Merchant Ships Research Articles

A History of Cold War Industrialisation: Finnish Shipbuilding between East and West by Saara Matala

Reviewed by: A History of Cold War Industrialisation: Finnish Shipbuilding between East and West by Saara Matala René Taudal Poulsen (bio) A History of Cold War Industrialisation: Finnish Shipbuilding between East and West By Saara Matala. New York: Routledge, 2021. Pp. 233. For over four decades, Cold War politics shaped technology and business developments in European and North American military-industrial businesses. Historians of technology, business, and politics continue to debate the nature of these dynamics and their societal implications, and Saara Matala brings a fresh perspective to these discussions with her novel study of Cold War Finnish shipbuilding. She argues that Cold War politics had a decisive influence on Finnish shipbuilders, despite the fact that they specialized in icebreakers and passenger ships—not naval vessels. She also finds that shipbuilding played a central role in Finland's transformation from a fragile, low-cost, agrarian economy in Europe's periphery into a high-cost but competitive European industrial economy with high social stability. After World War II, Finland, a young, capitalist democracy, had to come to terms with the USSR, which had just won the war and demanded Finnish war reparations, including substantial numbers of merchant ships. Finns had to sugarcoat communication with their powerful neighbor. Some observers have scornfully labeled this process "Finlandization" and suggested that Finland could and should have acted differently. However, Matala shows how Finnish businesses navigated Cold War politics to their advantage and gained substantial leverage. After the last war reparations in 1952, Finnish yards continued to supply the USSR with merchant ships. From 1945 to 1970, the majority of deliveries went there, and although domestic and Western European markets increased in importance after 1970, the USSR remained the single most important market in Finland until 1990. For shipbuilding scholars, it is not surprising to learn that shipbuilding was heavily embedded in politics in the second half of the twentieth century. Governments in shipbuilding nations have regularly employed a wide variety of support schemes to counteract the negative employment effects of depressed shipbuilding markets and the rise of Asian shipbuilders. In the long run, however, the center of gravity in shipbuilding moved to South Korea and Japan. In studying the political economy of shipbuilding, historians have focused on the United Kingdom and tended to neglect other countries. Matala's study is a refreshing contribution to this literature, and she gives nuance to the ways in which shipbuilders could gain competitiveness. As Finland balanced between East and West, Finnish shipbuilders secured high-paying Soviet orders with favorable payment terms and partly insulated themselves from the market downturn of the 1970s and 1980s. With the help [End Page 280] of Finnish politicians, including President Urho Kekkonen, they engaged in long, drawn-out Soviet contract negotiations—which differed considerably from normal yard contracting—and Finnish-Soviet technological cooperation. The USSR paid for ships via a special clearing mechanism, effectively paying for them with raw materials, including oil. Finnish shipbuilders had a strong niche focus on highly complex vessel types. Although Matala does not provide any quantitative estimates of price differentials for "newbuilding" prices for the Soviet and Western ship markets, she convincingly shows how Soviet ship demand enabled Finns to build up technological strongholds in niches: even a poor Soviet Union was rich enough to buy sophisticated, Finnish icebreakers. In the late 1980s, the Finns turned to Europe in response to the disintegration of the USSR. Although Finnish politicians claimed not to subsidize shipbuilders, Matala shows how the Finnish government provided strong support, including attractive ship-finance schemes, direct market interventions to secure ferry orders, and reconstruction support in connection with the major Wärtsilä shipyard bankruptcy in 1989. Eventually, Finland harmonized shipbuilding subsidy policies with the EU as it joined the union in 1994 and became "a normal European country" (p. 191). Matala has undertaken comprehensive archival studies in Finnish shipyards, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the presidential archives, supplemented with interviews with former yard managers and U.S. archival material. She did not consult Russian archives but points out their relevance for future research. My only main critique concerns the theoretical framework. Matala applies the lens of a techno-economic system, but she never explicitly...

