Meridional Pressure Gradient Research Articles

Non‐Synchronization of the Decadal Transition in Winter Near‐Surface Wind Speed Across Northern and Southern China

AbstractDecadal variations in near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and their causes are poorly understood. We found that the decadal transition of winter NSWS in northern China (NC) was 10 years earlier than in southern China (SC), which could be linked to the changes in intensities of the eastward wave‐activity flux and Siberian High (SH) induced by the Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia (WACE) dipole pattern. From 1973 to 1990, the WACE pattern from positive to negative phases confined the eastward wave trains to high latitudes with a decreasing SH, inducing an NSWS reduction. From 1991 to 2000, the WACE strengthened from negative to positive phases, causing a decadal transition in NSWS first in NC. After 2000, accompanied by the strengthening of the positive WACE, the eastward wave trains propagated downstream to lower latitudes, the SH and the meridional pressure gradient enhanced. Therefore, the transition of decadal NSWS occurred in SC until 2000.

Objective method of predicting monsoon onset over Kerala in medium and extended range time scale using Numerical Weather Prediction models

The southwest monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) is very crucial for an Agricultural country like India hence its prediction in the extended range time scale (about 3 weeks in advance) is very useful for the Kharif season in India. As the declaration of MOK involves subjective interpretation of the forecasters, an objective method of prediction of MOK based on dynamical models could successfully avoid bogus onsets. Two objective prediction methods for MOK are developed based on the real-time extended range forecast (ERF) of rainfall measured over Kerala coast 080-120N, 740-780E and the strength and depth of the westerly wind over the Arabian Sea (050-120N, 550-750E) for the period from 2003 to 2022 are used in the first method. In addition to these 3 indices, meridional pressure gradient along the west coast of India is used in the second method with 4 indices. The MOK date is defined objectively based on these variables exceeding the thresholds in both the methods. The results indicate that the MOK forecast with four indices performed well compared to that with three indices during the whole period from 2003 to 2022 with the mean deviation days of MOK found to be 0.75 and 3.05 days respectively. Overall, the dynamically defined onset date over Kerala based on the real-time ERF indicated useful skill at least about 2–3 weeks in advance. It is also demonstrated that the district-level Multi-Model Ensemble forecast in the medium range (5 days in advance) based on 5 global models can add value to the categorical ERF of MOK for the exact forecast date of MOK.

Late Pleistocene island weathering and precipitation in the Western Pacific Warm Pool

Deciphering past climate variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), the Earth’s largest heat and moisture centre, is vital for understanding the global climate system. Nevertheless, its long-term evolution remains controversial, largely due to ambiguities in existing proxy interpretations and discrepancies between records. Here, we present a weathering and erosion reconstruction from the WPWP spanning the last 140,000 years, based on the mineralogy and geochemistry of a sediment core from offshore of northern New Guinea. The paleo-weathering reconstruction is consistent with the simulated precipitation evolution on nearby islands, thereby suggesting a close coupling between climate variability and island weathering in a tropical setting. In addition, our combined data-model interpretation of WPWP climate history shows many similarities to the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) variability over orbital timescales. Overall, our study highlights the critical role of precession-paced interhemispheric energy redistribution, via the West Pacific meridional sea-surface pressure gradient, in linking orbital-scale WPWP climate and EASM variability.

A Mechanism for the Summer Monsoon Precipitation Variability Over Northwest India Driven by Moisture Deficit Transport

AbstractA large reservoir of saturation deficit air is known to exist over the northern Arabian Sea and the adjoining land regions during the peak of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The strengthening of monsoon low‐level jet (LLJ) in the northern parts of the Arabian Sea during the break phase of ISM helps in transporting this dry air toward northwestern India. Here, we show that, a weakening (strengthening) of the zonal flow over the northern Arabian Sea can reduce (enhance) the influx of the unsaturated air to the Northwest India and thereby enhance (reduce) precipitation there. The variability in the zonal flow over the northern Arabian Sea is a direct geostrophic response to the variability in the meridional pressure gradient over the Northwest India. The interannual variability in the mean sea level pressure over the region explains the inter‐annual variability of ISM precipitation during July–August over northwestern India. The contribution of El Niño Southern Oscillation in the interannual variability of precipitation over this region is not significant.

