Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model Research Articles

Relationships between Terrain Features and Forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Relationships between Terrain Features and Forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

How frequent and which variables of automatic weather station data should be assimilated into WRF-3DVar model? A case study of a squall line event in Beijing

Accurate precipitation forecasting is one of the most challenging problems in mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The utilization of 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVar) Data Assimilation technique based on automatic weather station (AWS) data can significantly enhance the accuracy of precipitation simulations and forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, the impacts of different assimilation frequencies and meteorological variables on the accuracy of precipitation forecasts remain unclear. This study comprehensively evaluated the impact of different assimilation frequencies and meteorological variables on precipitation forecasts, as illustrated by a case study of a squall line event on August 2, 2017, in Beijing. Eight experiments were conducted by assimilating different combinations of meteorological variables (air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction) at various time intervals (1 h, 3 h, and 6 h). The results indicated that the WRF model roughly simulated the evolution of this event but overestimated the precipitation amount, accompanied by a large deviation in precipitation areas. Assimilating detailed AWS data significantly improves the model performance in precipitation forecasts. The experiment assimilating all variables at a 3 h interval yielded the most accurate forecasts, with the maximum threat score (TS) increasing from 0.02 to 0.56. Higher assimilation frequencies do not guarantee a better performance. In practice, a 3 h assimilation frequency emerges as an optimal choice for AWS data assimilation. The assimilation of various variables enhanced precipitation forecasts to varying degrees, with the optimum results achieved when all variables were assimilated. Wind speed and direction were the most significant factors in dynamically enhancing the simulation of precipitation areas. Relative humidity and temperature influenced the precipitation intensity by affecting the evolution of convective precipitation thermodynamically. The findings of this study can contribute to the development of AWS data assimilation strategies for the WRF-3DVar model, thereby enhancing the precipitation forecast accuracy.

The impact of aerosol-cloud interaction on mesoscale numerical weather prediction when low-cloud and haze coexist in winter over major polluted regions of China

Compared with climate models, the role of aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models still needs to be better understood, especially in haze regions with relatively high aerosol concentration. Here, we perform two sensitivity experiments with and without ACI (ACI and NO-ACI) in the atmospheric chemistry model GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE to investigate the impact of ACI on mesoscale NWP during the low-cloud period in winter 2016 over varying haze regions (severe polluted Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ), polluted Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and weak polluted Pearl River Delta (PRD)) in China. The study results show that the real-time ACI improves underestimated cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud water liquid path (CLWP) in haze regions, with the mean bias of simulated COT (CLWP) decreased by 27% (3%), 60% (14%), and 55% (3%) in JJJ, YRD, and PRD, respectively. The increased COT and CLWP lead to a decrease of 6.8, 21, and 13 W m−2 in daytime surface downward shortwave radiation (SDSR) in JJJ, YRD, and PRD, helping to reduce the mean bias of daytime SDSR by 6%, 13%, and 9%. In addition, ACI mitigates the warm bias of temperature at 2 m and dry bias of relative humidity (RH) at 2 m to a certain extent in haze regions, particularly in YRD with the mean absolute bias improved by 13% and 6%. The simulated vertical structure of temperature and RH in the ACI experiment is more consistent with observations than in the NO-ACI experiment. Further investigations find that the ACI effects on mesoscale NWP strongly depend on COT and CLWP magnitude over varying haze regions. Higher COT and CLWP, hence more significant meteorology changes due to ACI, occur in YRD, followed by PRD and JJJ. This study demonstrates the importance and complexity of ACI in modifying mesoscale NWP over varying haze regions of China, which promotes the further understanding of ACI in operational NWP models and bridges the gap with climate models.

Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME

Inspecting the literature, much effort has been placed on the verification of irradiance forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as such forecasts are thought to have profound implications on the photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts, which in turn affects grid operators' confidence in integrating such power into the electricity grid. However, perhaps due to the proprietary nature of PV plants and lack of access to state-of-the-art NWP model output, only few have had the chance to conduct head-to-head comparisons of global mesoscale and regional downscaled NWP models, in terms of how their irradiance forecast inaccuracies propagate to PV power forecasts. In this regard, this work presents such a study, in which irradiance and PV power forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' High-Resolution (HRES) and Météo-France's Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) models are thoroughly verified against the ground-based measurements from 32 research-grade radiometry stations and 94 actual PV plants in Hungary. A wide range of techniques and case studies concerning verification is herein considered, including variance ratio analysis, Murphy–Winkler decomposition, point-versus-areal verification, and seasonal verification. Despite that the results are too numerous to be summarized in a few sentences, the overarching observation from the verification exercise is that the performance of irradiance forecasts can only be used to infer that of PV power forecasts to a certain extent, which contrasts the conventional wisdom.

Preparing the assimilation of the future MTG‐IRS sounder into the mesoscale numerical weather prediction AROME model

AbstractThe infrared sounder (IRS) instrument is an infrared Fourier‐transform spectrometer that will be on board the Meteosat Third Generation series of the future European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellite's geostationary satellites. It will measure the radiance emitted by the Earth at the top of the atmosphere using 1,960 channels. The IRS will provide high spatial‐ and temporal‐frequency four‐dimensional information on atmospheric temperature and humidity, winds, clouds, and surfaces, as well as on the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The assimilation of these new observations represents a great challenge and opportunity for the improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast skill, especially for mesoscale models such as the Applications de la Recherche à l'Opérationnel à Méso‐Echelle (AROME) at Météo‐France. The objectives of this study are to prepare for the assimilation of the IRS in this system and to evaluate its impact on the forecasts when added to the currently assimilated observations. By using an observing system simulation experiment constructed for a mesoscale NWP model. This observing system simulation experiment framework makes use of synthetic observations of both IRS and the currently assimilated observing systems in AROME, constructed from a known and realistic state of the atmosphere. The latter, called the “nature run”, is derived from a long and uninterrupted forecast of the mesoscale model. These observations were assimilated and evaluated using a 1 hr update cycle three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system over 2‐month periods, one in the summer and one in the winter. This study demonstrates the benefits that can be expected from the assimilation of IRS observations into the AROME NWP system. The assimilation of only 75 channels over oceans increases the total amount of observations used in the AROME three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system by about 50%. The IRS impact in terms of forecast scores was evaluated and compared for the summer and winter periods. The main findings are as follows: (a) over both periods the assimilation of these observations leads to statistically improved forecasts over the whole atmospheric column; (b) for the summer‐season experiment, the forecast ranges up to 48 hr are improved; (c) for the winter‐season experiment, the impact on the forecasts is globally positive but is smaller than the summer period and extends only to 24 hr. Based on these results, it is foreseen that the addition of future IRS observations in the AROME NWP systems will significantly improve mesoscale weather forecasts.

Soil Moisture Monitoring at Kilometer Scale: Assimilation of Sentinel-1 Products in ISBA

Observed by satellites for more than a decade, surface soil moisture (SSM) is an essential component of the Earth system. Today, with the Sentinel missions, SSM can be derived at a sub-kilometer spatial resolution. In this work, aggregated 1 km × 1 km SSM observations combining Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) data are assimilated for the first time into the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model using the global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS-Monde) tool of Meteo-France. The ISBA simulations are driven by atmospheric variables from the Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction model for the period 2017–2019 for two regions in Southern France, Toulouse and Montpellier, and for the Salamanca region in Spain. The S1 SSM shows a good agreement with in situ SSM observations. The S1 SSM is assimilated either alone or together with leaf area index (LAI) observations from the PROBA-V satellite. The assimilation of S1 SSM alone has a small impact on the simulated root zone soil moisture. On the other hand, a marked impact of the assimilation is observed over agricultural areas when LAI is assimilated, and the impact is larger when S1 SSM and LAI are assimilated together.