The Viability of the Term “Seaworthiness” Under the Hague-Visby Rules and the Carriage of Goods by Sea Act 1971

In the 20th century, there has different kind of difficulties regarding sea carriage between the shipper and the ship owner. To reduce such complexities the International Law Association has implemented ‘The Hague Rules 1921’ which helps to govern the rights and liabilities of shippers and ship-owners. However, British Parliament passed the Merchant Shipping Act 1894 in favor of crew and passengers. Seaworthiness is a principle used since the twelve century when it was a moral obligation of a ship owner to provide seaworthy ships to secure the carriage. In 1893 the U.S.A. enacted the Harter Act to protect the shippers by forbidding shipowners from limiting their fundamental liabilities regarding seaworthiness. There are three international conventions in operation governing international maritime transport: the Hague Rules, the Hague-Visby Rules, and the Hamburg Rules. This coursework is going to critically evaluate the viability of the term ‘seaworthy’ under HVR. According to HVR Art III Rule I, shippers have the minimum liability of ‘due diligence’ regarding loss or damage of the carriage goods in the sea. Where as common law maximizes the carrier’s liability. This essay will challenge the duty of the shipper or carrier depending on the ‘onus of proof,’ fire exception and perils of the sea as well as the practicability of seaworthiness according to Hague Visby Rule. However, it will also represent some supporting arguments for the liability of ship owners, carriers, and cargo owners by analyzing the term ‘due diligence.’

О степени импортозависимости торгового флота Российской империи накануне и в начале Первой мировой войны

The article analyzes the scale of the influence of foreign capital on the development of the commercial fleet of the Russian Empire on the eve of the First World War and the resulting restrictions on the use of civilian vessels at the beginning of the armed conflict. On the basis of previously published statistical data and archival documents introduced into scientific circulation for the first time, various degrees of dependence on the import of spare parts of sea and river merchant fleets, as well as the level of satisfaction of the country’s needs achieved by them, are demonstrated. The main manifestations of the critical dependence of Russian merchant ships on a number of German-made components are highlighted. The author concludes that the seemingly catastrophic situation of the maintenance of foreign-made ships was actually resolved, including thanks to the actions of the Russian government and the establishment of a channel for the supply of foreign equipment to domestic ports.

A fast feasibility tool for the assessment of fuel switch in the concept design of merchant ships

Due to the utmost importance of international maritime transport within the global economy, shipping contributes substantially to the emission of pollutants and Greenhouse Gases. Consequently, it is called to reduce its environmental impact, in accordance with the regulations that will enter into force in the next years. In this framework, innovative technologies can find fruitful applications in new constructions, but there is still a significant number of operating ships that needs to be technologically updated. Nonetheless, since these ships may be already in the middle of their service life, revamping operations must take into account the purpose of both reducing pollution and avoiding long and expensive interventions. The sustainability-oriented production is one of the most discussed topics and in this paper, the authors aim at describing the potential technologies and solutions to adapt operating ships to the future emission threshold limits. Then, they propose a tool for supporting energy conversion studies on ships. The tool was tested on an Oil Tanker selected as a case study; different layouts exploiting the use of liquefied natural gas, ammonia, and methanol as alternative fuels were analysed. The considered technological solutions were compared on the basis of both technical and economic aspects. Indeed, technological feasibility and economic viability represent the most important discriminants for the diffusion of such innovations on a wide scale and in particular for commercial vessels employed predominantly in long and international voyages.

International experience of raidership

Raidership is a constant threat to any business that cannot be predicted and completely eradicated. According to analytical data, raidership is one of the most serious threats to business. Its spread is a consequence of the illusions of business owners who are convinced that by exercising total control over business management. These are only illusions. Raidership as a concept originated in Great Britain. This term was used to describe raids by ships that seized merchant ships from other countries. Over the past 20 years, corporate raids have largely depended on the political, legal, and institutional situation in a country. In developed countries, there is usually no active market for hostile takeovers. Counteracting raidership in different countries of the world involves both general and targeted restrictions on share transactions; creation and compliance with corporate governance codes; and adoption of special laws regulating mergers and acquisitions. Not only governments, but also non-governmental organizations are actively involved in developing general approaches to the principles of protecting business entities from raidership. The efforts of state authorities are primarily aimed at improving corporate legislation to ensure that certain standards of competition, disclosure of information about the company, protection of shareholders' rights and equal treatment are mandatory. The business community is focused on developing corporate governance rules and procedures that would be voluntarily adopted by the business community, comply with internationally recognized principles and take into account national peculiarities. This work resulted in the emergence of so-called Corporate Governance Codes in various developed countries. Such a code is a set of voluntarily adopted standards and internal regulations that establish and regulate corporate relations.

