in French in the Chronique de Jersey by Frank Le Blancq, who also comments on the serious effects of the event. News of loss of life and damage due to the weather would only have been available from the newspapers 162 years ago and reports such as this were a spur in the development of meteorological services, many of which were founded around this time.

In Memoriam: Edgar L. Andreas, 1946-2015

On a day early last autumn, Ed Andreas went out, as was his wont, for a run from his home in Lebanon, New Hampshire. While on this run, Ed, a contributor to this volume and a collaborator and friend of many of us in the air-sea exchange community, suffered a cardiac event, from which he succumbed on 30 September 2015.Mention of Ed Andreas will immediately bring to many readers’ minds his protracted effort to incrementally improve the existing parameterizations of the sea surface spray flux (e.g., Andreas et al. 1995; Andreas 1998; Andreas 2001; Andreas et al. 2015) and his recent efforts to combine this modeling with concepts from atmospheric chemistry to assess the potential significance of spray-mediated air-sea gas flux (Andreas et al., this volume). Since 2007 Ed worked on these topics from his home, which served as his outpost of NorthWest Research Associates. But it should be noted that many of his earlier papers dealt with the Arctic marine boundary layer, and sea-air fluxes at high latitudes (e.g., Andreas et al. 1979; Makshtas et al. 1986), reflecting his almost 30-year long tenure (1978-2006) at the U.S. Army's Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, located just down the road from Lebanon, in Hanover, New Hampshire.Having been born in Sterling, Illinois, Ed went off to nearby Knox College for his B.S. in Physics, and then on to Michigan State University for an M.S. in Physics, before deserting the Midwest for Corvallis, where he earned his Ph.D. in Physical Oceanography at Oregon State University in 1977. While Ed certainly became an active member of our global scientific community, he never lost his Midwestern virtues. He could write well, and received numerous awards for his technical communication, but he was often refreshingly candid in speech. Ed would on occasion provide honest “unvarnished” critiques of his and his collaborators’ efforts, but he did not hesitate to praise others’ efforts in print. Ed was a principled person, and this was manifest in his professional dealings with others. Working on a manuscript with Ed was always, as it should be, an ultimately enlightening intellectual exercise.His approach to any task combined both the rigor of the physicist with the practicality of an engineer, and as a result of his efficient nature, he has left our air-sea interaction community with a trove of no less than 140 valuable scientific publications, with others yet to appear.Ed Andreas was a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and of the Royal Meteorological Society (UK). He was recipient of the Antarctica Service Medal, and of numerous performance awards from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.This brief tribute just touches upon Ed Andreas as a scientist. But Ed was a truly multi-faceted individual, as is apparent to any reader of the posthumous biographical sketch that appeared in his local newspaper (Jurgens 2015), which you may want to access. We would like to acknowledge with gratitude the biographical materials we received from Ed's immediate family, and from his former associates at NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. in Redmond, Washington.

A climatology of Australian heat low events

Heat lows are a persistent feature over northern Australia between the Austral late spring and early autumn. The first ever multi-decadal climatology of individual Australian heat lows is presented here, based on an automated detection scheme applied to 35 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Australian heat lows occur most frequently over the northwest of the continent and exhibit a pronounced seasonal cycle in both their frequency and intensity. Heat lows occur in response to surface heating and are most common over Australia during December and January when they can be detected on 95% of days. These months are also when the heat lows are most intense in terms of the central pressure and low-level cyclonic circulation. A composite heat low based on all heat low detections enables the three-dimensional structure of the heat lows to be analysed. The shallow nature of the heat low is clearly evident, and the structure is consistent with heat low observations in other regions of the globe. The similarity between the results presented here and the results of previous modelling studies as well as possible links between Australian heat lows and local weather is discussed. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society