A coupled turbine-interaction wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

The wind farm parameterization in the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is a valuable approach to exploring the performance and atmospheric impact of the large-scale wind farm. However, the sub-grid interactions between turbines are not resolved in the current parameterization method. In this study, we propose an improved wind farm parameterization by coupling a novel sub-grid wind turbine interference model. It is incorporated in the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To verify the model, the coupled model is applied in a real offshore wind farm in China for comparing the model performances with the original parameterization. The findings demonstrate that the proposed approach improves the wind simulation and has minimal sensitivity to horizontal grid resolution, hence strengthening the model’s robustness. Additionally, it is discovered that the sub-grid interaction reduces the turbine-produced turbulence and shortens the wake length by more than 30% compared to the original parameterization. Importantly, the power output prediction of turbine cells is modified, approximately resulting in a 1 % reduction of the entire wind farm relative to the original model. The effects of sub-grid turbine interaction are effectively captured in the proposed model and it is recommended for further wind farm simulations.

Evaluation of simulated CO2 power plant plumes from six high-resolution atmospheric transport models

Abstract. Power plants and large industrial facilities contribute more than half of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Quantifying the emissions of these point sources is therefore one of the main goals of the planned constellation of anthropogenic CO2 monitoring satellites (CO2M) of the European Copernicus program. Atmospheric transport models may be used to study the capabilities of such satellites through observing system simulation experiments and to quantify emissions in an inverse modeling framework. How realistically the CO2 plumes of power plants can be simulated and how strongly the results may depend on model type and resolution, however, is not well known due to a lack of observations available for benchmarking. Here, we use the unique data set of aircraft in situ and remote sensing observations collected during the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) measurement campaign downwind of the coal-fired power plants at Bełchatów in Poland and Jänschwalde in Germany in 2018 to evaluate the simulations of six different atmospheric transport models. The models include three large-eddy simulation (LES) models, two mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models extended for atmospheric tracer transport, and one Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) and cover a wide range of model resolutions from 200 m to 2 km horizontal grid spacing. At the time of the aircraft measurements between late morning and early afternoon, the simulated plumes were slightly (at Jänschwalde) to highly (at Bełchatów) turbulent, consistent with the observations, and extended over the whole depth of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL; up to 1800 m a.s.l. (above sea level) in the case of Bełchatów). The stochastic nature of turbulent plumes puts fundamental limitations on a point-by-point comparison between simulations and observations. Therefore, the evaluation focused on statistical properties such as plume amplitude and width as a function of distance from the source. LES and NWP models showed similar performance and sometimes remarkable agreement with the observations when operated at a comparable resolution. The Lagrangian model, which was the only model driven by winds observed from the aircraft, quite accurately captured the location of the plumes but generally underestimated their width. A resolution of 1 km or better appears to be necessary to realistically capture turbulent plume structures. At a coarser resolution, the plumes disperse too quickly, especially in the near-field range (0–8 km from the source), and turbulent structures are increasingly smoothed out. Total vertical columns are easier to simulate accurately than the vertical distribution of CO2, since the latter is critically affected by profiles of vertical stability, especially near the top of the ABL. Cross-sectional flux and integrated mass enhancement methods applied to synthetic CO2M data generated from the model simulations with a random noise of 0.5–1.0 ppm (parts per million) suggest that emissions from a power plant like Bełchatów can be estimated with an accuracy of about 20 % from single overpasses. Estimates of the effective wind speed are a critical input for these methods. Wind speeds in the middle of the ABL appear to be a good approximation for plumes in a well-mixed ABL, as encountered during CoMet.