Comparative legal study defining the bill of lading significance in maritime transport of goods

The given research paper studies the regulatory normative acts of the Russian Federation and foreign states related to the legal meaning of the bill of lading applying the following scientific methods: dialectical method, the comparative legal and historical ones, systematic, formal legal method and special legal interpretation approach. Particular attention is paid to the legal documents of the United States of America and Great Britain as the legal acts of these countries have had the greatest impact on all foreign legislation related to the carriage of goods by sea in general, and the bill of lading, in particular. The authors highlight the points that require a more detailed study as well as other general and different features of the bill of lading in the Russian Federation and in other foreign states legislation. The problematic aspects of the bill of lading caused by the peculiarities of the Russian Federation historical development are also determined in the article. The studied material allows the authors to propose certain amendments to the current legislation of the Russian Federation: to include the legal regulations of the bill of lading into the legislative codified act – the Code of Merchant Shipping of the Russian Federation while at present they are mainly located in by-laws.

Prevalence of arterial hypertension in Vietnamese seafarers aboard merchant vessels: a cross-sectional study.

Hypertension is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally. It is a major risk factor for major cardiovascular events such as stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, kidney failure, and blindness. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence and some factors related to arterial hypertension on Vietnamese seafarers aboard merchant vessels. Seven hundred eight Vietnamese seafarers working aboard merchant ships were examined at the Institute of Marine Medicine before going to sea during the period from January 2022 to December 2022. It was a cross-sectional descriptive epidemiological study. The following parameters were measured: blood pressure, height, weight, waist circumference, buttock circumference to assess the prevalence of hypertension, overweight, and obesity. Seafarers we directly interviewed about workplace on ships and physical exercise, smoking tobacco, alcohol abuse, and anxiety symptoms to identify several factors associated with hypertension. The prevalence of hypertension in seafarers was 32.9%, prehypertension 26.4%, overweight 32.4%, obesity 13.3%, abdominal obesity 47.7%. Factors related to hypertension of seafarers included: job duration at sea > 10 years, odds ratio (OR) = 8.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.34-17.27); non-officers, OR = 2.11 (95% CI 1.45-2.82); engine room crew, OR = 2.11 (95% CI 1.45-3.58); obesity, OR = 3.34 (95% CI 2.15-5.63); abdominal obesity, OR = 9.12 (95% CI 4.23-18.45); current smoking, OR = 1.32 (95% CI 1.02-1.99); irregular exercise, OR =1.43 (95% CI 1.03-2.18); anxiety symptoms, OR = 1.56 (95% CI 1.08-2.27). Hypertension is a health problem for Vietnamese seafarers. To minimise hypertension, seafarers need to adjust their lifestyle, increase regular exercise and improve psychological issues on board.

Analysis for Decarbonization Pathways for Shipping

As regulations and goals for reducing carbon emissions in shipping become increasingly clear, decarbonization will become the top priority for the development of shipping industry in the coming decades. Currently, the main source of CO2 emissions from marine engines comes from the combustion of fossil fuels, while the operation of merchant ships typically requires striking a balance between equipment investment costs and the efficiency of CO2 emissions reduction. Thus, choosing a more suitable approach for ships is a hot topic of concern. This article summarizes three decarbonization methods, including reduction of energy consumption by speed reduction and air lubrication, using low-carbon and carbon-free fuels to substitute conventional marine fuels, and carbon capture. These methods are analysed for their technical feasibility, decarbonization capacity, safety, economy, and technical readiness. To achieve the short-term CO2 emissions reduction goal, there are various technologies to be applied, individually or in combination. Carbon-free fuels internal combustion engines can meet the long-term goal and its fuel cells will be the ultimate choice for net-zero scenario.