Decadal Change in the Linkage between QBO and the Leading Mode of Southeast China Winter Precipitation

Abstract In this study, observational and model datasets are used to analyze winter precipitation and its leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) mode over Southeast China. EOF1 displays a dominant monosign pattern during the last 60 years; however, its major impacting factors have a decadal transition near the mid-1990s. The first principal component (PC1) is related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) after the mid-1990s and to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) before the mid-1990s. An enhanced ENSO–precipitation relationship is associated with stronger ENSO-induced tropical zonal circulation and the westward shift of ENSO-induced SST over the tropical Pacific after the mid-1990s compared to before the mid-1990s. Negative correlation coefficients between QBO and precipitation are evident before the mid-1990s but are no longer statistically significant after the mid-1990s. This change originates from the interaction between QBO’s subtropical influences and the Holton–Tan effect. The QBO’s subtropical influence and the Holton–Tan effect lead to a zonal pressure gradient and meridional wind anomalies over East Asia before the mid-1990s, which further influence the meridional transport of water vapor and precipitation over Southeast China. However, the Holton–Tan effect is enhanced after the mid-1990s. Downward stratospheric polar vortex signals and the QBO’s subtropical influence cause a meridional pressure gradient over East Asia, and thus the relevant moisture flux divergence lacks statistical significance. The above results indicate that the subtropical response to QBO and the Holton–Tan effect should be considered together when using the QBO signal to improve forecasts of winter precipitation over East Asia. Significance Statement Southeast China winter precipitation (SCWP) is often attributed to variation in lower-atmospheric dynamics and sea surface temperature, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Few studies focus on the role of the mid- to upper atmosphere. In this study, we diagnose the influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on SCWP. Both observational and modeling analyses indicate a strong decadal change in the QBO–SCWP relationship, which limits the use of the QBO in seasonal forecasts of SCWP. This decadal change originates from the strength of the QBO’s modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. Our results provide a new perspective on the use of the mid- to upper atmosphere in seasonal forecasts of SCWP.

Stratospherically induced circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario

Abstract. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments (MPA) have been a huge success in preserving the stratospheric ozone layer from being destroyed by unabated chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions. The phaseout of CFCs has not only prevented serious impacts on our health and climate, but also avoided strong alterations of atmospheric circulation patterns. With the Earth system model SOCOLv4, we study the dynamical and climatic impacts of a scenario with unabated CFC emissions by 2100, disentangling radiative and chemical (ozone-mediated) effects of CFCs. In the stratosphere, chemical effects of CFCs (i.e., the resulting ozone loss) are the main drivers of circulation changes, weakening wintertime polar vortices and speeding up the Brewer–Dobson circulation. These dynamical impacts during wintertime are due to low-latitude ozone depletion and the resulting reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Westerly winds in the lower stratosphere strengthen, which is for the Southern Hemisphere (SH) similar to the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the second half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the winter and spring stratospheric wind variability increases in the SH, whereas it decreases in summer and fall. This seasonal variation in wind speed in the stratosphere has substantial implications for the major modes of variability in the tropospheric circulation in the scenario without the MPA (No-MPA). We find coherent changes in the troposphere, such as patterns that are reminiscent of negative Southern and Northern Annular modes (SAM and NAM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies during seasons with a weakened vortex (winter and spring); the opposite occurs during seasons with strengthened westerlies in the lower stratosphere and troposphere (summer). In the troposphere, radiative heating by CFCs prevails throughout the year, shifting the SAM into a positive phase and canceling out the ozone-induced effects on the NAO, whereas the North Pacific sector shows an increase in the meridional sea-level pressure gradient as both CFC heating and ozone-induced effects reinforce each other there. Furthermore, global warming is amplified by 1.7 K with regionally up to a 12 K increase over eastern Canada and the western Arctic. Our study sheds light on the adverse effects of a non-adherence to the MPA on the global atmospheric circulation, uncovering the roles of the underlying physical mechanisms. In so doing, our study emphasizes the importance of the MPA for Earth's climate to avoid regional amplifications of negative climate impacts.

