Urban Flood Analysis and Early Warning Solution for Disaster Resilience

Abstract

The objective of this work is to present the experimental findings of an urban flood early warning system developed by combining a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (WRF) forecast with a distributed hydrologic modelling system. Hydrodynamic models have been used in the simulation of intricate and interrelated dynamic systems, such as urban watersheds and urban water infrastructure. The use of these models in assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk is well-established. On the other hand, the Numerical weather prediction (NWP) such as WRF model output are crucial to increase the lead time for the flood forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed for the purpose of generating precipitation forecasts, which are subsequently utilized to conduct hydrologic and hydrodynamic simulations. In accordance with the climatology of the study area, the WRF model forecast is juxtaposed with the observed rainfall data for days 1, 2, and 3. Statistical indicators of accuracy assessment suggest acceptable degree of correlation with the observed precipitation. The experiment successfully designed and implemented a comprehensive web-based urban flood forecast and early warning system. The system is able to predict possible inundation areas within the catchment due to projected rainfall. Additionally, the study develops a web-based Flood Management Information System (MIS) that is fully automated and disseminate early warning with a lead time of 72 hours.