Introducing a data-driven approach to predict site-specific leading-edge erosion from mesoscale weather simulations

Abstract. Modeling leading-edge erosion has been a challenging task due to its multidisciplinary nature involving several variables such as weather conditions, blade coating properties, and operational characteristics. While the process of wind turbine blade erosion is often described by engineering models that rely on the well-known Springer model, there is a glaring need for modeling approaches supported by field data. This paper presents a data-driven framework for modeling erosion damage based on blade inspections from several wind farms in northern Europe and mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The outcome of the framework is a machine-learning-based model that can be used to predict and/or forecast leading-edge erosion damage based on weather data/simulations and user-specified wind turbine characteristics. The model is based on feedforward artificial neural networks utilizing ensemble learning for robust training and validation. The model output fits directly into the damage terminology used by industry and can therefore support site-specific planning and scheduling of repairs as well as budgeting of operation and maintenance costs.

Pairing ensemble numerical weather prediction with ensemble physical model chain for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting

Under the two-step framework of photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting, that is, forecasting first the irradiance and then converting it to PV power, there are two chief ways in which one can account for the uncertainty embedded in the final PV power forecast. One of those is to produce probabilistic irradiance forecast through, for example, ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP), and the other is to pass the irradiance forecast through a collection of different irradiance-to-power conversion sequences, which are known as model chains. This work investigates, for the first time, into the question: Whether pairing ensemble NWP with ensemble model chain is better than leveraging any individual method alone? Using data from 14 utility-scale ground-mounted PV plants in Hungary and the state-of-the-art global mesoscale NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, it is herein demonstrated that the best probabilistic PV power forecast needs to consider both ensemble NWP and ensemble model chain. Furthermore, owing to the higher-quality probabilistic forecasts, the point forecast accuracy is also improved substantially through pairing. Overall, the recommended paring strategy achieves a mean-normalized continuous ranked probability score and a root mean square error of 18.4% and 42.1%, respectively.

Development and Application of the SmartAQ High-Resolution Air Quality and Source Apportionment Forecasting System for European Urban Areas

Air pollution forecasting systems are useful tools for the reduction in human health risks and the eventual improvement of atmospheric quality on regional or urban scales. The SmartAQ (Smart Air Quality) forecasting system combines state-of-the-art meteorological and chemical transport models to provide detailed air pollutant concentration predictions at a resolution of 1 × 1 km2 for the urban area of interest for the next few days. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model is used to produce meteorological fields and the PMCAMx (Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions) chemical transport model for the simulation of air pollution. SmartAQ operates automatically in real time and provides, in its current configuration, a three-day forecast of the concentration of tens of gas-phase air pollutants (NOx, SO2, CO, O3, volatile organic compounds, etc.), the complete aerosol size/composition distribution, and the source contributions for all primary and secondary pollutants. The system simulates the regional air quality in Europe at medium spatial resolution and can focus, using high resolution, on any urban area of the continent. The city of Patras in Greece is used for the first SmartAQ application, taking advantage of the available Patras’ dense low-cost sensor network for PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 μm) concentration measurements. Advantages of SmartAQ include (a) a high horizontal spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2 for the simulated urban area; (b) advanced treatment of the organic aerosol volatility and chemistry; (c) use of an updated emission inventory that includes not only the traditional sources (industry, transport, agriculture, etc.), but also biomass burning from domestic heating and cooking; (d) forecasting of not only the pollutant concentrations, but also of the sources contributions for each one of them using the Particulate matter Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) algorithm.

Evaluation of Urban Canopy Models against Near-Surface Measurements in Houston during a Strong Frontal Passage

Urban canopy models (UCMs) in mesoscale numerical weather prediction models need evaluation to understand biases in urban environments under a range of conditions. The authors evaluate a new drag formula in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s multilayer UCM, the Building Effect Parameterization combined with the Building Energy Model (BEP+BEM), against both in-situ measurements in the urban environment as well as simulations with a simple bulk scheme and BEP+BEM using the old drag formula. The new drag formula varies with building packing density, while the old drag formula is constant. The case study is a strong cold frontal passage that occurred in Houston during the winter of 2017, causing high winds. It is found that both BEP+BEM simulations have lower peak wind speeds, consistent with near-surface measurements, while the bulk simulation has winds that are too strong. The constant-drag BEP+BEM simulation has a near-zero wind speed bias, while the new-drag simulation has a negative bias. Although the focus is on the impact of drag on the urban wind speeds, both BEP+BEM simulations have larger negative biases in the near-surface temperature than the bulk-scheme simulation. Reasons for the different performances are discussed.

