Meteor Radar Research Articles

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Meteor Speed and Arrival Angle Observed by Mengcheng Meteor Radar

AbstractMeteor speed is crucial in identifying key astronomical aspects of the meteoroid environment, including the influx of meteoric material and the distribution of meteoric radiants. This study investigates diurnal and seasonal variations of meteor speed from April 2014 to December 2023 observed by the Mengcheng meteor radar (MCMR; 33.4°N, 116.3°E). In addition to the expected diurnal variation of meteor speed, azimuth peak, zenith peak, and the azimuthal direction of maximum meteor speed due to the Earth's rotation, where the meteor speed peaks northward in the local morning and shifts clockwise, we find that the meteor speed distribution resembles a superposition of two Gaussian distributions, with the lower (higher) distribution mainly ranging from 20 to 40 (45–65) km/s. The two speed peaks are estimated using a double‐Gaussian fitting approach. In terms of seasonal variation, we find that (a) the low‐speed peak indicates a semi‐annual variation cycle, with maxima in June–July and December–January, and minima in February and August; (b) the high‐speed peak indicates an annual variation cycle, with maxima in September–December and minima in March. There is also a correlation between the seasonal variations in the meteor speed peaks and the occurrence of meteor showers. Statistical analysis provides a map of seasonal variations in the intensity, duration, and timing of meteor shower activities, which is supplemental to previous shorter‐duration studies using backscatter meteor radar observations. We also find notable shower events where the meteor counts exceed 45%–97% of the background count on corresponding event dates and speeds.

Short-term prediction of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over coastal Peru using a hybrid model

The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are transitional regions between the lower and upper atmosphere. The MLT dynamics can be investigated using wind measurements conducted with meteor radars. Predicting MLT winds could help forecast ionospheric parameters, which has many implications for global communications and geo-location applications. Several literature sources have developed and compared predictive models for wind speed estimation. However, in recent years, hybrid models have been developed that significantly improve the accuracy of the estimates. These integrate time series decomposition and machine learning techniques to achieve more accurate short-term predictions. This research evaluates a hybrid model that is capable of making a short-term prediction of the horizontal winds between 80 and 95 km altitudes on the coast of Peru at two locations: Lima (12°S, 77°W) and Piura (5°S, 80°W). The model takes a window of 56 data points as input (corresponding to 7 days) and predicts 16 data points as output (corresponding to 2 days). First, the missing data problem was analyzed using the Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM). Then, variational mode decomposition (VMD) separates the components that dominate the winds. Each resulting component is processed separately in a Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network whose hyperparameters were optimized using the Optuna tool. Then, the final prediction is the sum of the predicted components. The efficiency of the hybrid model is evaluated at different altitudes using the root mean square error (RMSE) and Spearman’s correlation (r). The hybrid model performed better compared to two other models: the persistence model and the dominant harmonics model. The RMSE ranged from 10.79 to 27.04 m s−1, and the correlation ranged from 0.55 to 0.94. In addition, it is observed that the prediction quality decreases as the prediction time increases. The RMSE at the first step reached 6.04 m s−1 with a correlation of 0.99, while at the sixteenth step, the RMSE increased up to 30.84 m s−1 with a correlation of 0.5.

Observational Evidence for the Neutral Wind Responses in the Mid‐Latitude Lower Thermosphere to the Strong Geomagnetic Activity

AbstractBased on two meteor radars in mid‐latitudes of China, the mid‐latitude lower thermospheric neutral wind responses to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day great storm are investigated. The AE and PCN indices presented the similar quasi‐5‐hour oscillations during the storm. Interestingly, the analogous and close‐correlated storm‐time quasi‐5‐hour oscillations were also observed in both the meridional wind differences at 90–102 km derived from meteor radars. The meridional wind disturbances in the lower thermosphere also showed the extension toward the lower latitudes. It has been found that the enhanced equatorward wind disturbances at 250 km estimated by the Horizontal Wind Model‐14 and Fabry‐Perot Interferometer (FPI) emerged accordingly with the increases of AE and PCN with a time delay. And the enhancements of equatorward (poleward) wind disturbances at 250 km were accompanied by the increments of equatorward (poleward) wind disturbances at 94 km with a time lag of a few hours. It is thus suggested that the multiple intensified Joule heating events with quasi‐5‐hour time intervals were triggered by the successive substorm expansions during the storm. Then the Joule heating events led to the vertical wind and temperature disturbances in the mid‐latitude lower thermosphere via disturbing the thermospheric meridional circulation, which consequently induced the quasi‐5‐hour meridional wind disturbances therein.