Paradigm shift in the onset phase of the Indian Summer Monsoon since 2000 and its potential connection to South Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean basin has undergone significant changes over the past two decades, and this study examines major shifts in the onset characteristics of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in response to changes in the dynamical and thermodynamic conditions. A thermodynamic index shows that the post-2000 period witnesses an approximately 3-day earlier (May 27) onset of ISM than the pre-2000 period. In the absence of an abrupt and distinct change from the dry to the wet season, the post-2000 era can be distinguished by its early and longer onset process. The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) undergoes a phase change during its evolution, which weakens the Mascarene High (MH) and hence the pressure gradient. The weakening of the MH along with the heterogeneity in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends have led to a weaker meridional pressure gradient over the Indian monsoon domain, resulting in a weak onset of the ISM. Additionally, warming in the Arabian Sea starts earlier than expected. The prolonged duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset process in the post-2000 era can be attributed to several factors. These include the broader ascending limb of the Hadley cell over the south equatorial Indian Ocean, reduced wind shear, and the early development of a warmer Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the monsoon.

Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate

The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales.

The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Abstract. The lig127k-H11 simulation of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) is run using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model. We focus on the coupled system response to the applied meltwater forcing. We show here that the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean is altered in the hosing experiment compared to a Last Interglacial simulation with no meltwater forcing applied. Two aspects in particular of the atmosphere–ocean coupling are found to be affected: Northern Hemisphere (NH) gyre heat transport and Antarctic sea ice area. We apply 0.2 Sv of meltwater forcing across the North Atlantic during a 250-year-long simulation. We find that the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is reduced by 60 % after 150 years of meltwater forcing, with an associated decrease of 0.2 to 0.4 PW in meridional ocean heat transport at all latitudes. The changes in ocean heat transport affect surface temperatures. The largest increase in the meridional surface temperature gradient occurs between 40–50∘ N. This increase is associated with a strengthening of 20 % in 850 hPa winds. The jet stream intensification in the Northern Hemisphere in return alters the temperature structure of the ocean by increasing the gyre circulation at the mid-latitudes and the associated heat transport by +0.1–0.2 PW, and it decreases the gyre circulation at high latitudes with a decrease of ocean heat transport of −0.2 PW. The changes in meridional surface temperature and pressure gradients cause the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to move southward, leading to stronger westerlies and a more positive Southern Annual Mode (SAM) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The positive SAM influences sea ice formation, leading to an increase in Antarctic sea ice.

Interdecadal variation of atmospheric equatorial Rossby waves during boreal summer

The interdecadal variation of summer equatorial Rossby wave (ERW) intensity and its main drivers are revealed from an analysis of interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data, and ERA5 reanalysis data. After defining an index of ERW intensity (ERWII) by the variance of symmetric ERW-band-filter OLR, results of empirical mode decomposition analysis show that the summer ERWII underwent significant interdecadal variations around 1995/1996 and 2011/2012. In the period 1996–2011, the anomalous pattern with colder SST anomalies over the central-northeastern Pacific and warmer SST anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean caused stronger pressure gradients through the Gill–Matsuno mechanism. The anomalies of the zonal pressure gradient in the northeastern Pacific–North Atlantic oceans and meridional pressure gradients in the tropical eastern Pacific and tropical eastern Indian Ocean–western Pacific tended to enhance the ERWs by exciting convergence anomalies around the same regions. In the periods 1979–1995 and 2012–2021, the opposite conditions happened. Results of modeled sensitivity experiments confirm the associated physical processes driving this variation. Our findings will advance understanding of extreme weather or climate events in the summer with regard to the ERW variations on interdecadal time scales.