Cirrus and the Earth system

Cirrus and the Earth system

British Exploring Society: 2014 expedition to Ladakh in the Indian Himalayas

British Exploring Society: 2014 expedition to Ladakh in the Indian Himalayas

Mountain hydrometeorology

Mountain hydrometeorology

Retraction

International Journal of ClimatologyVolume 34, Issue 12 p. 3480-3480 Retraction statementFree Access Retraction This article retracts the following: Retracted: Recent drought events over the central Indian region: Pacific Ocean origin and insights from moisture budgets K. P. Sooraj, Kyong-Hwan Seo, Bin Wang, June-Yi Lee, Volume 33Issue 13International Journal of Climatology pages: 2781-2798 First Published online: December 3, 2012 First published: 22 August 2014 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4142AboutSectionsPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Retraction: ‘Recent drought events over the central Indian region: Pacific Ocean origin and insights from moisture budgets’ by Sooraj KP, Seo K-H, Wang B, Lee J-Y. 2013. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 2781–2798, doi:10.1002/joc.3627. The above article by Sooraj et al. (2013), published online on 3 December 2012 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors, the journal Editor in Chief, Radan Huth, the Royal Meteorological Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to significant overlap and similarity with the article by Prasanna and Annamalai (2012) published in Journal of Climate. References Prasanna V, Annamalai H. 2012. Moist dynamics of extended monsoon breaks over South Asia. J. Climate 25: 3810– 3831, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00459.1. Sooraj KP, Seo K-H, Wang B, Lee J-Y. 2013. Recent drought events over the central Indian region: Pacific Ocean origin and insights from moisture budgets. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 2781– 2798, doi: 10.1002/joc.3627. Volume34, Issue12October 2014Pages 3480-3480 ReferencesRelatedInformation

Albedo decline on Greenland's Mittivakkat Gletscher in a warming climate

Albedo is one of the parameters that govern energy availability for snow and ice surface ablation, and subsequently the surface mass balance conditions of temperate glaciers and ice caps (GIC). Here, we document snow and ice albedo changes for Mittivakkat Gletscher (MG) in Southeast Greenland (2000-2013), for which an 18-year record of direct surface mass balance measurements exists. The MODerate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS MCD43A3) albedo product was used to study MG's snow and ice albedo, evaluated against supraglacial automatic weather station (AWS) observations. In general, by the end of the mass balance year (EBY), MG's AWS observed bare ice albedo reached ~0.3 only just exceeding values observed for proglacial bedrock (~0.2). The analysis reveals negative mean trends in the MODIS-derived MG EBY albedo for the period 2000-2013 with a significant decline in mean glacier-wide albedo of 0.10. The greatest decline in albedo, of 0.25, occurred near the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), an important surface cover and albedo transitional zone. The EBY albedo correlates significantly with ELA and net winter and summer glacier mass balance records. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

RMetS Special Interest Group Meeting: high resolution data assimilation

AbstractData assimilation (DA) systems are evolving to meet the demands of convection‐permitting models in the field of weather forecasting. On 19 April 2013 a special interest group meeting of the Royal Meteorological Society brought together UK researchers looking at different aspects of the data assimilation problem at high resolution, from theory to applications, and researchers creating our future high resolution observational networks. The meeting was chaired by Dr Sarah Dance of the University of Reading and Dr Cristina Charlton‐Perez from the MetOffice@Reading.The purpose of the meeting was to help define the current state of high resolution data assimilation in the UK. The workshop assembled three main types of scientists: observational network specialists, operational numerical weather prediction researchers and those developing the fundamental mathematical theory behind data assimilation and the underlying models. These three working areas are intrinsically linked; therefore, a holistic view must be taken when discussing the potential to make advances in high resolution data assimilation.

The art and science of forensic meteorology

When weather factors into a legal dispute, meteorologists use eyewitness accounts, troves of atmospheric data, and simulated reenactments to figure out what went awry.

Knowing weather in place: the Helm Wind of Cross Fell

The Helm Wind of Cross Fell, North Pennines, is England's only named wind. As a product of the particular landscape found at Cross Fell, the Helm is a true local wind, and a phenomenon that has come to assume great cultural as well as environmental significance in the region and beyond. In this paper we draw on material from county histories, newspaper archives, and documents relating to investigations of the Helm Wind that were conducted by the Royal Meteorological Society between 1884 and 1889, and by British climatologist Gordon Manley (1908–1980), between 1937 and 1939, to document attempts to observe, measure, understand and explain this local wind over a period of 200 years. We show how different ways of knowing the Helm relate to contemporary practices of meteorology, highlighting the shifts that took place in terms of what constituted credible meteorological observation. We also acknowledge the overlapping nature of these ways of knowing and the persistence of multiple testimonies about the Helm and its effects.