Промежуточные решения суда в сокращенных производствах

The article claims to be scientific novelty. The author's groupings of intermediate solutions in the civil process are proposed. The author proceeds from the identity of the concepts of shortened (summary) and simplified production; the distinction between these concepts is not the task of the study. Among the interim decisions made by the court, the following stand out. Firstly, decisions in abbreviated (summary) proceedings, including proceedings to secure a claim. Secondly, decisions taken regarding the part of the claim include, in particular, an interim decision on the appointment of an advance payment in favor of the rescuer in accordance with the Merchant Shipping Code of the Russian Federation or the Inland Water Transport Code of the Russian Federation. Thirdly, decisions to cancel previously made decisions, which are a stepping stone to the final decision; this group includes, for example, a decision of an arbitration court in the order of review due to newly discovered or new circumstances to cancel its own decision at the first instance. The relative scientific novelty lies in the fact that the proceedings to secure a claim, or security proceedings, are classified as summary (abbreviated), along with simplified, writ and correspondence. Simplified (written and expedited) proceedings are also proceedings on the allocation of court costs. In addition, the article makes assumptions about the relationship between correspondence and simplified production; between simplified and ordered production; between ordered and in-person production. Considerations are expressed on the appointment of a writ of execution, designed to distinguish controversial claims intended for review in the claim proceedings, and indisputable claims, for which court orders can be issued to collect debts.

Ecosystem-based merchant ship ballast water management strategy in Soekarno Hatta Port Makassar, Indonesia

Soekarno Hatta International Port is located in Makassar city, South Sulawesi province. Many national and international ships carry out operational activities at the port. Ballast water on ships is used as ballast to maintain ship stability when the cargo is empty or half filled. Ballast water exchange is still carried out when the ship is docked and carrying out operational activities at the port. This process has potential environmental impacts, because the disposal of ship ballast water is classified as waste. Ship ballast water often contains contaminated oil, harmful pathogens, and the exchange of marine organisms that have different habitats. The purpose of this study is to determine the appropriate alternative strategy in the management of ship ballast water in port of Soekarno Hatta. This research is descriptive qualitative, which is research that intends to describe a phenomenon and the research technique used is SWOT analysis. Based on the SWOT analysis, the management of commercial ship ballast water at Soekarno Hatta Port Makassar is in the first quadrant, namely the aggressive strategy. The position of internal and external factors in the ballast water management sub-sector in this quadrant shows that strengths and opportunities are more dominant than weaknesses and threats. The resulting strategies include: carrying out training and training for ship crews on the importance of commercial ship ballast water management, checking ballast water carried out regularly by stakeholders, socializing the management of commercial ship ballast water by stakeholders, and confirming the rules related to the management of commercial ship ballast water at Soekarno Hatta Port in order to maintain its ecosystem.

NUSANTARA IN FRONT OF MAKASSAR STRAIT: A REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL LAW OF THE SEA

<p>Relocation of the national capital of Indonesia to the Borneo region is not only fraught with considerations of the socio-economic, political, and physical environment. The safety factor is also a very important aspect because the capital city is the center of gravity of the country. Nusantara, the new capital city, directly faces the Makassar Strait which has been designated as an archipelagic sea lane. An archipelagic sea lane must be subject to the international law of the sea, especially the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982. Foreign voyages and flights have the right of normal mode and continuous passage through archipelagic sea lanes. Therefore, they cannot be blocked. The right of passage is not only granted to merchant ships but also to military ships and even submarines. The extent of the security threat to the capital due to the abovementioned legal regime is analyzed by normative legal research, using a conceptual approach to the legal norms governing the sea lane. This study aims to provide an overview of the legal norms that apply to the Makassar Strait as a consideration in developing a defense and security strategy for the national capital, the archipelago. In conclusion, Nusantara in the Makassar Strait must pay attention to the international law of the sea norms in preparing the defense and security strategy for the new national capital city.</p>

ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT BY MERCHANT VESSELS’ VOYAGE MONITORING

Maritime or inland transportation is one of the essential elements of the global supply chain, contributing to over 85-90% of international trade. Although sea transportation remains one of the most important and feasible choices of goods transportation for most international trade routes, the impact on the environment is one of the major issues that need to be addressed. The maritime industry is facing high demands to find solutions to operate in a more sustainable way, to find feasible and viable decarbonization solutions. To comply with IMO regulations, the shipping industry must develop and invest in future technologies. The paper proposes a method of monitoring the voyage of a container ship, having different characteristics, to determine the impact of vessel’s activity on the environment. The research method was applied to various means of operation, such as vessel’s speed, the constructive characteristics of the ship (including those of the propulsion system), or the type of fuel used. For each case, the following are performed: monitoring of fuel consumption, calculation of emissions from ships (with an emphasis on greenhouse gases), evaluation of energy efficiency indicators. From this perspective, the article offers an environmental impact assessment solution for merchant ships, to support the management of companies in the decision-making process, to promote environmentally friendly maritime transport and sustainable development of maritime transportation.

