Decadal Change in the Linkage between QBO and the Leading Mode of Southeast China Winter Precipitation

Abstract

Abstract In this study, observational and model datasets are used to analyze winter precipitation and its leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) mode over Southeast China. EOF1 displays a dominant monosign pattern during the last 60 years; however, its major impacting factors have a decadal transition near the mid-1990s. The first principal component (PC1) is related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) after the mid-1990s and to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) before the mid-1990s. An enhanced ENSO–precipitation relationship is associated with stronger ENSO-induced tropical zonal circulation and the westward shift of ENSO-induced SST over the tropical Pacific after the mid-1990s compared to before the mid-1990s. Negative correlation coefficients between QBO and precipitation are evident before the mid-1990s but are no longer statistically significant after the mid-1990s. This change originates from the interaction between QBO’s subtropical influences and the Holton–Tan effect. The QBO’s subtropical influence and the Holton–Tan effect lead to a zonal pressure gradient and meridional wind anomalies over East Asia before the mid-1990s, which further influence the meridional transport of water vapor and precipitation over Southeast China. However, the Holton–Tan effect is enhanced after the mid-1990s. Downward stratospheric polar vortex signals and the QBO’s subtropical influence cause a meridional pressure gradient over East Asia, and thus the relevant moisture flux divergence lacks statistical significance. The above results indicate that the subtropical response to QBO and the Holton–Tan effect should be considered together when using the QBO signal to improve forecasts of winter precipitation over East Asia. Significance Statement Southeast China winter precipitation (SCWP) is often attributed to variation in lower-atmospheric dynamics and sea surface temperature, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Few studies focus on the role of the mid- to upper atmosphere. In this study, we diagnose the influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on SCWP. Both observational and modeling analyses indicate a strong decadal change in the QBO–SCWP relationship, which limits the use of the QBO in seasonal forecasts of SCWP. This decadal change originates from the strength of the QBO’s modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. Our results provide a new perspective on the use of the mid- to upper atmosphere in seasonal forecasts of SCWP.