Editorial: Hubert Lamb Centenary Special Issue

On 6–7 September 2013 the centenary of the birth of the climatologist Professor Hubert Horace Lamb was commemorated by a meeting held at the University of East Anglia. The event was attended by around 50 delegates – several of whom had worked with Hubert – along with his widow Moira Lamb and two generations of their descendant family. This special issue of Weather contains adapted versions of four of the eight papers presented at the meeting. This special issue is not without precedent: following Hubert Lamb's death in 1997, the July 1998 issue of Weather commemorated Hubert's achievements with a series of papers related to various subjects covered in his work. The papers focused on the ongoing research in climatology inspired by Hubert's pioneering studies. Over the last 16 years, the science has developed rapidly, and this special edition will review a selection of the many advances that have been made in the intervening years. The papers present the ‘state of the art’ of certain key subjects that guided his research. The frequency of very severe storms (G > 50 based on the UK Jenkinson Gale Index) across the UK in each winter season (DJF) since 1900 constructed from reanalysis-derived surface pressure data. For details on the construction of the time series see http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/lwt, and for background information see the papers by Richard Cornes and Phil Jones et al. in this issue. Throughout his career, Hubert showed a high interest in climate-sensitive data from historical documentary sources, as well as in the impact of past climate variability – short-term and long-term – on human livelihood. In the third paper in this issue, Kathleen Pribyl highlights the significant advances that have been made in recent years in the field of historical climatology, with a focus on the climate of medieval England. The symposium last September brought together a variety of scientists who were influenced directly or indirectly by the work of Hubert Lamb. On behalf of the Climatic Research Unit I would like to offer my thanks to the Royal Meteorological Society and the Society's History of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Group for co-organising the meeting with the University of East Anglia, and to the Lamb family for their support of the event.

Spheroidal and spherical geopotential approximations

It is customary in atmospheric modelling to approximate the equi‐geopotential surfaces of apparent gravity as spheres, and to use spherical polar coordinates to represent the global atmosphere. However Earth's mean surface is more accurately approximated by a spheroid of revolution than by a sphere, and therefore the geopotential surfaces are better represented as spheroidal surfaces than spherical ones. Several authors have considered how to develop a spheroidal coordinate system. The keystone for this is a sufficiently accurate, yet simple and flexible, mathematical approximation of the geopotential for a spheroidal Earth. Geopotential approximation is a compromise between the extremes of being either too simple, with deficient representation of the essentials of the underlying physics, or too complicated, leading to overly complicated coordinate systems.A new spheroidal geopotential approximation is proposed herein. It is relatively simple, and analytically tractable, yet properly represents the underlying physics. Using this new approximation, a new, relatively simple, quasi‐orthogonal spheroidal coordinate system is developed. It is then straightforward to obtain the customary spherical geopotential approximation, with its associated use of spherical polar coordinates, as an asymptotic limit of this new formulation. This confirms a previous finding, obtained using a different quasi‐orthogonal coordinate system. The spheroidal geopotential approximation, and quasi‐orthogonal coordinate system, proposed herein are however much simpler, yet no less accurate. They thereby lead to a much simpler, more direct, yet equally rigorous, justification for the spherical geopotential approximation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Diagnostics of T1279 ECMWF analysis winds in the Mediterranean basin by comparison with ASCAT 12.5 km winds

This article aims to understand to what extent the winds fields from an advanced numerical weather prediction system and from a satellite scatterometer describe the same spatial and temporal features of the wind in the Mediterranean Sea. We investigated wind fields for the period February 2010 to February 2012 using the ASCAT scatterometer data with 12.5 km wind vector cells and the analysis wind fields from the ECMWF T1279 global model. The ASCAT–ECMWF mean relative bias and centred root mean square deviation of wind speed, normalized by scatterometer wind speed wsc, Δws/wsc and , have been found to be 7 and 23%. An interesting result is the identification of dependence of both Δws/wsc and on the distance from the coast, indicating the coastal areas as the main source of discrepancy between the two datasets. From 50 to 200 km away from coast, decreases from 40 to 25% and Δws/wsc from 8 to 4%. These results gain more importance considering that the Mediterranean Sea is essentially a coastal sea (50% of its surface lies within 50 km from the coast). Both Δws and have been found to depend nonlinearly on the wind speed. The seasonal variation of Δws/wsc and shows that they are in phase opposition, with higher values of during the warm season (April to October). It is hypothesized that local coastal circulations like land/sea breezes could explain the observed mismatch between model and observations. The reported findings emphasize a common feature of the present atmospheric models forecasting winds over regional basins like the Mediterranean. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

