Metagame Analysis Research Articles

META-GAME THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF SOME STANDARD GAME THEORETIC PROBLEMS

Meta game theory is a non-quantitative reconstruction of mathematical game theory. This paper attempts to adapt meta-game theory for conflict analysis. A conflict is a situation where parties with opposing goals affect one another. A simple approach for performing meta-game analysis is adapted in this paper and illustrated on various games standard in game theory literature. The approach presented yields the desired results, although the computation required is much lesser than the standard Game theory analysis. Even a person without detailed knowledge about meta game analysis or game theory can implement this method.

Metagame analysis of Cauvery River dispute incorporating interannual variability in virgin runoff potential of the basin

Metagame analysis of Cauvery River dispute incorporating interannual variability in virgin runoff potential of the basin

Game-theoretic-based modelling of Krishna waters dispute: equilibrium solutions by Metagame Analysis

Conflicts are inevitable concerning sharing of the resources. Most of the time, due to the opacity of the conflict resolution technique, players involved do not accept the final solution. Therefore, any method adopted for resolving a conflict should involve players to get the equilibrium solution. Besides, the conflict resolution technique needs to be transparent, and the procedure must be the same for all the players involved. Metagame Analysis has the potential to accommodate the above conditions. In this study, we have discussed Metagame Analysis and its application to resolve India’s Krishna river basin dispute. Since the environment is an integral part of the river ecosystem, it has also been included as a conflict resolution player. We have also defined and derived Fair and Equitable (F&E) allocation in this regard, considering the factors that form the basis for their right as a rightful owner of the resource. The factors considered for F&E allocation are drainage area, cultivable area, and virgin runoff. The derived F&E allocation is then selected as one of the options for the Metagame Analysis. Metagame Analysis is carried out using two scenarios before and after Andhra Pradesh’s reorganization (in 2014). In scenario 1, equilibrium outcomes are 454, 458, and 469. Our results show that excessive demands may harm the water allocation if it violates the total flow. Outcome 469 is the F&E outcome in which all the players are going for cooperated negotiations which maximize their share. Outcomes 454 and 458 are those outcomes in which Karnataka is benefitted as it is getting its first option share. AP’s demand cannot be accommodated in any strategy as it exceeds the total flow, while there is a strategy available in which Karnataka’s first option can be sustained. The paper shows that the game-theoretic-based techniques can solve real-world disputes and that too as complex as water sharing.

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution: Reflections on Three Decades of Development

The fundamental design and inherent capabilities of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) to address a rich range of complex real world conflict situations are put into perspective by tracing its historical development over a period spanning more than 30 years, and highlighting great opportunities for meaningful future expansions within an era of artificial intelligence (AI) and intensifying conflict in an over-crowded world. By constructing a sound theoretical foundation for GMCR based upon assumptions reflecting what actually occurs in reality, a fascinating story is narrated on how GMCR was able to expand in bold new directions as well as take advantage of many important legacy decision technologies built within the earlier Metagame Analysis and later Conflict Analysis paradigms. From its predecessors, for instance, GMCR could benefit by the employment of option form put forward within Metagame Analysis for effectively recording a conflict, as well as preference elicitation techniques and solution concepts for defining chess-like behavior when calculating stability of states from the realm of Conflict Analysis. The key ideas outlined in the paper underlying the current and projected capabilities of GMCR include the development of four different ways to handle preference uncertainty in the presence of either transitive or intransitive preferences; a wide range of solution concepts for describing many kinds of human behavior under conflict; unique coalition analysis algorithms for determining if a given decision maker can fare better in a dispute via cooperation; tracing the evolution of a conflict over time; and the matrix formulation of GMCR for computational efficiency when calculating stability and also theoretically expanding GMCR in bold new directions. Inverse engineering is mentioned as an AI extension of GMCR for computationally determining the preferences required by decision makers in order to reach a desirable state, such as a climate change agreement in which all nations significantly cut back on their greenhouse gas emissions. The basic design of a decision support system for permitting researchers and practitioners to readily apply the foregoing and other advancements in GMCR to tough real world controversies is discussed. Although GMCR has been successfully applied to challenging disputes arising in many different fields, a simple climate change negotiation conflict between the US and China is utilized to explain clearly key concepts mentioned throughout the fascinating historical journey surrounding GMCR.