Explaining Dynamics and Rapid Onset of the Somali Jet through Its Kinetic Energy Budget

Abstract The low-level Somali jet is the primary mechanism of moisture transport for the South Asian monsoon. It precedes monsoon onset over India and shares its key characteristic features such as rapid intensification and slower retreat during seasonal evolution. This study analyzes the kinetic energy (KE) budget of Somali jet region using high-spatiotemporal-resolution reanalysis (ERA5) to explain these key features. The KE budget reveals that in the Southern Hemisphere, the easterly flow that ultimately feeds the jet exhibits a conventional Ekman balance, with KE generation balanced by frictional dissipation. A unique “advective balance”—balance between KE generation in the northward flow and its advection emerges as the jet begins to form near the equatorial region. The fully formed Somali jet exhibits a three-way balance between KE generation, its advection, and dissipation. A nondimensional parameter–boundary layer local Rossby number (Ro) characterizes the transitions across these regimes. The large-Ro regime describes an advective balance under which KE-generating meridional winds become proportional to meridional pressure gradients yielding a nonlinear (quadratic) dependence of KE generation on pressure gradients. This nonlinear relation explains rapid onset of the jet as well as the asymmetry between rapid onset and slower retreat, leading us to propose a simple model for approximating the seasonal evolution of kinetic energy in the Somali jet given the evolution of pressure gradients. In summary, this work shows that Somali jet onset is closely tied to the seasonal evolution of Ro in the region where the advective boundary layer appears. Significance Statement The Somali jet is an important feature of the South Asian monsoon, contributing significantly to enhanced rainfall over the region. We study the dynamics of this jet by focusing on its kinetic energy (KE). Maintenance of the jet at different regions corresponds to different kinds of balances in the kinetic energy budget. A dimensionless parameter characterizes these different regimes of KE balance, which are captured at sufficiently high resolution. The rapid intensification of the jet can be explained as a nonlinear response of KE generation to the seasonal evolution of the north–south pressure gradient. These findings contribute to understanding of the jet and its nonlinear evolution, which is important for accurate representation and simulation of the Somali jet in climate models.

Influence of Mesospheric Gravity Wave Drag on the Formation of Winter Helium Bulge in the Thermosphere

AbstractIn this study, we focused on the influences of mesospheric gravity wave drag on the winter helium bulge in the thermosphere. The related physical mechanisms are investigated based on the three‐dimensional physics‐based Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model. The simulation results suggested that the mesospheric gravity wave drag can contribute to the high amplitude of winter helium bulge due to the intensified summer‐to‐winter circulation in the thermosphere. It was found that the meridional pressure gradient force, which dominates the generation of thermospheric large‐scale circulation, shows an increase when the effect of mesospheric gravity wave drag is considered. The change in thermospheric pressure force is attributed to the mesospheric gravity wave drag related winter‐to‐summer flow in the lower thermosphere. This intensified summer‐to‐winter circulation in the thermosphere leads to the decrease and increase of helium concentration in summer and winter, respectively, which thus contributes to the thermospheric winter helium bulge under the effects of mesospheric gravity wave drag.

Extreme cold wave in early November 2021 in China and the influences from the meridional pressure gradient over East Asia

In early November 2021, China experienced its second strongest cold wave event during 1981–2021. Although the Siberian high is considered the main factor influencing cold wave events in East Asia, it was not extremely strong from 4 to November 9, 2021. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the sea level pressure and the daily temperature anomalies shows a monopole pattern, with a notable negative centre in the southern part of the Siberian high monitoring domain. However, the correlation between the sea level pressure and temperature drop presents a typical dipole pattern, with a distinct negative centre in the northern monitoring domain and a positive centre in southern East Asia. During the November 2021 super cold wave process, the sea level pressure anomalies display a dipole pattern with a higher centre in the north and a lower centre in the south owing to the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The meridional pressure gradient index clearly reveals the non-negligible effect of subtropical low-pressure on this super cold wave process, indicating its possibly essential supplementary role in enhancing this process. The above findings provide a new understanding of its mechanism and long-range forecasts.