New insights into the history of the Campbell‐Stokes sunshine recorder

This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation project NUCLIERSOL (CGL2010-18546). The first author was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Secretaria per a Universitats i Recerca del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement, de la Generalitat de Catalunya i del programa Cofund de les Accions Marie Curie del 7e Programa marc d’R+D de la Unio Europea (2011 BP-B 00078). The fourth author was given a grant by the Juan de la Cierva programme (JCI-2011-10263) of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. The fifth author was given a grant by the FPU programme (FPU AP2010-0917) of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. Dimming/brightening research at ETH was supported by the National Centre for Competence in Climate Research (NCCR Climate) of the Swiss National Science Foundation. We wish to thank Jim Glass from the SRSM and Ron Steenvoorden for their useful advice regarding Campbell’s biography, which is summarized in the first section of this paper. Equally, we also wish to thank Christoph Schaer and Gerald Stanhill for their continuous support of our work. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

Society news

WeatherVolume 68, Issue 12 p. 334-334 Society news Society news Liz Bentley, Liz Bentley Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological SocietySearch for more papers by this author Liz Bentley, Liz Bentley Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological SocietySearch for more papers by this author First published: 27 November 2013 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2033Read the full textAboutRelatedInformationPDFPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessClose modalShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume68, Issue12December 2013Pages 334-334 RelatedInformation RecommendedROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NEWS; FORTHCOMING MEETINGSWeatherROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NEWS; FORTHCOMING MEETINGSWeatherROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NEWS: FORTHCOMING MEETINGSWeatherROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NEWS: FORTHCOMING MEETINGSWeatherProceedings at the meetings of the society. Joint meeting of the royal meteorological society and the american meteorological society in Toronto, August 28–29, 1939Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

On the cause of offence

We continue our celebration of the Snow bicentenary in this issue of the IJE by reprinting John Snow’s paper ‘On the supposed influence of offensive trades on mortality’ originally published in the Lancet in 1856. Of the pieces included in the celebration this is the only one actually written by Snow himself. In 1855 Snow had stirred up controversy and opprobrium, in particular from Thomas Wakley, founder and editor of the Lancet, when he appeared as an expert witness in front of the parliamentary committee assessing the proposed Public Health and Nuisances Removal bills. Snow’s main argument was this: if the offensive trades were indeed harmful to the public health, rates of disease and death among those who worked in them would be high and, as far as he had been able to learn, this was not the case. In his commentary, David Lilienfeld speculates on Snow’s reasons for publishing the paper. Was it a response to Wakley’s stinging attacks the year before? As Jan Vandenbroucke points out, the arguments as presented by Snow to the parliamentary committee do indeed come across as somewhat dogmatic. Maybe this was Snow’s attempt to justify that dogmatism. We will never know for sure. Certainly Snow’s oral-faecal theory of the transmission of cholera proved to be correct; his assumption that the oral-faecal theory would apply to all infectious diseases did not. Wakley’s jibes at members of what he jeeringly calls the ‘Offensive Trades Association’ or the ‘Offensive Association’, ’These unsavoury persons, trembling for the conservation of their right to fatten upon the injury of their neighbours’, display a deep contempt. However, his most vitriolic comments are reserved for Snow. In his own time, Snow was best known for his contribution to anaesthesia. His deep understanding of the diffusion of gases combined with his own theory that cholera was transmitted by the oralfaecal route made it impossible for him to accept the dominant theory that epidemic diseases were caused by miasmas emanating from decaying animal or vegetable matter and spread through the atmosphere. In his editorial attack, reprinted as a Diversion in the current issue of IJE, it seems to be Snow’s refutation of this dominant paradigm that most infuriates Wakley as he targets Snow’s lack of scientific evidence and dogmatism. However, Wakley himself makes a poor case for the miasma theory, his evidence resting on his own observation that ‘failing strength, flabby muscles, pallid cheeks, lassitude of body, and torpidity of mind’ are most frequently the result of noxious gases from leaking drains, and on his assertion that ‘there is hardly a practitioner of experience and average powers of observation who does not daily observe the same thing’. More considered criticism of Snow’s paper can be found in the other Diversion in this issue: a letter to the Lancet by John Tripe, who had been appointed Medical Officer of Health for Hackney in London the year before. Tripe takes issue with Snow on two counts; one is the denominator he uses, which is based on the 1851 census and does not allow for population growth, and the other continues the debate, initiated by Snow, on what we now know as the healthy worker effect. Snow uses the lower mortality rate among workers in the offensive trades to argue against their detrimental effect on health. Careful to state that his comments are in no way intended to denigrate Snow’s work, Tripe argues the case for reverse causality; that people can only engage in the physically demanding work of the offensive trades while they are fit enough and leave to swell the mortality rates of other trades when they are not. Tripe was an active Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society from 1856 until his death and the Society’s President in 1871. His obituary lauds his contribution to the relationship between meteorology and health, disease and death. However, it seems that Tripe was far from a confirmed miasmatist. During discussion of a paper in the society’s Quarterly Journal, Tripe is reported as stating ‘that the spreading of the disease [cholera] does not always arise from atmospheric conditions, but that to a great extent it spreads from person to person.’ It would be easy to dismiss Wakley merely as an editor who misused his position to vent his spleen on those whose views he held in contempt. Snow’s obituary in the Lancet on the 26 June 1858 was shockingly brief. Devoid of any mention of his work on the transmission of cholera, the Lancet in April 2013 felt the need ‘after an unduly prolonged period of reflection’ to correct the perception that it may have Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