The Climatology of Gravity Waves over the Low-Latitude Region Estimated by Multiple Meteor Radars

Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) can strongly modulate middle atmospheric circulation and can be a significant factor for the coupling between the lower atmosphere and the middle atmosphere. GWs are difficult to resolve in global atmospheric models due to their small scale; thus, GW observations play an important role in middle atmospheric studies. The climatology of GW variance and momentum in the low-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region are revealed using multiple meteor radars, which are located at Kunming (25.6°N, 103.8°E), Sanya (18.4°N, 109.6°E), and Fuke (19.5°N, 109.1°E). The climatology and longitudinal variations in GW momentum fluxes and variance over the low-latitude region are reported. The GWs show strong seasonal variations and can greatly control the mesospheric horizontal winds via modulation of the quasi-geostrophic balance and momentum deposition. The different GW activities between Kunming and Sanya/Fuke are possibly consistent with the unique prevailing surface winds over Kunming and the convective system over the Tibetan Plateau according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. These findings provide insight for better understanding the coupling between the troposphere and mesosphere.

Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Wind Perturbations Due To the 2022 Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Eruption as Observed by Multistatic Specular Meteor Radars

AbstractUtilizing multistatic specular meteor radar (MSMR) observations, this study delves into global aspects of wind perturbations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) from the unprecedented 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) submarine volcano. The combination of MSMR observations from different viewing angles over South America and Europe, and the decomposition of the horizontal wind in components along and transversal to the HTHH eruption's epicenter direction allow an unambiguous detection and identification of MLT perturbations related to the eruption. The performance of this decomposition is evaluated using Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere/ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X) simulations of the event. The approach shows that indeed the HTHH eruption signals are clearly identified, and other signals can be easily discarded. The winds in this decomposition display dominant Eastward soliton‐like perturbations observed as far as 25,000 km from HTHH, and propagating at 242 m/s. A weaker perturbation observed only over Europe propagates faster (but slower than 300 m/s) in the Westward direction. These results suggest that we might be observing the so‐called Pekeris mode, also consistent with the L1 pseudomode, reproduced by WACCM‐X simulations at MLT altitudes. They also rule out the previous hypothesis connecting the observations in South America to the Tsunami associated with the eruption because these perturbations are observed over Europe as well. Despite the progress, the L0 pseudomode in the MLT reproduced by WACCM‐X remains elusive to observations.

Wind comparisons between meteor radar and Doppler shifts in airglow emissions using field-widened Michelson interferometers

Wind comparisons between meteor radar and Doppler shifts in airglow emissions using field-widened Michelson interferometers

Radio meteor velocity estimation based on the Fourier transform

A technique for estimating the velocity of radio meteors is proposed. The presented method is based on the analysis of the phase of the Fourier spectra of complex amplitudes of signals reflected from meteor trails. The method is very fast compared to the Fresnel transform method, works at low signal-to-noise ratios and is automatic. Approaches for increasing the signal-to-noise ratio and criteria for rejecting the obtained estimates are proposed. An error of 1–10% was achieved, depending on the signal-to-noise ratio (from −5 dB) and the velocity of the meteor. Comparison of meteoroid velocities from Kazan Federal University meteor radar measurements with optical observations showed good agreement of estimates with a slight underestimation of 2–8%, presumably due to the neglect of deceleration.