Deforestation Drives Desiccation in Global Monsoon Region

AbstractGlobal monsoon system is a major component of the Earth's climate system and carries about two‐thirds of the world's population. How large‐scale deforestation induced changes in water cycle and energy balance may modify global monsoon system and its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we use simulations of 11 models participating in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 to study the response of global monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation to large‐scale deforestation. Global deforestation of about 38% induces annual precipitation reduction of about −15.01 mm yr−1 (Multi‐Model Ensemble) in global monsoon regions and −26.15 mm yr−1 in land monsoon regions. The precipitation reduction is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) regions with decreased precipitation by 16.83 mm in the summer monsoon season from May to September along with weakened circulation intensity. Deforestation causes asymmetrical temperature response in the northern high latitudes and Southern Hemisphere Tropics, leading to decreased hemispheric thermal contrast, which reduces the meridional pressure gradient and weakens the convergence of cross‐equatorial flows into the NHSM trough regions, thereby decreasing the NHSM circulation and precipitation intensity. The deforestation‐induced hemispheric temperature asymmetry also increases the northward cross‐equatorial atmosphere heat transport (c‐eq AHT) that drives southward shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone, which suppresses the NHSM precipitation. Our results show that the drying monsoon region in response to deforestation is fairly consistent among the models implying the adverse effects of large‐scale deforestation beyond the region of land use change.

Import of Atlantic Water and sea ice controls the ocean environment in the northern Barents Sea

Abstract. The northern Barents Sea is a cold, seasonally ice-covered Arctic shelf sea region that has experienced major warming and sea ice loss in recent decades. Here, a 2-year observational record from two ocean moorings provides new knowledge about the seasonal hydrographic variability in the region and about the ocean exchange across its northern margin. The combined records of temperature, salinity, and currents show the advection of warmer and saltier waters of Atlantic origin into the Barents Sea from the north. The source of these warmer water masses is the Atlantic Water boundary current that flows along the continental slope north of Svalbard. Time-varying southward inflow through cross-shelf troughs was the main driver of the seasonal cycle in ocean temperature at the moorings. Inflows were intensified in autumn and early winter, in some cases occurring below the sea ice cover and halocline water. On shorter timescales, subtidal current variability was correlated with the large-scale meridional atmospheric pressure gradient, suggesting wind-driven modulation of the inflow. The mooring records also show that import of sea ice into the Barents Sea has a lasting impact on the upper ocean, where salinity and stratification are strongly affected by the amount of sea ice that has melted in the area. A fresh layer separated the ocean surface from the warm mid-depth waters following large sea ice imports in 2019, whereas diluted Atlantic Water was found close to the surface during episodes in autumn 2018 following a long ice-free period. Thus, the advective imports of ocean water and sea ice from surrounding areas are both key drivers of ocean variability in the region.

Mechanisms for Zonal Mean Wind Responses in the Thermosphere to Doubled CO2 Concentration

AbstractWe explored mechanisms for the thermospheric zonal mean wind responses to doubled CO2 concentration through investigating the zonal mean momentum balance in the thermosphere using GAIA model simulations in June. The analysis shows that ion drag, molecular viscosity, and meridional pressure gradient force vary 3–20 times more than the other forces due to the doubled CO2 concentration. The three forces strongly attenuate each other; consequently, the increase in zonal mean zonal ion drag dominantly strengthens the southward wind (∼15 ms−1 at maximum) in the northern (summer) hemisphere and latitudes north of 35S. This strengthened ion drag was attributed to increased ion density/relative velocity between ions and neutral particles in the northern/southern hemisphere. Southward of 35, the zonal pressure gradient force and the meridional advection of zonal wind strengthen the southward wind by 4–12 ms−1 in total. On the other hand, the zonal wind is mainly altered by increased meridional pressure gradient force (∼15 ms−1 at maximum) caused by a latitudinally asymmetric response of the thermosphere density to increasing CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that the increased ion density in the northern hemisphere is the underlying trigger for the wind responses to increasing CO2 concentration. Furthermore, we show that the meridional advection was mainly (∼70%) due to that of the DW1 tidal component.

Projected Changes of Surface Winds Over the Antarctic Continental Margin

AbstractSurface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean‐ice processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice coverage. However, few studies have examined projected changes in these winds, even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the ocean's response to climate change. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and reanalysis data, we show a significant reduction in the near‐Antarctic surface winds throughout the historical period that continues until the end of the twenty‐first century, amounting to 23% and 7% for the easterly and southerly wind components respectively under the high emission scenario. The most intense weakening happens during the summer season. We find that the weakening is coherent with the trend toward a positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole‐to‐coast meridional pressure gradient, which we term Antarctic Annular Index.