The role of East Coast Lows on rainfall patterns and inter‐annual variability across the East Coast of Australia

AbstractThe Eastern Seaboard (ESB) of Australia is a distinct climate entity, with little relationship between rainfall in this area and the major drivers of rainfall elsewhere in Australia such as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One potential cause is the influence of East Coast Lows (ECLs), major coastal weather systems that can produce a significant proportion of rainfall in this region. In this article, a novel approach is used to separate the ECL component of rainfall on the ESB from other sources of rainfall. This method is used to quantify the influence of ECLs on rainfall in this region, with ECLs responsible for 23% of rainfall in the ESB and 40% of widespread heavy rain events. While ECLs are particularly important in the southern ESB and during the cool season (May–October) they can occur in any month, particularly in northern areas of the ESB. ECLs are identified as a significant factor in the weakened relationship between ENSO and rainfall in the ESB, particularly in southern parts; however, these are not the only factor, with local topographic effects also likely to play a role. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

The effect of driving climate data on the simulated terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes over North America

AbstractDynamic vegetation models provide the ability to simulate terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes and a useful tool to study how these are affected by climate variability and climate change. At the continental scale, the spatial distribution of climate, in particular temperature and precipitation, strongly determines surface vegetation characteristics. Model validation exercises typically consist of driving a model with observation‐based climate data and then comparing simulated quantities with their observation‐based counterparts. However, observation‐based datasets themselves may not necessarily be consistent with each other. Here, we compare simulated terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes over North America with observation‐based estimates. Simulations are performed using the dynamic vegetation model Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) coupled to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) when driven with two reanalysis‐based climate datasets. The driving ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA40) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I data (NCEP) show differences when compared to each other, as well as when compared to the observation‐based climate research unit (CRU) data. Most simulated carbon pools and fluxes show important differences, particularly over eastern North America, primarily due to differences in precipitation and temperature in the two reanalysis. However, despite very different gross fluxes, the model yields fairly similar estimates of the net atmosphere‐land CO2 flux when driven with the two forcing datasets. The ERA40 driven simulation produces terrestrial pools and fluxes that compare better with observation‐based estimates. These simulations do not take into account land use change or nitrogen deposition, both of which have been shown to enhance the land carbon sink over North America. The simulated sink of 0.5 Pg C year−1 during the 1980s and 1990s is therefore lower than inversion‐based estimates. The analysis of spatial distribution of trends in simulated carbon pools and fluxes shows that the simulated carbon sink is driven primarily by NPP enhancements over eastern United States. © 2013 The Authors and Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.