Dissipation Rates of Mesospheric Stratified Turbulence From Multistatic Meteor‐Radar Observations

AbstractStratified turbulence (ST) has been proposed as a model for the dynamics of the mesosphere‐lower thermosphere (MLT) region. This theory postulates that for horizontal mesoscales (∼1–400 km), the kinetic energy of horizontal winds dissipates from large to small scales with an approximately mean constant rate. In this investigation, dissipation rates are quantified using meteor‐radar observations conducted in Northern Norway. The observed seasonal variability of dissipation rates exhibits maxima during the summer and winter, and minima near the equinoxes, between 80 and 95 km altitude. The results are compared with model predictions and earlier medium frequency radar, rocket, lidar, and satellite observations of MLT turbulence. The findings suggest that multi‐static meteor radar measurements of ST can provide a novel way to continuously monitor turbulent dissipation rates in the MLT region.

Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere 3‐Dimensional Spatially Resolved Winds Observed by Chinese Multistatic Meteor Radar Network Using the Newly Developed VVP Method

AbstractWe present the first continuous observations of three‐dimensional spatially resolved wind fields and atmospheric motions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere in the mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Our observations were performed during a 19‐month campaign from January 2022 to July 2023 and exploited the composite data from the first multistatic meteor radar system in China and an adjacent monostatic meteor radar. To retrieve the atmospheric kinetic properties, we introduce an improved volume velocity processing method including coordinate transformations and non‐linear constraints to minimize errors. The vertical winds are estimated separately from the iteration of the horizontal divergence to avoid potential biases or contamination from the horizontal winds. The winds and air motions show annual/semiannual variation characteristics within certain altitudes, usually more variable around the equinoxes. The vertical winds are basically within the magnitude of 1 m/s and are upward as expected at the mesopause during the summer, which corresponds to the adiabatic cooling.

A new dual-frequency stratospheric–tropospheric and meteor radar: system description and first results

Abstract. A new dual-frequency stratospheric–tropospheric (ST) and meteor radar has been built and installed at the Langfang Observatory in northern China. It utilizes a new two-frequency system design that allows interleaved operation at 53.8 MHz for ST mode and at 35.0 MHz for meteor mode, thus optimizing performance for both ST wind retrieval and meteor trail detection. In dedicated meteor mode, the daily meteor count rate reaches over 40 000 and allows wind estimation at finer time resolutions than the 1 h typical of most meteor radars. The root mean square uncertainty of the ST wind measurements is better than 2 m s−1 when estimating the line of best fit with radiosonde winds. Preliminary observation results for 1 month of winter gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the mesosphere, lower stratosphere and troposphere are also presented. A case of waves generated by the passage of a cold front is found.

Design of a comprehensive sounding system for observing underdense meteors and ionospheric irregularities

Radar detection technology has been used to observe meteors since the last century. According to the echoes of electromagnetic waves scattered by meteor trails, the drift velocity of meteors is calculated to research the atmospheric dynamics characteristics in their distribution height. In this paper, complementary code sequences are applied to a Very High Frequency (VHF) ionospheric sounding system. Unlike the common VHF meteor radar, the system parameters can be set with a pulse duty cycle, allowing for flexible adjustment of detection range. At the same time, the detection frequency can also be adjusted within a certain range, breaking through the traditional fixed frequency detection mode. Moreover, by employing a miniaturized antenna array composed of an orthogonal dipole antenna for the VHF receiving, the system takes account of the requirements of the inversion algorithms of meteor radar and the detection need for the irregularities sounding concurrently, achieving the function of detecting multiple targets. Therefore, the system is called the Wuhan VHF Comprehensive Sounding (WHCS) system. This system has the function of integrating transmission and reception, which can be directly detected by a single station or synchronously detected through the separation of transmission and reception. This system has the function of internal channel calibration to compensate for the phase error of meteor echoes. Through further analysis of the detection data, the height distribution of meteors, as well as typical echoes of ionospheric irregularities, were obtained. The experiments verified the availability of the system scheme and its engineering application significance.