Distinct Mid-Latitude Eurasian Rossby Wave Trains Preceding Strong and Weak Cold Surges in Southern China

This study investigates the large-scale circulation anomalies of strong and weak cold surges in southern China. Results show that the strong and weak surges are associated with a distinct Rossby wave train across Eurasia projecting onto the Scandinavia (SCAND) and Eurasian (EU) patterns. On one hand, the strong surge is preceded by a positive SCAND pattern and a transition of the EU pattern from its negative to positive phase. The corresponding wave train propagates southeastward from East Asia to the North Pacific. This is associated with a strong intensification of the Siberian high, a deepened East Asian trough, and a sharp meridional pressure gradient between northern and southern China; these advect intense cold air masses from Siberia to southern China. On the other hand, the weak surge is preceded by a negative SCAND pattern and a positive EU pattern. The corresponding wave train does not propagate from East Asia to the North Pacific. This wave train has a weak impact on the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and corresponds to weak cold air advections towards southern China. Overall, the intra-seasonal variation of the Eurasian teleconnection patterns is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the cold surge in southern China.

Hidden Upwelling Systems Associated With Major Western Boundary Currents

AbstractWestern boundary currents (WBCs) play an essential role in regulating global climate. In contrast to their widely examined horizontal motions, less attention has been paid to vertical motions associated with WBCs. Here, we examine vertical motions associated with the major WBCs by analyzing vertical velocity from five ocean synthesis products and one eddy‐resolving ocean simulation. These data reveal robust and intense subsurface upwelling systems, which are primarily along isopycnal surfaces, in five major subtropical WBC systems. These upwelling systems are part of basin‐scale overturning circulations and are likely driven by meridional pressure gradients along the western boundary. Globally, the WBC upwelling contributes significantly to the vertical transport of water mass and ocean properties and is an essential yet overlooked branch of the global ocean circulation. In addition, the WBC upwelling intersects the oceanic euphotic and mixed layers, and thus likely plays an important role in ocean biological and chemical processes by transporting nutrients, carbon and other tracers vertically inside the ocean. This study calls for more research into the dynamics of the WBC upwelling and their role in the ocean and climate systems.

Past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation and link to precipitation trend in the northern French Alps

Abstract. Detecting trends in regional large-scale circulation (LSC) is an important challenge as LSC is a key driver of local weather conditions. In this work, we investigate the past evolution of western Europe LSC based on the 500 hPa geopotential height fields from 20CRv2c (1851–2010), ERA20C (1900–2010) and ERA5 (1950–2010) reanalyses. We focus on the evolution of large-scale circulation characteristics using three atmospheric descriptors that are based on analogy by comparing daily geopotential height fields to each other. They characterize the stationarity of geopotential shape and how well a geopotential shape is reproduced in the climatology. A non-analogy descriptor is also employed to account for the intensity of the centers of action. We then combine the four atmospheric descriptors with an existing weather pattern classification over the period 1950–2019 to study the recent changes in the two main atmospheric influences driving precipitation in the northern French Alps. They correspond to the Atlantic circulation pattern dominated by a zonal flow and the Mediterranean circulation pattern dominated by low-pressure anomalies over the near Atlantic, close to Portugal. Even though LSC characteristics and trends are consistent among the three reanalyses after 1950, we find major differences between 20CRv2c and ERA20C from 1900 to 1950 in accordance with previous studies. Notably, ERA20C produces flatter geopotential shapes in the beginning of the 20th century and shows a reinforcement of the meridional pressure gradient that is not observed in 20CRv2c. Over the period 1950–2019, we show that winter Atlantic circulations (zonal flows) tend to be shifted northward, and they become more similar to known Atlantic circulations. Mediterranean circulations tend to become more stationary, more similar to known Mediterranean circulations and associated with stronger centers of action in autumn, while an opposite behavior is observed in winter. Finally, we discuss the role of these LSC changes for seasonal and extreme precipitation in the northern French Alps. We show that these changes in LSC characteristics are linked to (a) the decreasing contribution of Mediterranean circulations to winter precipitation and (b) more circulations that are likely to generate extreme precipitation in autumn.