Investigation of the uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions in the hindcasts of flow fields over urban areas using a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

AbstractNumerous studies have been conducted using mesoscale numerical weather prediction models to analyze the thermal and wind environments of urban areas around the world. However, weather predictions are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This is the so‐called “butterfly effect.” In this study, the effects of initial and boundary conditions upon the reproduction accuracy for wind environments (particularly for the sea breeze) over the Fukuoka metropolitan area were investigated by varying (i) the objective analysis data used for the initial and boundary conditions and (ii) the length of the spin‐up calculation period. The results of the simulation were compared with surface observations and Doppler LIDAR observations of the airflow field. The accuracy is thought to decrease under an increase in the length of the spin‐up calculation period; however, this was not the case in this study. In terms of the differences in the objective analysis data, no clear trend was observed from the comparisons with surface observations; however, slight differences were observed when comparing with the Doppler LIDAR. The lagged average forecasting method (which reduces the uncertainty of the initial conditions by shifting the calculation start time) was also adopted; the ensemble‐averaged results showed a good correspondence with the observations.

Phase Turbulence Prediction Method for Line-of-Sight Multiple-Input–Multiple-Output Links Caused by Atmospheric Environment

The multiple-input–multiple-output (MIMO) phase of the received signal is the most important parameter in the line-of-sight MIMO (LOS MIMO) system. The MIMO phase turbulence often occurs in practical applications, and the LOS MIMO system cannot operate normally in severe cases. However, there is no practical MIMO phase prediction method presently. A tropospheric radio-duct during phase turbulence was observed using a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In this study, a novel MIMO phase prediction method was proposed. In the method, the tropospheric refractivity profile was predicted using a mesoscale NWP model, and then MIMO phase was predicted by the parabolic equation model. The comparison of the predicted MIMO phases with the measured results shows good agreement. MIMO phase turbulence prediction method can provide support for LOS MIMO system performance prediction.

Mesoscale impact of the sea surface on the performance of offshore wind farms

The impact of the ocean on the performance of offshore wind farms is a challenging study in the wind energy field. In the present study, by coupling a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), with a sea surface model and a refined wind farm parameterization, a systematic atmosphere-sea surface-wind farm simulation method is established. The question of how the ocean-atmosphere interaction changes the wake effect and power output of wind farms based on the method is explored. The results show that the momentum deficit due to the operating wind turbines is remarkable, and the wind speed deficit has a strong horizontal diffusion on a sea surface. Wake from the offshore wind farm is prone to mix and extends with a shorter length than that on the flat land. The wake mixing enhances the interference from upwind to downwind turbines, resulting in the power outputs of downwind turbines being decreased by 10%. Besides, the increasing wind shear due to the ocean waves decreases the wind power by around 3.5%. Accordingly, it is significant for applying such a coupled air-sea surface-wind farm simulation method when assessing the offshore wind farm performance and the impact of the wind farms on the marine atmospheric boundary layer.