함정 안전성 향상을 위한 품질관리체계 개선 방안 연구

This study focuses on improving quality management system of naval ships to enhance safety. Recently, there were problems caused by the lack of quality management system when building Korea naval ships. Foreign naval ships are designed and built through certification by professional organizations in the commercial sector to reduce budget and enhance ship safety. Merchant ships are designed, built, operated and maintained by the organizations in accordance with the Ship Safety Act. When naval ships are exported, the ordering country requires the certification from the international classification to ensure the safety and reliability of ships. Through this study, as a method of improving the quality management system of naval ships, design verification, equipment certification and construction survey using expertise of the organizations are proposed when designing and building the naval ships.

The Poles in Ireland Against Martial Law in Poland 1981-1983

Aid for Poland during the period of martial law in Poland was organised predominantly by members of the Irish Polish Society, the Irish Catholic Church with the help of the Charitable Commission of the Episcopate of Poland, Polish merchant ships, Irish shipping agents, Irish pharmaceutical and food firms, and generous Irish people. A small Polish community in a short period of time managed to collect in Ireland unbelievable amounts of money and goods. During the 18 months of fundraising, £250,000 in cash and £300,000 worth of food and medicines was shipped to Poland in 20 containers. £50,000 was donated separately by the Irish Government to the Irish Red Cross and the charitable organisation Trocaire. A huge political effort was made to influence the Irish Government to condemn the imposing of martial law in Poland. The Irish Polish Society became a strong and solidified Polish organisation, a united voice for Poles in Ireland and an effective Polish pressure group , supportive for their country of origin and knowing their identity and potentials.

Characterization of degradation and iron deposits of the wood of Nanhai I shipwreck

Nanhai I shipwreck was a large wooden merchant ship (22.15 m in length and 9.85 m in width) built in the Southern Song Dynasty (1127–1279 A.D.) of China, which was heavily loaded with a large number of porcelain and iron artifacts. In the South China Sea, it was found in 1987 and lifted as a whole in 2007. Its excavation provides a precious opportunity to reveal the preservation status of Nanhai I shipwreck. Iron compounds give rise to challenges in conservation procedures and the long-term stability of Nanhai I shipwreck. In this paper, the degradation of the wood and the iron deposits in the wood structure are investigated from the aspects of microscopic morphology, composition, and distribution to evaluate the preservation state of the waterlogged wood. Physical parameters, chemical composition, and the results of elemental analysis, and FTIR analysis suggest that the cellulose of wood is degraded, and the relative concentration of lignin increases. The ash content varies greatly among different samples, and the element of the highest content in ash is iron. The study on transverse and longitudinal sections from samples indicate that the deposits are unevenly concentrated in the cell lumen, middle lamella, rays, and pits of the cell wall. The cell lumen is filled with deposits in areas close to the surface of the samples. The XRD analysis demonstrates that the deposits in wood are mainly iron deposits, containing compounds pyrite (FeS2), siderite (FeCO3), iron oxyhydroxides (FeOOH), and magnetite (Fe3O4). The micro-X-ray Fluorescence mapping analysis suggests that the content of iron is relatively richer while containing less sulfur on the exterior of the sample. The presence of iron deposits accelerates wood degradation and increases the safety hazards of shipwrecks in the preservation process. We hope that our findings can make a modest contribution to iron removal from waterlogged archeological wood and shipwreck conservation.

Analysis of the Concentration of Emissions from the Spanish Fleet of Tugboats

At present, the sensitivity of society towards emissions in commercial maritime ports is increasing, which is reflected in the large number of studies on the control of emissions in them, perhaps because the most important commercial ports are located in cities with high population density. The objective of this work was to determine the greenhouse gas emissions caused by the activity of the Spanish tugboat fleet, studying the tugboat fleet of the eleven autonomous coastal Spanish communities from 2004 to 2017 and their impact on the carbon footprint of the country’s shipping sector. To do this, the methodology used by the International Maritime Organization for merchant ships to estimate the emissions of a tugboat fleet is formalized, and Gini concentration index methodology was applied to the concentration of emissions from this fleet. This has made it possible to obtain results on the distribution of the concentration of emissions from Spanish ports by region, age, and size, as well as to establish the profile of the tugboat port that pollutes the most and its carbon footprint. One of the results is that in the period analyzed, the concentration of emissions from the Spanish tugboat fleet increased if we looked at its distribution by region, and decreased if we look at its distribution by age and size. This is because tugboat activity was very different by region; however, their characteristics related to age and size evolved in a more homogeneous way.

РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЕ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ЛОЦМАНОВ ВНУТРЕННИХ ВОДНЫХ ПУТЕЙ В СССР В НАЧАЛЕ 1930-Х ГГ.

The article indicates that only after the adoption of the USSR Merchant Shipping Code of 1929, it was possible to determine the main components of the charter of inland water transport of 1930, including issues related to raft crews and pilots of raft breeders (Chapter 4 of the Charter). Chapter 5 of the charter established the circle of responsible bodies and the methods of their interaction, and chapter 6 on the issues of the coastline and marinas. The issues of the status, position, tasks and duties of pilots on inland waterways were not reflected in the charter, obviously because these pilots were subsequently included in the ship’s crews or were ordinary employees of various departments, having lost their independent status and separate organization. The resolution of the situation became possible in 1931-1932. with the allocation of water transport in a separate People’s Commissariat. After that, an active process of regulating the activities of river pilots by various interested departments began.

An Improved Ship Weather Routing Framework for CII Reduction Accounting for Wind-Assisted Rotors

With the increasingly strict regulations for the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology of ships, minimizing fuel cost and thus reducing the carbon intensity index (CII) is one of the most critical issues in the design and operation of merchant ships. More recently, many wind-assisted devices, such as rotors, wind sails, etc., have been investigated and designed to utilize renewable wind energy. With the equipment of wind-assisted rotors, the optimization of ship routes becomes more important because the effect of this wind-assisted device highly depends on the local wind field along the shipping route. In this paper, an improved ship weather routing framework based on the A* algorithm has been proposed to determine the optimal ship route and ship operations with wind-assisted rotors. The proposed framework effectively utilizes different sources of data, including ship design, weather forecasting and historical sailing information, to produce a better estimation of fuel consumption under the effect of sea states. Several improvements on the classic A* algorithm, including directed searching and three-dimensional extension, are proposed to improve the routing effect and efficiency. Finally, the proposed method was applied to test cases of a VLCC operating from China to the Middle East and the results show that the total fuel consumption could be reduced compared to the minimum distance route.

Semi-mechanistic analysis of emergency planning zones for 20 MWe lead-cooled fast reactor by hypothetical accidents during Korea's arctic exploration

Small modular reactors or micro modular reactors have been considered as an alternative power source for merchant ships because of minimal carbon emission and a long lifecycle without refueling. Ahead of the operation, however, their emergency planning zones (EPZs) should be optimally set and approved to ensure both radiological safety and cost efficiency in case of nuclear accidents. Thus, the required size of EPZs was analyzed based on semi-mechanistic assumptions for hypothetical accidents with MicroURANUS, a micro modular fast reactor type of 20-MW lead-bismuth-cooled, used to power an icebreaker during Korea's Arctic missions. For meteorological data, actual icebreaker data acquired in 2020s Artic exploration were utilized. The results showed that EPZ sizes, rationalized in terms of stability class, wind directions, and inherent radioprotection design, ranged within the assumed icebreaker boundary. When comparing various regulations among countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency, dose criteria of Korea (10 mSv/2 d) were found to be strictest. Since major contribution to the whole-body dose was from noble gases (over 96%), a high-quality air filtration system in addition to external shielding would significantly reduce hazards. The emergency situation could be successfully controlled without evacuation and sheltering, avoiding overestimated socioeconomic costs.

A Prediction Method of Ship Traffic Accidents Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

In order to improve the inaccuracy of the GM(1,1) model in the prediction of ship traffic accidents caused by large data fluctuations, a weighted average weakening buffer operator is applied to the GM(1,1) residual error correction model to improve the prediction accuracy. This method is based on the modeling principle of the GM(1,1) residual error correction model. Firstly, GM(1,1) model is established based on the original data sequence to obtain the simulated value, predicted value, and residual tail sequence. Then, the residual tail sequence of the oscillation fluctuation is processed by positive value and weighted average weakening buffer operator, so as to establish the residual GM(1,1) model and correct the original prediction value with the residual prediction value; Finally, this method is applied to the prediction of British merchant shipping traffic accidents to verify its effectiveness. The results show that this method has high prediction accuracy in the short-term prediction of ship traffic accidents.