Gravity waves generated by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai volcanic eruption and their global propagation in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere observed by meteor radars and modeled with the High-Altitude general Mechanistic Circulation Model

Abstract. The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai volcano erupted on 15 January 2022, launching Lamb waves and gravity waves into the atmosphere. In this study, we present results using 13 globally distributed meteor radars and identify the volcanogenic gravity waves in the mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds. Leveraging the High-Altitude Mechanistic general Circulation Model (HIAMCM), we compare the global propagation of these gravity waves. We observed an eastward-propagating gravity wave packet with an observed phase speed of 240 ± 5.7 m s−1 and a westward-propagating gravity wave with an observed phase speed of 166.5 ± 6.4 m s−1. We identified these waves in HIAMCM and obtained very good agreement of the observed phase speeds of 239.5 ± 4.3 and 162.2 ± 6.1 m s−1 for the eastward the westward waves, respectively. Considering that HIAMCM perturbations in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere were the result of the secondary waves generated by the dissipation of the primary gravity waves from the volcanic eruption, this affirms the importance of higher-order wave generation. Furthermore, based on meteor radar observations of the gravity wave propagation around the globe, we estimate the eruption time to be within 6 min of the nominal value of 15 January 2022 04:15 UTC, and we localized the volcanic eruption to be within 78 km relative to the World Geodetic System 84 coordinates of the volcano, confirming our estimates to be realistic.

Meteor Radar for Investigation of the MLT Region: A Review

This is an introductory review of modern meteor radar and its application to the measurement of the dynamical parameters of the Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere (MLT) Region within the altitude range of around 70 to 110 km, which is where most meteors are detected. We take a historical approach, following the development of meteor radar for studies of the MLT from the time of their development after the Second World War until the present. The application of the meteor radar technique is closely aligned with their ability to make contributions to Meteor Astronomy in that they can determine meteor radiants, and measure meteoroid velocities and orbits, and so these aspects are noted when required. Meteor radar capabilities now extend to measurements of temperature and density in the MLT region and show potential to be extended to ionospheric studies. New meteor radar networks are commencing operation, and this heralds a new area of investigation as the horizontal spatial variation of the upper-atmosphere wind over an extended area is becoming available for the first time.

Sub-Hourly Variations of Wind Shear in the Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere as Observed by the China Meteor Radar Chain

Wind shear has important implications for Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KHI) and gravity waves (GWs) in the mesosphere–lower thermosphere (MLT) region where its momentum transport process is dominated by short-period (<1 h) GWs. However, the sub-hourly variation in wind shear is still not well quantified. This study aims to improve current understanding of vertical wind shear by analyzing multi-year meteor radar measurements at the Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 114.6°E), and Fuke (FK, 19.5°N, 109.1°E) stations in China. The wind field is estimated by a new algorithm, e.g., the damped least squares fitting. Taking the wind shear estimated by normal products as a criterion, the shear produced by the new algorithm has more statistical convergence as compared to the traditional algorithm, e.g., the least squares fitting. Therefore, we argue that the 10 min DLSA wind probably produces a more reasonable vertical shear. Both intensive wind shears and GW kinetic energy can be simultaneously captured during the 0600–1600 UTs of May at MH and during the 1300–2400 UTs of March at FK, possibly implying that the up-propagation of GWs could contribute to the production of large wind shears. The sub-hourly variation in wind shears is potentially valuable for understanding the interrelationship between shear (or KHI) and GWs.

Long‐Term Variability and Tendencies in Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Winds From Meteor Radar Observations Over Esrange (67.9°N, 21.1°E)