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Abstract. Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (∼-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (∼-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (∼+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

A multi-scale model for day-ahead wind speed forecasting: A case study of the Houhoku wind farm, Japan

Accurate day-ahead wind prediction from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is crucial for integrating wind power into existing grids and wind farm arrangements. Most wind farms in Japan are scattered in mountainous areas susceptible to strong winds and wind patterns that are highly fluctuating and cannot be captured well with mesoscale NWP models. Aiming to provide reliable day-ahead forecasts in rugged zones with complex topography, we introduce a multi-scale model based on coupling the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and the Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) Computational Fluid Dynamics model. The WRF’s predictions are used as initial/boundary conditions for a microscale simulation using OpenFOAM. This coupled model can overcome the shortcomings when employing each component independently. Numerical simulations and validations are carried out at a wind farm in Houhoku, Japan, during summer and winter. The multi-scale model results show a considerable reduction in the bias, mean absolute error, and root mean square error compared to the WRF-alone forecasts. It also has a superior skill against most post-processing algorithms or artificial intelligence techniques to reduce random forecasting errors. In addition, analysis of computational cost demonstrates the promising capability of this multi-scale model being a routine tool.

An Algorithm for Detecting the Chesapeake Bay Breeze from Mesoscale NWP Model Output

Abstract A novel algorithm is developed for detecting and classifying the Chesapeake Bay breeze and similar water-body breezes in output from mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. To assess the generality of the new model-based detection algorithm (MBDA), it is tested on simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and on analyses and forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. The MBDA outperforms three observation-based detection algorithms (OBDAs) when applied to the same model output. In addition, by defining the onshore wind directions on the basis of model land-use data and not on the actual geography of the region of interest, performance of the OBDAs with model output can be improved. Although simulations by the WRF Model were used to develop the new MBDA, it performed best when applied to HRRR analyses. The generality of the MBDA is promising, and additional tuning of its parameters might improve it further.

Generating long-term sub-hourly wind speed time series by coupling mesoscale models with full-scale spectra

Time series-based wind studies are gaining more and more interest and importance within the wind resource community. Benefits of such time series-based analysis being, among others, more accurate production and loss estimations, better representation of ramp-up and extreme events, and improvements in the dimensioning of energy storage systems. While mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models can simulate long-term winds that capture non-stationary weather patterns, it is known that they are not able to properly resolve sub-scale processes leading to a smoothing effect. Recent studies presented spectral models that describe the full atmospheric spectrum of boundary layer winds which connect the microscale turbulent movements to the large, mesoscale fluctuations. In this work, mesoscale simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are coupled with stochastic turbulence simulations using state-of-the-art full-scale boundary-layer spectra to efficiently bridge the spectral gap between the mesoscale and the turbulence fluctuations, without requiring any local measurements nor expensive CFD simulations. The study provides a practical step-by-step approach to generate long wind speed time series at high sampling rate at any desired location and height.

Urban-Scale Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations with Boundary Conditions from Similarity Theory and a Mesoscale Model

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models usually provide information regarding environmental parameters near urban areas at a spatial resolution of the order of thousands or hundreds of meters, at best. If detailed information is required at the building scale, an urban-scale model is necessary. Proper definition of the boundary conditions for the urban-scale simulation is very demanding in terms of its compatibility with environmental conditions and numerical modeling. Here, steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) microscale simulations of the wind and thermal environment are performed over an urban area of Kozani, Greece, using both the k-ε and k-ω SST turbulence models. For the boundary conditions, instead of interpolating vertical profiles from the mesoscale solution, which is obtained with the atmospheric pollution model (TAPM), a novel approach is proposed, relying on previously developed analytic expressions, based on the Monin Obuhkov similarity theory, and one-way coupling with minimal information from mesoscale indices (Vy = 10 m, Ty = 100 m, L*). The extra computational cost is negligible compared to direct interpolation from mesoscale data, and the methodology provides design phase flexibility, allowing for the representation of discrete urban-scale atmospheric conditions, as defined by the mesoscale indices. The results compared favorably with the common interpolation practice and with the following measurements obtained for the current study: SODAR for vertical profiles of wind speed and a meteorological temperature profiler for temperature. The significance of including the effects of diverse atmospheric conditions is manifested in the microscale simulations, through significant variations (~30%) in the critical building-related design parameters, such as the surface pressure distributions and local wind patterns.