A Prediction Method of Ship Traffic Accidents Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

Abstract

In order to improve the inaccuracy of the GM(1,1) model in the prediction of ship traffic accidents caused by large data fluctuations, a weighted average weakening buffer operator is applied to the GM(1,1) residual error correction model to improve the prediction accuracy. This method is based on the modeling principle of the GM(1,1) residual error correction model. Firstly, GM(1,1) model is established based on the original data sequence to obtain the simulated value, predicted value, and residual tail sequence. Then, the residual tail sequence of the oscillation fluctuation is processed by positive value and weighted average weakening buffer operator, so as to establish the residual GM(1,1) model and correct the original prediction value with the residual prediction value; Finally, this method is applied to the prediction of British merchant shipping traffic accidents to verify its effectiveness. The results show that this method has high prediction accuracy in the short-term prediction of ship traffic accidents.