AbstractLong‐term variabilities of monthly zonal (U) and meridional winds (V) in northern polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT, ∼80–100 km) are investigated using meteor radar observations during 1999–2022 over Esrange (67.9°N, 21.1°E). The summer (June‐August) mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow up to ∼88–90 km and eastward flow above this height. The summer mean meridional winds are equatorward with strong jet at ∼85–90 km and it weakens above this height. The U and V exhibit strong interannual variability that varies with altitude and month or season. The responses of U and V anomalies (from 1999 to 2003) to solar cycle (SC), Quasi Biennial Oscillation at 10 and 30 hPa, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are analyzed using multiple linear regression. From analysis, significant regions of correlations between MLT winds and above potential drivers vary with altitude and month. The positive responses of U and V to SC (up to 15 m/s/100 sfu) indicates the strengthening of eastward winds in mid‐late winter, and poleward winds in late autumn and early winter. The O3 likely intensifies the eastward and poleward winds (∼100 m/s/ppmv) in winter and early spring. The CO2 significantly influence the eastward flow in late winter and summer (above ∼90–95 km) and strengthen the meridional circulation. The significant positive trend in U peaks in summer, late autumn and early winter (∼0.6 m/s/year), the negative trend in V is more prominent in summer above ∼90–95 km.

Statistics of Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances at High Latitudes Using a Rapid‐Run Ionosonde

AbstractThe potential of deep learning for the investigation of medium scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) has been exploited through the Sodankylä rapid‐run ionosonde in this statistical study. The complementing observations of the Sodankylä ionosonde with those of the Sodankylä meteor radar reveals the diurnal and seasonal occurrence rate of high‐latitude MSTIDs in the recent low solar activity period, 2018–2020. In our results, the daytime, nighttime and dusk MSTIDs are predominantly identified during winter, summer, and equinoctial months, respectively. The winter daytime higher (lower) occurrence rate is well correlated with the lower (higher) altitude of the height of the F2‐layer peak (hmF2), and the low occurrence rate of the summer daytime is well correlated with the mesosphere‐lower‐thermosphere wind shear and higher gradient of temperature. Relatively high occurrence rate (>0.4) of summer nighttime MSTIDs has a general—but not one‐to‐one agreement—with post‐noon to evening IU (eastward auroral current index) inferred ionospheric conductivity. Rather, we see a one‐to‐one relationship between the summer nighttime MSTIDs and zonal wind shear suggesting that the wind shear‐induced electrodynamic processes could play significant roles for higher occurrence rate of MSTIDs. Furthermore, significant MSTIDs with ∼0.4 occurrence rate are so far revealed during spring and autumn transition periods. The enhanced nighttime MSTID amplitudes during the equinox are observed to be well correlated with IL index (westward auroral current indicator) suggesting that the particle precipitation during substorms could be the primary cause.

Quasi-10 d wave activity in the southern high-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region and its relation to large-scale instability and gravity wave drag

Abstract. Seasonal variation in westward-propagating quasi-10 d waves (Q10DWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high-latitude regions is investigated using meteor radar (MR) observations for the period of 2012–2016 and using the Specified Dynamics (SD) version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The phase difference in meridional winds measured by two MRs located in Antarctica gives observational estimates of the amplitude and phase of the Q10DW with zonal wavenumber 1 (W1). The amplitude of the observed Q10DW-W1 is large around equinoxes. In order to elucidate the variations in the observed Q10DW-W1 and its possible amplification mechanism, we carry out two SD-WACCM experiments nudged towards the MERRA-2 reanalysis from the surface up to ∼ 60 km (EXP60) and ∼ 75 km (EXP75). Results of the EXP75 indicate that the observed Q10DW-W1 can be amplified around regions of barotropic and/or baroclinic instability in the middle mesosphere around 60–70° S. In the EXP60 experiment, it was also found that the Q10DW-W1 is amplified around the regions of instability, but the amplitude is too large compared to MR observations. The large-scale instability in the EXP60 in the SH summer mesosphere is stronger than that in the EXP75 and Microwave Limb Sounder observations. The larger instability in the EXP60 is related to the large meridional and vertical variations in polar mesospheric zonal winds in association with gravity wave parameterization (GWP). Given uncertainties inherent in GWP, these results can suggest that it is possible for models to spuriously generate traveling planetary waves such as the Q10DW, especially in summer, due to excessively strong large-scale instability in the SH high-latitude mesosphere.