Beer's Viable System Model and Luhmann's Communication Theory: 'Organizations' from the Perspective of Metagames

Beyond the descriptions of ‘viability’ provided by Beer’s Viable System Model, Maturana’s autopoietic theory or Luhmann’s communication theory, questions remain as to what ‘viability’ means across different contexts. How is ‘viability’ affected by the Internet and the changing information environments in a knowledge-based economy? For Luhmann, social systems like businesses are coordination systems that do not ‘live’ as viable systems but operate because they relieve human beings from environmental complexity. We situate Beer’s concept of viability with Luhmann’s through analyzing the way that ‘decisions’ shape organizations in an information environment. Howard’s (1971) metagame analysis enables us to consider the ‘viable system’ as an ‘agent system’ producing utterances as moves in a discourse game within the context of its information environment. We discuss how this approach can lead to an accommodation between Beer’s practical orientation and Luhmann’s sociological critique where the relationship between viability, decision and information can be further explored.

メタゲーム論的思考によるメタン発酵消化液の液肥利用普及シナリオの記述と課題抽出

The establishment of recycling society is an important policy concern, and community development aiming at resource circulation in rural areas is necessary. Although the cooperation of many subjects is indispensable to resource circulation, various conflicts have arisen among related subjects because of differences in their interests and increase in the amount of work. But few studies describe conflicts among stakeholders and deduce the problems faced in promotion of environment-conscious resources to smoothly build a consensus. In this study, we selected Yagi-cho, Nantan-city, Kyoto prefecture as the study area and used meta-game analysis to examine the mechanism of conflict that occurred among farmhouses or the consumers during the promotion of the use of liquid fertilizer by the local government. For this analysis, we traced the process of interaction and past conflicts caused by a discrepancy in each subject's intention and regarded this as the present phase. Then, we considered some scenarios derived from the combination of strategy options available to each subject and some issues to solve for inducing an ideal future scenario. The results indicate that the most pressing problem after developing cooperative behaviour of livestock farmhouses by following a conviction of the administrative authorities was involving field husbandry farmhouses into the collaboration cycle. However, under the condition of uncertainty about consumers' demand for agricultural products made using liquid fertilizer, this was difficult to achieve because of the discrepancy in preference order in each scenario. Conversely, it is possible that as long as the local government and other subjects cooperate and improve the motivation of field husbandry farmhouses, the use of liquid fertilizers can spread rapidly. Although the analytical method used in this study needs improvement, the results of this study illustrated the validity of the application of meta-game analysis to solve the conflict.

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part I: Theoretical Foundation

Global risk and disaster management challenges are complex and ill-structured group decision processes characterized by time-sensitive, multi-faceted, and self-organizing negotiations, high decision stakes, extreme uncertainty, and dynamic, value-laden tradeoffs. Drama theory asserts that conflict resolution requires players to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining both the game and their “positions” in it until agreement on a satisfactory resolution is reached. While game theory has been widely applied to problems dealing with hazards, risk, and disasters, it assumes fixed players, options, and preferences, and hence does not allow for the re-definition of the conflict under consideration. Results show that drama theory constitutes a flexible and powerful tool for modeling group decision and negotiation processes involving natural, man-made, and health-related hazards, risk, and catastrophes in the post-911 security environment by modeling emotional responses that, throughout the course of a game, can lead to unanticipated reactions and change basic assumptions. This is achieved through the use of option boards to construct and analyze emergency, disaster, or crisis models that are structurally similar to game models. Finally, drama theory is compared and contrasted to conflict analysis, which developed from common roots in metagame analysis. The strengths and weaknesses of drama theory are critically evaluated in the context of global climate change and the mounting risk of a worldwide influenza pandemic.

社会運動組織の戦略の有効性に関する一考察 : なぜ圏央道の建設は止まらず, 三番瀬の埋立ては止まったか

社会運動組織の戦略の有効性に関する一考察 : なぜ圏央道の建設は止まらず, 三番瀬の埋立ては止まったか

Telling stories: a metagame description of a conflict

This paper describes the use of metagame analysis to describe and explore a conflict situation. The analysis was carried out by the author, who was associated with one of the parties in the conflict, for his own benefit. A full description of the analysis is provided. A particular characteristic of the situation was that it was not possible to specify preferences for scenarios for any of the actors with a reasonable degree of confidence. This made the standard metagame analysis approach unworkable, and an alternative approach, involving the development of stories describing a variety of possible future events, was used instead.