How Long-lived Grains Dominate the Shape of the Zodiacal Cloud

Grain–grain collisions shape the three-dimensional size and velocity distribution of the inner Zodiacal Cloud and the impact rates of dust on inner planets, yet they remain the least understood sink of zodiacal dust grains. For the first time, we combine the collisional grooming method combined with a dynamical meteoroid model of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) that covers 4 orders of magnitude in particle diameter to investigate the consequences of grain–grain collisions in the inner Zodiacal Cloud. We compare this model to a suite of observational constraints from meteor radars, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, mass fluxes at Earth, and inner solar probes, and use it to derive the population and collisional strength parameters for the JFC dust cloud. We derive a critical specific energy of QD*=5×105±4×105Rmet−0.24 J kg−1 for particles from JFC particles, making them 2–3 orders of magnitude more resistant to collisions than previously assumed. We find that the differential power-law size index −4.2 ± 0.1 for particles generated by JFCs provides a good match to observed data. Our model provides a good match to the mass-production rates derived from the Parker Solar Probe observations and their scaling with the heliocentric distance. The higher resistance to collisions of dust particles might have strong implications to models of collisions in solar and exosolar dust clouds. The migration via Poynting–Robertson drag might be more important for denser clouds, the mass-production rates of astrophysical debris disks might be overestimated, and the mass of the source populations might be underestimated. Our models and code are freely available online.

The possible effect of turbopause on formation of mid-latitude sporadic E layers

Sporadic E (Es) layers are thin enhanced ionization patches. The electron density of Es layer is very high, up to 100 times that of the regular E layer. Therefore, Es layer has a significant effect on radio wave propagation. The formation mechanisms of Es layers is very complicated, so it needs multi-observations and simulations research. Combined observations using an ionosonde, very high frequency (VHF) coherent backscatter radar, VHF broadband backscatter radar, and meteor radar were performed. The height and irregular structure of mid-latitude Es layers observed by ionosonde, VHF coherent backscatter radar and VHF broadband backscatter radar were compared with the zonal and meridional winds observed by meteor radar, the role of wind shear on the formation of Es layer was confirmed, and examples were also found where wind shear theory could not explain and apply to the formation of Es layer. We simulated the formation of Es layers based on wind shear theory. The results of simulations and observations revealed other potential role for Es layer formation besides wind shear. By comparing the height of turbopause with that of Es layer, it was found that the variation of the altitudes of turbopause and Es layer was consistent over different latitude stations, and the effect of the turbopause on the formation of Es layer was proposed. The combined effects of eddy diffusion below and molecular ion collision above turbopause can prevent metal ions from drifting downward and promote their convergence to form thin plasma layers at the turbopause height. The turbopause accumulation effect is considered as a potentially important mechanism for the formation of Es layers besides wind shear theory. The study in the paper is helpful for analysis of physical origin and modeling of Es layer.

Interannual Variability of Winds in the Antarctic Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Over Rothera (67°S, 68°W) During 2005–2021 in Meteor Radar Observations and WACCM‐X

AbstractThe mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) plays a critical role in linking the middle and upper atmosphere. However, many General Circulation Models do not model the MLT and those that do remain poorly constrained. We use long‐term meteor radar observations (2005–2021) from Rothera (67°S, 68°W) on the Antarctic Peninsula to evaluate the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (WACCM‐X) and investigate interannual variability. We find some significant differences between WACCM‐X and observations. In particular, at upper heights, observations reveal eastwards wintertime (April–September) winds, whereas the model predicts westwards winds. In summer (October–March), the observed winds are northwards but predictions are southwards. Both the model and observations reveal significant interannual variability. We characterize the trend and the correlation between the winds and key phenomena: (a) the 11‐year solar cycle, (b) El Niño Southern Oscillation, (c) Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and (d) Southern Annular Mode using a linear regression method. Observations of the zonal wind show significant changes with time. The summertime westwards wind near 80 km is weakening by up to 4–5 ms−1 per decade, whilst the eastward wintertime winds around 85–95 km are strengthening at by around 7 ms−1 per decade. We find that at some times of year there are significant correlations between the phenomena and the observed/modeled winds. The significance of this work lies in quantifying the biases in a leading General Circulation Model and demonstrating notable interannual variability in both modeled and observed winds.