A Metagame Analysis of the Resolution of Conflicts between Urban Development and Disaster Prevention-An Approach by Robustness Analysis, Norio OKADA, Keishi TANIMOTO and Masaki ARAZOE

A Metagame Analysis of the Resolution of Conflicts between Urban Development and Disaster Prevention-An Approach by Robustness Analysis, Norio OKADA, Keishi TANIMOTO and Masaki ARAZOE

Linking futures research methodologies: An application of systems thinking and metagame analysis to nuclear energy policy issues

Futures research offers a wide range of methodologies which are based on different approaches and scientific backgrounds. This article demonstrates how two separate, though complementary, schools of thought can be combined. As an example, a set of models for strategic decision support in Swiss nuclear energy policy issues is developed centring on the increase of nuclear production capacity and a final storage for nuclear wastes. First, a systems thinking approach is used to define a coherent, comprehensive framework focusing on the sociopolitical mechanisms at work. Second, metagame analysis concentrates on the conflict resolution process between the opposed groups. When decisions are made and implemented the interactions between the actors involved are critical for their behaviour in the subsequent phase. Here, the models show how their strategic efforts evolve over time. It is demonstrated how this intelligence can be used to establish effective communication strategies.

Analyzing an International Environmental Conflict Using the Graph Model

A comprehensive approach for modeling conflicts is the recently developed graph form of conflict model. The main objectives of this paper are to characterize various solution concepts using the graph model framework and to demonstrate how these developments are useful for modeling a real world dispute. The specific solution concepts formulated here for the graph model are Nash stability, metagame analysis, and the sequential stability approach of Fraser and Hipel. These solution concepts, and the limited-move and non-myopic methods developed previously, are compared and applied in this study. Finally, a complex international environmental dispute is analyzed to demonstrate the insight which decision makers can gain from studying a conflict using this methodology

Usefulness of Metagame Analysis

Usefulness of Metagame Analysis

Usefulness of Metagame Analysis

Usefulness of Metagame Analysis

The New York Subway Car Dispute

The improved metagame analysis algorithm is used to analyse a complex “real world” international trade dispute that occurred as an aftermath to the awarding of a large contract to supply subway cars for New York City. In addition to furnishing a systematic structure for analysis, the metagame approach to conflict analysis is used to predict the feasible resolutions to the subway conflict. The application clearly depicts the many inherent advantages of employing a systematic procedure to analyse a given international trade dispute.

A procedure for analyzing hypergames

A general methodology is presented for characterizing and analyzing hypergames which are conflicts where mistaken information is present. Hypergames are important for describing many real world disputes because often the participants or players do not share the same perception of the conflicts and, furthermore, players may have misperceptions which are based upon other players' misunderstandings. Since a comprehensive structure is provided for defining any type of hypergame, the improved metagame analysis algorithm can be employed to systematically model any hypergame and predict the possible resolutions or equilibria. The Allied invasion of Normandy in 1945 is utilized for demonstrating how an actual hypergame can be studied in practice.

Approaches to conflict modeling: A study of a possible USA-USSR nuclear confrontation

A possible nuclear confrontation between the USA and USSR is analyzed using five different models from game theory in order to compare the various approaches that can be taken in the analysis of conflicts. Of particular importance is an improved metagame analysis model that provides a comprehensive procedure for analyzing not only the nuclear conflict but also any other type of real world conflict that can arise in practice. When the improved metagame analysis model is linked with a new state transition model, the dynamics of the game can be thoroughly studied.

The Alaskan gas pipeline conflict

A new conflict analysis technique is employed to study the dispute surrounding the selection of a natural gas pipeline route to transport gas from the American state of Alaska and also northern Canada to southern markets in the United States and Canada. The improved metagame analysis algorithm is the type of conflict analysis method that is used for providing a framework to study systematically the Alaskan gas pipeline controversy and to put the historical information into proper perspective. In addition, the methodology is utilized for predicting the possible feasible political solutions to the conflict.

Conflict analysis of an export credit trade dispute

The improved metagame analysis algorithm is employed to study an international trade dispute involving government subsidised export credits. In particular, the methodology is applied to a conflict over the awarding of a large contract to supply subway cars by New York City. Logically feasible resolutions to the dispute are highlighted and the possible role of strategic deception in the awarding of the contract is investigated.

Metagame analysis of competitive strategy

AbstractThe need for effective competitive strategy planning for a firm's survival and growth has long been recognized to be important. The identification and selection of good, or robust, market strategies must be based on the anticipation of the likely strategies of significant competitors, who should ideally be visualized as undergoing a similar process of assessing their own and other's goals and probable strategies.This paper reviews and evaluates the traditional economic and game theoretic approaches to competitive strategy analysis and presents an application of metagame analysis—an approach which has not previously been used in the strategic business environment. This approach, which appears to have some significant advantages over both economic and game theoretic approaches has been utilized and evaluated in a business firm (Dutta and King, forthcoming). An illustration of its use, which is based on a real‐world application, is discussed.